冠通期货研究报告 --原油周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 2 发布时间：2025年11月24日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 11月2日，欧佩克+八国决定12月增产13.7万桶/日，与此前10月、11月增产计划一致，明年第一季度暂停增产，欧佩克+八国下 一次会议将于11月30日举行。这将加剧四季度的原油供应压力，但对于明年一季度的供应压力意外减轻。原油需求旺季结束，EIA 数据显示成品油库存超预期增加，但由于净出口增加，美国原油去库幅度超预期，整体油品库存转而小幅减少。美国原油产量位于 历史最高位附近。美国财政部外国资产控制办公室称，近十几个主要的印度买家表示打算暂停购买俄罗斯12月份交付的石油。乌克 兰对俄罗斯炼厂袭击，俄罗斯梁赞炼油厂暂停原油加工，欧洲柴油裂解价差持续上涨，关注俄罗斯原油的出口情况。美国与委内瑞 拉军事对峙升级，美官员称美国将对委内瑞拉开展新行动。利比亚首都的黎波里附近爆发武装冲突。地缘局势引发委内瑞拉、 ...

11月24日24时，国内成品油零售价格迎来年内第10次下调。 国家发展改革委官网披露，近期国际市场油价波动运行，根据11月24日的前10个工作日平均价格与上次 调价前10个工作日平均价格对比情况，按照现行成品油价格机制，自11月24日24时起，国内汽、柴油价 格（标准品，下同）每吨分别降低70元和65元。 本轮调价周期内国际原油价格宽幅波动 本轮计价周期内，国际原油价格呈现先扬后抑的宽幅波动走势。 物流行业，以月跑10000公里，百公里油耗在38升的重型卡车为例，在下次调价窗口开启前，单辆车的 燃油成本将减少106元左右。此外，本次下调落实后，国内实行一省一价的地区92号汽油将全面进入"6 元时代"。 市场人士预计，下一轮成品油调价下调的概率较大。 本轮调价周期内汽油柴油批发市场价格回涨 本轮成品油零售调价周期内，国内成品油市场汽油和柴油的批发价格出现回涨。市场人士指出，虽然周 期内国际原油呈现跌势，但由于前期汽油柴油价格持续下跌，上游整体利润端承压，叠加社会库存相对 偏低，刺激上游挺价意愿增强，中下游追涨入市带动市场成交好转，汽油柴油价格出现回涨，其中柴油 由于刚需支撑尚存，价格涨幅大于汽油。不过，随着天气 ...

近期，国际原油市场多空因素交织，整体呈现复杂震荡格局。展望后市，俄乌局势的演变仍是影响油市的关键变量，若双方达成停 战协议，俄罗斯原油供应约束放松，将加大全球原油供应过剩压力，油价将面临进一步调整风险。 受此影响，市场对美联储降息预期迅速降温。CME"美联储观察"工具显示，交易员对12月降息25个基点的概率预测从48.9%降至 32.7%。美元指数随之显著走强，突破100整数关口，美债收益率也同步上行，对以美元计价的国际原油等大宗商品价格构成压 制。 三大机构月报强化供应过剩预期 11月中旬，美国能源信息署（EIA）、国际能源署（IEA）和石油输出国组织（OPEC）相继发布最新月度报告。尽管各机构对原油 需求增速的判断仍存差异，但在供给持续增长这一基本判断上已形成共识。 美元走强压制大宗商品价格走势 北京时间11月20日凌晨，美国劳工统计局宣布，因部分关键数据无法正常采集，将不再单独发布10月非农就业报告，原定于12月5 日发布的11月报告推迟至12月16日公布。这意味着美联储在年内最后一次政策决策前，将完全缺失10月以来的关键就业数据支撑， 就业数据空窗期的延长进一步加剧了货币政策的不确定性，并显著提升美联 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil prices are expected to experience their tenth decline of the year, with gasoline and diesel prices projected to drop by 70 yuan/ton and 65 yuan/ton respectively, leading to a new price era for gasoline in certain regions [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - The new round of price adjustments for refined oil will take effect on November 24, with gasoline and diesel prices expected to decrease by 0.05 yuan, 0.06 yuan, and 0.06 yuan per liter respectively [1]. - The average price of the crude oil varieties referenced for domestic refined oil pricing is currently at 61.68 USD/barrel, reflecting a change rate of -1.21% [1]. Group 2: Market Influences - The international oil market is facing a downward trend due to expectations of oversupply and reduced geopolitical risk premiums, as indicated by major energy agencies [2]. - The International Energy Agency has raised its forecast for oil supply surplus in 2026 to 4.09 million barrels per day, contributing to the bearish sentiment in the market [2][3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the international oil prices will maintain a volatile trend, with potential for further declines in domestic refined oil prices in the next adjustment cycle [3]. - Factors such as ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade disputes are expected to keep international crude oil prices under pressure, influencing future domestic pricing strategies [3].

