Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Concern should be given to the possibility of Milan becoming the new Fed Chair. After Milan's statement, both domestic and foreign silver prices showed strength due to expectations of loose monetary policy, and the price of the main contract of Shanghai silver reached a new historical high. It is recommended to buy on dips in the current precious metals strategy, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold being 843 - 870 yuan/gram and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver being 9799 - 10800 yuan/kilogram [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - On September 23, 2025, Shanghai gold rose 1.46% to 850.98 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 1.77% to 10348.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 0.06% to 3777.40 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.13% to 44.27 dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was reported at 4.15%, and the US dollar index was reported at 97.31 [2] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic is temporarily reluctant to support another rate cut in October due to inflation concerns. Cleveland Fed President Harmark, a hawkish Fed official, said that the Fed needs to be cautious about lifting restrictive monetary policies when inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target [2] - Milan, the candidate for the new Fed Chair, is a voting member who supports a 150 - basis - point rate cut this year. He believes there is no inflation caused by tariffs, and the longer the Fed maintains a tight stance, the greater the risk to the employment market. He will strive to persuade other policymakers to cut rates more quickly [3] Strategy Views - Attention should be paid to the possibility of Milan becoming the new Fed Chair. After Milan's statement, the prices of domestic and foreign silver showed strength, and the price of the main contract of Shanghai silver reached a new historical high. It is recommended to buy on dips in the precious metals strategy, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold being 843 - 870 yuan/gram and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver being 9799 - 10800 yuan/kilogram [4] Key Data - Gold: COMEX gold's closing price, trading volume, open interest, and inventory all showed an upward trend; LBMA gold's closing price rose 1.54%; SHFE gold's closing price and open interest increased, while trading volume decreased slightly; Au(T + D)'s closing price and open interest rose, and trading volume decreased [8] - Silver: COMEX silver's closing price, trading volume, open interest, and inventory all showed an upward trend; LBMA silver's closing price rose 3.55%; SHFE silver's closing price, trading volume, and open interest increased, while inventory decreased; Ag(T + D)'s closing price, trading volume, and open interest all rose [8] Price and Volume Charts - Multiple charts show the relationships between the prices of COMEX gold, Shanghai gold, COMEX silver, and Shanghai silver and factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, trading volume, and open interest, as well as the near - far month structures and price differences between different markets [10][12][14] Price Difference Statistics - On September 22, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference for gold was - 65.69 dollars/ounce, and the SGE - LBMA price difference was - 34.12 dollars/ounce; the SHFE - COMEX price difference for silver was 1.02 dollars/ounce, and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 0.79 dollars/ounce [55]

Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The US stock market showed mixed performance with the Dow Jones up 0.05%, Nasdaq up 0.31%, and S&P 500 up 0.18% as of September 22 [1] - Tesla's stock rose nearly 3.6% after several institutions raised their target prices, with Baird upgrading its rating to "outperform" and predicting a price of $3000 by 2035 [1] - Alibaba's stock increased by nearly 1%, supported by a report from Citigroup highlighting a new in-store group buying promotion coinciding with the travel peak season [1] - Apple saw a rise of over 3%, reaching an 8-month high, with Wedbush Securities setting the highest target price on Wall Street at $310 [1] Group 2: Company Developments - Baidu's stock rose over 4% following the launch of its new visual understanding model Qianfan-VL, which is optimized for enterprise-level multimodal applications [3] - Metsera, a developer of anti-obesity drugs, saw its stock surge over 60% amid reports that Pfizer is nearing a deal to acquire the company for up to $7.3 billion [4][5] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points has led to increased expectations of further cuts, which is a key driver behind the recent highs in the US stock market [7][8] - Concerns are rising regarding the US long-term treasury market performance and potential budget battles in Congress, which could impact market confidence [7][8] - Gold prices reached a new high of $3728 per ounce, driven by multiple factors including the Fed's rate cut and weak economic data [10][15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the internal conflict within the Republican Party, highlighting how President Trump, who initially pressured the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, faces unexpected opposition from his own party members who propose legislation that could restrict the Fed's ability to implement such policies [1][5][6]. Group 1: Economic Impact - Trump's imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" has led to significant economic consequences, including rising prices, soaring inflation, factory closures, and job losses [3]. - The Federal Reserve, under pressure from Trump, lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with expectations of two more cuts