全球风险正形成双向夹击。中东冲突升级推升避险情绪，美元持续走强压制日元汇率。更紧迫的是，美日关 税谈判陷入僵局，特朗普政府威胁的汽车关税犹如悬顶之剑。Lazard首席策略师RonaldTemple发出警示：美联 储2025年可能完全不会降息，这与市场预期的两次降息形成尖锐对立。 政策声明发布后，外汇市场剧烈震荡。美元/日元早盘冲高至145.11，却在90分钟内急坠至144.40区间。此番波 动凸显交易员对政策转向的敏感——尽管缩减购债规模放缓，但央行整体紧缩基调未变。 植田和男行长随后的记者会成为焦点。澳洲联邦银行外汇策略师CarolKong指出："在贸易摩擦加剧背景下， 行长对通胀趋势的表述将成为预判加息时机的关键线索。"日本央行特别承诺，若长期利率异动将灵活应对， 甚至重启购债，这一防御性条款暗示对市场波动的深度忧虑。 当美联储鹰派立场遭遇日本政策转向，全球两大央行的战略分野正在形成。日本央行在声明中预留政策审查 窗口，明确将在2026年6月评估购债计划。随着地缘政治风险与贸易保护主义双重夹击，植田和男今日的每一 个表态，都可能成为引爆国际金融市场的新引信。 日本央行今日宣布维持短期利率于0.5%不变，同 ...

七国集团峰会期间，日本首相石破茂与美国总统特朗普未能就贸易协议达成突破，这场持续两个月的关 税博弈正将日本经济推向更危险的境地。当25%的汽车关税与50%的钢铁铝材关税如达摩克利斯之剑高 悬，日本经济支柱产业已站在悬崖边缘。 日本试图用经济逻辑说服华盛顿：作为美国最大外资来源国，日本累计7830亿美元的对美投资直接关联 着480万个就业岗位。但特朗普政府对贸易逆差的执念，正让这种经济共生关系面临考验。当石破茂承 诺将对美投资提升至1万亿美元时，他或许未曾料到，这场始于经济议题的谈判，最终将演变为对日本 经济战略定力的终极测试。 在这场没有赢家的关税博弈中，日本经济正站在十字路口。是坚守底线承受关税冲击，还是妥协让步换 取短期安宁？这个问题的答案，不仅将决定日本汽车的出口命运，更将检验东亚经济体在贸易保护主义 浪潮中的生存智慧。 这场失败的谈判远不止于经贸层面。随着参议院选举进入倒计时，石破茂政府正面临双重考验：既要应 对美国步步紧逼的关税大棒，又要承受国内选民对谈判成果的审视。首相曾将此次峰会描绘为"里程碑 式突破"，但现实是双方在关键议题上的根本分歧仍未消弭。最新民调显示，62%的日本民众要求政府 坚守底线 ...

"我们将向其他国家加征关税，让美国人富起来！" 2025年1月，美国总统特朗普在就职演讲中，曾如是声言。 从年初到入夏，美国政府一直试图向选民兑现竞选承诺。但事与愿违，这个夏天，美国经济恐怕要"凉 凉"了。 毕马威会计师事务所最近发布的一份消费者调查显示，受关税影响，50%的美国消费者正在削减购买 量，49%的消费者正在积极寻找优惠和折扣。许多美国人表示，这个夏天他们虽然还会选择旅行，但在 其他方面已经削减了个人支出。 第三"凉"，凉在信心。 第一"凉"，凉在旅游业。 英国牛津经济研究院下属的旅游经济学公司发布数据显示，受美国政府"对等关税"等政策影响，2025年 美国国际入境旅客数量将下降8.7%，国际旅客今年在美国花销将比去年少85亿美元。旅游分析机构的 最新报告显示，这是自2013年以来，美国面临的最严重的夏季旅游低谷。 旅游不仅是一张门票，餐饮、交通、住宿，还有周边产品背后的制造业，都与旅游息息相关。《财富》 杂志认为，外国游客赴美人数下滑，或将使大量工作岗位和重要税收收入面临风险。 美国政府的边境管控和滥施关税的举动早已招致大量贸易伙伴的不满，美国的国际形象受损严重，外国 游客将美国从海外旅行目的地 ...

