Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The international crude oil market is expected to face a record supply surplus next year due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, even with an upward adjustment of global crude oil demand data for this year and next by the IEA, the demand growth rate has declined [5]. - As the Russia - Ukraine conflict is expected to end, the geopolitical premium is being reversed, and domestic and international crude oil futures prices showed a weak trend on the night of last Friday. The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract is expected to maintain a weak - oscillating trend on Monday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - Cycle Views - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2510 is oscillating [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2510 is oscillating, and the medium - term view of domestic crude oil (SC) is also oscillating [1][5]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2510 is weakly oscillating, and the intraday view of domestic crude oil (SC) is also weakly oscillating [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - The IEA's energy outlook report indicates that due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, and OPEC+ increasing production, the global crude oil market will face a record supply surplus next year. The demand growth rate has declined, and crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic [5]. - With the expected end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium is being reversed, leading to a weak trend in crude oil futures prices [1][5]. 3.3 Price Performance - The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract slightly rose 0.98% to 484.1 yuan per barrel [5].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the petrochemical industry, particularly for polyester and refining companies, suggesting potential investment opportunities in leading firms such as Tongkun Co. and Hengli Petrochemical [17][18]. Core Insights - The EIA forecasts a global crude oil supply surplus of 1.64 million barrels per day for the current year, with adjustments made to oil and natural gas price predictions [4][15]. - The IEA and OPEC have both revised their global oil demand growth estimates for 2025 and 2026, with IEA projecting increases of 680,000 and 700,000 barrels per day respectively, while OPEC expects increases of 1.29 million and 1.38 million barrels per day [8][44]. - The report highlights a recovery in the drilling day rates for offshore rigs, indicating a positive trend in the oil service sector [22][37]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand - EIA expects global oil and liquid fuel consumption to rise by 980,000 barrels per day in 2025, reaching 103.7 million barrels per day, and by 1.19 million barrels per day in 2026 [46]. - Global oil supply is projected to increase by 2.28 million barrels per day in 2025, with OPEC+ contributing approximately 610,000 barrels per day to this growth [12][46]. Price Predictions - EIA has adjusted its forecast for 2025 average crude oil prices to $67 per barrel, down by $2 from previous estimates, and $51 per barrel for 2026, down by $7 [4][47]. - The report notes a decline in refining margins, with Singapore's refining margin dropping to $15.07 per barrel [51]. Industry Performance - The report emphasizes the recovery potential in the polyester sector, with expectations of improved profitability as supply and demand dynamics stabilize [17]. - Key companies in the refining sector, such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, are highlighted as having favorable competitive positions due to lower operational costs and market conditions [17][18].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Polyester Sector Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Zhang Weiwei [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Views - Short - term: The supply - demand fundamentals have slightly improved, but the overall driving force is still limited; the market will follow the crude oil price fluctuations in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the risk of price reversals [25] - Medium - to long - term: The polyester sector as a whole will continue to fluctuate in the low - level range, waiting for the demand to pick up [26] Group 4: Macro and Crude Oil News - IEA expects that this year's global crude oil supply surplus will exceed previous expectations, with supply growth more than three times the demand growth rate. Global crude oil supply will increase by 2.5 million barrels per day this year and 1.9 million barrels per day next year [4] - The US - Russia presidential meeting is scheduled for 03:30 am Beijing time on Saturday. Trump said there is a 25% probability that the meeting will be