Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The central government emphasizes "domestic demand as the main driver" for economic growth, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" to promote a consumption-driven economic model[5] - The fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is expected to be around 4%, with new local special bonds projected to be issued at approximately 4.6 trillion yuan[6] - The focus on improving people's livelihoods remains high, with policies aimed at resolving overdue payments to businesses and wages for migrant workers[6] Group 2: Export Performance - In November 2025, dollar-denominated exports grew by 5.9% year-on-year, while imports increased by 1.9%[8] - The trade surplus rebounded, with exports in November showing a month-on-month growth of 8.2%, significantly higher than the 1.0% growth in October[8] - Exports to non-U.S. markets, particularly the EU and ASEAN, showed positive growth, with ASEAN exports up by 8.2% and Latin America by 14.9%[9] Group 3: Financial Market Trends - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market decreased to 1.7 trillion yuan, with the proportion of stocks rising falling to 42.66%[16] - New issuance of equity funds dropped to 12.16 billion yuan, indicating a slowdown in public fund activity[17] - Foreign capital saw a net outflow of 3.8 million USD, with the proportion of northbound trading declining to 29.0%[17] Group 4: Company Performance and Projections - China Tianying's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 3.942 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8%[34] - Didi's adjusted EBITA for 2025 is projected at 46.0 billion yuan, with a target market value of 234.7 billion yuan based on a 15x EV/EBITA valuation[38] - COFCO Technology's net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 grew by 2.3%, with revenue reaching 1.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.8%[44]

12月8日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。 多家券商首席经济学家分享了最新的学习体会。券商预计，2025年顺利实现发展目标，2026年仍需保持较高的 目标设定，兼顾"硬实力"与"软实力"，统筹内外，优化存量，因地制宜发展新质生产力，着力创造就业保"四 稳"，构建流畅内循环、强韧性的内需市场，持之以恒改善民生；政策实施层面注重政策落地后的持续推进增 强实效，政策部署更重衔接协同集成效应。 财政和货币政策仍有较大空间 会议指出，"继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"。对此，浙商证券首席经济学家李超表示， 结合积极的财政政策基调以及中央预算稳定调节基金的特点，2026年存在小幅提高赤字率的可能性，同时综合 考虑结转结余，则2026年广义财政力度或将下降。预计2026年赤字率可能设定为4.0%—4.2%左右，对应赤字 规模为5.89万亿元至6.19万亿元，广义赤字规模约为11.79万亿元至12.09万亿元。 兴业证券首席经济学家王涵表示，此次会议仍将"扩大内需"工作放在首位，其次新增表述"优化供给"，"坚持 创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能"，相比于7月会议而言，此次会议将产业相关内容提 ...

