美国CPI前瞻：汽车和服装行业价格料反弹，二手车价格或进一步下降 金十数据7月15日讯，据外媒报道，美国6月CPI报告特别重要，因为它将帮助投资者深入了解特朗普关 税对消费者价格及整个经济的影响。关税的影响在6月的通胀报告中将实质化，消费品、尤其是可贸易 商品类别将反映出问题。核心商品零部件（尤其是服装、消费电子产品和家居用品）将受到密切关注， 因为这些产品将揭示企业将多少关税成本转嫁给了美国消费者。汽车和服装等行业的价格预计反弹，这 些行业在5月的报告中录得萎缩，帮助5月份的通胀数据降温。不过，鉴于汽车库存持续正常化和汽车融 资市场信贷收紧，二手车价格可能进一步下跌。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming earnings season is expected to be significantly influenced by tariff-related uncertainties, leading to increased volatility in stock prices, particularly in the healthcare sector [1][4]. Group 1: Earnings Season and Market Reactions - The options market indicates that the volatility of S&P 500 companies on earnings announcement days will be greater compared to recent quarters, with healthcare showing the highest potential for significant fluctuations [1]. - 73% of S&P 500 companies are expected to report earnings before the new deadline for a trade agreement with the U.S., contributing to ongoing uncertainty [4]. - Analysts have noted that the volatility in stock prices on earnings announcement days has been increasing in both the U.S. and Europe, particularly for consumer and healthcare companies [4]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The healthcare sector is anticipated to experience notably higher volatility due to threats from high tariffs and recent cuts to Medicaid funding [4]. - In the second quarter of 2025, the expected earnings growth rates for various sectors are as follows: Information Technology (6.3%), Consumer Discretionary (5.9%), Communication Services (5.5%), Financials (3.8%), Health Care (5.6%), and others [5]. Group 3: Market Trends and Strategies - The current market conditions are slightly below neutral, which may favor a potential market rally during the earnings season, with stocks typically rising in about 75% of the time during this period [5]. - The volatility of individual stocks remains stable despite a general upward trend in the market, with traders anticipating larger individual stock movements during the earnings season [8]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that the volatility on earnings days could be 3.5 times higher than on non-earnings days, compared to a previous ratio of 2.5 times [10].

此前四个月，预测者均高估了CPI读数，他们如今也预计6月通胀将出现加速上涨。家具、玩具、娱乐 用品及汽车等受关税影响的品类涨价，被认为将终结通胀持续温和的局面。 根据经济学家的共识预测，美国6月整体CPI和核心CPI均将环比上涨0.3%，从同比增速来看，整体CPI 和核心CPI预计将分别录得2.7%和3%的涨幅，远高于美联储的目标水平。 关税推升通胀的首个真正信号？ AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 自特朗普在第二任期内发动关税战以来，经济学家一直警告，关税将推高美国通胀。周二北京时间 20:30公布的美国6月消费者价格报告（CPI）或将验证这一判断。 美联储官员与私营部门预测者普遍认为，随着企业开始将特朗普关税成本转嫁给消费者，今夏通胀将回 升。尽管许多企业最初通过提前囤货、牺牲利润率吸收部分成本来保护消费者，但如今部分企业已别无 选择。 法国外贸银行CIB Americas首席美国经济学家克里斯·霍奇（Chris Hodge）说："6月CPI是显示关税真正 开始产生明显影响的第一个指标。" 霍奇表示，"我关注的是汽车和服装，上个月这两个行业的价格涨幅都非常低，这与市场预期非常不 符 ...