美国白宫：美国计划对英国汽车进口设定年度配额为10万辆，关税税率为10%。 ...

6月16日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍5月份国民经济运行情况。从主要指标来看，工业、服务业、消 费、投资等均保持增长。外贸顶住压力，保持平稳增长。 其中，消费和服务业两项增速比上月有所加快，显示出在一系列促消费政策带动下，国内消费潜力得到 释放。工业增加值平稳较快增长，固定资产投资继续扩大。房地产继续朝止跌回稳的方向迈进。 全年即将过半，上半年GDP将于下月中旬揭晓。"作为数据生产者，又来进行预测，本身是存在一定矛 盾的。"国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖表示，统计部门一般不做这方面预 测，但从整个经济运行情况来看，全年经济仍有较好支撑，上半年有望保持总体平稳、稳中有进的发展 态势。 宏观政策持续发力，为经济平稳运行提供支撑 主要指标中，消费和服务业两项增速均比上月有所加快。5月份，社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.4%， 增速比上月加快1.3个百分点。全国服务业生产指数同比增长6.2%，比上月加快0.2个百分点。 "从5月份相关指标看，宏观政策持续发力，为经济平稳运行提供了重要支撑。"付凌晖表示。 以消费品以旧换新政策为例，在政策带动下，5月份，家用电器和音像器材类、通讯器材类、文化办公 用品 ...

中韩汇率联动越来越紧，人民币一动，韩元也跟着抖。 6月16日周一，韩国央行发布的一项研究指出，韩国得盯紧人民币汇率走势，特别是在贸易战引发的全球不确定性时期，因为人 民币的涨跌很可能会影响韩元的走势。 研究显示，韩元和人民币之间的联动关系很强，自2018年以来二者的相关性平均约为0.6。有些时候这种关系更明显，包括 2018–2019年中美贸易摩擦升级，2022年2月至2023年4月美联储激进加息周期，2024年特朗普再次竞选成功后政策预期的变化。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特 定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 周一，韩元兑美元一度涨超1%。离岸人民币小幅上涨0.15%。 风险提示及免责条款 韩国央行经济学家Cho Sangheum在发布会上解释称，韩元与人民币联动性增强的核心原因，是两国在对美元汇率上的共同敞 口，以及中韩之间深度交织的贸易关系。 该研究还指出，如果特朗普在第二任期内推动更强硬的贸易保护政策，韩元对人民币的敏感度可能进一步提升。这意味着，韩 国的货币政策制定和企业的外汇风险管理 ...

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 16 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 06 月 16 日 ：张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ：021-80106048 ：zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 重要推荐 【浙商传媒互联网 冯翠婷/徐紫薇】理想汽车-W（02015）公司深度：全新产品周期扬帆，AI 征程启航——20250613 重要观点 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 【浙商中药 吴天昊/丁健行】中药Ⅱ 半年行业策略报告：药中银行，内需为王——20250612 【浙商大消费中观策略 钟烨晨】酒店餐饮 半年行业策略报告：东方已晓，序章初展——20250613 【浙商策略 廖静池/王大霁】A 股策略周报：中东地缘冲突会给市场带来什么？——20250614 浙商早报 1 重要推荐 1.1 【浙商传媒互联网 冯翠婷/徐紫薇】理想汽车-W（02015）公司深度：全新产品周期扬帆，AI 征程启航——20250613 1、传媒互联网-理想汽车-W（02015） 2、推荐逻辑：看好 L 系列有韧性的前提下 ...

