Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points was anticipated, but the strong indication that December's meeting may not result in further cuts surprised market participants [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision and Market Reaction - The Fed's decision to cut rates was expected, but the emphasis on not considering a December meeting for further cuts caught the market off guard [2][3]. - There was dissent among policymakers, with some advocating for a larger cut while others preferred no changes at all, indicating a divided stance within the Fed [4][5]. - The current environment suggests that more dissenting opinions may emerge in the upcoming months as the Fed navigates its policy decisions [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Labor Market - The job market is showing signs of weakness, and the Fed is operating with limited data, lacking the monthly payrolls report, which complicates their decision-making [7]. - Recent CPI data indicated a cooler inflation rate, primarily due to falling shelter prices, but the Fed's control over inflation is limited, particularly regarding food and electricity prices [11]. Group 3: Leadership and Future Implications - Discussions are ongoing regarding the next Fed chair, with five potential candidates differing significantly in their monetary policy views, which could lead to market volatility as a decision approaches [12][13]. - The Treasury Secretary has indicated a desire to make a decision by Thanksgiving, but the Senate's deliberation time is limited, potentially extending into the new year [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent actions and statements from the Federal Reserve, highlighting the unexpected hawkish tone from Chairman Powell despite a rate cut and the announcement to pause balance sheet reduction, leading to uncertainty in future rate cuts [4][6][9]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points in October and announced a pause in balance sheet reduction in December, which alleviated some liquidity and economic pressures [4][6]. - The market's expectation for a December rate cut decreased from 90% to around 60% following Powell's hawkish comments, causing a short-term drop in gold and U.S. stocks, while bond yields rose [4][20]. Employment and Inflation - The combination of declining employment and moderate inflation justified the October rate cut, with private sector data indicating a softening labor market [6][9]. - Future rate cuts remain uncertain, as internal divisions within the Fed are growing, with some members advocating for a pause in rate cuts to assess economic conditions [9][10]. Economic Risks - The ongoing government shutdown poses risks to economic and employment data, which could influence the Fed's decision-making regarding future rate cuts [10][13]. - The potential impact of tariffs and the effect of rate cuts on inflation, particularly in sensitive sectors like real estate, are also critical factors to monitor [13][15]. Balance Sheet and Liquidity - The Fed plans to end its balance sheet reduction on December 1, with the balance sheet having shrunk from a peak of $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion, leading to liquidity pressures in the banking system [15][18]. - The increase in Treasury issuance since the debt ceiling was lifted has further tightened market liquidity, necessitating the halt of quantitative tightening to provide a buffer [18][20]. Market Implications - The combination of pausing balance sheet reduction and rate cuts creates a "double easing" effect, which may support the real economy but could also lead to a slowdown in the upward momentum of interest-sensitive assets due to prior extreme pricing of easing expectations [20].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second rate cut this year, and has decided to end its balance sheet reduction program by December [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates appears minor but reflects significant internal disagreements, with some members advocating for a 50 basis point cut while others, including the chair, oppose further reductions [4]. - The end of the balance sheet reduction, which began in June 2022, will see the proceeds from MBS redemptions reinvested into short-term U.S. Treasury securities [2]. Group 2: Employment and Inflation Dynamics - The job market shows signs of strain, with a slowdown in employment growth and increasing layoff announcements, particularly affecting low-income households [6]. - Inflation remains a concern, driven by rising tariffs that have increased the prices of various goods, complicating the Fed's ability to manage economic stability [6][8]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Market reactions to the Fed's announcements have been mixed, with the Dow and S&P 500 experiencing slight declines while the Nasdaq reached a new closing high, indicating varied interpretations of the Fed's policies [11]. - There is a prevailing expectation among market participants that the Fed may cut rates by another 25 basis points in December, but uncertainty remains due to internal divisions within the Fed and the impact of government shutdowns on economic data [13][16].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut was accompanied by hawkish signals from Chairman Powell, indicating uncertainty in future monetary policy and dampening market expectations for further rate cuts by year-end [2][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 3.75% to 4%, the lowest level in three years, marking the second consecutive meeting with a rate cut [2]. - Powell's comments shifted market sentiment, reducing the probability of a December rate cut from 95% to 65%, leading to declines in major stock indices [2][6]. - The voting outcome for the rate decision was 10 in favor and 2 against, highlighting significant internal divisions within the FOMC [5]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements - Powell noted a growing chorus of officials questioning the necessity of further rate cuts, suggesting that the most accommodative phase of the current easing cycle may be over [4][5]. - The differing opinions among committee members were evident, with some advocating for maintaining rates while others pushed for a more substantial cut [5]. Group 3: Economic Data and Uncertainty - The government shutdown has created a data vacuum, complicating decision-making and increasing uncertainty regarding economic forecasts [7][8]. - The absence of key labor market indicators has left officials without the necessary information to resolve their differences, leading to a wider range of uncertainty [8]. Group 4: Inflation and Employment Dynamics - The debate within the Fed centers on balancing inflation control with addressing economic slowdown, with concerns about overheating the economy through excessive rate cuts [11]. - Recent labor reports indicate a significant slowdown in job growth, with average monthly additions dropping to approximately 29,000, far below last year's average of 82,000 [11].

