Core Viewpoint - The President of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, Harker, stated that monetary policy decisions by the FOMC are not based on a hypothetical neutral interest rate [1] Group 1 - Harker emphasized that the FOMC does not rely on a presumed neutral interest rate when making monetary policy decisions [1]

美联储哈克：不会根据中性利率制定政策决定。 订阅美联储动态 +订阅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Harker stated that policy decisions will not be based on the neutral interest rate [1] Group 1 - Harker emphasizes the importance of not tying policy decisions to the neutral interest rate, indicating a more flexible approach to monetary policy [1]

新华财经北京6月5日电（王姝睿） 欧洲央行日内如期降息，强化了该央行在经济下行风险中的宽松倾 向。市场尤其注意到欧洲央行对通胀预期的下修，这将引发有关通胀低于2%目标的风险以及进一步降 息预期的讨论。 欧洲央行将存款机制利率下调25个基点至2%，为该央行认为既不抑制也不促进经济的"中性"水平的中 间值。主要再融资利率和边际贷款利率分别从2.4%和2.65%下调至2.15%和2.4%，处于2023年初以来的 最低水平。 最新的欧洲央行季度经济预测显示，2025年和2026年的GDP增长前景将略有放缓，总体通胀水平将下 降。具体预测如下： 预计欧元区2025年核心通胀率为2.4%，2026年为1.9%，2027年为1.9%。（3月预期分别为2.2%、2.0%、 1.9%） 预计欧元区2025年通胀率为2.0%，2026年为1.6%，2027年为2.0%。（3月预期分别为2.3%、1.9%、 2.0%） 预计欧元区2025年GDP增长率为0.9%，2026年为1.1%，2027年为1.3%。（3月预期分别为0.9%、1.2%、 1.3%） 富兰克林邓普顿欧洲固定收益部门负责人David Zahn表示，欧洲央行政策立 ...

欧洲央行行长拉加德：我们尚未讨论中性利率。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to lower the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2% during its upcoming meeting, marking the eighth rate cut in this cycle due to the negative impact of U.S. tariffs on global trade and economic outlook [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The ECB is anticipated to announce a rate cut on Thursday, with further cuts expected in September as the impact of tariffs becomes clearer [1]. - ECB policymakers, both hawks and doves, indicate that they have nearly completed the process of lowering borrowing costs, with discussions about slowing the pace of easing [5]. - Economists predict a pause in rate cuts next month, but caution that prolonged inaction could lead markets to believe the ECB has halted rate reductions entirely [7]. Group 2: Economic Forecasts - Analysts expect the ECB to maintain its previous economic forecasts despite significant changes in the global trade landscape [8]. - The euro has strengthened significantly since March, and lower energy prices are exerting downward pressure on prices, providing relief to businesses affected by weak demand [8]. - The ECB is preparing various scenario forecasts to better understand potential future developments, with the likelihood of the baseline forecast being less than 50% [10]. Group 3: Political and Geopolitical Factors - The upcoming meetings between U.S. and EU officials, including discussions on defense spending and tariffs, are critical for the economic outlook of the eurozone [11]. - The potential for increased defense spending to 5% of GDP, as requested by the U.S., could significantly impact the eurozone economy [11]. - The uncertainty surrounding the outcome of trade negotiations and the ability of governments to implement large-scale defense and infrastructure plans adds to the unpredictability of the economic environment [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the resilience of the U.S. labor market despite aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve post-pandemic, characterized by a steepening of the Phillips and Beveridge curves [1][2][4][5]. - The U.S. labor market has shown robust growth with unemployment rates remaining historically low, even as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates from 0-0.25% to 5.25%-5.5% over a span of 11 hikes [3][4]. - The average monthly non-farm employment from March 2022 to March 2025 is 230,400, significantly higher than the pre-pandemic average of 178,000 [3]. Group 2 - The Phillips curve has become more vertical, indicating that despite a drop in inflation from 7.0% to 2.1%, the unemployment rate only increased from 3.6% to 4.1%, demonstrating the labor market's resilience [4]. - The Beveridge curve has steepened, showing that even with a decrease in job vacancy rates from 7.4% to 4.4%, the unemployment rate only rose slightly, further indicating labor market strength [5]. - The labor market is characterized by a significant "demand exceeding supply" situation, with a labor shortage exacerbated by slow recovery in labor supply post-pandemic [6]. Group 3 - Strong public and private investments, driven by the Biden administration's "Invest in America" agenda, have significantly boosted labor demand, with total spending around $1.2 trillion since late 2021 [7]. - Private sector investments have exceeded $1 trillion, particularly in manufacturing and non-residential construction, contributing to job growth despite high interest rates [7][8]. - The accumulation of "excess savings" and rising asset prices have supported consumer spending, which in turn has driven labor demand, creating a positive feedback loop in the economy [12][13]. Group 4 - The influx of low-cost immigrant labor has made the labor market both "scarce and relatively cheap," which has stimulated demand and mitigated the impact of high interest rates on business costs [14][15]. - The labor market's dynamics can explain the verticalization of the Phillips curve and the steepening of the Beveridge curve, as high demand persists even with rising interest rates [16]. - The neutral interest rate has risen post-pandemic, leading to an underestimation of the restrictive nature of the Federal Reserve's policy rates, which has contributed to the labor market's resilience [17][18]. Group 5 - In the short term, the labor market is expected to remain stable, with a gradual decrease in hiring rates but low levels of layoffs, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation [20][21]. - In the medium to long term, uncertainties stemming from potential policy changes under the Trump administration could impact the labor market, particularly regarding tariffs and federal spending cuts [22].

