值得深思的是，特朗普关税政策的代价或将远超预期。历史经验表明，2018年中美贸易战期间，美国农 民和制造业者承担了约90%的关税成本，而此次全面加税可能使普通家庭年均支出增加逾千美元。更深 远的影响在于供应链重构——企业被迫将资源投入地缘政治避险而非效率优化，这种"逆全球化"操作最 终会反映在生产率增速的持续低迷上。世界银行的预警实则为全球经济敲响警钟：当保护主义成为主流 选择，复苏的代价将由所有人共同支付。 世界银行周二（6月10日）发布的《全球经济展望》报告为2025年全球经济描绘了一幅阴郁图景。这份 报告虽未直接点名特朗普，但字里行间透露出其激进的贸易政策正成为拖累经济的关键变量。美国经济 增长预期被大幅下调至1.4%，较2024年的2.8%近乎腰斩，与半年前2.3%的乐观预测形成鲜明对比。这 一调整背后，是特朗普政府拟对全球输美商品加征10%关税的阴影——这项政策若落地，不仅将推高美 国企业成本、加剧通胀压力，更可能引发连锁式贸易报复，进一步压缩全球经济增长空间。 全球经济的韧性正在经受考验。世界银行同步将2025年全球增速预期下调0.4个百分点至2.3%，较去年 下降0.5个百分点，距离衰退警戒线仅 ...

中美经贸磋商一天没谈完，特朗普直呼"中国不好对付"，这轮博弈下来，华盛顿有三个没想到。当地时间6月9日，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国伦敦举 行。这轮磋商引发了全球关注，中美两个最大的经济体是否能够在贸易问题上达成共识，关系到全球经济未来的走向。 从4月初特朗普推出"解放日"关税以来，华盛顿有三个没想到。首先就是，特朗普原本想用贸易问题拿捏中国，但没想到的是，到今天为止，迫切想解决贸 易问题的反而成了美国。此前特朗普几次三番要求与中国对话，日内瓦会谈后美国又屡次三番批评中国"行动太慢"，都暴露了华盛顿的焦虑情绪。 更让华盛顿没想到的是，贸易战的局面已经发生了翻天覆地的变化。以前的是美国单方面施压，在高科技产品上卡中国脖子，而现在中国反而抓住了美国的 软肋。一个关键的变量就是中国的稀土出口管制。新加坡《联合早报》就评论说，美国用芯片围困中国，中国则用稀土将了美国的军。 图为稀土矿产开采 图为美方代表团代表贝森特 美方显然也是十分重视。上个月中美在日内瓦举行高层会谈的时候，美方的代表是财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔。而这次伦敦磋商，华盛顿又在贝森特 与格里尔之外，派出了商务部部长卢特尼克。相比双方在日内瓦达成的临 ...

今天特别高兴，因为我们要共同见证国内外知名学者郑永年教授新作《论单边开放》的国内首发式，这 部著作以深邃的历史视角和前瞻性的全球化战略思维，揭示了中国单边开放的独特路径及其世界意义， 这里我想用10多分钟时间，讲一个主题，"中国单边开放是世界近代史的奇迹"。 为什么说是近代史上的奇迹呢？ 我想有三点理由： 第一，中国的单边开放是对全球化逻辑和规则的创造性的突破。 回顾世界近代史，西方主导的"全球化"长期遵循"对等开放"原则，甚至以武力强迫他国打开市场，而中 国改革开放实践，尤其是加入WTO后的主动单边开放，打破了这一传统逻辑和规则。我们主动降低关 税，关税水平从加入WTO时承诺的平均关税15.3%降到7.4%，大大低于绝大多数发展中国家。参加这次 会议的WTO前总干事帕斯卡尔告诉我，中国是WTO的最好学生，是优等生。我们多次简化和放宽外资 准入，到2023年底，中国累计吸引外资总额达3.3万亿美元，在华外资企业已达66万户，连续30年位居 发展中国家首位。我们设立了自贸区和自贸港。中国不断地改善营商环境和加强知识产权的保护。中国 现已成为全球外商投资的"首选地"。 当前全球化遭遇逆流，单边主义、贸易保护主义和 ...

