Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of new models in the real estate sector, empowering industry development from a long-term perspective [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The rise of "good houses" as an industry standard may further amplify product capability differences, reshaping the competitive landscape among enterprises [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The company continues to recommend "three good" real estate stocks characterized by "good credit, good cities, and good products," as well as leading property management companies with stable dividends and performance [1]

记者丨李莎 编辑丨李果 日前，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（后简称《建 议》）公布。 与"十四五"规划纲要在新型城镇化的框架中部署房地产工作不同， 《建议》对房地产的安排 主要集中在民生保障部分内容 ，核心任务是推动房地产高质量发展。 为落地这一方向，《建议》部署了五方面具体任务：加快构建房地产发展新模式，完善商品房 开发、融资、销售等基础制度。优化保障性住房供给，满足城镇工薪群体和各类困难家庭基本 住房需求。因城施策增加改善性住房供给。建设安全舒适绿色智慧的"好房子"，实施房屋品质 提升工程和物业服务质量提升行动。建立房屋全生命周期安全管理制度。 清华大学土木水利学院院长吴璟向21世纪经济报道记者表示， 《建议》单独用一段话来论述 推动房地产高质量发展，而且将其放在保障和改善民生部分，这释放出重要信号 ："十五 五"时期房地产高质量发展，将回归住房相关产业的初心与使命，即服务居民家庭对更高品质 居住生活的需求。这是"十五五"时期房地产业发展的首要目标，也是理解和把握房地产高质量 发展的首要出发点。 吴璟认为，《建议》对房地产的部署，总体延续了近期有关部门已在开展的工作思路，" ...

Core Viewpoint - The recently published "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" emphasizes the high-quality development of real estate, focusing on improving people's livelihoods rather than urbanization frameworks as seen in the previous plan [1][3]. Group 1: Key Tasks for Real Estate Development - The "Suggestions" outline five specific tasks for real estate development: constructing a new development model, optimizing the supply of affordable housing, increasing the supply of improved housing, building safe and comfortable "good houses," and establishing a safety management system for the entire lifecycle of housing [1][3][4]. - The emphasis on "good houses" indicates a shift towards quality in housing, aligning with the needs of residents for better living conditions [8][10]. Group 2: Policy Continuity and Stability - The approach taken in the "Suggestions" reflects a continuation of recent policy directions, ensuring coherence and stability in real estate policies during the 15th Five-Year Plan period [2][3]. Group 3: Housing Attributes and Quality - The document highlights the residential and livelihood attributes of real estate, marking a transition from viewing housing primarily as an economic asset to recognizing it as a fundamental aspect of people's lives [3][6]. - The focus on optimizing the supply of affordable housing signifies a strategic shift from merely increasing quantity to enhancing quality and structure in housing supply [6][7]. Group 4: New Development Model - The priority of constructing a new real estate development model includes reforms in pre-sale systems, enhancing housing quality, and optimizing financing structures to reduce systemic risks [4][5]. - The introduction of a risk warning mechanism for real estate companies is aimed at preventing cross-market risk transmission [4]. Group 5: Localized Policy Implementation - The "Suggestions" advocate for localized policies to increase the supply of improved housing, emphasizing the need for tailored approaches based on specific city conditions [5][7]. - This approach aims to balance market dynamics with social guarantees, enhancing the living standards of residents [5][6]. Group 6: Quality Improvement Initiatives - The emphasis on the construction of "good houses" and the implementation of quality improvement projects for existing housing reflects a commitment to elevating living standards [8][10]. - The establishment of a comprehensive safety management system for housing throughout its lifecycle is a significant institutional advancement for ensuring quality [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development," emphasizing the need for high-quality development in the real estate sector, focusing on various dimensions such as institutional construction, housing supply, housing quality, and risk prevention [1][7]. Group 1: New Development Model - The "Suggestions" prioritize the establishment of a new development model for real estate, highlighting the fundamental role of institutional construction [2]. - Key areas for improvement include development systems, sales systems, and financing systems to address risks from the old model [2]. - Policies such as project development company systems and financing coordination mechanisms are expected to be key focuses during the 15th Five-Year Plan [2]. Group 2: Housing Supply and Demand - The "Suggestions" propose to "clean up unreasonable restrictive measures on housing consumption," indicating potential optimization in purchasing policies for core cities [2]. - There is a focus on revitalizing inefficient land and idle properties, with provincial governments being granted greater authority in land use planning [2]. - As of October 24, over 620 billion yuan has been earmarked for purchasing idle land, with actual issuance around 216 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Risk Prevention - The "Suggestions" reiterate the importance of orderly risk resolution in real estate, local government debt, and small financial institutions [2]. - Effective management of project failures and corporate debt is emphasized to protect homebuyers' rights and maintain financial stability [3]. Group 4: Affordable Housing - The focus has shifted from merely increasing the quantity of affordable housing to optimizing its quality and structure [3]. - The plan aims to meet the basic housing needs of urban wage earners and various disadvantaged families, with a target of over 11 million affordable housing units constructed during the 14th Five-Year Plan [3]. Group 5: Quality Housing - The "Suggestions" introduce the concept of "good housing," emphasizing safety, comfort, sustainability, and intelligence in housing construction [5]. - The implementation of quality improvement projects and property service quality enhancement actions is highlighted as a national strategy [5]. - The shift in property services from "object-oriented" to "people-oriented" is noted, addressing diverse needs such as elderly care and emergency services [5]. Group 6: Lifecycle Management - The establishment of a comprehensive safety management system for the entire lifecycle of housing is proposed, including mechanisms for housing inspection, maintenance, and insurance [6]. - Pilot programs for housing pension systems and insurance are already underway in several cities, indicating a trend towards more robust housing management [6]. Group 7: Urban Renewal - The "Suggestions" elevate urban renewal to a systematic and high-quality initiative, addressing challenges such as commercial land use rights and funding pressures [6]. - Policies aimed at improving legal frameworks for commercial land use rights are anticipated to support the high-quality development of real estate [6]. Group 8: Overall Implications - The 15th Five-Year Plan integrates real estate into the framework of social welfare and common prosperity, emphasizing a shift from scale expansion to quality enhancement [7]. - The industry is expected to undergo restructuring and rebirth amid challenges, with a focus on human-centered and quality-oriented development [7].

