美国总统特朗普当地时间12月8日下午在白宫宣布，联邦政府将为美国农民提供规模为120亿美元的救 助，以应对美关税政策对美农业的"反噬"。 美国总统特朗普讨论农民援助计划现场 据美国农业部披露，这项计划的资金将流向玉米、棉花、高粱、大豆、水稻、小麦等农作物种植者，付 款将在明年2月底前完成。政府将先行发放110亿美元，并预留10亿美元，根据需要支持水果和蔬菜种植 者。 美国全国公共广播电台网站报道截图 业内人士称，美国政府基于经济和政治目的来实施当前的救助计划。 中国国际经济交流中心美欧研究部副部长张茉楠： 不过有分析认为，总体救助金额可能远低于农民近期的损失。按目前估算，120亿美元的纾困计划最多 只能覆盖农民目前三分之一的损失。北达科他州立大学高级研究经济学家肖恩·阿里塔估计，美国农户 今年秋收的损失将介于350亿至430亿美元之间。 张茉楠： 120亿美元看起来数字比较大，它会在短期内缓解美国农民一定的现金流压力或当前选情告急的状 况，但肯定弥补不了美国因出口市场萎缩和成本抬升带来的结构性缺口。再考虑到美国单个农户 明年美国将迎来中期选举，而共和党在农业州的选情比较吃紧，因此美国现政府希望通过这种政 策红 ...

【文/观察者网 熊超然】当地时间12月8日，美国总统特朗普在白宫召开的一场会议上宣布了一项价值 120亿美元的新计划，旨在帮助美国农民。 据《印度斯坦时报》当地时间12月9日报道，会议稍早前，肯尼迪大米公司（Kennedy Rice Mill）和四 姐妹大米公司（4Sisters Rice）创始人兼首席执行官、大米业大亨梅丽尔·肯尼迪（Meryl Kennedy）向特 朗普通报了有关大米价格下跌的情况。对此，特朗普表示，进口大米正在给国内生产商带来挑战，他决 心解决这一问题。 "说说印度的情况。为什么允许印度这样做？他们应该缴纳关税，难道大米可以免税吗？"特朗普在会议 现场问美国财政部长贝森特。 "不，总统先生，我们还在努力达成与他们的贸易协议，所以……"贝森特这样回答。 "是啊，但他们不应该倾销。我的意思是，我也从其他人那里听到了同样的说法，你们不能这样做。"未 等贝森特回答完，特朗普就已经这样插话说道。他还表示，将会处理印度涉嫌向美国倾销大米的问题。 特朗普和梅丽尔·肯尼迪在会议上交谈视频截图 综合《印度斯坦时报》报道以及现场视频，特朗普还收到了一份向美国"倾销"大米的国家名单，其中印 度、泰国甚至中国都 ...

Group 1 - The World Trade Organization (WTO) Appellate Body has been "inactive" for nearly six years due to the United States' unilateral and protectionist measures that undermine WTO principles [1][4] - Pascal Lamy, former WTO Director-General, suggests that the WTO must adapt to new realities and continue to operate even without U.S. participation [1][4] - Lamy emphasizes the urgent need for collective action to address climate change, as 90% of the global population is affected by environmental crises [1][3] Group 2 - Lamy identifies two main issues in international trade: the lack of enforceable regulations despite global agreements and the U.S.'s non-cooperation, which hampers international progress [4][6] - He advocates for a platform to address North-South tensions and believes that international trade and labor division can benefit the environment [4][5] - Lamy proposes a comprehensive forum on climate change and trade, emphasizing the need for open discussions based on expertise rather than negotiations [5] Group 3 - The transition from "fast globalization" to "slow globalization" is noted, with international trade still growing but at a slower pace [6][7] - Lamy highlights three characteristics of the current multilateral trade system: weaponization of trade, U.S. protectionism, and the rise of preventive trade measures due to public health and environmental concerns [6][8] - He points out that while the U.S. accounts for only 13% of global imports, the remaining 87% of countries can maintain a stable global trade system if not affected by protectionism [7] Group 4 - China is identified as a major player in global trade, with a projected total import and export value of 43.85 trillion yuan in 2024, a 5% increase year-on-year [9] - Lamy advises that companies must enhance their strategic flexibility and adaptability in response to geopolitical and technological changes [9][10] - Digitalization is recognized as a new variable affecting global trade, with digital technologies lowering transaction costs and facilitating service trade growth [10] Group 5 - Reform of the WTO is deemed necessary, particularly in balancing power between members and the secretariat to improve decision-making efficiency [10] - Lamy calls for the WTO to enhance trade facilitation in areas such as trade, environment, e-commerce, and subsidy disciplines [10]