Geopolitical Stance - US President Trump expressed disappointment with Russian President Putin but remains open to potential agreements [1] - Trump threatened Russia with secondary sanctions and a 50-day grace period, followed by a potential 100% tariff if a peace agreement is not reached [2] Market Reaction - Russia's RTS Index increased by 2% following Trump's threat of sanctions [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper first declined and then rose, falling 0.2% to $9,643.5 per ton; SHFE copper main contract fell 0.34%. The market is worried about the intensification of trade conflicts. Trump's threat to impose a 50% tariff on copper from August 1st has caused market discussions. From the price difference between US copper and LME copper, the market has priced in 25%. In the short - term, copper may still be weak, and the implementation of the 50% copper tariff will cause strong price fluctuations [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina fluctuated strongly, while Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly. Guinea's implementation of the bauxite index has raised concerns about cost expansion. In the short - term, the near - month contracts will continue to be strong, and it is recommended to buy low and sell high in the 20,000 range. The off - season effect of aluminum alloy is more obvious [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel fell 1.12%, and Shanghai nickel fell 1.08%. The Indonesian government will evaluate the work plans and budgets of the mining and coal industries. The cost support of stainless steel has shifted down slightly, and the overall inventory remains high. The demand for nickel sulfate in July has increased slightly month - on - month. In the short - term, it will still fluctuate, and be vigilant against overseas policy disturbances [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Macroscopically, overseas focuses on tariffs, and some economies have made counter - measures. Domestically, China's June social financing and export data are positive. In terms of inventory, LME, Comex, and domestic social inventories have all increased. The demand is still weak due to the off - season. The 50% copper tariff may cause price fluctuations [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina prices rose, while Shanghai aluminum prices were weak. The implementation of the bauxite index in Guinea and the low inventory support the price. The off - season effect of aluminum alloy is obvious [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME and SHFE nickel prices fell. The Indonesian government's evaluation of the industry and the decline in nickel ore prices have an impact on the market. The cost of stainless steel has decreased, and the demand for nickel sulfate has increased slightly [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased, and the inventory of LME, COMEX, and social inventory increased. The import loss of the active contract widened [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased, and the inventory of LME and SHFE increased [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum decreased, and the inventory of LME, SHFE, and social inventory of alumina increased [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased, and the inventory of LME, SHFE, and social inventory increased [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price and spot price decreased, and the inventory of LME, SHFE, and social inventory increased [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased slightly, and the inventory of LME increased while SHFE decreased [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A master of science, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than a decade of commodity research experience [51]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, an analyst focusing on aluminum and silicon [50][51]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, an analyst focusing on lithium and nickel [52].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the total volume of the financial industry grew. The logistics and transportation in the service industry showed steady growth, with positive year - on - year growth in imports, exports, and exports in June, and the growth rates were rising. The upstream energy prices were volatile, and the prices of some agricultural products rebounded. The开工 rates of some chemical products in the mid - stream recovered, and the real - estate sales in first - and second - tier cities stopped falling but were at a near - three - year low, while the number of domestic flights increased during the summer vacation [1][2][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Production Industry - **Coal Industry**: The China National Coal Transportation and Marketing Association emphasized maintaining safety, scientific production, improving supply quality, and promoting market balance. It will act as a bridge between the government and enterprises to deal with risks [1]. - **Trade Tariffs**: The EU may impose additional counter - tariff measures on US$84 billion worth of US imported goods if the US - EU trade negotiation fails [1]. 2. Service Industry - **Monetary and Credit Data**: At the end of June, the balance of broad money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The balance of local and foreign currency loans was 272.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. The balance of RMB loans was 268.56 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.1%. In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan [2]. - **Foreign Trade Data**: In the first half of this year, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 21.79 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. Exports were 13 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2%, and imports were 8.79 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.7%. In June, imports, exports, and exports all achieved positive year - on - year growth [2]. 3. Industry Overview Upstream - **Energy**: International oil prices fluctuated [2]. - **Agriculture**: Palm oil prices rebounded [2]. Mid - stream - **Chemical Industry**: The operating rates of urea and PTA recovered, while the operating rates of PX and polyester remained stable [3]. Downstream - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities stopped falling but were at a near - three - year low [4]. - **Service**: The number of domestic flights increased during the summer vacation [4]. 4. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - As of July 13, the credit spreads of various industries showed different trends. For example, the credit spread of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry decreased from 54.16 last week to 49.63 this week, and the credit spread of the mining industry decreased from 33.69 last week to 30.03 this week [51]. 5. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - As of July 11, the prices of various industries showed different trends. For example, the spot price of corn was 2351.4 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 0.66%, and the spot price of palm oil was 8944.0 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 2.69% [52].