Key Insights - The report emphasizes a continuation of a proactive policy stance, with an increased focus on domestic demand as a strategic priority for the economy in 2026 [5][6][8] - Export resilience is highlighted, with November 2025 showing a year-on-year export growth of 5.9%, reversing a previous decline [12][13] Group 1: Economic Policy Outlook - The Central Political Bureau's meeting on December 8, 2025, reiterated the importance of balancing domestic economic work with international trade challenges, maintaining a focus on economic construction as a core task [5][6] - The fiscal policy for 2026 is expected to maintain a general deficit ratio around 4%, with broad deficit levels similar to 2025 [7] - Monetary policy is projected to have room for a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a potential interest rate reduction of 10-20 basis points [7][8] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Growth - The meeting underscored the need to prioritize domestic demand and build a strong domestic market, indicating a strategic elevation of domestic demand's role in economic growth [8][10] - The focus on consumption is expected to shift towards services, with policies supporting the replacement of old goods to stimulate physical consumption [8][10] Group 3: Export Performance - November 2025 saw exports reach $330.35 billion, marking a historical high for the month, with a significant recovery from previous declines [12][13] - The report notes that while exports to the U.S. have decreased, there has been notable growth in exports to Africa, the EU, and Japan, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [15][16] - Intermediate goods and capital goods exports are expected to remain strong, supported by industrialization in emerging markets and infrastructure needs in regions like Africa [12][16]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline on December 8, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 1.23% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropping by 1.25% [2] - The total trading volume in the market was HKD 206.23 billion, with short selling accounting for 16.66% of the total trading volume [2] - Northbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 1.54 billion, with Xiaomi Group, SMIC, and Pop Mart being the most actively bought stocks [2][3] Group 2: Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the continuation of a proactive fiscal policy and a loose monetary policy to stimulate consumption and counter economic downward pressure [4] - The meeting outlined eight key principles for economic work in 2026, with a focus on domestic demand, innovation, reform, and green transformation [4] Group 3: Company Analysis - Bosideng (3998.HK) - Bosideng reported a revenue of HKD 8.928 billion for the first half of the fiscal year ending September 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, while net profit rose by 5.3% to HKD 1.189 billion [6] - The brand's down jacket business saw an 8.3% increase in revenue to HKD 6.568 billion, although the gross margin decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 59.1% [6] - The OEM business faced challenges, with revenue declining by 11.7% to HKD 2.044 billion, but gross margin improved by 0.4 percentage points to 20.5% due to effective cost management [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is expected to perform well in the upcoming peak season, with projected EPS for fiscal years 2026-2028 at HKD 0.35, 0.38, and 0.43 respectively [8] - A target price of HKD 6.0 is set for the 2025/26 fiscal year, reflecting a 16 times PE ratio [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The Central Politburo meeting emphasized that the economic work in 2026 should adhere to making progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency, continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and enhance the integrated effect of existing and incremental policies [2]. - The import in China shows a certain repair trend, while the growth rate of exports has declined slightly in the past two months, which is in line with expectations due to the high base of exports in the same period last year, weak overseas demand, and the overdraft effect of pre - export on demand [3]. - The A - share market closed higher on the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.54%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.39%, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.6% [4]. - The Central Economic Work Conference may maintain a moderately supportive tone in fiscal and monetary policies, increase support for innovative consumption, focus on the reform and re - balancing themes established in the new five - year plan, and reiterate the stability of the real estate market [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Economic Policy - The 2026 fiscal policy may continue the high - financing trend of government bonds, and the deficit rate may increase. The monetary policy will focus on improving traditional mechanisms, and large - scale interest - rate cuts are expected to be cautious. There are policy expectations for promoting consumption, and innovation, people's livelihood, and green transformation will be long - term policy orientations [2]. - The Central Economic Work Conference may set the GDP growth target for 2026 in the range of 4.5% - 5%, and maintain a moderately supportive tone in fiscal and monetary policies, focusing on innovation, consumption, and real estate market stability [9]. 3.2 Trade Data - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's cumulative export in US dollars increased by 5.4% year - on - year, with a monthly increase of 5.9%. The cumulative increase in imports was - 0.6%, and the monthly increase was 1.9% [3]. 3.3 Financial Market - A - share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.54%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.39%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.6%, and the two - market trading volume increased by 3108.75 billion yuan compared with the previous trading day [4]. - International market: The South Korean Composite Index rose 1.34%, the Wande All - A Index rose 1.04%, the Russian RTS Index fell 1.75%, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.23%, the US three major stock indexes closed down, the German DAX rose slightly by 0.07%, the French CAC40 fell slightly by 0.08%, and the UK FTSE 100 fell 0.23% [4]. - Interest rates: The 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 1.8526%, with a change of + 0.4BP, and the average prices of inter - bank R001 and R007 on the day were 1.3718% and 1.4940% respectively [5]. 3.4 Real Estate Market - In November, the sales volume of commercial housing in 30 cities decreased by 33% year - on - year, and the year - on - year decline in the first 6 days of December was 34%. The contract sales volume of top - 100 developers in November decreased by 37% year - on - year, and the number of second - hand housing listings in 50 cities increased by 10% year - on - year [7]. - Vanke is seeking bondholders' approval to postpone the repayment of two domestic bonds worth 200 million yuan and 370 million yuan respectively, and the bondholders' meetings are scheduled for December 10 and 22 [8]. - UBS expects that in November, the year - on - year decline in real estate sales will expand (down 20 - 25% year - on - year), and real estate investment will continue to contract deeply (down 23% year - on - year) [10]. 3.5 Economic Forecast - UBS expects that in 2026, the GDP growth target will be in the range of 4.5% - 5%, and the GDP growth rate will fall to 4.5%. The Central Economic Work Conference may maintain a moderately supportive tone in fiscal and monetary policies [9]. - For the November official data, UBS expects that real estate sales will decline more, real estate investment will contract deeply, infrastructure investment decline will narrow slightly, retail and export sales will improve slightly, industrial production growth will slow down, official social financing and credit growth may slightly decrease, CPI may improve, and PPI decline may narrow slightly [10].