另一方面，在高技术中间品领域，中国集成电路进口额达2.1万亿元，同比增长18%；芯片、航空航 天、汽车零部件等采购额均保持两位数增速，为韩国、日本、德国、美国等地的高端制造业提供了关键 需求与预期支撑。此外，随着"双碳"项目扎实推进，前三季度液化天然气、光伏组件制造设备、电池级 锂矿进口分别增长21%、34%、47%，来自挪威、智利、澳大利亚等国的企业切实分享了中国绿色转型 带来的市场红利。 当前，全球贸易保护主义思潮难以平息，一些西方国家屡屡展现自己在经贸事务上的双重标准。与西方 媒体的自我标榜形成鲜明对比的是，西方一些国家迭起波澜，不断加码贸易保护措施。荷兰政府以所 谓"国家安全"为名，运用行政手段直接干预商业并购，强行夺取安世半导体中国母公司闻泰科技在该国 子公司股权的行为，便是将经贸问题泛安全化、滥用国家力量破坏市场规则的典型案例。然而，经济全 球化本质是共赢的"正和之路"。妄自给中国贴上"以邻为壑"的标签，既罔顾事实，也与外国企业扎堆来 中国的选择相悖。今年以来，特斯拉上海超级工厂迎来第100万辆整车下线，苹果宣布追加在华研发投 资30亿元，空客天津第二条总装线正式开工……这些实实在在的项目，正是对 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent surge in copper prices is primarily driven by short-term supply disruptions, policy interventions, and the financialization of commodities, rather than a fundamental shift in global copper supply and demand dynamics [1][2][4] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price recently reached a historical high of $11,461 per ton, while domestic copper futures in China surpassed 90,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a significant increase in market sentiment and capital inflow, with domestic copper futures' capital exceeding 50 billion yuan [1] - Supply disruptions from major copper mines, including incidents in Indonesia, Chile, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, have led to a year-on-year decline in global copper production, exacerbating market fears [1][2] Group 2 - Despite rising prices, the global copper market is not expected to experience a fundamental supply-demand gap, with the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) predicting a slight surplus of 17,800 tons in 2025, transitioning to a shortfall of 15,000 tons by 2026 [2] - The increase in copper prices has been significantly influenced by speculative trading and expectations surrounding U.S. tariff policies, which have led to a regional supply-demand mismatch rather than a global shortage [2][3] - Emerging sectors such as AI data centers, renewable energy grids, and electric vehicles are anticipated to drive copper demand; however, the current growth in these areas is insufficient to offset the decline in traditional sectors, and high copper prices are accelerating the substitution of copper with aluminum [3][4] Group 3 - The global copper market is characterized by a phase of "short-term turbulence and long-term transformation," with structural issues such as insufficient mining investment and geopolitical factors threatening supply chain stability [4] - Future copper price trends will depend on three key variables: U.S. tariff policies, the actual realization of demand from AI and energy transitions, and the effective release of additional capacity through adjustments in global smelting and resource exploration investments [4] - The ongoing discussion of copper as the "new oil" highlights the need for a long-term transformation in the global copper supply-demand landscape, which is expected to take time to materialize [4]

