来源：金都财神A 2，2小时，黄金早间开盘从3368.7美元，跌至3344.7美元再次上涨，当前运行在3354美元附近。KDJ指标金叉，附图拐头运行在超买区域，MACD 指标红色多头动能缩量，短线走势相对偏空。由于日K线站上了中轨，黄金日内的操作倾向回落做多单为主，下方关注3340美元支撑。上方关注 早间高点3370美元附近压力。 【8.4黄金交易建议】 1，黄金稳健上涨3367-3370美元附近空，止损3375美元，止盈看3345美元 2，黄金稳健回落3334-3337美元附近多，止损3330美元，止盈看3355美元 3，建议仅供参考，投资有风险，入市需谨慎 【黄金行情走势简析】 1，从周线走势看，黄金本周探底3267美元大幅上涨，收锤子阳线，TRIX趋势指标死叉，MACD指标快慢线在高位死叉，绿色空头动能增量，周 线走势还是空头，黄金近1-2周有望在跌至上周低点3268美元。上周五是非农，亚盘黄金跌至3282美元附近触底反弹，美盘非农数据公布后，黄金 大幅上涨，尾盘涨至3363美元附近，日线收大阳线，且站上中轨，走势偏多，KDJ指标J线拐头严重超卖后拐头向上，形成金叉，MACD指标绿色 空头动能缩量，日线 ...

其他报告也暗藏警告信号。二季度GDP反弹幅度超预期，但剔除对外贸易影响、聚焦国内最终需求的指 标显示增长放缓。 摘要在周一（8月4日）的亚洲市场尾盘时段，现货黄金表现亮眼。回溯至上周五收盘时，其价格大幅攀 升了74.34美元，涨幅高达2.26%，最终定格于3363.04美元/盎司。经历前一交易日的暴涨行情后，现货 黄金于当前基本维持稳定态势，金价徘徊在3362美元/盎司左右。 在周一（8月4日）的亚洲市场尾盘时段，现货黄金表现亮眼。回溯至上周五收盘时，其价格大幅攀升了 74.34美元，涨幅高达2.26%，最终定格于3363.04美元/盎司。经历前一交易日的暴涨行情后，现货黄金 于当前基本维持稳定态势，金价徘徊在3362美元/盎司左右。就本交易日而言，市场参与者需重点关注 美国6月工厂订单月率数据，同时持续密切留意国际贸易局势以及地缘政治局势的相关动态消息。 【要闻速递】 美国贸易代表杰米森·格里尔上周日在美国哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）《面向全国》节目中表示，上周 对众多国家加征的关税可能会维持现状，而不会作为持续谈判的一部分被削减。 上周美元走弱，因数据显示7月非农就业人数仅增加7.3万人，6月数据下修为增加 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices collectively rose on August 4, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 0.92% to close at 24,733.45 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 1.55%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up by 1.01% [1][2] - The total market turnover for the day was HKD 234.7 billion, with a rare net outflow of southbound funds amounting to HKD 18.092 billion. Year-to-date, as of August 1, southbound funds have accumulated a net inflow of HKD 879.049 billion into Hong Kong stocks [1][2] Semiconductor Sector - In the semiconductor sector, InnoCare Technologies saw a significant increase, closing at HKD 75.15 per share with a rise of 30.47% and a trading volume of HKD 4.733 billion. The company announced a partnership with NVIDIA to promote the large-scale implementation of an 800 VDC power architecture in AI data centers [6] - Other semiconductor stocks also performed well, with Hua Hong Semiconductor rising by 8.69% and SMIC increasing by 2.90% [7] Gold Sector - The gold sector experienced a notable surge, with Lao Pu Gold rising by 6.23% to close at HKD 733.00 per share, marking a year-to-date increase of 179.85%. The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset has been driven by international uncertainties [14] - Lao Pu Gold projected a revenue of RMB 12 billion to 12.5 billion for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 241% to 255%, and a net profit of RMB 2.23 billion to 2.28 billion, up 279% to 288% [16] - Other gold stocks also saw positive performance, with Shandong Gold rising by 10.7% and Chifeng Gold increasing by 8.89% [16] Real Estate Market - In the real estate sector, the number of property sale agreements in Hong Kong for July 2025 was reported at 7,212, a decrease of 0.8% month-on-month but an increase of 37.1% year-on-year. The