Core Viewpoint - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is critical for Wall Street, with expectations of a slowdown in job growth and potential implications for market sentiment and economic outlook [1][2][4]. Employment Data Expectations - The consensus for the May non-farm payroll report anticipates an increase of 126,000 jobs, a decrease from April's 177,000, and below the three-month average of 155,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.2% for the third consecutive month [2][6]. - Wage growth is projected to slightly decline year-over-year, with average hourly earnings expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, compared to 0.2% in April, and a year-over-year increase of 3.7%, down from 3.8% [3]. Job Market Indicators - Various leading indicators suggest a trend of slowing employment growth, including a disappointing ADP employment report showing only 37,000 new jobs in May, significantly below the expected 110,000 [7]. - Initial jobless claims rose from 216,000 to 226,000, and continuing claims increased from 1.833 million to 1.919 million, indicating a potential softening in the labor market [7]. Sector-Specific Insights - The leisure and hospitality sector is expected to be a significant drag on overall job growth, with projections of a loss of nearly 40,000 jobs in this area [8]. - Weather conditions in May, particularly higher-than-average rainfall in the East Coast and Southern regions, may have also suppressed hiring in leisure and construction sectors [8]. Impact of Tariffs and Policies - Analysts warn that tariffs may shift from a "tailwind" to a "headwind" for job growth, with affected industries likely to experience some weakness. In the six months leading up to April, these industries added nearly 200,000 jobs, but this trend may have peaked [11]. - The impact of immigration restrictions is expected to manifest in the coming months, potentially leading to a decrease in job growth, although the immediate effects in May are anticipated to be limited [13]. Market Reactions to Employment Data - The market is closely monitoring the non-farm payroll data, with a threshold of 100,000 jobs being a critical psychological level. A figure below this could trigger recession fears and end the current bull market [5][14]. - Goldman Sachs outlines a reaction matrix for the S&P 500 based on job growth figures, indicating that a number below 100,000 could lead to a decline of 2% to 3% in the index [14][18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the upcoming non-farm payroll data release and its implications for the U.S. labor market, with expectations of a slowdown in job growth and stable unemployment rates [2][3][4] - Analysts predict that non-farm employment is expected to increase by 126,000 in May, down from 177,000 in April, which is below the three-month average of 155,000 [2] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to remain steady at 4.2% for the third consecutive month, with wage growth expected to slightly decline year-on-year [2][4] Group 2 - Various leading indicators suggest a trend of gradually slowing employment growth, with the ADP employment report showing only 37,000 new jobs in May, significantly below the expected 110,000 [4] - Initial jobless claims rose from 216,000 to 226,000, indicating a potential increase in unemployment [4] - The ISM manufacturing employment index remains below 50 for the fourth consecutive month, indicating contraction in the sector [4] Group 3 - The impact of tariffs on employment growth is shifting from a "tailwind" to a "headwind," with expectations of weakness in trade-affected industries [7][8] - The government sector has seen job cuts, with expectations of a net increase of 10,000 government jobs, but federal job losses are expected to offset gains in state and local government employment [9] - Immigration restrictions are projected to have a delayed negative impact on employment, with current effects expected to be minimal [10] Group 4 - Market reactions to the non-farm payroll data are critical, with a threshold of 100,000 jobs being a psychological barrier that could trigger recession fears if not met [11][13] - Goldman Sachs suggests that ideal job growth for the stock market would be between 150,000 and 200,000, with lower figures potentially leading to significant market declines [11][12] - The S&P 500's performance is closely tied to the employment data, with various ranges of job growth correlating to specific expected movements in the index [12]

美联储戴利：目前尚不清楚移民政策的影响。 ...

明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利表示，美国贸易和移民政策的重大转变正在给美联储官员在9月前调整 利率制造不确定性。当前特朗普政府正与多国政府进行关税谈判。 最高法院上周裁定，美联储不受特朗普试图解雇独立联邦机构高官的影响。 尽管裁决允许特朗普撤换其他两家机构的官员，但法院明确表示该决定不适用于美联储，称美联储 是"结构独特、半私人的实体"。这一裁决似乎保护了主席鲍威尔免遭直接解职，但尚不清楚能否阻止特 朗普撤销其主席职务。 特朗普上月释放矛盾信号：4月17日在社交媒体发文称"迫不及待要炒掉鲍威尔"，数日后又对记者表示 无意撤换他。 卡什卡利周一指出，美国经济最大风险来自贸易壁垒和移民政策等重大新政的悬而未决。"我希望相关 谈判能更快取得进展，以提供政策确定性。" 卡什卡利坦言，"这种不确定性正在拖累经济活动，并给我们带来决策挑战，因为我们无法确定事态最 终走向，也就难以明确货币政策路径"。 过去一周，多名美联储政策制定者暗示，在关税政策及其经济影响明朗化之前，他们对利率调整的观望 态度可能持续数月。 特朗普上周晚些时候加剧了不确定性——他先是威胁对欧盟进口商品加征50%关税，随后将实施日期推 迟至7月9日。他还警 ...