特朗普在“重要声明”中威胁对俄罗斯实施二级制裁，并给出50天的宽限期，若俄罗斯不同意和平协议，将对俄罗斯实施100%的关税。俄罗斯RTS指数反涨2%。 https://t.co/uBHzsvWuHN外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):美国总统特朗普：我们将宣布所有剩余国家都必须支付关税，无论是20%还是15%。欧盟成员国和加拿大将不晚于周五收到关税函。周一将就俄罗斯问题发表“重要声明”，预计参议院将通过对俄制裁法案。 ...

- The content provided does not include any quantitative models or factors related to financial engineering or quantitative analysis[1][3][5]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced volatility, with spot gold rising to $3350 per ounce after a turbulent trading session on Monday, where it reached a three-week high before closing lower [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce initiated two import investigations on drone systems and polysilicon, which may lead to tariffs, raising concerns about a potential trade war impacting the global economy [3] - U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 30-year yield reaching nearly 5% and the 10-year yield at 4.447%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold [3] Group 2 - Upcoming U.S. inflation data is expected to influence gold prices, with a forecasted rise in June CPI from 2.4% to 2.7% and core CPI expected to reach 3%, which could strengthen expectations for sustained high interest rates [4] - Political pressure on the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates has created market unease, particularly concerning the future of Fed Chair Jerome Powell amid calls for lower rates from the Trump administration [4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is likely to experience a range-bound trading pattern, with resistance at $3365 and support levels identified at $3341 and $3334-30 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests to buy more crude oil on dips, and the price may challenge $80 per barrel in the third quarter [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs International Crude Oil - WTI August crude oil futures closed down $1.47 per barrel, a 2.15% decline, at $66.98 per barrel; Brent September crude oil futures closed down $1.15 per barrel, a 1.63% decline, at $69.21 per barrel; SC2509 crude oil futures closed down 4.40 yuan per barrel, a 0.86% decline, at 507.50 yuan per barrel [2]. Market News - Russian seaborne oil product exports in June decreased by 3.4% month - on - month [3]. - Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast based on supply surplus, expecting Brent and WTI crude oil prices to fall to an average of $56 per barrel and $52 per barrel respectively by 2026 [4]. - Trump stated that the US will send more weapons to Ukraine and may impose 100% secondary tariffs on Russia if no agreement is reached within 50 days [4]. - S&P reported that Azerbaijan's production in June was 71,000 barrels per day less than the OPEC+ quota [4]. - Iran's foreign minister will visit China [4]. - The General Administration of Customs will implement zero - tariff policies for 53 African countries with diplomatic relations [4]. - The deputy director of the General Administration of Customs said that Sino - US trade has rebounded, with the import and export value in June rising from less than 300 billion yuan in May to over 350 billion yuan, and the year - on - year decline narrowing significantly [4]. - As of the end of June, China's broad money (M2) balance was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%; narrow money (M1) balance was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; currency in circulation (M0) balance was 13.18 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12%. The net cash injection in the first half of the year was 363.3 billion yuan [4]. - Federal Reserve's Harker said there is no urgent need to cut interest rates currently [4]. - Powell asked the Fed inspector to review renovation costs [4]. - The EU trade chief plans to hold talks with US counterparts later on Monday [4]. - A member of Iran's National Security Council said that the military agreement on the Strait of Hormuz has been finalized, and the decision to close the strait has not been made [5]. - The US White House National Economic Council Director Hassett said the Fed should be independent but is "very wrong" on tariff issues [7]. - Brazil plans to ask the US to reduce tariffs to 30% and postpone the tariff deadline by 90 days, and will announce reciprocal counter - measures [7]. - In August, the one - way freight for Russian Urals oil between Baltic ports and India dropped below $5.3 million [7]. - The US Ambassador to NATO said secondary sanctions will target buyers of Russian oil [7]. - US President Trump will announce a $70 billion artificial intelligence and energy investment plan in Pennsylvania on Tuesday [7]. - The EU may impose additional counter - tariffs on US imports worth about $84 billion if the trade negotiation fails, as Trump announced a 30% tariff on EU imports starting August 1 [7]. - NATO Secretary - General Rutte said that countries will quickly transport equipment to Ukraine, and European countries are "stepping up" arms supplies [7]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 2, indicating a bullish view, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [6].