2月3日，上海国际能源交易中心发布公告称，自2026年2月5日收盘结算时起，原油、低硫燃料油及20号 胶期货已上市合约的涨跌停板幅度统一调整为9%，套期保值持仓交易保证金比例调整为10%，一般持 仓交易保证金比例调整为11%。分析人士提醒，交易者应密切关注市场动态，合理控制仓位，做好风险 防范措施。 物产中大（600704）期货研究院院长助理谢雯认为，内盘原油期货价格大跌，主要原因是地缘政治风险 降温。本周，伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬下令同美国启动核谈判，美国总统特朗普称正在与伊朗接触。同时， 1月底美国天然气期货价格暴涨对原油价格有所提振，但美国与欧洲的天气预报显示气温将逐渐升高， 两地天然气期货价格本周也大幅回落。因此，在地缘局势缓和和欧美地区气温回升的背景下，先前押注 原油价格上涨的资金逐渐撤出。 继周一跌停后，昨日上海原油期货主力合约再度大跌。今天凌晨，国际油价收盘全线上涨。消息面上， 美国至1月30日当周API原油库存减少1107.9万桶，之前一周为增加24.7万桶。 对于下跌的持续性，隋晓影认为，随着利空情绪逐步释放，原油价格短期进一步下行的动力会减弱。后 续需要关注两方面因素：一是美伊谈判进展，若不及预 ...

每经AI快讯，周二（2月3日）纽约尾盘，ICE美元指数跌0.20%，报97.440点，日内交投区间为97.692- 97.298点，整体呈现出M形冲高回落。彭博美元指数跌0.28%，报1188.41点，日内交投区间为1191.57- 1187.31点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ISM reported that the US manufacturing PMI rose from 47.9 to 52.6 in January, marking the first expansion in nearly a year and the highest level since February 2022 [1] Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Performance - The US manufacturing sector has been in a state of low activity for the past three years, with very few instances of PMI exceeding 50 [1] - The January PMI data is seen as a positive signal for the economy, but caution is advised due to seasonal factors and ongoing tariff issues [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the release of the manufacturing index, US Treasury yields reached a daily high, and the dollar index accelerated to a one-week high [1] Group 3: Expert Commentary - Susan Spence, chair of the ISM manufacturing business survey committee, emphasized the need for caution despite the positive indicators, noting that January is typically a month for inventory replenishment [1] - The report included numerous complaints from executives about tariff and policy uncertainties affecting various industries [1]

2月3日，人民币对美元即期汇率盘中升破6.94关口，截至发稿，盘中最高升至6.9378，较前一交易日日间收盘价升值135个基点，创下2023年5月12 日以来的新高。 兴业研究指出，美元指数下行动能尚未完全释放，短线贬值放缓，但上半年仍有下行空间，有望在93-96密集成交区间内寻找支撑。未来若就业数 据走弱、美联储降息预期前置，美元指数或进一步破位下行。 经过连续两个交易日的反弹，衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数2月3日小幅走低。 | < W | | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | O | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | USDCNY.IB | | | | | | | 6.9385 | | 前收 | 6.9513 | 开盘 | 6.9402 | | -0.0128 -0.18% | | 英语 | 6.9389 | 买入 | 6.9387 | | 最高 | 6.9431 | 今年来 | -0.72% | 20日 | -0.61% | | 最低 | 6.9378 | 10日 | -0.31% | 60日 | -2.58% | | 分时 | 五日 | 目K | ...

Group 1 - The international gold price has experienced significant volatility, dropping from $5626.8 to $4423, marking a decline of over 20% and transitioning from a bull market to a bear market [2] - According to technical bear market criteria, a price drop of over 20% from recent highs indicates a bear market, with the threshold set at approximately $4501 based on the peak price [2] - The rapid fluctuations in gold prices this year are linked to expectations of a rebound in the US dollar index, which historically shows an inverse relationship with gold prices [2] Group 2 - There is no standardized valuation model for gold in the global market, making its price movements heavily influenced by the US dollar index, geopolitical situations, and market sentiment [2] - In contrast to the gold market, there are numerous valuation models available for assessing stock market investment value, such as forward P/E ratios and PEG ratios for growth companies, and P/E and P/B ratios for mature companies [3] Group 3 - The presence of a bubble in the gold market can be assessed by monitoring the US dollar index for new upward cycles, central banks' gold purchases, and the proportion of gold in global foreign exchange reserves [3] - The assessment of whether AI has a bubble is based on three indicators: its impact on industry development and production efficiency, the creation of real market demand, and sustained earnings growth in AI-related companies [4][5] Group 4 - The current AI development wave is driving a new technological revolution, significantly enhancing production efficiency and creating substantial incremental demand across various industries [5] - Companies involved in AI infrastructure, including computing power, AI servers, and storage chips, are experiencing continuous earnings growth, indicating real market demand driven by AI advancements [5] Group 5 - The stock market serves as an economic barometer, with stock prices reflecting the operational status of listed companies; as long as market demand persists and earnings growth outpaces valuation increases, the AI sector is not considered to be in a bubble [5] - A potential bubble may form when earnings growth significantly lags behind valuation increases, signaling a need for caution in investment strategies [5][6]