unsuccessful, and he will promote sanctions against Russia if the talks go poorly [4] - EIA predicts that US oil production will reach a record 13.41 million barrels per day in 2025, but production will decline in 2026 due to falling oil prices. Brent crude will average $51 per barrel next year, lower than last month's forecast [4] - OPEC raises the forecast of global oil demand for next year and lowers the forecast of supply growth from non - OPEC+ countries, indicating a tighter market outlook. Global oil demand will grow by 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026, an upward revision of 100,000 barrels per day [4] - As of the week ending August 8, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 800,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 714,000 barrels [4] - Traders fully price in a 25 - basis - point Fed rate cut in September. The probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged in September is 0%, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 94.3%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 5.7% [5] Group 5: Futures and Spot Prices - WTI crude oil continuous increased by 0.22% week - on - week, while the price of naphtha remained unchanged [7] - PX511 decreased by 1.61% week - on - week, and PX CFR: Taiwan Province decreased by 1.88% [7] - TA601 decreased by 1.27% week - on - week, and PTA spot benchmark price decreased by 0.83% [7] - EG509 decreased by 0.66% week - on - week, and the mainstream price of ethylene glycol in East China decreased by 0.22% [7] - PF510 decreased by 0.84% week - on - week, and the mainstream price of polyester staple fiber in East China decreased by 0.62% [7] - PR511 decreased by 0.84% week - on - week, and the mainstream price of polyester bottle chips in East China decreased by 0.84% [7] - PX basis decreased by 11.83% week - on - week, PTA basis decreased by 51.22%, ethylene glycol basis increased by 24.05%, short - fiber basis increased by 14.29%, and polyester bottle - chip basis remained unchanged [7] Group 6: Supply Analysis - PX: Weilian Chemical's 1 - million - ton device restarted, and some devices are under maintenance. As of August 15, the domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 82.67%, and the weekly output is 693,300 tons. Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 72.03%. Next week, PX weekly output is expected to increase slightly [11] - PTA: Hailun Petrochemical was put into production this week, and some devices restarted. As of August 15, the domestic PTA weekly capacity utilization rate is 75.01%, and the weekly output is 1.3841 million tons. PTA continued to destock this week. Next week, domestic supply is expected to increase [12] - Ethylene glycol: Domestic ethylene glycol supply decreased slightly this week. As of August 15, the domestic weekly average capacity utilization rate is 61.10%. Port inventory increased this week. Next week, total supply is expected to increase, and ports may continue to accumulate inventory [13] Group 7: Demand Analysis - Polyester end: The weekly average polyester operating rate is 86.35%, a 0.14 - percentage - point increase from the previous week [14] - Polyester inventory: Polyester filament and staple fiber destocked this week [17] - Terminal: As of August 15, the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 58.07%, an increase of 2.29 percentage points. The order days of Chinese weaving sample enterprises are 8.34 days, an increase of 1.50 days, and the坯布 inventory days are 29.96 days, a decrease of 1.03 days [23] Group 8: Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: The supply - demand fundamentals have slightly improved, but the overall driving force is still limited; follow the crude oil price fluctuations in the short - term and beware of price reversals [25] - Medium - to long - term: The polyester sector as a whole will continue to fluctuate in the low - level range, waiting for the demand to pick up [26] - Next week's focus: US - Russia meeting, US tariff policy, macro - market sentiment, EIA weekly inventory data, and the operation of upstream and downstream devices [26]

