Core Viewpoint - Brazilian Finance Ministry official Melo indicated that there is room for negotiation with the United States following Trump's announcement of tariffs, suggesting potential diplomatic engagement despite the tensions [1] Group 1 - Brazil may consider imposing tariffs on imports as a retaliatory measure, although this action has not yet been confirmed [1]

Group 1: Tariff Negotiations - On July 7, Trump extended the suspension of reciprocal tariffs originally set to expire on July 9, notifying 21 countries of tariffs ranging from 20% to 40% effective August 1[3] - The tariffs primarily target Asian and African countries, with Japan and South Korea facing a 25% tariff, while Laos and Myanmar face a 40% tariff[3] - Compared to the April 2 tariff list, the new tariffs show minimal changes, with Cambodia and Sri Lanka receiving lower tariffs by 13% and 14% respectively[4] Group 2: Trade Negotiation Objectives - The main goal of U.S. trade negotiations is to reduce tariffs imposed by other countries on U.S. goods, particularly in agriculture, energy, and automotive sectors[5] - The U.S. has made progress with countries like the UK, which agreed to increase beef imports from 1,000 tons to 13,000 tons, while the U.S. will reduce auto tariffs to 10-25%[5] - Ongoing negotiations with Japan have stalled due to strict agricultural protection policies, particularly regarding rice imports[5] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the issuance of tariff letters, the U.S. stock market reacted mildly, with a less than 1% drop on July 7 and a subsequent recovery on July 9[9] - The market's sensitivity to tariff negotiations has decreased since the easing of U.S. tariff policies from April to June, indicating a shift towards fundamental trading[9] - Future developments in tariff policies and their impact on the U.S. economy and corporate sectors will be closely monitored, especially with upcoming CPI data releases[9]