2026年2月3日亚洲交易时段早盘，澳元兑美元围绕加息预期震荡走高，截至发稿报0.6971，日内微涨 0.3455%，最高触及0.6973、最低下探0.6941，昨收与今开均为0.6950，商品货币属性叠加加息预期为汇 价提供短期支撑，交投情绪聚焦日内澳洲联储利率决议。上一交易日汇价受美元短线反弹压制小幅走 弱，尾盘依托加息预期企稳回升，未跌破0.6940关键支撑位，市场对澳联储加息的定价已基本消化，等 待政策声明的前瞻指引给出明确方向。 技术面来看，澳元兑美元短期呈现技术面偏空与基本面偏多的博弈特征。1小时级别形成头肩顶形态并 跌破颈线，释放明确短期看空信号，预示汇价存在回调需求；14日RSI指标报46.7，未进入超买或超卖 区间，多空动能暂时均衡。日线级别上，汇价此前受加息预期推动创近三年高位，短期均线呈多头排 列，但近期涨势放缓，技术面走势更多依赖日内澳联储决议的基本面催化，若决议释放鹰派信号，有望 扭转短期技术面偏空格局。 本次澳洲联储利率决议成为主导澳元兑美元走势的核心变量，市场普遍预期央行将加息25个基点，将基 准利率从3.60%上调至3.85%，这也是2026年澳洲联储首次货币政策调整，加息概率 ...

周一纽约尾盘，ICE美元指数涨0.67%，报97.641点，日内交投区间为97.008-97.733点，北京时间20:00 之前维持微幅上涨状态、持续交投于97.100点附近，之后持续扩大涨幅。彭博美元指数涨0.35%，报 1192.42点，日内交投区间为1187.02-1193.19点。 本文源自：金融界AI电报 ...

美国1月份制造业扩张强于预期，受此提振，美国国债收益率和美元走高。根据美国供应管理学会的数 据，美国1月份采购经理人指数为52.6，高于12月份的47.9，该国经济连续第15个月扩张。市场此前的平 均预期为48.4。10年期美国国债收益率报4.275%，2年期美国国债收益率报3.572%。美元指数上涨 0.3%，扩大早盘涨幅，其中美元兑日圆上涨0.5%，兑欧元上涨0.4%。 ...

Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $4,844.70 per troy ounce on Thursday, down 2.1% from Wednesday’s closing price of $4,950.80. The opening price was 13.3% lower than the high of $5,586.20 achieved on Jan. 29. A stronger U.S. dollar kept the gold price down today. The US Dollar Index (DX-Y-NYB) is up 0.2% in the last day and 0.9% in the last five days. In the absence of fresh headlines related to interest rates, tariff threats, and changing U.S. foreign relations, investors may also be more focused on the de ...

有色金属周五夜盘大幅回落，日内低开低走，午后悲观情绪愈发浓重，沪锡、沪镍、沪铜、沪铝还有铝 合金全面跌停，其他金属也大幅下挫。上周五美国总统特朗普宣布提名沃什出任下一任美联储主席，市 场认为其倾向支持降息，但不会像部分其他候选人那样主张更激进地放松政策，美联储独立性担忧缓 解。叠加美国PPI高于预期，部分归因于进口关税的传导效应，这意味着未来数月通胀可能加速，或让 美联储能够在一段时间内维持利率稳定，美指出现反弹，金属走势承压。与此同时，前期贵金属大涨所 带来的多头情绪外溢对此前有色走势提振较大，目前贵金属受多头踩踏、美联储政策预期转变等多因素 拖累出现史诗级暴跌一幕，期市氛围骤然降温，有色此前受资金情绪推动的涨幅大面积回吐。 **地缘溢价快速回吐，原油系遭遇跌停潮** 周一在缺乏持续地缘冲突支撑的情况下，多头集中离场避险，内盘原油系全线低开低走，盘中遭遇跌停 潮，SC原油、高硫燃料油主力合约双双封跌停，SC原油主力合约报收449.0元/桶，高硫燃料油主力合约 报收2679元/吨，低硫燃料油主力合约午后一度触及跌停，最终收跌5.92%，报收3128元/吨，沥青、液 化气主力合约双双跌超4%。新华社消息显示，美 ...