Core Viewpoint - The "Suggestions" released by the Central Committee emphasize the need for high-quality development in the real estate sector, focusing on establishing a new development model and improving housing supply for various demographics [1][2]. Group 1: New Development Model - The "Suggestions" prioritize the construction of a new real estate development model, which is essential for the industry's transformation after significant adjustments during the 14th Five-Year Plan [2]. - Key improvements in the foundational systems of development, financing, and sales are identified as crucial for addressing existing risks and bottlenecks in the industry [2]. - Suggestions for enhancing these systems include clarifying legal relationships between project companies and headquarters, exploring current sales to mitigate delivery risks, and designating a lead bank for project financing to ensure timely delivery and protect buyers' rights [2]. Group 2: Housing Security - The emphasis on optimizing the supply of affordable housing highlights the increasing importance of housing security, which is seen as a critical component of social stability and economic consumption [2]. - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, over 11 million units of affordable housing and urban renewal projects were completed, benefiting over 100 million people [3]. - Innovative models like "purchase instead of construction" and "housing vouchers" have shown effectiveness in converting idle properties into affordable rental housing, thus addressing housing issues more efficiently [3]. Group 3: Quality of Housing - The "Suggestions" advocate for the construction of safe, comfortable, green, and smart homes, aligning with standards set in the 2025 housing project guidelines [4]. - Recent practices in various regions have led to the establishment of detailed guidelines for building high-quality homes, focusing on enhancing living experiences through innovative construction methods [4]. - The shift from quantity expansion to quality improvement in real estate is underscored, with a focus on enhancing property quality and service standards as essential strategies for the industry [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights structural opportunities in the third and fourth-tier housing markets despite challenges such as inventory overhang and weak demand [6][8] - It emphasizes that the market for "good houses" is stabilizing, with a willingness to pay for quality increasing among consumers in lower-tier cities [6][8] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The inventory clearance cycle in third and fourth-tier cities is relatively stable, with a longer average clearance period of 50.5 months compared to 35.1 months in first-tier cities [11] - Price adjustments in these cities are gradually shrinking, indicating a stabilization in housing prices [11] Land Acquisition Trends - Land acquisition competition is weaker in third and fourth-tier cities, with fewer new entrants due to the exit of distressed developers [14][30] - The land transaction premium in third-tier cities has decreased by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous year, indicating a more favorable environment for project profitability [14][30] Consumer Preferences - There is a noticeable trend towards larger units in third and fourth-tier cities, driven by family-oriented living arrangements and lower price thresholds [21][16] - The acceptance of "good houses" is higher in these markets, with consumers willing to pay a premium for quality [21][16] Competitive Landscape - The number of developers active in third and fourth-tier cities has significantly decreased, leading to a more favorable competitive environment for established players [30][31] - Companies that have maintained a presence in these markets, such as China Overseas Development and Greentown China, are likely to benefit from improved project margins [35][41] Implications for Higher-Tier Markets - The report suggests that the trends observed in third and fourth-tier cities may also apply to first and second-tier markets, where a differentiation and quality improvement trend is expected to continue [80] - Core areas in first-tier cities are anticipated to stabilize and potentially see price recovery, particularly for high-quality properties [80]