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00% during its recent monetary policy meeting, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024 [1] - There is significant uncertainty surrounding future monetary policy due to internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, the government shutdown affecting key economic data, and ongoing pressures to balance employment and inflation risks [1][2] - The market's expectation for another rate cut in December has decreased from 90% to below 70% following the Fed's lack of clear guidance on future policy [1] Group 1 - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are evident, with differing opinions on whether to cut rates further or maintain current levels, highlighting the complexity of the decision-making process [2] - The government shutdown has halted data collection and reporting, complicating the Fed's ability to assess the true state of the economy, which Powell likened to "driving in a fog" [2] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August, the highest in nearly four years, and non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, significantly below expectations [2][3] Group 2 - Private sector data indicates a continued decline in job openings, with significant layoffs announced by major companies like Amazon and Target, suggesting a troubling trend in the labor market [3] - Inflation remains a concern, with the personal consumption expenditures price index rising 2.7% year-over-year in August, exceeding the Fed's long-term target of 2% [3] - The impact of tariffs has contributed to rising core personal consumption expenditures, potentially pushing inflation rates to 3% by December [3] Group 3 - The relationship between the Federal Reserve and the White House is tense, with government officials previously pressuring the Fed for more aggressive rate cuts, which may lead to further complications in policy decisions [4] - Concerns have been raised about the potential impact of political pressures on the Fed's independence and its ability to manage inflation effectively, especially with Powell's term ending in May [5]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. government shutdown since October 1 has likely prevented the release of the October CPI data due to interrupted funding and mandatory furloughs affecting data collection[4] - The September ADP report indicated a decline of 32,000 jobs in the private sector, marking the third negative employment addition in four months, significantly below market expectations[4] - The September CPI data showed a year-over-year increase of 3% for both nominal and core CPI, which was below market expectations of 3.1%[30] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement consecutive rate cuts in the October and December FOMC meetings, with a potential total of 50 basis points reduction remaining in 2025[5] - The median forecast for the terminal interest rates in 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 3.6%, 3.4%, and 3.1% respectively, indicating a continued easing policy[4] - If the government shutdown ends before the December FOMC meeting, the Fed may receive three months of employment data, which could complicate the policy direction but is unlikely to alter the rate cut plans significantly[4] Group 3: Market Conditions - The Treasury's general fund account balance has recovered from a low of $300 billion to a target level of $800 billion, while reserves have decreased by approximately $400 billion due to the ongoing government shutdown[5] - The market is expected to experience a trend of easing policies, which may help stabilize market volatility following recent tensions in U.S.-China relations and liquidity concerns[5] - The external macroeconomic environment is anticipated to remain favorable, reflected in a moderate decline in the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields[5] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Economic fundamentals remain uncertain, with potential risks from tariff policies and geopolitical developments that could impact the pace of rate cuts[6] - The ongoing government shutdown poses a risk to timely data releases and could hinder the Fed's decision-making process regarding monetary policy[4]

今日周四(10月30日)亚盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于47.42一线上方，今日开盘于47.51美元/盎司，截至发 稿，伦敦银暂报47.51美元/盎司，下跌0.02%，最高触及47.95美元/盎司，最低下探47.24美元/盎司，目 前来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，美联储正在密切关注可能正在恶化的就业市场状况，因为低收 入家庭正出现更多压力迹象。鲍威尔指出，对于近期裁员公告数量上升的情况，"我们正在非常仔细地 关注"，因为这可能会削弱就业创造能力。 不过他补充说，目前这些裁员公告尚未导致失业救济申请数量上升。他还表示："我们认为确实存在这 样一种情况——高收入家庭的状况良好、支出强劲，而其他群体则正面临日益严峻的挑战。 另外"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos评美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话，他说："鲍威尔的新闻发布会表明， FOMC整体上并不认同市场此前对12月降息的高度定价。"鲍威尔表示："对于12月如何行动，我们的看 法存在很大分歧。"他强调，12月的降息"不应被视为已成定局。 事实上，远非如此。"这已经超出了他们通常所说的免责声明，即"政策并非按照预设路径 ...