Group 1 - China has implemented export controls on rare earths three times since the end of last year, impacting various industries including electric vehicles, semiconductors, and military sectors, particularly in the United States [1] - The recent issuance of temporary export licenses for rare earths to three major American automakers is seen as a strategic move by China, rather than a complete cessation of supply [5][7] - China's dual objectives are to exert pressure on its competitors to alter their protectionist trade practices while maintaining its dominant position in the rare earth market [9] Group 2 - In response to the U.S. imposing a 34% tariff on Chinese goods, China enacted export controls on seven categories of medium and heavy rare earths in April, which took immediate effect [11] - Key rare earth elements like gadolinium, terbium, and dysprosium are critical for U.S. military applications, with the F-47 fighter jet requiring 8-12 kilograms of rare earths, double that of the F-35 [13] - The U.S. is heavily reliant on China for rare earths, with 83.7% of imports in 2024 coming from China, and a staggering 97% dependency on heavy rare earths [13][19] Group 3 - China controls 90% of global rare earth refining capacity and holds 37 high-purity extraction patents, giving it a significant technological advantage [17] - In 2023, China's rare earth production reached 240,000 tons, accounting for two-thirds of global output, with reserves of 44 million tons, representing 40% of the world's total [19] - The U.S. faces a long road to re-establishing a complete supply chain for rare earths, with estimates suggesting it could take at least 20 years [21] Group 4 - China's strategy of "controlled release" of rare earths aims to keep competitors in a state of dependency, balancing pressure and supply to align with its national interests [23] - To maintain its long-term advantage, China must combat smuggling of rare earth materials and enhance resource recycling, particularly from waste electric motors [25] - The recent adjustments in China's rare earth export policy demonstrate strategic acumen, effectively constraining competitors while solidifying its market dominance [27]

当地时间6月8日，墨西哥雇主联合会发表声明称，美国对钢铝产品加倍征收关税的单边行为违背了美墨 加协定("美国-墨西哥-加拿大协定")的合作精神，将直接威胁北美地区关键产业的竞争力。除呼吁美国 停止经济战影响私营企业外，联合会还要求启动美墨加协定机制，包括向贸易专家组提出争议申诉，在 优先行业实施对等关税，同时制定多元化出口市场和提振内需等战略，降低对美国依赖。联合会表示， 钢铁贸易的双边关系对墨美两国都至关重要，清晰公正规则的贸易应当优于扭曲市场的保护主义观点。 有必要营造具有法律确定性的投资环境，并推行促进创新与竞争力的产业政策。(央视新闻) ...

在钢铝关税政策搅动国际经济局势之时，中美关系也迎来新动态。特朗普通过社交媒体宣布，6月9日， 美国财政部长贝森特、商务部长卢特尼克以及贸易代表格里尔将在英国伦敦会见中方代表，就贸易协议 进行磋商，并且特朗普预期此次会晤将取得积极成果。 从特朗普近期一系列表现来看，他对此次谈判相当重视。此前与中方通话后，其态度出现明显变化，语 气变得和缓，在涉及中美贸易等问题的表态上，不再像以往那般强硬。例如在社交媒体发文时，不仅没 有大量使用感叹号，文末还加上"感谢您对此事的关注"这样友善的话语。这种态度转变或与他面临的诸 多压力有关。 据环球网援引彭博社等外媒报道，当地时间6月3日，美国白宫发表声明，特朗普签署行政令，自美国东 部时间4日凌晨起，将进口钢铁和铝及其衍生制品的关税从25%大幅提高至50%。这一政策震动国际市 场，也与当下复杂的中美关系相互交织，折射出全球政治经济格局的新变化。 特朗普政府给出的关税上调理由，一是所谓维护国家安全。在白宫发布的行政令中提到，之前25%的进 口关税未能让国内钢铝产业达到并维持必要产能利用率，提高关税旨在减少或消除进口钢铝产品对美国 国家安全的威胁。二是期望提升国内钢铝产业竞争力。美 ...

