欧盟的贸易谈判代表或许正为与特朗普政府达成协议而弹冠相庆。然而，如果将此视为胜利，试问怎样 的结果才算失败? 智通财经APP获悉，美国总统与欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩上周日共同宣布的这项协议，确实让金融市场 和欧洲商界领袖如释重负。欧盟主要出口商现在可以按照15%的对美出口关税来制定投资与商业计划 ——这远低于特朗普此前威胁的30%惩罚性关税(更早时甚至扬言征收50%)。尤为关键的是，该税率适 用于欧洲汽车(与日本汽车共同免于25%的汽车进口税)、医药及半导体产品(这些原本可能面临行业性惩 罚关税)。协议还使欧盟得以暂缓实施已准备好的报复性关税措施，至少消除了部分不确定性。 但这种模糊性也意味着，上周日的声明绝非最终结果。即便按较低税率执行，关税仍将重创美国经济： 财政部长贝森特或可炫耀新增税收，但进口萎缩必将随之而来——二者不可得兼。如果欧盟企业真的大 举投资美国，由此产生的资本流动将不利于贸易平衡。这一切都意味着，欧盟对美贸易顺差(去年商品 顺差达1980亿欧元，部分被1090亿欧元的服务逆差抵消)在未来几年可能不会显著缩减。 而当这位冲动且善变的总统再也无法否认关税的破坏性影响时，必将再度归咎贸易伙伴。令人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, confirmed that the deadline for imposing tariffs on trade partners is set for August 1, with no extensions or grace periods [2] Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The tariffs will officially take effect on August 1, and customs will begin collecting them [2] - A few countries have reached agreements with the Trump administration, resulting in tariff levels higher than the new 10% baseline but lower than the threatened higher rates [2] Group 2: U.S.-EU Trade Negotiations - Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, is scheduled to meet with President Trump to negotiate a trade agreement before the August 1 deadline, or face tariffs up to 30% on EU exports to the U.S. [6][7] - The outcome of the negotiations largely depends on Trump's decisions, as he has previously altered terms at the last minute [7] - The EU is proposing a 15% tariff cap on most trade with the U.S., with certain exemptions for specific products [7][8] Group 3: Business Delegation to China - A high-level U.S. business delegation is set to visit China, organized by the U.S.-China Business Council, to potentially restart commercial negotiations [4][5] - The delegation will include executives from Boeing and the U.S.-China Business Council, indicating a significant engagement in trade discussions [3][4]

Group 1 - The U.S. has lowered auto tariffs on Japan-made vehicle imports from 25% to 15%, providing some relief to Japanese automakers [2] - Despite the tariff reduction, industry experts caution that a 15% tariff is still significantly higher than the initial rates and higher than expected [3] - Japanese automakers face intensified competition from Chinese manufacturers, which have become formidable competitors in the global automotive market [4] Group 2 - China's rise in advanced manufacturing has transformed it into a dominant player in the automotive industry, complicating the landscape for Japanese brands [4] - Domestic demand for Japan-made cars is softening, further challenging Japanese producers as they navigate increased competition from China [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce has confirmed that the deadline for imposing tariffs on trade partners is August 1, with no extensions or grace periods [3]. Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The tariffs will officially take effect on August 1, and customs will begin collecting them [3]. - A few countries have reached agreements with the Trump administration, resulting in tariff levels that are generally higher than the new 10% baseline rate but lower than the threatened higher rates [3]. Group 2: U.S.-EU Trade Negotiations - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is set to meet with President Trump to negotiate a trade agreement before the August 1 deadline, or face tariffs up to 30% on EU exports to the U.S. [7]. - The outcome of the negotiations largely depends on Trump's decisions, with both sides having significant unresolved issues [8][9]. - The EU has prepared countermeasures, including potential tariffs on approximately €100 billion (about $117 billion) worth of U.S. products, should the U.S. impose the 30% tariffs [9]. Group 3: Business Delegation to China - A high-level U.S. business delegation is expected to visit China, organized by the U.S.-China Business Council, to potentially restart commercial negotiations [5]. - The delegation will include executives from Boeing and the U.S.-China Business Council, indicating a significant engagement in trade discussions [4][5].