转自：期货日报 近期，国际原油市场多空因素交织，整体呈现复杂震荡格局。展望后市，俄乌局势的演变仍是影响油市 的关键变量，若双方达成协议，俄罗斯原油供应约束放松，将加大全球原油供应过剩压力，油价将面临 进一步调整风险。 美元走强压制大宗商品价格走势 北京时间11月20日凌晨，美国劳工统计局宣布，因部分关键数据无法正常采集，将不再单独发布10月非 农就业报告，原定于12月5日发布的11月报告推迟至12月16日公布。这意味着美联储在年内最后一次政 策决策前，将完全缺失10月以来的关键就业数据支撑，就业数据空窗期的延长进一步加剧了货币政策的 不确定性，并显著提升美联储暂停降息的概率。 与此同时，美联储最新公布的10月会议纪要显示，决策层内部存在严重分歧。官员们就12月是否实施连 续第三次降息争议激烈：部分委员主张继续降息以应对就业市场疲软风险，另有多位成员明确支持按兵 不动，而多数与会者认为，进一步降息可能会增加高通胀固化风险，或被误解为美联储对实现2%通胀 目标缺乏承诺。 受此影响，市场对美联储降息预期迅速降温。CME"美联储观察"工具显示，交易员对12月降息25个基 点的概率预测从48.9%降至32.7%。美元指 ...

Group 1: Tariff Policy Developments - The Trump administration is preparing a backup plan for tariffs amid potential Supreme Court challenges to a key tariff authorization [2] - The U.S. Department of Commerce and the U.S. Trade Representative's Office are exploring options under Trade Act Sections 301 and 122, which grant the president unilateral tariff authority [2] - If the court ruling is unfavorable, the U.S. government may be forced to refund over $88 billion in tariffs, but analysts expect immediate reimplementation of tariffs [2] Group 2: U.S.-Brazil Trade Relations - The U.S. has announced the cancellation of a 40% additional tariff on certain Brazilian goods, including coffee, meat, and fruits, while approximately 22% of exports to the U.S. remain affected [3][4] - This tariff adjustment is seen as a significant progress in bilateral negotiations, with Brazil expressing optimism about ongoing talks [4] - The White House's decision also includes the removal of a 40% tariff on Brazilian aircraft parts, aimed at balancing national security concerns with trade relations [5][6] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices have been declining, with WTI crude futures down 1.59% to $58.06 per barrel, and Brent crude down 1.29% to $62.56 per barrel, amid geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures [13] - Analysts suggest that a potential resolution in the Russia-Ukraine conflict could significantly reduce geopolitical risks and lead to a drop in oil prices as Russian oil returns to the market [13][14] - Current oil supply is under pressure, with OPEC+ increasing production while demand is in a seasonal decline, leading to expectations of significant inventory build-up in 2025-2026 [14][15]

【期现行情】 期货方面： 【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油震荡下行 发布日期：2025年11月21日 【行情分析】 11月2日，欧佩克+八国决定12月增产13.7万桶/日，与此前10月、11月增产计划一致，明年第一 季度暂停增产，欧佩克+八国下一次会议将于11月30日举行。这将加剧四季度的原油供应压力，但对 于明年一季度的供应压力意外减轻。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示成品油库存超预期增加，但由 于净出口增加，美国原油去库幅度超预期，整体油品库存转而小幅减少。美国原油产量位于历史最 高位附近。印度有与美国达成新的关税协议而同意逐步减少对俄罗斯石油进口的倾向。美国财政部 外国资产控制办公室称，近十几个主要的印度买家表示打算暂停购买俄罗斯12月份交付的石油。乌 克兰对俄罗斯炼厂袭击，俄罗斯梁赞炼油厂暂停原油加工，欧洲汽柴油持续上涨，关注俄罗斯原油 的出口情况。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙升级，福特号打击群到达加勒比海。利比亚首都的黎波里附 近爆发武装冲突。地缘局势引发委内瑞拉、利比亚供应中断担忧。但消费旺季结束、美国10月份ISM 制造业指数环比下降，连续第八个月萎缩，市场担忧原油需求，OPEC+加速增产，中东地 ...