Core Viewpoint - The EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, stated that negotiations with the United States regarding tariffs have not yielded any results, and the EU does not wish to take retaliatory measures [1] Group 1 - The EU is currently engaged in tariff negotiations with the United States [1] - No progress has been made in the ongoing discussions about tariffs [1] - The EU aims to avoid implementing any retaliatory actions in response to the tariff negotiations [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The overseas market is affected by the hawkish signals from key figures of the Federal Reserve, and the market's over - pricing of interest rate cuts may lead to fluctuations. The repeated Trump tariffs also add difficulties to subsequent negotiations. In the domestic market, the CPI turned positive in June 2025, while the negative value of PPI expanded, squeezing industrial enterprise profits. The continuous stable - growth policies and loose monetary policies cause the A - share market to fluctuate in sector rotation. The market still needs time to adjust, and the index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the dumbbell strategy remaining unchanged [2][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 227,000, lower than the expected 235,000 and the previous value of 232,000, indicating the resilience of the US labor market. Different Federal Reserve officials have different views on monetary policy. Some suggest a higher probability of interest rate hikes, while others support two interest rate cuts this year. The market is currently pricing in interest rate cuts, but there may be short - term fluctuations. In terms of tariffs, the US - Vietnam tariff negotiation has changed from 11% to 20%, which may have a negative impact on the US's negotiations with other countries. Overnight, the US dollar index rose slightly, the short - end US Treasury yield rebounded, gold closed up, crude oil fell, the three major US stock indexes rose slightly, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose, and the offshore RMB exchange rate appreciated slightly [1][4]. 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.47%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.22%. The market showed a pattern of index rebound but stock polarization. The banking sector contributed significantly to the index, and the brokerage and real estate sectors continued to support the market in the afternoon. Only some sectors such as photovoltaic and rare earths showed performance, and there was no sustainability in sector trends. Among the primary sectors, real estate, petroleum and petrochemical, steel, and non - bank finance led the gains, while automobile, media, military, and electronics led the losses. There were 2,945 rising stocks and 2,278 falling stocks in the whole market [2][5]. 1.3 Important News - **Federal Reserve Officials' Statements**: Multiple Federal Reserve officials have expressed their views. Some believe that the impact of tariffs on inflation may not be clear until the end of the year, and the US fiscal deficit may become a financial stability issue in the future. Others consider implementing interest rate cuts in the fall and believe there will be two cuts this year [6]. - **Regulatory Proposals**: The Federal Reserve proposed to relax the supervision of large - scale banks [8]. - **Global Trade Progress**: The US Secretary of Commerce will visit Japan next week. The EU - US tariff negotiation is accelerating, with the automobile industry being the EU's "red line". Brazil may request the cancellation of tariffs, and Chile seeks exemption from US copper tariffs. Vietnam disagreed with the tariff rate announced by Trump [8]. - **China - related News**: China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiation is fully completed and will sign the protocol within this year. The Ministry of Finance excludes EU enterprises from participating in medical device government procurement projects worth over 45 million RMB. The Ministry of Commerce has launched a special campaign against the smuggling of strategic minerals exports and is in close communication with the US on economic and trade issues [8][9]. 1.4 Today's Strategy - Pay attention to the possible fluctuations caused by the market's over - pricing of interest rate cuts due to the hawkish signals from key Federal Reserve figures. The repeated Trump tariffs make subsequent negotiations more difficult. In the domestic market, due to the situation of CPI and PPI and the continuous policies, the A - share market fluctuates in sector rotation. The market needs time to adjust, and the index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the dumbbell strategy remaining unchanged [10]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Market Performance**: The report provides the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change ratios, basis, and other information of various futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index [12]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: It presents the trading volume, trading volume changes, trading amount, trading amount changes, open interest, open interest changes, and other data of different futures contracts, as well as the positions of the top 20 members [13]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - **Spot Market Performance**: The report shows the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price change ratios, trading amounts, and other information of various indexes such as the Wind All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, and Shenzhen Component Index. It also provides the performance of different sectors, including upstream, mid - stream, consumer, TMT, large - scale finance, and public utility sectors [36]. - **Market Style Impact**: The influence of different market styles (cycle, consumption, growth, finance, and stability) on the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index is analyzed, including the number of stocks, weights, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions [37][38]. - **Valuation and Other Indicators**: The valuation and historical quantile data of important indexes and Shenwan sectors are presented, as well as information on market average daily trading volume, turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks, index trading amount changes, risk - return ratio, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balance, and margin trading net purchase amount [41][43][45]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report shows the central bank's open - market operations and the SHIBOR interest rate level [51][52][53].

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 11 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 当日行情： 银行间流动性边际收敛、A 股走强以及监管指导压降银行投债比例传闻压制 债市，国债期货震荡走低、全线下跌。 利率现券： 银行间各主要期限利率现券收益率全面上行，至下午 16：30，10 年国债活跃 券 250011 收益率报 1.659%上行 1.4bp。 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货7月10日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 商 品 研 究 2025 年 07 月 11 日 铜：库存持续增加，价格承压 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 78,600 | 0.26% | 78590 | -0.01% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,682 | 0.23% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 99,231 | -63,363 | 181,068 | -12,931 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 18,905 | -19,293 | 280,000 | 128 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 21,729 | 393 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 108,100 | 975 | 37.88% | 2.18% | | ...

Group 1 - The U.S. will impose tariffs of 50% on Brazilian goods starting August 1, which is the highest rate announced so far [1] - Brazil's government plans to focus on markets in the Middle East and South Asia due to the tariffs and has expressed intentions to negotiate with the U.S. [1] - Brazil's economy is significant, being the largest in Latin America and ranking among the top ten globally, with key industries including petrochemicals, mining, and automotive [1] Group 2 - The direct trigger for the U.S. tariffs on Brazil is a disagreement over trade statistics, with the U.S. claiming a trade deficit while Brazil disputes this based on service trade inclusion [2] - Political factors also play a role, as President Trump has criticized the Brazilian government regarding investigations into former President Bolsonaro, threatening tariffs if these do not cease [2] - Other countries, such as India, are also responding to U.S. tariffs with plans for retaliatory measures, indicating a broader trend of trade tensions [2] Group 3 - Trump's unilateral tariff decisions suggest that negotiations with affected parties have not yielded satisfactory results, impacting allies like Japan and South Korea [3]