by the end of the year [4]. Group 2: Legislative Developments - A new proposal titled the "Price Stability Act of 2025" has been introduced by Republican members of Congress, which aims to eliminate the Fed's dual mandate and focus solely on controlling inflation [5][6]. - If passed, this legislation would require the Fed to raise interest rates whenever the Consumer Price Index (CPI) exceeds 3%, effectively limiting its ability to lower rates as Trump desires [5]. Group 3: Internal Party Dynamics - The article suggests that the internal conflict is not merely a policy disagreement but may reflect deeper issues within the Republican Party, including a faction of conservatives seeking to restrain Trump's influence over monetary policy [6][7]. - Allegations arise that Vice President Vance is secretly orchestrating efforts to undermine Trump, positioning himself for a potential presidential run should Trump falter [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The current bullish trend in the gold market is expected to continue, with potential for gold prices to reach $4,000 per ounce by year-end, driven by the Federal Reserve's easing policies and persistent inflation pressures [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Spot gold prices have recently surpassed the previous record high set on the day of the Federal Reserve's decision, reaching $3,719 per ounce [1]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points has been a significant catalyst for the gold market, pushing prices to a historical peak of $3,707.40 per ounce [3]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have surged nearly 40%, a rare occurrence in historical terms [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policy - The Fed's rate cut is seen as a response to labor market risks, with indications that further cuts may occur in upcoming meetings, providing potential support for gold prices [3]. - The Fed's dot plot suggests two more rate cuts may happen this year, but there is no commitment to immediate action, leading some investors to take profits [3]. Group 3: Bond Market and Its Impact on Gold - The U.S. Treasury market has shown mixed signals, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.141%, reversing a previous downtrend driven by rate cut expectations [4]. - Rising Treasury yields typically enhance the dollar's attractiveness, which can exert downward pressure on gold prices; however, this pressure may be temporary due to global central bank policies [4]. Group 4: Global Demand and Geopolitical Factors - Global physical demand for gold remains strong, particularly in emerging markets, as evidenced by India's gold premium reaching a 10-month high despite rising prices [4]. - Central banks worldwide continue to purchase gold as a means of de-dollarization and reserve diversification, contributing to a 43% increase in ETF holdings, reaching a historical high [5]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Market sentiment has shifted, with 58% of retail investors optimistic about gold's upward trend, down from previous bullish enthusiasm [6]. - Analysts predict gold prices may stabilize around $3,600 in the short term, with strong long-term support anticipated due to upcoming rate cuts [6]. - Key economic data releases this week, including U.S. PCE inflation reports, will significantly influence the likelihood of further Fed rate cuts and gold price movements [7].

Group 1 - The main contract of Shanghai silver futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 10,287.00 yuan, with a current price of 10,278.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 3.42% [1] - Institutions predict that the precious metals market may enter a range-bound oscillation pattern, with the Shanghai silver main contract expected to operate within a range of 9,799 to 10,800 yuan per kilogram [2][3] - The market sentiment for precious metals is becoming cautious after previous highs, with future price movements dependent on upcoming economic data and Federal Reserve officials' statements [2] Group 2 - The recent comments from Fed Governor Milan have significantly influenced market expectations regarding monetary policy, comparable to Powell's statements at the Jackson Hole meeting [3] - The strategy for precious metals suggests a focus on buying on dips, with the Shanghai silver main contract's reference range set between 9,799 and 10,800 yuan per kilogram [3]

Core Insights - The current trading price of London gold is around $3,690, with a recent price of $3,690.66 per ounce, reflecting a slight increase of 0.14% [1] - The market sentiment for gold appears bullish in the short term, with the price reaching a high of $3,696.48 and a low of $3,682.79 during the trading session [1] Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Spot gold is trading around $3,685, showing an increase of approximately 1.12% [2] - The U.S. dollar index has rebounded from a low of about 96.22 since February 2022, currently hovering around 97.62, close to a five-day high [2] - Market expectations indicate a 91% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, with an 80% chance of another cut in December [2] Group 2: Economic Context - The U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $37 trillion as of August this year, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of approximately 126.8%, occurring five years earlier than previously predicted [2] - The growth of the U.S. economy has lagged behind the expansion of national debt, prompting the introduction of a "gold card" program aimed at attracting wealthy immigrants to generate revenue [3] - The funds raised from such programs are unlikely to significantly alleviate the substantial debt burden faced by the U.S. government [3] Group 3: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices have surged nearly 40% this year, a significant increase that is rare in historical terms [4] - Despite the strong performance, concerns about persistent inflation and the Federal Reserve's reluctance to implement further monetary easing have led to market uncertainty regarding future policy directions [4] - The gold price has entered a consolidation phase after reaching highs, with a recent closing price of $3,684 and a weekly increase of 1.15% despite volatile price movements [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - After the new Fed governor Milan's dovish monetary - policy statement, the prices of precious metals, especially silver, were strongly affected by the expectation of loose monetary policy. The report suggests paying attention to the possibility of Milan becoming the new Fed chairman and recommends a strategy of buying on dips for precious metals. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 823 - 850 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 9799 - 10800 yuan/kilogram [2][3][4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - Shanghai gold rose 1.02% to 838.26 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 2.68% to 10204.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.53% to 3725.30 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 1.32% to 43.52 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.14%, and the US dollar index was 97.69 [2] - Milan, a new Fed governor, expressed a dovish stance, supporting a 150 - basis - point interest - rate cut this year, and believed that the Fed's long - term tightening would pose risks to the employment market [2] 3.2 Market Outlook - Milan's speech on Friday had a significant impact on the market's expectations of the Fed's monetary policy, with an influence comparable to Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. His speech framework and dovish tendency deviated from the characteristics of existing Fed members. He also expressed his willingness to stay at the Fed under Trump's instruction [3] 3.3 Strategy Viewpoint - Pay attention to the possibility of Milan becoming the new Fed chairman. After his statement, the prices of domestic and foreign silver showed strength due to the expectation of loose monetary policy, and the price of the main contract of Shanghai silver reached a new high. It is recommended to buy on dips for precious metals, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold being 823 - 850 yuan/gram and for the main contract of Shanghai silver being 9799 - 10800 yuan/kilogram [4] 3.4 Key Data of Gold and Silver - For gold, on September 19, 2025, the closing price of the active contract on COMEX was 3719.40 dollars/ounce (up 1.12% from the previous day), the trading volume was 181,300 lots (down 17.04%), the position was 516,200 lots (up 1.29%), and the inventory was 1227 tons (up 0.47%). The closing price of LBMA gold was 3663.15 dollars/ounce (up 0.53%). The closing price of the active contract on SHFE was 830.56 yuan/gram (up 0.78%), the trading volume was 375,100 lots (down 22.77%), and the position was 448,900 lots (up 1.17%) [8] - For silver, on September 19, 2025, the closing price of the active contract on COMEX was 43.37 dollars/ounce (up 3.00%), the position was 163,000 lots (up 3.99%), and the inventory was 16300 tons (down 0.01%). The closing price of the active contract on SHFE was 9971.00 yuan/kilogram (up 1.38%), the trading volume was 1,023,900 lots (down 21.56%), and the position was 867,300 lots (up 4.17%) [8] 3.5 Price and Volume Charts - There are multiple charts showing the relationship between the price of COMEX gold and the US dollar index, real interest rate, trading volume, position, etc., as well as the price and volume relationship of Shanghai gold, London gold, and the near - far month structure of COMEX gold and Shanghai gold [10][11][13][14][18][19][24][25] - There are also charts showing the price and volume relationship of COMEX silver and Shanghai silver, the near - far month structure, and the relationship between the management fund's net long position and price [31][32][33][34][42][43][44] 3.6 ETF Holdings - The holding of SPDR gold ETF was 994.56 tons (up 1.94% from the previous day), and the holding of SLV silver ETF was 15205.14 tons (unchanged) [5] 3.7 Internal - External Price Difference Statistics - On September 19, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference of gold was - 16.12 dollars/ounce, and the SGE - LBMA price difference was - 44.24 dollars/ounce. The SHFE - COMEX price difference of silver was 0.42 dollars/ounce, and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 0.37 dollars/ounce [53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the expectation of loose monetary policy will drive the subsequent prices of platinum - group metals to perform strongly. The price of platinum, with more obvious financial attributes, is stronger than that of palladium, with more obvious industrial attributes. It is recommended to buy platinum at low prices and then focus on the opportunity to buy palladium after the rise of platinum prices is established [9][10]. - The NYMEX platinum main - contract price is expected to rise further as it has achieved 7 consecutive weekly positive lines under the drive of loose expectations. The NYMEX palladium main - contract price has stabilized around $1,100 per ounce and will be suppressed when it rebounds to $1,255 per ounce. Attention should be paid to its rebound opportunity when it touches the lower trend line [12][15]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Platinum Key Data**: The closing price of the NYMEX platinum active contract rose 1.16% to $1,419 per ounce, the five - day average trading volume rose 5.80% to 31,371.4 hands, the main - contract open interest decreased 27.85% to 47,061 hands, the inventory increased 12.40% to 18,363.77 kilograms, the CFTC managed - fund net long position increased by 1,395 hands to 14,647 hands, the CFTC commercial net short position increased by 1,130 hands to 25,106 hands, and the platinum ETF holdings increased 0.27% to 74,556.02 kilograms [10]. - **Palladium Key Data**: The closing price of the NYMEX palladium active contract fell 4.40% to $1,173.5 per ounce, the five - day average trading volume decreased 3.11% to 5,894 hands, the main - contract open interest rose 1.05% to 19,028 hands, the inventory increased 2.74% to 4,681.07 kilograms, the CFTC managed - fund net short position decreased by 775 hands to 5,191 hands, the CFTC commercial net short position increased by 373 hands to 2,077 hands, and the palladium ETF holdings increased 1.70% to 14,131.04 kilograms [10]. 