【导读】 黑天鹅，日本准备加息，股市跌了1000点 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，关注一下日本飞出的一只"黑天鹅"。 12月1日，日本股市暴跌，日经225指数暴跌1000点，而日元上涨。 美股盘前全线跳水。 | 加密市场暴跌。 | | --- | 暴跌的背后，是日本央行行长植田和男周一表示，日本央行将在下次货币政策会议上"权衡加息的利弊"，这是他迄今为止对本月可能加息 发出的最强烈信号。 在他发表上述言论后，市场开始押注日本央行将在12月18日至19日的会议上加息，日元和日本国债收益率随之走高。 植田 和男12月 1日在日本中部名古屋向当地企业界发表演讲时表示，日银（ 日本央行 ）将通过审视内外经济、通胀以及金融市场状况，" 权衡上调政策利率的利弊，并在适当时机作出决定 "。他补充称，即便加息，也只是对宽松力度的调整， 实际利率仍将处于非常低的水平 。 在市场对12月加息预期显著升温的情况下， 如果日本央行本月最终没有行动，也可能再次招致对其沟通不力的批评 。部分经济学家就曾指 责日本央行在2024年8月加息前"预热不足"，从而引发了全球市场的大幅震荡。 在日本央行加息环境逐步成熟的同时，被视为更重视货币宽松 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's bond market is experiencing significant turmoil, with a sharp rise in yields leading to a corresponding drop in bond prices, influenced by potential changes in monetary policy by the Bank of Japan and concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's independence [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Market Reaction - The yield on Japan's 3-month government bonds surged over 34%, while the 10-year bond yield reached 1.85%, marking a notable increase [1][2]. - The 2-year government bond yield has risen to its highest level since 2008, indicating a broader trend of increasing yields across various maturities [2]. - The market is anticipating a 62% chance of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in its December 19 policy meeting, with expectations rising to nearly 90% by January 2026 [2]. Group 2: Economic Context - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that while there are signs of weakness in the global economy, Japan's economy is gradually recovering, albeit with some soft spots [2]. - Ueda emphasized the importance of wage negotiations and indicated that if economic forecasts are met, a rate hike could be on the table, although the overall financial environment would remain accommodative [2]. Group 3: Government Debt Issuance - The Japanese Ministry of Finance plans to increase short-term debt issuance to fund Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's economic stimulus plan, adding 300 billion yen (approximately 1.92 billion USD) each for 2-year and 5-year bonds, and increasing treasury bills by 6.3 trillion yen [3]. Group 4: Market Impact - The turmoil in Japan's bond market has negatively impacted U.S. stock futures, leading to a broad sell-off, while Asian markets also showed weakness [4]. - However, the weakening U.S. dollar may mitigate the impact on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, as it supports commodity prices and enhances liquidity in emerging markets [4]. - Analysts suggest that the A-share market is expected to maintain an upward trend in December, with potential volatility, while Hong Kong stocks may experience a gradual upward trend influenced by signals from the Federal Reserve [4].

关于货币政策，植田和男明确表示："为顺利实现物价稳定目标，有必要适时调整宽松力度，既不能过 晚，也不能过早。"他解释称，即使政策利率上调，宽松的金融环境仍将维持；加息并非"踩刹车"，而 是"适度放松油门"，以支持经济与物价的稳定增长。 植田和男透露，日本央行将在12月会议上"基于各类数据，审视并讨论国内外经济活动与物价情况，以 及市场动态，并权衡加息的利弊"。他补充道，若经济与通胀预测如期实现，央行将根据改善情况继续 上调政策利率。 针对外部风险，植田和男称，尽管海外经济显现疲软迹象，但整体呈逐步回升态势；美国关税政策对全 球经济的影响迄今"并未明显显现"，且越来越多观点认为其对企业利润的影响有限。 此外，植田和男指出，实际利率仍处于极低水平，而汇率走势因企业定价行为变化，比以往更可能对国 内物价产生影响。 新华财经北京12月1日电日本央行行长植田和男重申，日本经济已实现"温和复苏"，并强调尽管2025年 第三季度GDP出现负增长，但该现象仅为暂时性波动。 植田和男指出，随着企业持续提高工资与价格，以及海外经济逐步回升，日本经济前景的不确定性正在 减弱。 植田和男表示，日本央行对经济活动和物价的基本判断未发生 ...