total value of these agreements was HKD 54.6 billion, down 17.8% month-on-month but up 28% year-on-year [17] - Residential property agreements accounted for 5,766 of the total, with a month-on-month decrease of 3.2% but a year-on-year increase of 54.9%. The total value of residential agreements was HKD 46.4 billion, down 24.1% month-on-month but up 29.9% year-on-year [17] Company-Specific Movements - Zhongke Biological experienced a dramatic increase of 47.76%, closing at HKD 0.99 per share. There are expectations that it may be included in certain indices, which could drive passive fund allocation [8][10] - Conversely, China New City saw a significant decline of 27.86%, partially reversing earlier gains, although it still recorded a year-to-date increase of 26.25% [11][13]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a collective rise on August 4, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 0.92% to close at 24,733.45 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 1.55% [2][3] - The total market turnover for the day was HKD 234.7 billion, with a rare net outflow of southbound funds amounting to HKD 18.092 billion [2] Company Highlights - Lao Pu Gold saw a significant rebound, closing at HKD 733.00 per share, up 6.23%, with a year-to-date increase of 179.85% [10][12] - The company announced a positive earnings forecast, expecting revenue between RMB 12 billion to 12.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 241% to 255%, and a net profit of RMB 2.23 billion to 2.28 billion, a growth of 279% to 288% [12] - Bank of America raised its adjusted net profit forecasts for Lao Pu Gold for the next two years by 11% and 6%, projecting revenues of RMB 13.8 billion for the second half of the year, a 178% increase year-on-year [12] - In the semiconductor sector, InnoTek surged by 30.47% to HKD 75.15 per share after announcing a partnership with NVIDIA [6] - Zhongke Biological experienced a dramatic increase of 47.76%, closing at HKD 0.99 per share, with speculation of potential index inclusion driving investor interest [8] Sector Performance - The gold sector performed well overall, with Shandong Gold rising by 10.7% and Chifeng Gold increasing by 8.89% [12] - The real estate market in Hong Kong showed mixed signals, with July's property transaction contracts totaling 7,212, a year-on-year increase of 37.1%, but a month-on-month decrease of 0.8% [13]

黄金传统上被视为政治和经济不确定时期的避险资产，往往在低利率环境下蓬勃发展。Trade Nation高 级市场分析师David Morrison表示，就业数据下修利好黄金，但短期内金价不会突破当前区间。 他认为金价还需要整固一段时间才能获得突破3400美元的动力。他警告，虽然就业数据增加了美联储在 9月降息的可能性，但其也只是一系列波动性较大的数据中的一个。 充满"弹性"的经济数据显然不足以完全建立市场对黄金的信心。Tastylive期货策略和外汇主管Chris Vecchio进一步指出，关税也将产生重大的影响。 他表示，特朗普关税将推动各国在交易中减少使用美元，因此黄金将继续表现良好。之前由于美元反弹 及空头仓位解体，黄金经历了艰难的几周，但这或许是黄金恢复光彩所需要的必要过程。 上周的金价走势颇为动荡，受到美国第二季度GDP增长超预期，以及美联储主席鲍威尔鹰派言论的推 动，金价一度跌破3300美元/盎司水平。 然而，上周五美国非农数据大修再次改变了黄金的疲软走势。花旗银行周一将未来三个月的金价预测从 每盎司3300美元上调至3500美元，并将预期交易区间从3100至3500美元上调至3300至3600美元 ...