然而，谁也没想到，这种温情脉脉的氛围，却在短短不到48小时内迎来了一个令人咋舌的"反转剧本"。 就在刚回到法国本土、脚跟还未站稳之际，马克龙在接受《回声报》采访时的腔调突然发生了180度的大转弯，这一次，不仅那副友善的面孔不见了，取而 代之的是一脸严肃的警告与几乎赤裸裸的威胁。 今年12月3日~5日法国总统马克龙访华，从媒体报道的情况来看他几乎是全程笑脸，说明他这次的中国之旅是十分开心愉快的。12月6日，他还在社交媒体 用中英文发帖"感谢中国如此热情的接待"。 这种"翻脸如翻书"的背后，是马克龙在国内政治生态中走钢丝的必然选择，如今的法国国内，并不是铁板一块，传统的制造业财团、面对中国商品冲击而日 益焦虑的本土企业主，构成了强大的压力集团。 他毫不避讳地声称，在中国期间已经向中方"把话挑明了"：如果中国不着手解决与欧盟日益扩大的贸易逆差问题，甚至是中国不按照欧洲的节奏来"平衡"这 种贸易关系，那么欧洲将不得不"被迫"效仿美国的强硬手段，在未来几个月内祭出关税大棒，甚至暂停部分合作。 马克龙还特意把欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩搬了出来，表示双方已经就此交换了意见，虽然他在话尾巴上又找补了一句"相信争端能和平解决"，但 ...

Group 1: WTO and Global Trade Dynamics - The WTO Appellate Body has been "inactive" for nearly six years due to the U.S. obstructing the appointment of members since 2017, leading to its official "shutdown" in December 2019 [1] - Pascal Lamy, former WTO Director-General, suggests that the WTO must adapt to new realities and continue to operate even without U.S. participation, as the U.S. has effectively withdrawn from the organization [1] - Lamy emphasizes the need for a platform to address the North-South tensions regarding climate change and trade, advocating for international trade and labor division to benefit the environment [3][4] Group 2: Environmental Concerns and Trade - Lamy identifies two main issues: the lack of enforceable regulations despite global agreements like the Paris Agreement, and the U.S.'s non-cooperation, which hampers international efforts [3] - He proposes that the world must pursue both open trade and environmental protection simultaneously, highlighting the complexity of balancing these objectives [4] - The rise of preventive trade protectionism, driven by public health and environmental concerns, is noted, with examples like carbon pricing mechanisms in China and Europe [6] Group 3: China's Role in Globalization - China's import and export value is projected to reach 43.85 trillion RMB in 2024, marking a 5% year-on-year increase, with exports growing by 7.1% and imports by 2.3% [7] - Lamy asserts that China will play a crucial role in the next phase of globalization, needing to balance its macroeconomic adjustments while expanding into emerging markets [7] - Companies are urged to enhance their strategic flexibility and adaptability in response to geopolitical and technological changes [7][8] Group 4: Digital Trade and Governance - Digital technology is reshaping global trade, lowering transaction costs and facilitating service trade growth, but differing data governance regulations create new barriers [8] - Establishing an international digital governance framework is critical for sustainable global trade development [8] - Lamy calls for reforms within the WTO to address systemic contradictions, such as the imbalance of power between members and the secretariat, which affects decision-making efficiency [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The World Trade Organization (WTO) appellate body has been "inactive" for nearly six years due to the United States' unilateral and protectionist measures, which have undermined the organization's principles and obstructed the appointment of appellate body members [2][3] Group 1: WTO's Current Situation - The WTO appellate body officially ceased operations on December 11, 2019, after over 20 years of functioning [2] - Pascal Lamy, former WTO Director-General, suggests that the WTO must adapt to new realities and continue to operate even without U.S. participation [2][3] - Lamy warns that avoiding large-scale wars and environmental degradation should be prioritized in the coming years, as 90% of the global population is affected by these crises [2] Group 2: Climate Change and Trade - Lamy emphasizes the need for a friendly trade environment to protect against the harmful effects of environmental degradation while utilizing Earth's resources more effectively [3][4] - There is a lack of consensus between developed and developing countries on addressing climate change, necessitating a platform to resolve North-South tensions [3] - Existing global agreements lack enforceable regulations, leading to fragmented actions that could escalate trade frictions [3][4] Group 3: Global Trade Regulations - Some global regulations have pointed the way to resolving trade disputes, but trade protectionism remains a significant barrier [4] - Lamy notes that developed countries often adopt avoidance strategies regarding climate issues, while some developing countries resist discussions that could lead to negotiations within the WTO [4][5] - A proposed comprehensive forum on climate change and trade could facilitate discussions based on expertise and openness, rather than formal negotiations [5] Group 4: The Future of Global Trade - Lamy argues that the world must pursue open trade, environmental protection, and domestic economic development simultaneously, especially for developing countries [5][6] - The transition from "fast globalization" to "slow globalization" is underway, with international trade still growing but at a slower pace [6] - The new normal of the multilateral trade system is characterized by trade weaponization, U.S. protectionism, and the rise of preventive trade measures due to public health and environmental concerns [6][7] Group 5: China's Role in Global Trade - China's total import and export value is projected to reach 43.85 trillion yuan in 2024, a 5% increase year-on-year, with exports growing by 7.1% and imports by 2.3% [7] - As a major player in global trade, China must balance its macroeconomic rebalancing with the need to explore emerging markets and optimize trade structures [7][8] Group 6: Digitalization and Trade - Digitalization is reshaping global trade dynamics by lowering transaction costs and facilitating service trade growth [8] - However, significant differences in data governance and regulatory frameworks across countries create new barriers for service trade [8] Group 7: Reforming the WTO - The WTO faces a systemic contradiction as the U.S. participates in decision-making while having withdrawn from its constraints [9] - Lamy calls for reforms to improve the WTO's structure and efficiency to better address complex new issues [9] - A rebalancing of power between members and the secretariat is necessary to enhance decision-making efficiency within the WTO [9]