马科斯再次访问美国，本以为凭借菲律宾这些年在南海挑衅中国的"功劳"，足以让美国另眼相看，没想 到等到的，却是特朗普加征关税的决定。 菲律宾总统马科斯，踌躇满志地开启为期3天的访美之旅，对于这趟行程，马科斯所图甚大，不仅要让 美国"网开一面"，对菲律宾施加低关税；还要和美国加强军事绑定，以便日后继续在南海"兴风作浪"。 但菲律宾没想到的是，两个核心诉求，美方一个都没答应。 【马科斯这趟访美行程算是白来一趟】 说它不出所料，是因为美国"割韭菜"时，哪里有什么"情面"可言，一向是专挑"软柿子"捏，菲律宾显然 就是一个标准的"软柿子"。 "杀人诛心"的是，在接受中国记者采访时，特朗普当着马科斯的面表示，他完全不介意菲律宾与中国友 好相处，现在美国与中国的关系非常好，贸易合作进展顺利，他很期待在不久的将来访问中国。 一旁的马科斯听到这种回答，不知心里究竟作何感想，但无论马科斯怎么想，美国的关税大棒，是真真 切切地砸在了菲律宾身上。 别看"19%关税"这个数字，看着和越南、印尼处于同一水平，但这对菲律宾脆弱的经济简直是雪上加 霜。 菲律宾经济底子薄，高度依赖这些劳动密集型和资源型产品出口美国，19%的关税，意味着出口受阻 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump announced a 35% tariff on Serbian imports starting August 1, raising concerns among Serbian export companies, particularly those in the aluminum sector already facing a 50% tariff [1] - The general manager of a major Serbian aluminum company stated that 90% of their products are for export, with 70% of that going to the U.S., and the new tariffs could eliminate all profits from U.S. sales, making business unprofitable [2] - The Serbian Chamber of Commerce criticized the U.S. tariffs as unreasonable, highlighting a trade deficit with the U.S. of 60 million euros, contrary to U.S. claims of a trade surplus [3] Group 2 - The Serbian aluminum company is exploring alternative markets outside the U.S., focusing on nearby European markets, the Balkans, and local markets, while also signing contracts with Chinese companies [2] - The Serbian Chamber of Commerce emphasized the unpredictability of U.S. tariff policies, which could deter investment and negatively impact consumers [3] - The Serbian Chamber of Commerce called for a diversified market strategy to reduce reliance on the U.S. market, as unpredictability is detrimental to businesses [3]

美国总统特朗普：与加拿大合作并不顺利。可能对加拿大单方面征收关税。 ...

澳大利亚虽然心有不满，但依然选择低调处理，没有采取任何反制措施，毕竟还要为澳大利亚的牧场主 考虑，不愿真的得罪美国。 澳大利亚农业部长周四宣布，将解除对美国牛肉进口的生物安全限制。鉴于美国关税政策的最后期限临 近，市场一致认为这与特朗普今年4月对澳大利亚征收关税时表达的不满有关。然而，澳大利亚政府表 示，这项将于周一生效的决定与与美国的贸易谈判无关，而是十年审查的结果。 自2003年在美国首次发现疯牛病病例以来，澳大利亚便停止进口美国牛肉，不过这一限制在2019年有所 放宽。澳大利亚去年的牛肉进口量相对较少，约为3500万澳元，其中只有200万澳元来自美国。 对澳大利亚来说，本国的牛肉在生产方面完全能够自给自足，任何美国牛肉的进口都不太可能对澳大利 亚市场产生任何影响，因此禁令的影响不大。反而美国因无法满足自身需求，对澳大利亚的牛肉需求极 大。 数据显示，澳大利亚去年对美国出口了高达43亿澳元(约合28亿美元)的牛肉，成为澳大利亚对美国最大 的出口产品，美国亦超过中国成为澳大利亚牛肉出口的第一大市场。 这一系列的反差贸易额在今年4月引起了特朗普的关注，他不仅对澳大利亚的行为进行了批评——"澳大 利亚去年卖给美 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices fell on July 24, following a decline in US copper futures, amid increasing uncertainty as the deadline for US tariffs on copper imports approaches [1] - The three-month LME copper closed at $9,877.00 per ton, down $53.50 or 0.54% [2] - COMEX copper also decreased by 0.5% to $5.7925 per pound, after reaching a high of $5.9585 [3] Group 2 - The premium of COMEX copper over LME copper remains stable at 29%, still below the proposed 50% import tariff by President Trump [3] - Analysts suggest that any changes to Trump's tariff policy could lead to a decrease in the COMEX copper premium [3] - Over the past four months, copper inflows into COMEX warehouses increased by 163%, but the inflow has recently slowed down [4] Group 3 - The focus of the metal market is not only on the upcoming US copper tariff deadline but also on the upcoming US-China trade talks and investigations into key mineral imports [4] - Other base metals also experienced declines, with LME three-month aluminum down $4.00 (0.15%) and three-month zinc down $18.50 (0.65%) [4] - LME three-month tin fell by $227.00 (0.65%), closing at $34,626.00 per ton, after reaching a four-month high of $35,100.00 [4]

周四，欧洲央行将其基准利率维持在2%不变，以等待欧盟与美国贸易关系走向的更多明确信号。 这一决定在经济学家的普遍预期之内，此前欧洲央行行长拉加德上个月曾表示，该央行已"接近完成"其最新的降息周期，并强烈暗示决策者将转向"观望"策 略。 欧洲央行称继续坚持"逐次会议"的方针，不会预设利率路径，所有决策将以最新数据为依据。 "国内物价压力持续缓解，工资增长放缓，"该央行周四表示。它补充说，部分由于此前的降息，欧元区经济"在一个充满挑战的全球环境中，迄今总体上已 证明具有韧性"。 消息发布后，欧元兑美元保持稳定。 今年6月，欧元区的年化通胀率已降至欧洲央行2%的中期目标。 在周四的声明之后，根据掉期市场所隐含的水平，交易员们仍然预计今年下半年还会有一次25个基点的降息，将利率降至1.75%。 美国总统特朗普本月曾威胁，如果贸易谈判失败，将从8月1日开始对欧盟进口商品征收30%的"对等"关税。 但据知情人士透露，贸易伙伴双方正接近达成一项协议，该协议将对欧洲输美商品征收15%的关税。 欧盟方面强调，其优先事项是与华盛顿谈判达成协议，但也一直在准备反制措施，以便在谈判失败时部署。此类举动可能会推高该货币集团的通胀并阻碍 ...