Group 1: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that future supply shocks may lead to more volatile inflation, prompting a reassessment of the monetary policy framework, particularly the "average inflation targeting" strategy introduced in 2020 [1] - The current federal funds rate is between 4.5% and 4.75%, with Powell emphasizing the need to ensure inflation is truly under control before considering rate cuts [2] - The market is uncertain about the Fed's next steps, as inflation has decreased but remains above the target, leading to fluctuating expectations regarding interest rate cuts [5] Group 2: Government Debt and Fiscal Pressure - The U.S. government debt has reached $36.19 trillion, exceeding the debt ceiling of $33.1 trillion, creating significant interest payment pressures [3] - Calls for the Fed to lower interest rates are increasing, as lower rates could alleviate the government's borrowing burden, but this could also lead to a depreciation of the dollar and increased inflation risks [3] Group 3: Employment Market Dynamics - The unemployment rate is currently at 4.1%, but the Fed believes the labor market is still too "hot," indicating a desire to cool it down without causing significant job losses [4] - Powell's approach aims to balance high interest rates to control inflation while maintaining employment levels [4] Group 4: Historical Context and Lessons - The comparison to the 1970s under Chairman Burns highlights the risks of aggressive rate cuts leading to uncontrollable inflation, with historical data showing inflation rates averaging 9% during that period [7][11] - Current inflation rates are at 2.9% with a core CPI of 3.4%, indicating that inflation is still above the Fed's target [12] Group 5: Political and Market Pressures - Former President Trump has publicly called for immediate rate cuts, contrasting with Powell's cautious stance, as companies like Ford and Mattel lower earnings forecasts amid economic uncertainty [6] - Wall Street analysts are warning of potential recession risks, with Goldman Sachs predicting a 35% chance of recession within a year, increasing the pressure for the Fed to act [6]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) may need to lower interest rates below the neutral rate of 1.5%-2% to prevent inflation from falling below 2% [1]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced its second interest rate cut of the year, aligning with market expectations, and analysts predict two more cuts may follow [1][2] - The RBA's decision to cut rates is driven by concerns over weak economic growth and inflation data indicating a moderation in inflationary pressures, with the first quarter's trimmed mean inflation rate at 2.9%, entering the RBA's target range for the first time since 2021 [2][3] - Recent economic indicators show resilience in the Australian economy, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.1%, a quarterly wage price index increase of 0.9%, and a slight rise in consumer confidence to 92.1 points [2] Group 2 - The RBA expressed a cautious stance regarding future rate cuts, highlighting uncertainties related to global trade and geopolitical factors that could negatively impact economic growth, employment, and inflation [3][4] - The RBA has revised its inflation forecasts downward, with the overall inflation rate expected to be 2.1% compared to a previous estimate of 2.4%, indicating a shift in focus from anti-inflation measures to supporting economic growth [4][5] - Analysts anticipate multiple rate cuts in the future, with predictions of cuts in August and November, potentially lowering the benchmark rate to 3.35% by year-end [5][6]