Report Summary - The crude oil price continued its weak trend this week, showing an overall oscillating and weak pattern. The market is waiting for the results of the meeting between the US and Russian presidents. If the US relaxes sanctions on Russia's energy sector, it will strengthen the expectation of global crude oil supply surplus. Additionally, the unexpected inventory build - up in US API and EIA crude oil indicates a fading of the consumption peak season in the third quarter. With the gradual increase in crude oil supply in the fourth quarter and the weakening consumption expectation on the demand side, the pressure of crude oil supply surplus will increase. In the short term, geopolitical risks dominate market fluctuations, and the market focuses on the meeting between the US and Russian presidents. Oil prices may continue the weak trend, and the shale oil cost provides support, with limited downside space. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of WTI crude oil at $60 per barrel [7][51]. - The trading strategy suggests paying attention to the $60 - $65 per barrel range of WTI crude oil prices [8]. Multi - Empty Focus Bullish Factors - Geopolitical risks and the fact that the actual increase in OPEC+ production is lower than the plan [11]. Bearish Factors - Weakening support on the demand side and the potential easing of US - Russia relations [11]. Macroeconomic Analysis US - Russia Presidential Meeting - Trump announced on August 8 that he would meet with Russian President Putin on August 15 in Anchorage, Alaska, USA, which was further confirmed by Ushakov on August 9. The meeting will start at 22:30 Moscow time (03:30 Beijing time on the 16th). Trump said the risk of the meeting failing was 25%, and he would impose sanctions if problems were not resolved. Putin said the US government is making positive efforts. The market has fully priced in the meeting, and if no agreement is reached, oil prices may rebound; if an agreement is reached, it may lead to a phased rebound or further suppression of oil prices depending on the situation [12]. CPI and PPI Data - In July, the US CPI was in line with expectations overall, with a year - on - year increase of 2.7% and a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. Core CPI was slightly higher than expected. After the CPI release, traders increased their bets on a Fed rate cut in September, with a 95% probability. The July PPI was higher than expected, with a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 3.3% [16]. Energy Outlook of Three Major Energy Agencies - OPEC maintained the forecast of this year's crude oil demand growth and raised the forecast for next year, expecting a 138 - million - barrel - per - day increase in global oil demand in 2026. IEA raised the forecast of global oil supply growth and lowered the forecast of demand growth for 2025 and 2026. EIA lowered the oil price forecast for this year and next year and expected a tightening of the US crude oil market [17]. Data Analysis Supply - OPEC's oil production in July increased by 263,000 barrels per day to 27.54 million barrels per day, mainly contributed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but still lower than the production increase plan [18]. - As of the week ending August 8, US domestic crude oil production increased by 43,000 barrels per day to 13.327 million barrels per day, and it is expected to maintain a low - level operation due to profit pressure [20]. - As of the week ending August 8, the total number of US oil rigs was 411, an increase of 1 from the previous period. It has been on a downward trend since April, and is expected to remain at a low level [22]. Demand - As of the week ending August 8, US crude oil implied demand increased by 134,000 barrels per day, while gasoline implied demand decreased by 161,300 barrels per day. The US refinery utilization rate was 96.4%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous period, with limited room for further increase [28][29]. - As of August 14, the operating rate of China's major refineries was 82.65%, up 0.26 percentage points, and that of local refineries was 56.55%, up 0.36 percentage points. Major refineries still have room to increase production, and local refineries are expected to enter a production - climbing cycle in early September [34]. - As of August 15, the comprehensive refining profit of China's major refineries was 832.6 yuan per ton, down 106.23 yuan per ton, while that of local refineries was 367.21 yuan per ton, up 136.31 yuan per ton [38]. Inventory - As of the week ending August 8, US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 3.036 million barrels, and strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 226,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventory increased slightly, and gasoline inventory decreased by 7.92 million barrels [43][47]. Crack Spread - As of August 13, the US crude oil crack spread was $20.89 per barrel, up from the previous week, indicating a recovery in US refined oil consumption [48]. Market Outlook - This week, crude oil prices continued the weak trend. In the short term, geopolitical risks dominate market fluctuations. If the meeting results meet market expectations, oil prices may continue to be weak, with limited downside space due to shale oil cost support. If the results exceed market expectations, it will indicate the next - stage trend of oil prices [51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic energy and chemical commodity