宏观 10 月 FOMC：鲍威尔意外表示 12 月 降息仍有变数 证券研究报告 联储 10 月会议如期降息 25bp，并宣布 12 月 1 日开始结束缩表，但鲍威尔 称 12 月降息仍可能有变数（far from foregone decision），表态偏鹰派。 联储 10 月会议如期降息 25bp，基准利率降至 3.75%-4%，Miran 要求降息 50bp，而堪萨斯联储主席施密德要求不降息；同时，联储宣布从 12 月 1 日 起停止缩表。会前市场普遍定价联储 12 月会议再降息 25bp，但鲍威尔在记 者会中表示，12 月降息仍可能有变数（far from foregone decision），需观 察后续数据再做决定。鲍威尔表态偏鹰派导致市场降息预期回落，美元有所 回升。截至北京时间凌晨 4:30，相较会议前，对 2025 年 12 月、2026 年降 息预期分别收窄 4bp、1bp 至 17bp、69bp；2y、10y 美债收益率分别上行 8bp、6bp 至 3.59%、4.07%；美元指数上涨 0.4%至 99.2；标普 500、道指 分别下跌 0.2%、0.4%，纳指基本持平，黄金下跌 1.1 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4.00% during the October meeting[6] - The Fed announced the cessation of quantitative tightening (QT) starting December 1, 2025[2] - The voting outcome was 10-2, indicating significant internal division regarding future rate cuts[6] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed's economic assessment shifted from "moderated in the first half of the year" to "expanding at a moderate pace"[6] - Employment growth is slowing, but there are no signs of accelerated job market weakness[2] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to become more evident in the first quarter of next year[2] Group 3: Future Rate Cut Expectations - There is a high probability of pausing rate cuts in December due to ongoing government shutdown issues and delayed economic data[2] - The likelihood of resuming rate cuts may increase after the May 2026 Fed chair transition, especially if a dovish candidate is appointed[2] - The Fed's internal divisions and cautious approach to data-driven decisions add uncertainty to future monetary policy[2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the U.S. stock market, particularly the mixed results of major indices following comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding future interest rate cuts and economic conditions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the first consecutive rate cuts in a year [3]. - Powell indicated that a further rate cut in December is not guaranteed, highlighting uncertainty in the Fed's future policy direction [3][14]. - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with GDP growth in the first half of the year at 1.6%, down from 2.4% the previous year [5]. Group 2: Labor Market and Economic Indicators - The labor market appears to be cooling, with a notable slowdown in job growth since the beginning of the year, attributed to factors such as reduced immigration and declining labor force participation [6][8]. - Despite the delay in official employment data, evidence suggests that layoffs and hiring remain at low levels, although perceptions of job opportunities are declining [7]. - The overall economic activity growth may be slightly better than expected, driven by stronger consumer spending, while investment in equipment and intangible assets continues to grow [6]. Group 3: Inflation and Price Pressures - Inflation has significantly decreased from mid-2022 but remains slightly above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, with the overall PCE price index rising by 2.8% over the past 12 months [9][10]. - Higher tariffs are contributing to price increases in certain goods, leading to upward pressure on overall inflation [11][12]. - Powell noted that while short-term inflation risks are skewed upward, the risks to employment are skewed downward, creating a challenging economic environment [13].