截至2025年8月4日 14:16，中证沪深港黄金产业股票指数(931238)强势上涨4.16%，成分股山东黄金(01787)上涨10.78%，赤 峰黄金(06693)上涨8.20%，招金矿业(01818)上涨8.11%，赤峰黄金(600988)，山东黄金(600547)等个股跟涨。黄金股票ETF 基金(159322)上涨3.68%，最新价报1.21元。拉长时间看，截至2025年8月1日，黄金股票ETF基金近3月累计上涨6.76%，涨 幅排名可比基金1/6。 近期，美国非农数据大幅下滑，引发市场对美联储降息预期的显著升温。美国7月新增非农就业人数仅为7.3万人，远低于 预期的11万人，且前两个月数据合计下修25.8万人。这一数据表现表明美国劳动力市场明显降温，市场普遍预期美联储将 在9月开启降息周期。在此背景下，黄金作为典型的避险资产，其配置价值进一步凸显。在全球贸易博弈持续、区域局势紧 张的环境下，黄金的货币属性和避险属性双重支撑金价中长期上行趋势。长江证券指出，黄金股或有望在金价、估值、风 格三维度迎来季度级共振，建议投资者切换增配。推荐关注山东黄金、招金矿业、赤峰黄金、中金黄金、山金国际等黄金 板块核心 ...

美国经济与通胀担忧升温，花旗推翻此前的悲观预测，大幅上调黄金目标价。 花旗周一发布报告，将未来三个月的黄金目标价从每盎司3300美元上调至3500美元，交易区间从3100-3500美元上调至3300-3600美 元。 报告认为，美国经济前景恶化和通胀担忧升温将推动金价创下新高，这一立场与其此前的看空预期形成鲜明对比。 美国经济增长和与关税相关的通胀担忧将在2025年下半年持续升温，这与美元走弱共同作用，将推动金价适度上涨至历 史新高。 该行特别强调了2025年第二季度美国就业市场的疲软表现，以及市场对美联储和美国统计数据可信度的担忧上升。此外，俄乌冲突 等地缘政治风险持续升温，进一步增强了黄金作为避险资产的吸引力。 特朗普政府上周对多个贸易伙伴国实施的高额关税，成为推动花旗上调金价预期的另一重要因素。 据央视新闻，美国贸易代表格里尔周日表示，美国总统特朗普上周对多国加征的新一轮关税"基本已定"，不会在当前谈判中作出调 整，包括对从加拿大进口的商品征收35%关税、对巴西征收50%关税、对印度征收25%关税、对瑞士征收39%关税。 黄金需求强劲增长 花旗指出，自2022年中期以来，黄金总需求已增长超过三分之一，推 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.2% while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.28% and 0.49% respectively [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 932.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 75.7 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - Over 2,700 stocks in the two markets experienced gains [1] Sector Performance - The leading sectors included military equipment, precious metals, gaming, gas, and high-speed rail, which saw significant gains [1] - Conversely, sectors such as innovative drugs, silicon energy, retail, and dairy products faced declines [1] ETF Performance - The gold stock ETFs performed notably well, with the Gold Stock ETF (517400) leading with a gain of 4.06%, followed by the Gold Stock ETF Fund (159315) at 3.74% and another Gold Stock ETF (159562) at 3.59% [2] - In contrast, the S&P Oil & Gas ETFs faced losses, with the leading decline at 3.3% for one ETF and 3.26% for another [1][2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. reported a disappointing non-farm payroll increase of 73,000 for July, significantly below the expected 110,000, with revisions showing a total downward adjustment of 258,000 for May and June combined [3] - The revisions included a drop in May's non-farm payroll from 144,000 to 19,000 and June's from 147,000 to 14,000, indicating a deterioration in the U.S. labor market [3] Federal Reserve Developments - The Federal Reserve announced the resignation of board member Adriana Kugler, which may facilitate the appointment of a "shadow chair" ahead of schedule amid ongoing pressure for interest rate cuts from President Trump and allies [4] - This resignation is expected to strengthen market expectations for interest rate cuts [4]

Commodity Market Overview - Domestic bulk commodity futures mainly declined during the week from July 28 to August 1, with the black series experiencing a high-level correction after reaching new highs the previous week [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil rose by 0.03%, crude oil increased by 2.92%, while lithium carbonate fell by 14.41% [1] - The black series saw coking coal drop by 17.14%, coke down by 10.10%, and iron ore down by 2.43% [1] - Basic metals experienced declines with Shanghai silver down 5.05%, lead down 1.20%, and nickel down 3.69% [1] - Agricultural products saw live pig prices decrease by 2.29%, soybean meal down by 0.36%, and palm oil down by 0.29% [1] - The shipping sector saw a decline in the European shipping index by 6.78% [1] Gold Market Insights - The market's risk aversion sentiment increased, pushing gold prices up, with COMEX gold rising by 2.32% to $3416.0 per ounce, and London gold up by 0.77% to $3362.6850 per ounce [1] - According to the World Gold Council's report, global gold demand reached 1249 tons in Q2 2025, a 3% year-on-year increase, with total demand by value soaring 45% to $132 billion, setting a new historical high [2] - Gold ETF investments were a key driver, with inflows of 170 tons in Q2, contrasting with minor outflows in the same period of 2024 [2] - The supply of gold increased by 3% to 1249 tons, with recycled gold supply up by 4%, although still relatively subdued in the high gold price environment [2] - Analysts predict that gold prices may fluctuate within a narrow range in the second half of the year due to macroeconomic uncertainties, but any significant deterioration in the global economy or geopolitical situation could enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][3] Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices experienced a slight rebound, with Brent crude rising by 1.65% to $69.52 per barrel and WTI crude up by 1.36% to $67.26 per barrel [4] - The anticipated peak in refined oil consumption in the Northern Hemisphere during Q3 is expected to boost crude oil demand, supported by a decrease in EIA crude oil inventories [4] - However, the U.S. EIA reported an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories by approximately 7.7 million barrels, exceeding market expectations and leading to a decline in international oil prices [4] - Long-term projections indicate that OPEC+ may continue to increase production, potentially leading to oversupply pressures on oil prices [5] Agricultural Products Overview - The average price of live pigs increased by 0.22 yuan to 14.19 yuan per kilogram, while futures prices for live pigs showed mixed trends [10] - The second quarter saw a 2% increase in live pig stocks compared to the previous quarter and year, indicating higher expected outflows in the second half of the year [10] - Despite the increase in stocks, the current supply-demand balance does not appear to be overly strained, with future price movements likely influenced by the weight of pigs at the time of sale [10]

Core Insights - Gold serves as a dual-purpose asset, providing both financial security and emotional value, connecting the past and future for individuals seeking wealth preservation and a better life [1] - The 20-gram Water Bay gold investment bar, with a purity of AU9999, is positioned as a stable asset in wealth management, offering a tangible sense of security during market fluctuations [3] - The 1-gram Water Bay gold bean lowers the investment threshold, making it accessible for ordinary workers to start accumulating gold, suitable for children's growth funds or personal savings plans [5] Investment and Collection - The "Falling Flowers and Spring Singing" gold necklace combines investment with wearable art, appealing to urban women who value quality living, while also serving as a tangible asset for future generations [6] - Scientific studies suggest a subtle connection between gold and health, with gold jewelry potentially improving certain skin conditions and enhancing the wearer's confidence, contributing to overall well-being [7] - For beginners in gold investment, starting with small-sized products like 1-gram gold beans is recommended for liquidity, while 20-gram gold bars are ideal for long-term asset allocation [8] Maintenance and Care - Gold jewelry should be protected from chemicals and hard objects during daily use, and regular cleaning with a soft cloth is advised to maintain its luster [9] - The unique patina that develops on gold jewelry over time adds character, often being more valued than its initial shine [9]