Global Economic Outlook - The World Bank forecasts a significant slowdown in global economic growth, predicting a growth rate of only 2.3% in 2025, the lowest since 2008 [1] - Nearly 70% of economies have downgraded their growth expectations due to escalating trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainties, and rising protectionism [1] Regional Performance - The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is expected to perform relatively well, with a projected growth of 2.7% in 2025, accelerating to around 4% in the following two years [1] - Morocco shows strong economic resilience, with GDP growth expected to be 3.6% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026, surpassing the regional average [1] Economic Recovery Factors - Morocco's economic recovery is attributed to macroeconomic stability and a rebound in the industrial sector, particularly in construction and energy infrastructure investments [1] - The country benefits from declining inflation and a rebound in domestic demand, although this recovery is heavily reliant on stable food and energy prices, export growth, and relative geopolitical stability in the region [1] Challenges and Risks - Morocco faces high public debt pressure and limited fiscal space, with tax reform effects yet to materialize [2] - Global monetary policy tightening, capital flow volatility, and increasing regional security risks could impact Morocco's economy [2] - The World Bank warns that ongoing global protectionism may suppress investor confidence and reduce foreign investment inflows, posing new external risks for emerging economies like Morocco [2]

Core Insights - The Chinese home furnishing industry is transitioning from being a "manufacturer" in the global supply chain to a "definer" and "leader" at the top of the value chain, facing significant challenges such as trade protectionism, rising costs, intensified competition, and lack of brand awareness [3][4]. Group 1: Breakthrough Battle - The "breakthrough battle" has commenced, emphasizing the necessity for a green revolution in the industry [4]. - China has become the world's largest furniture producer and exporter, with over 10.43 million home furnishing enterprises nationwide, and Guangdong alone has 1.045 million, contributing to 40% of the national output [4]. - In 2024, China's home furnishing and accessories export value is projected to reach 483 billion RMB, a 7% year-on-year increase, while the global home furnishing market value exceeded 500 billion USD in 2023, with China's furniture production accounting for over 35% of the global total [4]. Group 2: Environmental Compliance - The industry must confront increasingly stringent environmental regulations from Europe and the U.S., including the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and anti-dumping investigations [5]. - Chinese home furnishing enterprises are shifting towards using natural materials and increasing investments in environmentally friendly and biodegradable materials, transforming compliance into a core competitive advantage [5]. - In 2024, there were no incidents of Chinese home furnishings being returned due to non-compliance with global standards, establishing a benchmark for sustainable home furnishing [5]. Group 3: Brand Strategy - Chinese home furnishing companies are moving away from a "one-size-fits-all" approach, focusing on niche markets such as smart home products, health sleep solutions, outdoor leisure, and designer brands [6]. - By leveraging clear strategies and precise positioning, companies are building unique brand images and narratives, utilizing social media and collaborations with KOLs and KOCs for effective content marketing [6]. - There is a concerted effort to promote traditional Chinese furniture and craftsmanship, creating integrated online and offline brand communities to cultivate loyal customer bases in Western markets [6]. Group 4: Digital Transformation - Digitalization is being positioned as a core strategy across the entire value chain of design, manufacturing, and marketing services in the home furnishing industry [7]. - The industry boasts the most complete supply chain cluster globally, with a large pool of engineers and craftsmen, aiming to become the definers of global home furnishing consumption trends [7]. - The goal is to cultivate 5-10 globally influential home furnishing brands within the next five years, increasing the market share in the mid to high-end segments to over 35% and steadily raising the share of global home furnishing trade to over 40% [7].

Group 1 - The sixth Qingdao Summit for Multinational Company Leaders will be held from June 18 to 20, 2025, focusing on "Multinational Companies and China: Linking the World for Win-Win Cooperation" [1] - The annual report titled "Multinational Companies in China" will highlight the commonalities and benefits that multinational companies have gained from the Chinese economy, emphasizing their role in enhancing China's open economy and modern industrial system [1][2] - The report will also analyze the current global investment landscape, noting challenges such as trade protectionism and unilateralism, while recognizing positive developments in investment agreements at multilateral and regional levels [2] Group 2 - The report identifies seven aspects of new opportunities for multinational companies investing in China, including certainty, security, openness, scale, convenience, growth, and profitability, supported by a stable policy environment and a comprehensive supply chain [2][3] - It emphasizes the importance of digital economy and green technology as new avenues for investment, providing a broad platform for technological iteration and business model innovation [3] - Recommendations will be made for multinational companies to adjust their investment strategies, deepen long-term cooperation, and leverage local innovations to enhance global business upgrades, aiming for a win-win development model [3]