据央视新闻7月11日消息，在美国宣布将自8月1日起对巴西商品征收50%关税后，当地时间7月10日，巴 西总统卢拉接受采访时表示，巴西将与美国进行关税谈判，若无效将采取对等反制措施。 当地时间9日，巴西政府称，已告知美国大使馆，将退回美国总统特朗普当天发送的信函，并决定召见 美国驻巴西临时代办埃斯科瓦尔，要求其对信函中关于前总统博索纳罗的部分作出解释。 美国总统特朗普9日对外发布致巴西总统卢拉的信函，除了威胁将对进口自巴西的产品征收50%的关税 外，他还在信函中宣称，"卢拉正在对巴西前总统博索纳罗展开政治迫害，应立即停止"。对此，巴西总 统卢拉9日表示，巴西不会接受被任何人控制，对于美国单方面宣布提高巴西出口产品的关税，巴西将 予以回应。 巴西前总统博索纳罗目前正在接受巴西最高法院的调查。博索纳罗在2022年10月的总统选举中落败。 2023年1月8日，部分博索纳罗支持者冲击巴西国会、总统府和联邦最高法院，造成严重破坏。巴西检察 机构指控博索纳罗与多名高级幕僚共同策划政变，试图推动军事干预以推翻选举结果。 图片来源：央视新闻 卢拉表示，巴西将优先尝试进行关税谈判，并就美方单边加征关税措施在世界贸易组织提起诉讼。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the United States and Brazil, particularly focusing on the U.S. decision to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods starting August 1, and Brazil's response to negotiate and potentially retaliate if necessary [1] Group 1: U.S. Tariff Announcement - The U.S. announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods effective August 1 [1] - This decision is part of a broader trade strategy that may impact various sectors within Brazil's economy [1] Group 2: Brazil's Response - Brazilian President Lula stated that Brazil will prioritize negotiations with the U.S. regarding the tariffs [1] - If negotiations fail, Brazil will implement reciprocal measures, including a 50% tariff on U.S. exports to Brazil [1] - Brazil plans to file a complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO) against the U.S. unilateral tariff increase [1] Group 3: Economic Reciprocity Law - Brazil's Economic Reciprocity Law, effective April 2025, allows for the suspension of commercial benefits and investment obligations in response to unfavorable measures from other countries [1] - This law provides a legal framework for Brazil to respond to the U.S. tariffs and protect its international competitiveness [1] Group 4: Political Context - U.S. President Trump accused President Lula of political persecution against former President Bolsonaro in a letter accompanying the tariff announcement [1] - Lula emphasized Brazil's sovereignty and refusal to be controlled by external pressures regarding trade policies [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a strong performance in the securities sector, with the CSI All Share Securities Company Index rising by 1.34% as of July 10, 2025, and specific stocks like China Merchants Securities and Hongta Securities seeing significant gains of 10.03% and 6.09% respectively [3] - The ETF fund tracking the securities index also showed positive movement, increasing by 1.38% to a latest price of 1.32 yuan, with a cumulative rise of 1.40% over the past week [3] - Dongguan Securities noted that July is a critical period for tariff negotiations and economic observations, suggesting that the external environment affecting A-shares is becoming less disruptive, which may sustain positive market sentiment [3] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI All Share Securities Company Index as of June 30, 2025, include Dongfang Wealth, CITIC Securities, and Guotai Junan, collectively accounting for 60.45% of the index [3] - The management fee rate for the ETF fund is set at 0.15%, with a custody fee of 0.05%, positioning it as one of the lowest fee options in the sector [4] - The performance of individual stocks within the ETF shows varying increases, with CITIC Securities rising by 1.73% and Dongfang Wealth by 1.31%, reflecting a generally positive trend among major players [6]