近期，受到美国对俄罗斯两大石油生产商制裁影响，伊拉克国家石油营销组织SOMO已取消3批卢克石 油公司原定于11月装船的原油货物。印度两家国企HPCL、MRPL通过招标从美国、中东采购约500万桶 原油，包括阿布扎比Murban原油。近期俄罗斯到印度原油物流出现扰动，初步出口数据显示，10月俄 罗斯原油出口环比下滑5%，但较去年同期仍高约10%。印度信实集团、MRPL、HMEL集团已经停止对 俄罗斯原油采买，目前约80万桶/日俄罗斯原油供应受到威胁。 ■"欧佩克+"确定产量计划 11月2日，"欧佩克+"宣布12月将小幅增产13.7万桶/日，并暂停2026年第一季度进一步增产计划。"欧佩 克+"成员国将于11月30日举行下一次会议，商讨2026年的产量水平。届时该组织将评估暂停增产对市场 实际效果、全球需求情况以及地缘政治局势发展。另一方面，沙特下调12月销往亚洲官方销售价格，其 中阿拉伯轻质原油对亚洲售价每桶下调1.2美元，较阿曼/迪拜原油均价升水1美元/桶，此外中质与重质 原油每桶调降1.4美元。 来源：中国能源网 ■美洲产量预期强劲 夏季需求旺季结束，全球原油供需压力加大，水上浮仓飙升。10月，美国制裁俄罗 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The crude oil market is in a supply - surplus situation. The decision of OPEC+ to increase production in December will intensify the supply pressure in the fourth quarter, while the supply pressure in the first quarter of next year will be unexpectedly relieved. With the end of the consumption peak season and concerns about demand, along with OPEC+ accelerating production and increased exports from the Middle East, the supply - surplus pattern has become more of a consensus. It is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate weakly [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Market Analysis - On November 2, OPEC+ eight countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the October and November plans, and suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. Their next meeting is on November 30. This will intensify the supply pressure in the fourth quarter but relieve it in Q1 2026 [1]. - The end of the crude oil demand peak season, EIA data shows an unexpected increase in refined oil inventories, but due to increased net exports, the decline in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, and the overall oil product inventory decreased slightly [1][4]. - US crude oil production is near the historical high. India may reduce imports of Russian oil due to a potential new tariff agreement with the US. US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control said that nearly a dozen major Indian buyers plan to suspend purchasing Russian oil for December delivery [1]. - Ukraine's attack on Russian refineries led to the suspension of crude oil processing at the Ryazan refinery in Russia, and European gasoline and diesel prices continued to rise. Tensions between the US and Venezuela, and armed conflicts in Libya have raised concerns about supply disruptions [1]. - Negative factors such as the end of the consumption peak season, the decline in the US October ISM manufacturing index, OPEC+ accelerating production, and increased exports from the Middle East have led to an oversupply situation in the crude oil market [1]. - OPEC has adjusted the global oil market from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the IEA expects that the growth of oil demand in the fourth quarter will slow down while supply will further increase [1]. - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that the latest sanctions from the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production. There are also rumors of the Trump administration secretly coordinating a new framework to end the Ukraine conflict, leading to a decline in the risk premium of Russian crude oil [1]. b) Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2601 fell 1.66% to 455.5 yuan per ton, with a minimum price of 451.8 yuan per ton and a maximum of 458.4 yuan per ton. The open interest decreased by 1,984 to 39,074 lots [2]. c) Fundamental Tracking - EIA月报预计2025年全球液态燃料产量将增加270万桶/日，2026年再增加130万桶/日。EIA also raised the forecast of US crude oil production in 2026 by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.5 million barrels per day [3]. - OPEC月报 adjusted the global oil shortage in the third quarter of 2025 from 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and adjusted the global oil shortage in 2026 from 50,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 20,000 barrels per day. It maintained the forecast of global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 at 1.3 million barrels per day and in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day [3]. - IEA's annual "World Energy Outlook" predicts that oil demand may continue to grow until 2050, while previously it was expected to peak in 2030. The IEA monthly report raised the global crude oil supply growth rate forecast for 2025 by 100,000 barrels per day to 3.1 million barrels per day, and for 2026 by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day; it also raised the global crude oil demand growth rate forecast for 2025 by 78,000 barrels per day to 788,000 barrels per day, and for 2026 by 71,000 barrels per day to 770,000 barrels per day [3]. d) Inventory and Production Data - As of the week ending November 14, US crude oil inventories decreased by 3.426 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 603,000 barrels and 5.11% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories increased by 2.327 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 227,000 barrels; refined oil inventories increased by 171,000 barrels, against the expected decrease of 1.215 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 698,000 barrels [4]. - OPEC's September crude oil production was revised down by 13,000 barrels per day to 28.427 million barrels per day, and its October production increased by 33,000 barrels per day to 28.46 million barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. OPEC+ October crude oil production decreased by 73,000 barrels per day compared to September to 43.02 million barrels per day [4]. - US crude oil production in the week ending November 14 decreased by 28,000 barrels per day to 13.834 million barrels per day, still near the historical high [4]. e) Demand Data - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.641 million barrels per day, a 1.23% increase compared to the same period last year, changing from lower to higher than the same period last year [4]. - US gasoline weekly demand decreased by 5.54% to 8.528 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 8.839 million barrels per day, a 1.21% decrease compared to the same period last year. Diesel weekly demand decreased by 3.38% to 3.882 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.798 million barrels per day, a 0.20% increase compared to the same period last year. The decline in gasoline and diesel demand led to a 2.95% decrease in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4][6].

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | ...