美联储穆萨莱姆：目前还无法确定关税是否只会对通胀产生一次性影响，还是会带来更持久的影响。 ...

美联储穆萨莱姆：近期通胀出现了一些积极的趋势，但由于关税的原因，未来前景预计将会上升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Economists and analysts warn that President Trump's comprehensive trade policy, which imposes high tariffs on most goods entering the U.S., will lead to significant price increases for consumers, despite recent economic data showing relatively mild overall inflation [1] Group 1: Price Increases and Inflation Data - Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from May indicates price increases in several tariff-sensitive categories, with appliance prices rising 0.8% in both April and May, marking the highest monthly increase in nearly four years [1] - Toy prices have increased for the second consecutive month, rising 1.3%, matching a four-year high [1] - Home goods, tools, and sports equipment prices are accelerating after previously declining in the pandemic years [1] - DataWeave's analysis shows that home and furniture prices have accelerated significantly since January, with increases of 1.1% in February, 2.1% in March, 2.8% in April, 3.7% in May, and 4.7% in June [1] Group 2: Retailer-Specific Price Changes - Clothing and footwear prices remained stable from February to May but saw a slight increase in June, rising 1.7% compared to January [2][3] - Some retailers, such as Walmart and Target, have experienced larger price increases for toys, with prices rising 7.4% and 6.1% respectively since January, compared to an average increase of 3.8% [3] Group 3: Future Price Expectations - DataWeave's CEO predicts broader price increases in the coming months as tariff effects propagate through the supply chain, with expectations of "shrinkflation" and an increase in private label products due to consumer resistance to price hikes [3] - Wells Fargo anticipates that the upcoming June CPI report may mark a turning point, with higher effective tariff rates impacting overall inflation, particularly in core goods categories [3] Group 4: Mechanisms Behind Mild Inflation - Tariffs have been implemented in phases, with the earliest tariffs taking effect in February and March, while most were announced or implemented after April [4] - Trade policies and tariffs are subject to change, with many announced tariffs being delayed, canceled, or unexpectedly adjusted [4] - The transportation of goods takes time, with shipping from other countries to the U.S. potentially taking weeks or more, and domestic supply chains also requiring time to process imported goods [5] - Companies had stockpiled inventory before tariffs took effect, and some costs have been absorbed by foreign exporters, with Goldman Sachs estimating that about 20% of the additional costs are borne by exporters [6] - Businesses are hesitant to pass on high prices due to weakened consumer spending power, leading to reduced pricing power for companies [6] - Consumer spending is more focused on services during summer, with expectations that product prices will become more significant in household budgets during the fall and winter [6] - Economic data often lags behind current events, with key inflation data for June set to be released soon [6][7] - Rising commodity prices have been reflected in inflation data but are largely masked by falling gasoline prices and slowing price increases in the service sector [7] - Goldman Sachs noted that the effects of tariffs have not yet strongly appeared in official consumer price data, which is not surprising [8]

巴西财长Haddad：即使是之前的10%关税也没有道理，因为美国对巴西保持贸易顺差。 ...

巴西财长Haddad：50%的关税不可持续，不要以为它会一直维持不变。 ...

马来西亚总理：美国国务卿鲁比奥表示将考虑马来西亚对关税的看法。 ...

