Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. inflation data has altered market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, reducing concerns about interest rate hikes and enhancing the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. Fundamental Analysis - U.S. inflation data: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April rose by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, marking the lowest level since February 2021. This has led to a shift in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, supporting gold prices [3]. - Trump's statements add market uncertainty: Following the CPI report, Trump pressured Powell to lower interest rates and claimed that Saudi Arabia would invest $1 trillion in the U.S. His calls for rate cuts align with market expectations, further enhancing the attractiveness of gold amid geopolitical uncertainties [3]. - Monetary policy expectations: Weaker inflation data has strengthened market belief in the Federal Reserve's capacity for monetary policy adjustments, increasing expectations for rate cuts. This is likely to lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, attracting more funds into the gold market and supporting price increases [3]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices exhibited significant volatility, ultimately closing higher after experiencing two dips followed by recoveries. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages have formed a death cross and are trending downward, creating resistance levels at approximately 3275 and 3300, which may limit upward movement [5]. - Key support levels are identified at 3208/3207, which is crucial as it aligns with the previous low and an important support line. If this support is breached, the market outlook may shift to a bearish perspective, with 3150 as the next critical support level [7]. - Resistance levels to monitor include 3265, 3275, and 3290/3293, with further attention on 3323 and 3350 if a strong upward trend occurs [7].

刘英（中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研究员） 英美达成贸易协议的同一天，也是美联储连续第三次宣布维持利率在4.25%-4.5%的水平不变的次日，英 国央行宣布降息25个基点，这显示出在美国所谓"对等关税"的冲击下，全球央行的货币政策走势分化加 剧。美联储按兵不动主要源于对高关税冲击所带来的不确定性的担忧，多数国家央行也选择按兵不动， 但日前仍有部分国家选择加息或降息，其中因通胀走升，巴西加息50个基点，日本央行也在继续加息的 路上。中国央行则宣布全面降准降息。 先来看此次英国央行降息25个基点的措施。一方面，这是因为英国通胀情况有所缓解，物价运行处于相 对平稳的水平，英国消费者物价指数（CPI）今年继续呈下行的态势，从今年一月份的3%降到二月份的 2.8%，三月份继续回落到2.6%的水平，核心CPI则从3.7%逐步回落到3.5%和3.4%的水平上。经过连续12 次加息及此前三次降息，英国通胀水平已经从2022年超过11%的高通胀，逐步回落的目前2%的目标区 间范围内，由此，相对稳定的物价水平成为英国央行降息的主要原因。 另一方面，在美国所谓"对等关税"影响下，特别是对全球进口美国的汽车、钢铁和铝等加征25%的高关 ...

5月7日，央行宣布下调以下五个方面的利率，包括存款准备金率，7天逆回购利率，结构性货币政策工 具利率，个人住房公积金贷款利率和汽车金融公司，金融租赁公司的存款准备金率，为市场提供了充裕 的流动性支持。上述降息降准政策目标清晰，通过宽松的货币政策，为实体企业精准减负和输血。减负 方面，重在价格调整，通过政策性利率的普遍降低，提高资金利用率，降低个人和企业的负债压力，输 血方面，通过针对科技创新，技术改造，消费与养老，支农支小的再贷款政策，助力行业龙头企业在创 新和并购方面持续优化升级。整体而言，宽松的货币政策，将首先利好大盘核心资产为代表的各行业龙 头企业，这些企业在各自细分行业具有比较优势和护城河，能够利用较低利率和较充裕的贷款额度，实 现优化升级和产业链的上下游并购扩张，有望进一步提升其在所属行业的市占率，并率先改善财务报 表，均衡囊括各行业细分龙头的中证A50指数，或是目前震荡市场较好的选择。 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 风险提示：基金投资有风险，投资需谨慎。上述市场观点、看法根据当前市场情况判断作出，未来可能 发生改变，本材料不构成任何投资建议。基金的过往业绩及其净值高低并不预示其未来业绩表现，指数 ...

昨天两市三大指数全线上涨，上证指数收涨0.80%，深证成指收涨0.22%，创业板指收涨0.51%。沪、深、北交所合计成交量15053亿元。方向上，通用航 空、农业等行业概念涨幅靠前。（数据来源：Wind，截至2025.05.07，过往数据不预示未来） 昨日盘前，市场迎来重磅的利好消息。5月7日上午，国新办举行新闻发布会，央行发布了三类共10项具体宏观货币政策，其中包括： 降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点，预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元；下调政策利率0.1个百分点；下调结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点；降低 个人住房公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点；增加3000亿元科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度。（资料来源：中国基金报，2025.05.07） 消息一出，A股三大指数集体高开，金融、地产、科技等板块应声上涨，截至收盘，全市场成交额扩大至1.5万亿元，场外资金加速回流。 虽然今年以来央行多次提及"择机降准降息"，但此次发布会的政策力度较大，除了降准、降息之外，还发布一系列积极政策，一定程度上超出了市场预 期。 面对这场年内空前的流动性释放，部分投资者还是难免疑惑：降准降息等政策对股市有何影响？今天我们就来好好 ...