sector showed a volatile downward trend. The weakening of the crude oil futures on the cost side, influenced by the bearish content of the energy report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA), led to an expected record - high supply glut in the global crude oil market next year. Although the IEA raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate declined, less than half of that in 2023. As a result, crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. The weakening of the oil price center dragged down the cost support of the energy and chemical sector, causing prices to decline. - Most energy and chemical commodities saw inventory accumulation this week. Futures inventories of fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, polypropylene, plastics, and PVC increased slightly, while those of asphalt and styrene decreased slightly. Overall, the industrial data of the energy and chemical sector was weak this week, with intensified supply - demand contradictions. Coupled with the weakening of the crude oil cost side, the price center of the entire sector moved downward [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Energy and Chemical Sector Overall Situation - The energy and chemical sector showed a volatile downward trend this week due to the weakening of the crude oil cost side and inventory changes in most commodities [4]. Data Charts of Partial Varieties - **Rubber**: Included charts of rubber basis, 9 - 1 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao Free Trade Zone rubber inventory, all - steel tire开工率trend, and semi - steel tire开工率trend [6][7][9][11][14][16]. - **Methanol**: Had charts of methanol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefins开工率change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [19][21][22][24][26][29]. - **Crude Oil**: Featured charts of crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery开工率, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [30][32][34][36][38][40]. - **Fuel Oil**: Contained charts of domestic high - sulfur fuel oil basis, high - sulfur fuel oil month spread, domestic fuel oil production from 2016 - 2025, Singapore fuel oil inventory from 2020 - 2025, global main shipping index from 2022 - 2025, and Shanghai Futures Exchange high - sulfur fuel oil futures inventory [45][46][48][50][53][55]. - **Asphalt**: Had charts of domestic asphalt basis from 2020 - 2025, asphalt month spread, domestic asphalt production from 2016 - 2025, domestic refinery asphalt unit开工率from 2016 - 2025, China's asphalt import volume from 2020 - 2025, and Shanghai Futures Exchange asphalt weekly inventory from 2016 - 2025 [59][60][62][64][65][67]. - **PTA**: Included charts of domestic PTA basis from 2020 - 2025, PTA futures 9 - 1 month spread from 2020 - 2025, domestic PTA unit开工率from 2020 - 2025, domestic PTA weekly production from 2016 - 2025, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange PTA warehouse receipts from 2016 - 2025, and PTA enterprise weekly inventory from 2020 - 2025 [69][71][73][75][77][79]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Had charts of ethylene glycol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic ethylene glycol开工率from 2021 - 2025, domestic ethylene glycol weekly production from 2021 - 2025, polyester industry chain开工率from 2018 - 2025, and East China ethylene glycol inventory from 2018 - 2025 [82][83][85][86][88][90]. - **Styrene**: Contained charts of styrene basis from 2020 - 2025, styrene 9 - 1 month spread from 2021 - 2025, domestic styrene开工率from 2016 - 2025, domestic styrene factory inventory from 2020 - 2025, and East + South China port styrene inventory from 2020 - 2025 [95][96][98][100][103]. - **Plastic**: Had charts of LLDPE basis, LLDPE 9 - 1 month spread from 2019 - 2025, domestic PE and LLDPE monthly production from 2019 - 2025, Dalian Commodity Exchange plastic warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025, domestic polyethylene import volume from 2018 - 2025, and domestic plastic products from 2016 - 2025 [109]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: Included charts of polypropylene basis, polypropylene 9 - 1 month spread, Taiwan polypropylene production from 2010 - 2025, domestic polypropylene downstream开工率from 2016 - 2025, domestic polypropylene warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025, and domestic PP import volume from 2016 - 2025 [111][112][114][116][117][118]. - **PVC**: Had charts of domestic PVC basis from 2019 - 2025, domestic PVC 9 - 1 month spread from 2019 - 2025, ethylene production from 2016 - 2025, domestic PVC import volume from 2018 - 2025, Dalian Commodity Exchange PVC warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025, and cumulative values of housing completion and sales area from 2018 - 2025 [121][123][125][129][131][133].

