Core Viewpoint - Brazilian President Lula expressed that Trump shows a lack of interest in cooperation and seems to believe he can impose tariffs at will [1] Group 1 - Lula's comments highlight concerns regarding Trump's approach to international trade and tariffs [1] - The statement suggests a potential for increased trade tensions between Brazil and the United States under Trump's policies [1]

美联储戴利：关税的影响可能比我们预期的更为温和。 ...

Group 1 - Canadian Finance Minister Champagne stated that there is no evidence suggesting that U.S. President Trump would agree to reduce tariffs on Canada to zero [1]

欧元兑美元跌0.4%，暂报1.1588。 丹麦经济部长Lose称，欧盟准备在与美国谈判贸易问题时捍卫自身利益。 欧盟必须警惕（美国总统特朗普挑起的关税造成的）欧盟企业所承担的额外税负。 ...

联合航空首席执行官：虽然关税尚未确定，但市场和大多数企业对未来在更狭窄的结果范围内应对方式 有了更清晰的预判。 ...

美联储理事库格勒：鉴于失业率低和关税带来的建房价格压力，将利率政策利率保持稳定"一段时间"是 合适的。 ...

法国兴业银行全球经济与跨资产研究主管表示，"央行的最大资产是公信力，若因撤换掌门人而受损，市场反应将极其负面，""这将引发显著波动"，并称继 任者猜测会进一步加剧美债和美元震荡。 周三美债剧烈震荡，因有报道称特朗普拟解雇鲍威尔，短债一度因降息预期升温而上涨，随后特朗普表态暂无撤换计划。尽管特朗普今年多次批评鲍威尔， 但此次事态升级令投资者担忧央行可能面临政治干预。 智通财经APP注意到，美国国债价格下跌，因市场正消化总统特朗普最新抨击美联储主席鲍威尔引发的冲击波。周四美债收益率曲线全线上扬，10年期国债 收益率微升1个基点至4.47%，30年期国债收益率仍维持在5%上方。 特朗普虽称"极不可能"解雇鲍威尔，但仍持续施压，重申美联储维持利率过高，并拒绝"排除任何可能性"。 华尔街三大行高管均强调美联储自主权至关重要。但利率决策需联邦公开市场委员会多数支持，新任主席需说服同僚支持降息。最新点阵图显示官员对年内 降息路径仍存分歧，主因对特朗普关税影响通胀的看法不一。 本哈穆表示，"我不认为鲍威尔真的会被解雇，但这在目前来说真的无关紧要，因为市场很快就会意识到他被人为地排除在外，并开始预测下一任主席会怎 么做，""无 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. retail sales for June increased by 0.6% month-over-month, rebounding from a sharp decline of 0.9% in May and significantly exceeding market expectations of a 0.1% increase [1] - The data indicates that 10 out of 13 retail categories experienced growth, driven by a rise in automobile sales, which had previously been declining [4] - Consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy, remains a focal point for investors and policymakers, especially in light of concerns over rising prices due to tariffs [4] Retail Sales Performance - The June retail sales data has been seasonally adjusted but not inflation-adjusted, suggesting that the growth may be influenced by price increases rather than actual sales volume [5] - Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services, retail sales rose by 0.5%, with May's figure revised down to 0.2% [5] Consumer Sentiment - Despite the recent uptick in retail sales, there are indications of a pessimistic outlook among Americans regarding their economic and financial conditions, largely due to ongoing cost-of-living pressures exacerbated by tariffs [4] - Some analysts caution that the growth in retail sales may be partially attributed to price hikes driven by tariffs rather than an increase in consumer demand [5]

Group 1 - The US dollar index has recently shown a strong rebound, reaching a multi-day increase, with a cumulative rise of over 2% as of July 17, supported by higher-than-expected US CPI data, which reduces the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September [1][5] - The Chinese yuan has shown mixed performance against the dollar, with the central parity rate reaching its strongest level since November at 7.1461, while the offshore yuan depreciated over 200 points recently [1][7] - The expectation of a weaker yuan is influenced by the uncertainty surrounding tariffs set to take effect on August 1, with the People's Bank of China showing a willingness to stabilize the yuan [1][7] Group 2 - The recent strengthening of the dollar is attributed to reduced expectations for a Fed rate cut, with the probability of a cut in September now at 53.5%, down from 59.3% [5][6] - The inflation data for June indicates that tariffs are beginning to have an impact, with significant price increases in categories like home goods and appliances, which are targeted by tariffs [6] - Analysts suggest that the dollar index is likely to continue its upward trend, potentially reaching 99, with a breakthrough at this level indicating a move towards 100 [6][10] Group 3 - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs remains high, with potential implications for the US economy and the dollar's strength, as increased tariff revenues could embolden further tariff actions by the Trump administration [8][9] - Concerns persist regarding the sustainability of fiscal policies, with expectations that the costs of new fiscal stimulus plans may outweigh their economic benefits, potentially impacting the dollar's performance [9][10] - The ongoing increase in tariff revenues is not expected to sufficiently address the worsening fiscal deficit, leading to potential volatility in long-term US Treasury yields [10]

金十数据7月17日讯，摩根大通分析师Ilan Benhamou表示："美联储不受政治压力影响" 的说法是一个 "神话"，同时，基于降息即将到来的押注，美国股市可能会继续飙升。身为摩根大通股票衍生品销售团 队成员的Benhamou称："当前我们眼前正在发生的事情，几十年来一直在幕后上演。当下的情况与1965 年林登・约翰逊总统与美联储主席比尔・马丁的冲突相似。"随着鲍威尔的美联储主席任期即将结束这 一事实逐渐清晰，投资者将开始关注下一届美联储主席的政策。他建议客户继续做多标普500指数和波 动率指数，这一双重押注的逻辑是：投资者会将更多资金投入加密货币、人工智能等风险资产；同时， 由于关税、通胀及美联储相关的不确定性，市场波动性将加剧。 摩根大通："美联储不受政治压力"是神话 美股或因降息押注续涨 ...