日本国债又崩了！ 刚刚，日本3个月国债收益率暴涨超34%，10年期国债收益率一度达到了1.85%，各期限国债全线暴涨，这对应的就是日本国债的全线暴跌。与此同时，美股期指全 线杀跌，日经指数大幅跳水。 那么，究竟发生了什么？分析人士认为，可能与日本息口和美联储的异动有关。日本央行行长植田和男表示，将在下次货币政策会议上考虑提高政策利率的利弊。 而关于美联储主席人事问题亦被市场关注，甚至再度波及美联储的独立性。 全线崩跌 日本国债市场掀起大浪。该国3个月国债收益率暴涨超34%，对应的是其国债暴跌。日本10年期国债收益率上升5个基点至1.85%。日本2年期国债收益率升至2008年 以来最高水平。与此同时，日经指数一度暴跌近2%。 日本央行行长植田和男表示，海外经济表现出一些疲软，但整体上逐渐增长。迄今为止，人们担心的美国关税对全球经济的影响还没有实现。在关税政策的影响 下，日本央行认为海外经济将暂时放缓的观点没有改变。日本经济已经适度复苏，尽管看到一些疲软的部分。 他表示，将在下次货币政策会议上考虑提高政策利率的利弊。确认薪资谈判的初步势头至关重要。预计企业利润将整体保持在高位。如果经济展望实现，将加息。 实际利率 ...

2025 年 12 月 1 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 公司点评 全球市场观察 公司点评 1 上周五中国股市涨跌互现。港股下跌，医疗保健、能源与地产建筑领跌，原 材料、可选消费与信息科技领涨，南向资金净买入 27.3 亿港币，阿里巴巴、 泡泡玛特与小米集团净买入居前，中芯国际、紫金矿业与华虹半导体净卖出 最多。A 股上涨，工贸综合、可选消费零售与国防军工涨幅居前，银行、煤 炭与医药生物跌幅最大。国债收益率走平，人民币兑美元走强。 中国 11 月制造业 PMI 环比回升至 49.2，其中出口指数回升和高新技术制造 业 PMI 连续 10个月扩张是亮点，产成品库存指数再度下降表明需求疲弱推动 企业去库存。非制造业 PMI 小幅回落。 东京核心通胀超预期支持日本央行进一步加息。11 月东京核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.8%超出市场预期，电力价格上涨速度加快，抵消食品价格涨幅下降的影响。 近期日元走弱可能加剧日本通胀压力，增加了 12月加息概率。日本批准 18.3 万亿日元补充预算，发债计划中短债占比显著上升，因长债收益率持续上升。 德国 11 月 CPI 同比上涨 2.3%低于预期 ...

Group 1: Domestic Market Insights - The manufacturing PMI for November increased to 49.2%, up by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in the manufacturing sector [2] - The non-manufacturing business activity index decreased to 49.5%, down by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The central bank reiterated its commitment to prohibiting virtual currencies and combating illegal financial activities related to them [2] Group 2: Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is seeking public opinion on the draft implementation measures for the supervision of the securities and futures market, aiming to enhance regulatory standardization [3] - The CSRC also released a draft announcement regarding the pilot program for commercial real estate investment trusts (REITs), outlining product definitions and regulatory responsibilities [4] Group 3: International Market Insights - Tokyo's core CPI for November rose by 2.8% year-on-year, slightly above market expectations, driven by increasing electricity prices [5] - Japan's industrial output increased by 1.4% month-on-month in October, exceeding market forecasts, primarily due to strong automobile production [5] Group 4: Bond Market Dynamics - On November 28, the bond market showed signs of recovery, with the yield on the 10-year government bond decreasing by 1.50 basis points to 1.8290% [10] - The secondary market for credit bonds saw significant price deviations, with some bonds experiencing price changes exceeding 10% [12] Group 5: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market saw major indices rise, with the China Securities Index for convertible bonds increasing by 0.68% on November 28 [22] - A total of 401 convertible bonds were traded, with 338 experiencing price increases [22]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, stated that real interest rates are very low, and even if the policy interest rate is raised, the overall environment will remain accommodative [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The USD/JPY exchange rate declined following Ueda's remarks [1] - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds increased by 4 basis points to 1.84%, marking the highest level since June 2008 [1] - The Tokyo Stock Exchange index saw an expanded increase of 1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's 2-year government bond yield has reached its highest level since 2008, indicating market expectations of a closer interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [1] Group 1: Bond Market - The 2-year Japanese government bond yield increased by 1 basis point to 1% [1] - The market is currently pricing in a 62% probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan during the policy decision on December 19, which is expected to rise to nearly 90% by the January meeting [1] - The Ministry of Finance plans to increase short-term debt issuance, adding 300 billion yen each for 2-year and 5-year bonds, and 6.3 trillion yen in treasury bills [1] Group 2: Currency Market - The yen appreciated against the dollar, rising by 0.3% to 155.77 [1] Group 3: Economic Policy - The increase in debt issuance is aimed at funding Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's economic stimulus plan, which is anticipated to put pressure on short-term Japanese government bonds [1]