Core Viewpoint - The international crude oil market has experienced significant volatility since August, with both WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices dropping over 10% from their late July highs, indicating a shift in the market fundamentals [1] Supply Side Pressure - OPEC+ has announced production increases for four consecutive months since April, totaling over 1.2 million barrels per day, with a further increase of 547,000 barrels per day planned for September [3] - This shift in strategy from price stabilization to market share expansion has led to an upward revision in global crude oil supply expectations, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration projecting a supply increase of 2.28 million barrels per day for the year, up from a previous estimate of 1.81 million barrels per day [3] - The anticipated surplus in global crude oil supply has been adjusted to 1.64 million barrels per day, reflecting a broader trend of increasing supply expectations from major energy agencies [3] - The approval for Chevron to extract oil in Venezuela is expected to further boost global oil supply, despite a decline in U.S. oil production [3] - A potential easing of the Russia-Ukraine situation could reduce geopolitical risks, further weakening potential support for oil prices [3] Demand Growth Dynamics - U.S. gasoline demand during the driving season has fallen short of expectations, remaining below 9 million barrels per day for four consecutive weeks, which is below the five-year average [4] - China's gasoline consumption has also shown a declining trend, with a reported apparent consumption of 72.86 million tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.24% [4] - Global economic slowdown is significantly constraining oil demand, with disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data raising recession concerns and weakening oil demand expectations [4] - Seasonal factors are also impacting demand, as the summer peak consumption period is nearing its end, leading to expectations of a decrease in oil demand [4] - Despite U.S. crude oil inventories reaching their lowest levels in nearly five years and refinery utilization rates hitting 96.9%, these positive factors are expected to diminish as the summer driving season concludes [4]

Group 1 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports a record oversupply in the global oil market for next year due to slowing demand growth and surging supply [1] - IEA has raised its global oil supply forecasts for this year and next, expecting an increase of 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) this year and 1.9 million bpd next year, significantly higher than previous estimates [1] - The increase in supply is primarily driven by OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries, with OPEC+ expected to increase supply by 370,000 bpd this year and 520,000 bpd next year [1] Group 2 - OPEC has raised its global oil demand forecast for next year while lowering the supply growth forecast for non-OPEC+ countries, highlighting market uncertainty [2] - IEA's demand growth rate has slowed, with oil inventories expected to accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, surpassing the average accumulation rate during the pandemic [2] - The supply surplus has been a major factor affecting global oil prices this year, with U.S. gasoline demand lower than previous years and crude oil inventories increasing by over 10 million barrels [3] Group 3 - Domestic oil inventories in China are at a multi-year high, with a 7.1% month-on-month increase in crude oil imports in June [3] - The geopolitical dynamics, particularly U.S.-Russia relations, are influencing market expectations regarding Russian supply [3] - Analysts suggest that investors should monitor geopolitical developments, domestic inventory management, and OPEC+ production increases in the short term [3] Group 4 - OPEC+ production increases are expected to exert downward pressure on oil prices, but potential U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts could provide some support for prices [4] - The analysis of oil price trends should consider supply-demand dynamics, financial market fluctuations, and geopolitical conflicts, as well as U.S. political developments [4]

Group 1 - Hedge funds have reduced their long positions in U.S. crude oil to the lowest level since mid-April, driven by rising U.S. crude inventories and OPEC+ production increases, leading to bearish market sentiment [1] - As of last Tuesday, managed money cut its net long position in WTI crude by 9,014 contracts to 78,826 contracts, marking the lowest net long position since early April when tariffs were announced by the U.S. [1] - OPEC+ agreed to significantly increase production in September, reversing the 2.2 million barrels per day cuts implemented in 2023, following the release of U.S. economic data indicating persistent inflation and weak consumer spending [1] Group 2 - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) reported that speculators reduced their net long positions in Brent crude by 20,375 contracts to 240,977 contracts [3]