3.2. Market Review - **Price and Open Interest**: The NYMEX platinum main - contract price rose 1.16% to $1,419 per ounce, and the open interest as of the latest reporting period rose to 100,289 hands. The NYMEX palladium main - contract price fell 4.4% to $1,173.5 per ounce, and the open interest as of the latest reporting period rose to 19,900 hands [21][24]. - **Domestic Platinum Price**: As of September 19, the spot price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 326.69 yuan per gram [27]. - **Lease Rate**: As of September 19, the one - month implied lease rate of platinum fell from the high of the range to 10.21%, while that of palladium rebounded to 10.21% [31]. - **CFTC Net Positions**: As of the latest reporting period on September 16, the NYMEX platinum managed - fund net long position increased by 1,395 hands to 14,647 hands, and the NYMEX palladium managed - fund net short position was 19,402 hands [34][37]. 3.3. Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - **Platinum**: As of September 19, the total platinum ETF holdings were 74.55 tons. The CME platinum inventory increased by 1,874.87 kilograms to 18.36 tons this week [48][55]. - **Palladium**: As of September 19, the total palladium ETF holdings were 14.13 tons. The CME palladium inventory as of September 19 was 4,681.07 kilograms, an increase of 334.89 kilograms this week [51][60]. 3.4. Supply and Demand - **Platinum Supply**: The platinum production of the top 15 mines in 2025 is expected to be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease from 129.95 tons in 2024. The platinum production in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to reach 33.18 tons [66]. - **Palladium Supply**: The total palladium production of the top 15 mines in 2025 will slightly contract, with a 0.86% decrease to 165.78 tons. The production in the fourth quarter will be 41.36 tons [69]. - **Chinese Imports**: China's platinum imports in August were 8.21 tons, showing a rebound from July, while palladium imports in August were 2.06 tons, showing a decline from July [72][75]. - **Automobile Production**: No specific conclusions are drawn from the automobile production data, but data on Chinese, Japanese, German, and American automobile production are presented [77][80][83]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The global platinum supply - demand balance shows a supply shortfall in 2025, and the global palladium supply - demand balance shows a supply surplus in 2025 [86][87]. 3.5. Monthly Spread and Cross - Market Spread - **NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spread**: Relevant data and charts on NYMEX platinum 1 - 4, 4 - 7, 7 - 10, and 10 - 1 spreads are presented [91][92][96]. - **NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spread**: Relevant data and charts on NYMEX palladium 3 - 6, 6 - 9, 9 - 12, and 12 - 3 spreads are presented [104][100][101]. - **London - NYMEX Spread**: Charts of the spread between the London spot platinum price and the NYMEX platinum price, and the spread between the London spot palladium price and the NYMEX palladium price are presented [106].

Market Performance - The U.S. stock market reached a new historical high following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and signals of further cuts to come, with the Nasdaq rising nearly 1% and the S&P 500 increasing by about 0.5% [2][3] - Major technology stocks performed strongly, with Nvidia's investment of $5 billion in Intel leading to a nearly 30% surge in Intel's stock, marking its largest single-day gain in nearly 40 years [3][4] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points and indicated two more cuts are expected this year to support the job market, which has driven bullish sentiment in the stock market [4][5] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described the rate cut as "risk management," dampening some investors' expectations for a long-term easing cycle [5] Analyst Insights - Analysts expect that with the declining interest rates, investors will refocus on fundamentals, including regulatory easing, corporate earnings, and a recovering IPO market, which could benefit large tech and financial stocks [6] - In a low-interest-rate environment, large tech stocks typically outperform, while the financial sector may benefit from increased merger activity and mortgage business [6] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks faced a downturn, with the China concept stock index declining by approximately 2% [7]

美联储周三一如预期进行了9个月来的首次降息，幅度为25基点。在美联储最新利率决议公布后，华尔街大行中，高盛率先更新了其对美联储未来利 率路径的预测。 据CME"美联储观察"，目前美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为12.3%，降息25个基点的概率为87.7%。美联储12月维持利率不变概率为 0.9%，累计降息25个基点的概率为17.6%，累计降息50个基点的概率为81.6%。 29 10月25 == eshability 1 POB 2017 25 878 202 47.5% ra 99 在高盛看来， 只有通胀意外大幅上升，或者劳动力市场突然反弹，才会阻碍美联储进一步降息 。 如果不发生此类事件，美联储似乎将致力 于逐步放松货币政策，在控制通胀与支持经济之间取得平衡。 高盛强调，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的风险管理框架目前倾向于谨慎行事，多数成员释放出的信号显示，政策应继续朝着限制程度更 低的方向转变。该行表示， 这意味着到年底进一步降息将是基准情景 。 该行还预计，FOMC 2026年将进一步降息两次。 高盛的最新预测并未较该行此前的预测作出调整，且符合美联储自身的预测。 高盛在此前的研报中就预测，美联储今 ...