Group 1 - The core economic policy for 2026 emphasizes a more proactive fiscal policy combined with moderately loose monetary policy, continuing the approach from the previous year [1] - The meeting highlighted the importance of leveraging existing policies while also introducing new measures to address emerging issues, aiming for a synergistic effect to stabilize short-term fluctuations and lay a foundation for long-term development [3] - The focus on "domestic demand as the main driver" indicates that insufficient effective demand remains a key challenge, necessitating deeper efforts to build a strong domestic market and dismantle local protectionism and regional barriers [5] Group 2 - The meeting underscored the need for better coordination between domestic economic work and international trade dynamics, advocating for both openness and the protection of national interests in response to uncertainties [7] - The potential for the Chinese economy is expected to be further unleashed in the new year, presenting new development opportunities for both enterprises and individuals across various sectors [7]

中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，审议《中国共产党领导全面依法治国工 作条例》。中共中央总书记习近平主持会议。会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继 续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和 跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。要坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场；坚持创新驱动， 加紧培育壮大新动能；坚持改革攻坚，增强高质量发展动力活力；坚持对外开放，推动多领域合作共 赢；坚持协调发展，促进城乡融合和区域联动；坚持"双碳"引领，推动全面绿色转型；坚持民生为大， 努力为人民群众多办实事；坚持守牢底线，积极稳妥化解重点领域风险。 ...

中金研究 中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作[1]。会议强调明年经济工作要坚持"稳中求进、提质增效"的总基调，"实施更加积极有为 的宏观政策，持续扩大内需、优化供给"，并将"内需主导，建设强大国内市场"放在八大任务第一条。我们认为在国内供求矛盾比较突出、外围环境仍 有挑战的背景下，明年总量政策或将适度加力，财政货币也可能加大协同以提升治理效能。我们认为结构方面的政策可能"增减"并行，既做加法，也 做减法，以改善政策效率，既提振需求，也改善供给，以实现合理增长。 点击小程序查看报告原文 供求失衡现象仍然比较突出。 一方面，金融周期下行调整，资源配置优化，供给能力得到增强，绿色经济和人工智能产业规模效应显现、出口在贸易摩 擦下持续展现韧性都是供给端竞争力提升的体现。另一方面，周期和结构调整带来需求不足，金融周期下行调整通过明斯基的财富效应以及费雪债务-低 通胀等效应制约国内需求。结构优化与技术进步导致劳动密度和劳动需求下降、就业不充分。继4月政治局会议[2]后，本次会议再次提出更好"统筹国内 经济工作和国际经贸斗争"，并将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"放在八大任务第一条。这与"十五五 ...

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of domestic demand as a core driver for economic growth, aiming to build a strong domestic market [1] - The focus has shifted from separately addressing "consumption" and "investment" to a unified approach of "domestic demand," allowing local governments more flexibility in implementing policies to stimulate consumption or promote investment [1] - The policy aims to significantly increase the household consumption rate, with a notable gap of 1923 yuan in per capita service consumption compared to pre-pandemic trends, indicating a potential area for policy intervention [1] Group 2 - Lishang Guochao is focusing on the new consumption and new retail sectors, developing retail business through an online and offline integration model, which is divided into operations and services [2] - Huifa Food is upgrading its "central kitchen + smart dining" model to promote smart dining construction and has established a partnership with the Sha County Snack Group [2]

宏观经济点评 提质增效，科技突围——12 月政治局会议学习 ——宏观经济点评 | | | shenmeichen@kysec.cn hening@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 证书编号：S0790524110002 事件：中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作。 1.形势判断：会议对"十四五"成就满意，综合国力有所提升。短期看，会议指出"（2025 年）经济社会发展主要目标将顺利实现"，指向全年大概率完成 5%的经济发展目标。 中期看，会议对"十四五"成果满意，指出"我国经济、科技、国防等硬实力和文化、 制度、外交等软实力明显提升，'十四五'即将圆满收官，第二个百年奋斗目标新征 程实现良好开局"。 相关研究报告 《推动基础设施 REITs 扩围—宏观周 报》-2025.12.7 《通向供需新均衡—2026 年宏观展 望》-2025.12.2 《工业生产与需求边际走弱—宏观经 济专题》-2025.12.1 2.经济目标：经济工作稳中求进、提质增效，预计 2026 年经济目标可能略低于 5%， 对总量增长有一定容忍度，重点是结构调整和科技突破。会议指出 ...