Report Summary - The overall trend of crude oil prices this week was a one - way downward movement. The market is worried about the US economic recession due to the lower - than - expected July non - farm employment data and the significant downward revision of May and June data. The demand - side support is gradually fading. The possible meeting between the US and Russian presidents eases the concern about Russian sanctions, and the previous premium has declined. OPEC+ will continue to increase production in September, intensifying the supply pressure. It is expected that the oil price will continue to be in a weak and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the support of WTI crude oil at $60 per barrel [8][54]. - It is recommended to focus on the range of $60 - 66 per barrel for WTI crude oil prices [9]. Multi - empty Focus Bullish Factors - Geopolitical risks [12] - The actual increase in OPEC+ production is lower than the plan [12] Bearish Factors - The weakening of demand - side support [12] - The easing of US - Russia relations [12] Macro Analysis US - Russia Relations - Trump threatened to impose sanctions on Russia, shortening the original 50 - day deadline to 10 days. The US Middle East envoy had a constructive meeting with Putin in Moscow. Trump plans to hold a US - Russia - Ukraine summit soon, and preparations for the "Putin - Trump meeting" are underway. The initial threat of sanctions supported the oil price, but the subsequent push for high - level meetings eased market tension, and the risk premium declined [13]. US Non - farm Data - In July, the US non - farm employment increased by 73,000, significantly lower than the expected 104,000, and the data for May and June were significantly revised downward. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September increased from 45% to 75%. This situation has led to concerns about the weakening of the US economy and put pressure on oil prices [16]. US Tariffs on India - Trump signed an executive order to impose a 25% additional tariff on Indian goods because India imports Russian oil. India said it would continue to buy Russian oil. This move will have a limited impact on global crude oil supply [17]. OPEC+ Production Adjustment - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. The market has fully priced in this increase. The key lies in the speed and scale of the increase. It is expected that this round of production increase will be completed by the end of the fourth quarter. OPEC+ still has nearly 3.65 million barrels per day of production cuts that can be restored [21]. Data Analysis Supply - OPEC's crude oil production in June was 27.237 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 221,000 barrels per day, mainly contributed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. However, the production is still lower than the increase plan [22]. - As of the week ending August 1, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 30,000 barrels per day to 13.284 million barrels per day, and it is expected to remain at a low level [24]. - As of the week ending August 1, the total number of US oil rigs was 410, a decrease of 5 from the previous period. It is expected to continue to decline due to low oil prices [26]. Demand - As of the week ending August 1, US crude oil implied demand increased by 1.329 million barrels per day, while gasoline implied demand decreased by 54,000 barrels per day. The overall demand is around the average in recent years [30]. - As of the week ending August 1, the US refinery utilization rate was 96.9%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous period. It is at a high level in recent years, and there is limited room for further improvement [32]. - As of August 7, the operating rate of domestic major refineries in China was 82.39%, unchanged from the previous period. The operating rate of local independent refineries was 56.19%, down 0.66 percentage points. Major refineries still have room to increase production, and local refineries are expected to enter a production - increasing cycle in early September [37]. - As of August 8, the comprehensive refining profit of domestic major refineries was 938.85 yuan per ton, down 38.11 yuan per ton from the previous period. The comprehensive refining profit of local independent refineries was 230.95 yuan per ton, down 5.78 yuan per ton. Major refineries' profits have recovered to a high level in recent years, while local refineries' profits remain low [41]. Inventory - As of the week ending August 1, US EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 3.029 million barrels, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories were 235,000 barrels. Crude oil inventories are expected to remain low [46]. - As of the week ending August 1, the crude oil inventory in Cushing increased slightly, and gasoline inventory decreased. Gasoline inventory is expected to enter a downward cycle [50]. Crack Spread - As of August 6, the US crude oil crack spread was $20.14 per barrel, up from the previous week, indicating a recovery in US refined oil consumption [51]. Market Outlook - In the short term, after the bullish factors of sanctions fade, the market will return to fundamental trading. With the weakening of demand - side support and the increase in OPEC+ production, the oil price may decline further. The cost of shale oil will support the price, and the oil price is expected to continue a weak and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the support of WTI at $60 per barrel [54].

OPEC+增产决定对市场产生直接影响，布伦特原油和WTI原油价格均出现下跌。该组织此次增产将全面逆转此前220万桶/日的减产措施，相当于全球需求的 2.4%左右。高盛预测显示，参与增产的8个成员国实际供应增加量将达到170万桶/日。 市场供应压力进一步加剧，因为其他OPEC+成员国在先前超额生产后已开始削减产量。这种供应端的重新平衡过程，使得原油价格面临持续的下行压力。 分析师普遍认为，今年晚些时候全球石油供应将开始超过需求，形成供应过剩局面。 印度等主要石油进口国开始寻找替代供应来源，向伊拉克、阿联酋和科威特等国询问额外石油供应的可能性。这种需求端的调整，进一步影响了全球原油贸 易流向和价格形成机制。 地缘风险与制裁威胁交织影响市场情绪 美国对俄罗斯能源领域实施新一轮制裁措施，涉及180多艘船只、数十家贸易商和两家主要石油公司。这些制裁包括冻结相关实体资产、禁止交易以及提供 保险服务等。制裁措施的实施，可能导致俄罗斯石油供应出现中断风险。 与此同时，地缘政治因素为市场带来不确定性。美国对印度购买俄罗斯石油施加压力，威胁征收高额关税。印度作为全球第三大石油进口国，每日进口约 175万桶俄罗斯原油。特朗普政府设 ...