韩国央行会议纪要：一位委员表示，提前实施宽松货币政策的必要性日益增加。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has introduced a comprehensive monetary policy package aimed at increasing long-term liquidity supply and maintaining market liquidity through measures such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [2][3][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Measures - The RRR has been lowered by 0.5 percentage points, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market [2]. - The reserve requirement ratio for auto finance and financial leasing companies will be reduced from 5% to 0% [3]. - The policy interest rate has been decreased by 0.1 percentage points, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate dropping from 1.5% to 1.4%, likely leading to a similar decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [3]. - Structural monetary policy rates have been cut by 0.25 percentage points, including various special policy rates and the agricultural and small business re-lending rate, from 1.75% to 1.5% [3]. - The personal housing provident fund loan rate has been reduced by 0.25 percentage points, with the 5-year and above first home loan rate decreasing from 2.85% to 2.6% [3]. - An additional 300 billion yuan has been allocated for technology innovation and technological transformation re-lending, increasing the total from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan [4]. - A new 500 billion yuan re-lending facility for service consumption and elderly care has been established to encourage banks to increase credit support in these areas [4]. - The re-lending quota for agricultural and small business support has been increased by 300 billion yuan, complementing the reduction in re-lending rates [4]. Group 2: Impact on Consumption and Investment - The new policies are expected to stimulate domestic consumption, reducing reliance on international trade, and addressing issues related to healthcare, elderly care, and housing [4]. - Lower interest rates on loans for renovations and car purchases, along with faster loan approvals for small businesses, are anticipated to benefit borrowers [5]. - The reduction in financing costs for enterprises is expected to enhance their development, stabilize employment, and ensure residents' income stability [6]. - The release of liquidity is seen as beneficial for the stock market, particularly in the financial and technology sectors, as well as the bond market [7]. Group 3: Future Policy Directions - The PBOC plans to continue implementing moderately loose monetary policies, adjusting based on domestic and international economic conditions and financial market operations [8]. - There is potential for expanding the scale of existing tools, improving policy elements, or creating new policy instruments in response to economic performance [8].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Central State-Owned Enterprises ETF (513170) has increased by 1.90% as of May 7, 2025, with most constituent stocks showing positive performance, including significant gains from major banks and state-owned enterprises [1] - The latest scale of the Hang Seng Central State-Owned Enterprises ETF reached 644 million yuan, with a total of 507 million shares, both hitting a one-year high [2] - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, expected to inject approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market, alongside a policy interest rate cut from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is anticipated to lower the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by about 0.1 percentage points [2] Group 2 - Analysts believe that the easing monetary policy will enhance market liquidity and reduce financing costs for enterprises, benefiting companies including those tracked by the Hang Seng Central State-Owned Enterprises ETF [2] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission issued guidelines to improve the market value management of central enterprises, promoting a focus on the market performance of listed companies [2] - The Hang Seng China Central State-Owned Enterprises Index reflects the overall performance of Hong Kong-listed companies with mainland central enterprises as the largest shareholders [2][3] Group 3 - As of May 6, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Hang Seng China Central State-Owned Enterprises Index account for 62.86% of the index, including major companies like China Mobile, Bank of China, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [3]

然而，当把目光投向未来，经济前景却不容乐观。全球经济增长放缓的大趋势下，美国经济难以独善其身。国际贸 易紧张局势持续升级，特朗普政府推行的关税政策不仅引发了贸易伙伴的反制措施，也对美国国内企业的供应链和 生产成本造成冲击。许多依赖进出口的企业面临订单减少、利润下滑的困境，这将直接影响企业未来的投资和招聘 计划。此外，科技行业的竞争加剧、地缘政治风险等因素，也在不断侵蚀美国经济的增长动力。在这种情况下，当 前稳健的劳动力市场数据似乎更像是对过去经济良好状态的一种反映，而无法完全代表未来的经济走向。随着前瞻 性经济指标，如制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）、企业盈利预期等逐渐恶化，经济陷入疲软的风险正在不断积聚。 一旦经济疲软的迹象愈发明显，美联储在今年晚些时候恢复宽松周期的可能性将显著增加。宽松货币政策，如降 息、量化宽松等，是美联储应对经济衰退、刺激经济增长的重要手段。当经济增长乏力、就业市场出现滑坡时，美 联储可能会通过降低利率，鼓励企业增加投资、消费者扩大消费，从而促进经济复苏；量化宽松政策则可以增加市 场上的货币供应量，缓解流动性紧张，稳定金融市场。尽管美联储目前拥有劳动力市场稳健这一 "缓冲垫"，但面对 ...

誉遭受破坏的担忧。尽管在股价暴跌后，特朗普暂时收回了解雇威胁，但他的政府仍未停止向美联储施压。财政部长 贝森特上周暗示，此前两年期美债收益率的下降，正是市场在向美联储传递降息速度过慢的信号。上周五，特朗普更 是在社交媒体上直接提及就业数据，公然反驳美联储对通胀的担忧。 盾博dbg发现上周五，美国 4 月份非农就业报告的公布，宛如投入金融市场的一颗重磅炸弹，瞬间点燃了一场关于利 率政策的激烈博弈。报告发布仅仅 15 分钟后，美国总统特朗普便迅速抓住就业增长超预期强劲这一 "把柄"，向美联 储主席鲍威尔展开新一轮施压，直言当下毫无理由暂缓降息，试图以此推动美联储尽快实施宽松货币政策。然而，债 券交易员们却从这份报告中得出了截然不同的结论，一场围绕利率走向的拉锯战就此拉开帷幕。 特朗普主导的贸易战早已在金融市场投下巨大阴影，不仅严重扰乱市场秩序，更在经济发展进程中埋下衰退隐患。在 此背景下，尽管此次就业数据亮眼，但上周四公布的制造业报告却不及预期，这两份数据相互交织，促使交易员们重 新审视对美联储降息的押注。此前，基于美联储可能最快下月放宽政策以遏制经济下滑的预期，交易员们纷纷大举买 入短期国债；而如今，他们却迅速 ...

菲律宾央行：在决定进一步宽松货币政策方面将继续采取审慎的态度。 ...