智通财经5月21日电，旧金山联邦储备银行总裁戴利表示，特朗普政府的贸易、移民等政策的净影响仍 不明朗。 ...

美联储哈玛克：特朗普政府贸易、移民等政策的净效应仍不明朗。 ...

据报道，自特朗普再度入主白宫以来，其一系列政策引发轩然大波，国内矛盾愈发尖锐，尤其是关税政策与移民政 策，将联邦政府推向了风口浪尖。近期，美国20个州联合对特朗普政府发起诉讼，这一事件不仅是对移民政策的挑 战，也从侧面反映出关税政策所引发的广泛不满，似乎预示着美国在关税战中的败局已初现端倪。 特朗普（资料图） 这些强硬措施引发了多方面的反弹。一些州政府和市政府不愿配合，部分民众担忧加剧社会恐慌。而4月28日特朗 普签署的行政令，将联邦拨款与各州移民执法情况挂钩，更是成为了20个州联合诉讼的导火索。5月13日，伊利诺 伊州、加利福尼亚州、纽约州等20个州的总检察长代表各州，起诉美国交通部、国土安全部等部门及其负责人，认 为此举违反美国宪法规定的分权制衡原则，剥夺了国会财政支出权。加州总检察长罗布·邦塔直言，特朗普政府将与 移民执法无关的资金作为谈判筹码是"公然违法"。 加州总检察长罗布·邦塔（资料图） 移民政策争议不断的同时，特朗普的关税政策也让美国国内怨声载道，成为众矢之的。自1月20日上任以来，特朗 普政府肆意挥舞"关税大棒"，强推"对等关税"等措施，这一行为遭到了多方起诉。多家美国小企业因关税政策于4月 ...

Election Overview - The parliamentary election in Portugal on the 18th resulted in the center-right Social Democratic Party winning the most seats but failing to secure an absolute majority of 116 seats, making it unable to form a government alone [1] - The far-right "Enough" party achieved a record high vote share, becoming the biggest winner of the election [1] - The election was the third early parliamentary election in Portugal within less than four years, raising questions about the political stability and future governance [1] Rise of the Far-Right Party - The "Enough" party capitalized on widespread voter dissatisfaction regarding issues such as housing shortages, strained public healthcare resources, and frequent corruption scandals [2] - The traditional left-wing Socialist Party, which has been in power since 2015, saw a decline in support due to multiple corruption scandals and a lack of improvement in the living conditions of the populace, leading to a political crisis in 2024 [2] - The rise of the "Enough" party reflects a broader trend of far-right parties gaining traction across Europe, breaking Portugal's previous status as an exception [2] Future Political Landscape - Portugal operates under a parliamentary system with a unicameral legislature consisting of 230 members serving four-year terms [3] - The current political situation remains uncertain, particularly regarding whether President de Sousa will invite Prime Minister Montenegro to form a government [3] - Montenegro has ruled out forming a coalition with the "Enough" party, citing concerns over its reliability and stability, which poses significant governance challenges for any new government [3]

Core Points - The Democratic Union, led by current Prime Minister Montenegro, won the most seats in the Portuguese parliamentary elections but did not achieve the absolute majority required to form a government [1] - The Democratic Union received 32.1% of the votes, translating to 86 seats, while the Socialist Party garnered 23.38% of the votes for 58 seats, and the far-right "Enough" party also received 22.56% of the votes for 58 seats [1] - Key issues during the election included immigration policy, the cost of living crisis, and housing problems, with increasing voter concerns about political stability and economic welfare [1]

南非"新闻24小时"网站13日报道称，本月12日，首批由十多个家庭组成、共计59人的阿非利卡"难民"顺利抵达杜勒斯机场，他们手中挥舞着美国 国旗，并得到了美国常务副国务卿兰道、国土安全部副部长埃德加的接待。兰道在欢迎致辞中称："我们非常欢迎你们的到来。对于过去数年中你 们所经历的一切，我们深表理解与尊重。"据了解，阿非利卡人为荷兰殖民者后裔，曾是南非的统治阶级，即便在今天也绝非弱势群体。 【环球时报驻南非特派记者 邹松 环球时报特约记者 刘皓然】当地时间12日，美国首都华盛顿附近的杜勒斯国际机场迎来了一批身份特殊的"白人 难民"，美政府高官甚至到机场亲自迎接，令此次事件迅速成为媒体聚焦的热点。值得注意的是，自新政府成立以来，美国便持续收紧移民政策， 难民接收工作更是一度全面叫停。然而，面对这批南非白人，美国政府却一改常态，不仅为其入境大开方便之门，还通过"特事特办"的绿色通 道，打破既定移民规则，引发了各界的广泛质疑。 南非《星期日时报》称，自1994年南非结束种族隔离制度以来，白人群体依然牢牢掌握着殖民时期积累的巨额财富，坐拥全国约3/4的私人地产。 相比之下，黑人虽然占据全国81%的人口，却仅拥有全国4% ...