Core Insights - China has approved certain qualified rare earth export applications and is preparing to deepen dialogue with various countries regarding export controls, indicating a shift in its export policy [1][3] - As the largest producer of rare earths, China accounts for approximately 70% of global rare earth mining and 90% of refining output, using this leverage in international trade negotiations [3] - The temporary export licenses granted to major US automakers, including General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis, serve as a critical lifeline amid supply chain disruptions [5] Group 1 - China acknowledges the growing global demand for medium and heavy rare earths due to the expansion of civilian sectors like robotics and electric vehicles [1] - The recent policy adjustments reflect China's strategy to balance its resource protection with the need to maintain its dominant position in the rare earth market [3] - The issuance of temporary export licenses is contingent on the sincerity of the US in trade negotiations, highlighting China's cautious approach to resource management [5] Group 2 - The approval of export applications is part of China's broader strategy to engage in international dialogue while managing its rare earth resources [1][3] - The temporary nature of the export licenses, valid for at least six months, indicates that future decisions will depend on the evolving trade relationship with the US [5] - China's willingness to expedite rare earth export approvals for European companies further emphasizes its intent to maintain a competitive edge in the global market [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the uncertainty in the U.S. economy due to the Trump administration's trade policies, which are characterized by a mix of aggressive tariff increases and temporary relaxations, creating a unique policy volatility trajectory [3] - The consensus in the economic community indicates that consumer confidence and spending capacity will be crucial in determining whether the U.S. economy falls into recession, with historical data showing that a year-on-year growth rate of over 3% in consumer spending can help the economy withstand external shocks [3] - The dynamic balance between policy volatility and consumer confidence is becoming a key battleground affecting the U.S. economic outlook [3] Group 2 - The current sentiment in the silver market is optimistic but cautious, with long-term undervaluation driving market enthusiasm for buying, while short-term technical indicators suggest overbought conditions [4] - Despite the U.S. dollar index rebounding near the 99 mark, silver maintains its strength, indicating that its upward momentum is not solely dependent on safe-haven demand or dollar weakness, but has independent driving logic [4] - Structural bullish confidence in silver is expected to provide ongoing financial support for the market [4]

交易行情热点 热点一：央行连续7个月增持黄金，释放什么信号？ 近期，黄金价格开启高位震荡行情，COMEX黄金周涨幅达-1.31%，收3331.0美元/盎司；伦敦金周涨幅 达-1.26%，收3309.7200美元/盎司。 21世纪经济报道记者 翁榕涛 实习生 赖桂筠 广州报道 周内（6月2日至6月6日），黄金价格高位震荡，贵金属表现强势，黑色系板块和集运欧线领跌，原油领 涨，而部分农产品受供需格局变化影响持续承压。这种"冰火两重天"的市场表现，折射出当前全球经济 复苏步伐不一、地缘政治因素扰动以及国内产业政策调整等多重复杂因素的交织影响。 就国内期货市场具体来看，能源化工板块，燃油周下跌0.10%、原油上涨1.71%、碳酸锂上涨0.23%；黑 色系板块，焦炭周下跌1.44%、焦煤下跌0.13%、铁矿石下跌0.56%；基本金属板块，沪金周下跌 1.09%、沪锌下跌0.38%、沪银上涨0.62%；农产品板块，生猪周下跌0.15%、棕榈油上涨0.07%、豆粕上 涨0.60%；航运板块，集运欧线周下跌4.35%。 花旗集团近期将黄金价格短期内的预测重新上调至每盎司3500美元，该机构表示，其核心逻辑在于美国 政府关税政 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's recent approval for a limited quantity of rare earth exports signals a strategic shift aimed at balancing economic interests and geopolitical pressures, particularly in response to trade tensions with the US and its allies [2][5]. Group 1: Export Policy Changes - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced the approval of certain rare earth export applications, indicating a controlled release of these resources rather than a complete ban [2]. - This policy adjustment comes after three rounds of export controls since late last year, which have significantly impacted various industries, including electric vehicles, semiconductors, and military sectors in multiple countries [2][5]. Group 2: Strategic Objectives - China's dual objectives are to inflict economic pain on adversaries to encourage a shift away from trade protectionism while maintaining its leverage in the rare earth market [5]. - The recent export controls were partly a response to heightened trade tensions following the US's imposition of tariffs, which have been described as a "day of liberation" by former President Trump [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - China holds 33.8% of the world's rare earth reserves, but it dominates the refining process, accounting for 90% of global production, highlighting its critical role in the supply chain [7]. - Despite being the largest reserve holder, China's influence stems from its efficient production and processing capabilities, with two-thirds of US-mined rare earths being sent to China for processing [7]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The strategy of "controlled release" aims to keep competitors in a state of dependency, ensuring they cannot easily replace Chinese rare earths while also preventing a complete market shutdown [9]. - China plans to combat smuggling of rare earth materials and enhance resource recovery through circular economy initiatives to safeguard its strategic resources [9].