·西太平洋银行：澳大利亚三季度GDP增速超预期，内需创12年最强 ·三菱日联银行：美联储主席人选更迭强化降息预期，美元承压 ·Investinglive分析师指出，日本最新数据显示，东京11月核心CPI同比上涨2.8%，连续高于央行2%的通 胀目标，叠加工业产出超预期回升，正强化市场对日本央行在未来数月重启加息周期的预期。日元跌至 10个月低点，加剧进口和食品价格上行压力；而政府内部对加息时机存在分歧，首相高市早苗部分顾问 主张在消费疲软与三季度经济萎缩背景下暂缓行动。在通胀顽固、日元疲软及薪资增长可信度提升的三 重支撑下，日本央行政策委员会倾向更早收紧货币政策。市场普遍预计，加息窗口已打开，可能于12月 或2026年初落地。 ·野村证券报告指出，印度通胀持续温和，为央行在12月5日政策会议上降息打开窗口。该行将此次会议 降息25个基点的概率上调至65%，维持利率不变的概率为35%。报告称，当前通胀水平已低于印度央行 的中期预测，且未来价格涨幅有望进一步放缓。不过，鉴于GDP增长仍具韧性、银行存贷比高企及外汇 市场波动风险，央行也可能选择观望，以择机最大化政策效果。野村维持对印度终端利率5.00%的预 测，意 ...

Core Inflation and Economic Indicators - Tokyo's core CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year in November, slightly above the market expectation of 2.7%, primarily driven by rising electricity prices, offsetting the slowdown in processed food price increases [1] - The industrial output in October unexpectedly increased by 1.4%, mainly due to strong automobile production, exceeding market expectations [1][3] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 2.6% in October, with a job-to-applicant ratio of 1.18, indicating a tight labor market [2] Inflation Drivers - The overall inflation in Tokyo remains sticky, largely driven by food costs, with rice prices soaring by 38.5%, and coffee beans and chocolate prices increasing by 63.4% and 32.5% respectively [2] - The number of price-increased items from major food companies in Japan is expected to reach 20,609 this year, a 64.6% increase from the previous year, indicating companies are passing on rising costs to consumers [2] Manufacturing Outlook - Despite the positive industrial output data, manufacturers expect a decline in production by 1.2% and 2.0% in November and December respectively, suggesting potential external demand shocks in the coming months [3] Interest Rate Hike Speculation - The recent economic data may bolster the Bank of Japan's confidence in the economic outlook, fueling speculation of a possible interest rate hike as early as December [4] - Analysts believe the window for an interest rate hike is approaching, with expectations of a tightening cycle resuming in the coming months [5] Yen's Role in Policy Decisions - The ongoing weakness of the yen is a critical variable influencing the policy shift, with warnings from Bank of Japan officials about the risks of delaying rate hikes [6] - The Japanese government has introduced a fiscal stimulus plan to alleviate living costs, complicating the timing of the central bank's decisions [6]