（日前，中建东孚发布了"好房子Joylife"价值系统。受访者/图） 日前，中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议公报正式发布。其中，房地产相关的表述置 于"加大保障和改善民生力度"部分，明确提出要"推动房地产高质量发展"。 《中国经营报》记者注意到，今年以来，在房地产领域"好房子"频频被提及。今年5月，住房和城乡建 设部相关负责人透露，有关部门正在组织编制《好房子建设指南》。 此外，今年5月1日起开始实施的《住宅项目规范》也以住宅项目整体为对象，规定了住宅项目的规模、 布局、功能、性能和关键技术措施，有力支撑城镇住宅项目高质量发展。 对此，龙头房企也开始加速布局谋篇。记者从中建东孚方面获悉，日前中建东孚已经发布了Joylife好房 子价值系统。该系统满足中建好房子营造体系中101项基础需求，完善59项提升需求，定制27项特色需 求，能够显著升级居住舒适度与功能完善度。 中经记者 杨让晨 上海报道 中建东孚党委副书记、总经理张涛表示，中建东孚凝聚全国多个重点城市的丰富开发经验，聚焦人居体 验本质、回归家庭生活本真，此次精心定制、全新打造推出了好房子Joylife系统，将为"好房子"衷心奉 上中建东孚的答案 ...

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证券研究报告：房地产|行业周报 发布时间：2025-10-27 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 2370.55 | | 52 | 周最高 | 2656.47 | | 52 | 周最低 | 1870.99 | 行业相对指数表现 -20% -16% -12% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 2024-10 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 2025-08 2025-10 房地产 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:高丁卉 SAC 登记编号:S1340524080001 Email:gaodinghui@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《投资与销售双降 楼市调整压力持 续》 - 2025.10.20 2025 年 10 月 23 日，中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全 体会议公报明确提出"推动房地产高质量发展"，标志着"十五五"时期 房地产行业正式从规模扩张转向品质提升的新阶段。"推动房地产高 质量发展"被纳入"保障和改善民生"框架，政策重心从"稳增长"转向"促 品 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee has marked a significant shift in the approach to real estate, emphasizing the need for high-quality development within the framework of improving people's livelihoods, indicating a strategic integration of real estate with national development goals [2][3]. Group 1: Policy Developments - The Fourth Plenary Session's communiqué is the first to explicitly mention real estate, integrating it into the broader context of improving living standards and promoting common prosperity [2]. - The central bank has reiterated its commitment to maintaining financial stability and addressing risks in the real estate market for two consecutive weeks [5]. - Local governments have been actively releasing policies to stabilize the market, with 13 provinces and cities announcing measures to support the real estate sector [6][11]. Group 2: Economic and Social Implications - High-quality development in real estate is seen as a crucial pillar for stabilizing the macro economy and driving sustainable growth through consumption upgrades and effective investment [3][4]. - Establishing a comprehensive housing supply system is essential for addressing urgent public needs, thereby enhancing the quality of life and social cohesion [3]. Group 3: Industry Transformation - The focus on high-quality development represents a fundamental shift for the real estate industry, moving away from reliance on scale expansion towards quality enhancement, aiming for a more resilient and sustainable growth phase [4]. - Policies promoting "good housing" and ensuring affordable housing are increasingly being emphasized, with various local initiatives aimed at improving housing quality and accessibility [7][12]. Group 4: Local Initiatives and Innovations - Cities like Hangzhou are implementing innovative subsidy models, such as "home purchase + consumption vouchers," to stimulate both real estate sales and consumer spending [8][11]. - Specific measures in cities like Shanghai and Guangzhou are aimed at enhancing the quality of construction and service in the real estate sector, indicating a trend towards higher standards in housing development [7][12].