美国港务局协会今年上半年统计发现，目前没有任何一家美国国内制造商在生产码头集装箱起重机。行 业调查显示，今后10年间美国计划采购151台码头起重机，其中约80%从中国采购。美国港务局协会会 长戴维斯表示，美国起重机制造业已经"消失了几十年"，对中国起重机征收高关税绝不会"像施魔法般 重振"美国起重机制造业。 《华尔街日报》直言，美国政府官员担心美方在港口设备方面过于依赖中国。近几十年来，中国已在造 船、集装箱和港口起重机制造等海事工业制造业领域占据主导地位。若停止从中国进口，美国一时很难 获得替代货源，同时，培育并提升本土制造能力也非易事。 美国港务局协会表示，除中国之外目前世界上只有少数几家公司生产可供国际采购的港口集装箱起重 机。包括芬兰科尼起重机、日本三井工程造船和瑞士利勃海尔。但美国港口运营商表示，这些起重机的 成本比中国产起重机至少高出15%，而且这些公司加起来的产能也无法满足美国每年约20台新起重机的 需求。虽然美国政府一直在推动建立本土起重机制造业，但美国航运业官员表示，建立一个国内产业需 数年时间，而且美国制造的起重机成本将高于亚洲和欧洲制造的起重机。（甄翔） 【环球时报综合报道】美国政府对中 ...

在全球经济复苏乏力的大背景下，作为世界第一大经济体的美国，其制造业领域正传来持续的坏消息。 当地时间12月1日，美国供应管理学会公布的最新数据，给美国制造业泼了一盆冷水。 制造业作为经济的压舱石，连续九个月的萎缩究竟意味着什么？关税这把双刃剑又为何没能成为复兴制造业的利器，反而让局面愈发棘手？ 11月制造业PMI从10月的48.7进一步跌至48.2，不仅低于市场普遍预期的49，更在萎缩区间里加速下滑。 熟悉行业指标的人都清楚，PMI以50为临界点，低于这一数值就意味着商业活动陷入收缩，而连续九个月处于临界点之下，足以说明美国制造业的疲软并非 短期波动。 从指数构成来看，情况同样不容乐观，构成PMI的五个子指数中，新订单、就业、库存等四个核心指标均处于收缩区间。 11月美国制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）再度下滑，这一关键数据的变动不仅是一串冰冷的数字，更折射出其产业政策背后的深层矛盾。 但现实却是，高附加值带来的优势正在被不断侵蚀，订单下滑和原材料价格上涨的双重压力，让不少工厂主倍感煎熬。 或许有人会疑问，此前美国政府停摆结束后，市场曾期待制造业活动能有所回暖，为何最终却事与愿违？这背后，除了短期因素的冲击，更 ...