Report Summary 1. Hot News - In June 2025, China's CPI rose 0.1% year-on-year, with urban areas up 0.1%, rural areas down 0.2%, food prices down 0.3%, non-food prices up 0.1%, consumer goods prices down 0.2%, and service prices up 0.5%. The CPI for the first half of the year was down 0.1% compared to the same period last year [2] - The vessel "Eternal C" flying the Liberian flag and operated by Greece sank after being attacked by Houthi rebels near Yemen, and five crew members have been rescued [2] - The US government will restrict Chinese citizens and other so - called "foreign adversaries" from buying farmland in the US, which China's spokesperson criticized as discriminatory and harmful to the US itself [2] - The General Office of the State Council issued a notice to increase support for stable employment policies, including supporting enterprises to stabilize jobs and expanding the scope of special loans for stable and expanded employment [2] - After including the tariffs announced by Trump on August 1 for 14 countries, the average US tariff rate will rise from 13.4% to 14.6% [3] - The Fed's June meeting minutes showed that most participants thought it might be appropriate to cut the federal funds rate this year, and the upward pressure on inflation from tariffs might be temporary or moderate [3] 2. Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch: caustic soda, pure benzene, coking coal, urea, and rapeseed oil [4] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.85%, precious metals 27.21%, oilseeds and oils 12.63%, non - ferrous metals 20.32%, soft commodities 2.88%, coal - coking - steel - ore 14.17%, energy 3.18%, chemicals 12.74%, grains 1.20%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.82% [4] 3. Sector Positions - The document shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days, but specific data is presented in a chart and not detailed in text [5] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Asset Class | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | - 0.13 | 1.41 | 4.22 | | | SSE 50 | - 0.26 | 1.03 | 2.05 | | | CSI 300 | - 0.18 | 1.41 | 1.44 | | | CSI 500 | - 0.41 | 0.64 | 3.98 | | | S&P 500 | 0.61 | 0.94 | 6.49 | | | Hang Seng Index | - 1.06 | - 0.75 | 19.10 | | | German DAX | 1.42 | 2.68 | 23.31 | | | Nikkei 225 | 0.33 | - 1.65 | - 0.18 | | | FTSE 100 | 0.15 | 1.21 | 8.49 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury futures | 0.05 | 0.14 | 0.11 | | | 5 - year Treasury futures | 0.03 | 0.00 | - 0.36 | | | 2 - year Treasury futures | - 0.00 | - 0.03 | - 0.50 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | - 0.21 | 1.47 | 1.66 | | | WTI Crude Oil | - 0.06 | 5.06 | - 5.05 | | | London Spot Gold | 0.38 | 0.33 | 26.25 | | | LME Copper | - 1.33 | - 2.21 | 10.00 | | | Wind Commodity Index | - 1.01 | - 0.96 | 12.72 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.00 | 0.74 | - 10.13 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 0.48 | - 3.11 | [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold market is expected to experience high - level oscillations in the short term and is a strategic long - term allocation due to multiple uncertainties and the trend of fiscal and monetary double - easing [1][3]. - Silver will have strong oscillations, with support around 8700, influenced by the price sentiment of base metals and gold [1]. - Copper is under pressure in the short term, but the long - term outlook remains positive. After a full correction, it is advisable to try long positions with a light position [1][6]. - Zinc will oscillate in the short term, and in the long run, it has an increasing supply and weak demand, so opportunities to short on rallies should be grasped [1][9]. - Lead and tin prices are under pressure to rebound due to increased supply and insufficient demand [1]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure to rebound as downstream consumption enters the off - season and inventory accumulates [1][11]. - Nickel prices are under pressure to fall due to supply - demand imbalance and inventory accumulation [1][13]. - Industrial silicon will rebound, and polysilicon will have high - level oscillations in the short term but is in a state of over - supply in the long term [1]. - Lithium carbonate is under pressure to rebound, and it is expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the 65,000 pressure level [1][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Information**: SHFE gold decreased by 1.21% to 766.82, COMEX gold increased by 0.35% to 3323. SHFE silver decreased by 0.60% to 8899, COMEX silver decreased by 0.87% to 37. The Shanghai gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.61% to 86.17 [2]. - **Logic**: The Fed's attitude is unclear, Trump's second - wave high - tariff policy is in place, and New Zealand did not cut interest rates as expected. Tariff uncertainties and the long - term trend of global order reshaping and double - easing support the long - bull logic of gold [3]. - **Strategy**: Gold can be considered for long - term investment when the opportunity arises as it has strong support around 760. Silver will have range oscillations with strong support around 8700 [4]. Copper - **Market Information**: The closing price of SHFE copper main contract was 78330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.74%. The trading volume increased by 165%, and the position decreased by 6%. Global copper visible inventory is at a historically low level [5]. - **Logic**: The supply of copper concentrate remains tight, but the production of electrolytic copper has increased significantly. The high copper price suppresses demand, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season [5]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, there is intense long - short game. After a full correction, try long positions with a light position. In the long term, be confident in the upward trend of copper prices. The range of SHFE copper is [77800, 79800], and that of LME copper is [9600, 9800] dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22220 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.63%. Domestic inventory has slightly increased, and the start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises is 56.48%, lower than the same period in previous years [8]. - **Logic**: The supply of zinc ore is abundant, and the TC continues to rebound. The demand for galvanized steel is affected by the weak steel demand and overseas anti - dumping [8]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see in the short term. In the long run, short on rallies. The range of SHFE zinc is [21800, 22500], and that of LME zinc is [2700, 2800] dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The closing price of LME aluminum was 2583 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.23%, and that of SHFE aluminum main contract was 20515 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.05%. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased [10]. - **Logic**: The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is at a high level, and the downstream consumption is weak. The supply of alumina is expected to be loose in the short term [11]. - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds for SHFE aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. Alumina will operate in a low - level range [11]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The closing price of LME nickel was 14990 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.93%, and that of SHFE nickel main contract was 120370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14%. The inventory of pure nickel has accumulated [12]. - **Logic**: The supply - demand imbalance of nickel persists, and the consumption of stainless steel is in the off - season, although the inventory has decreased slightly due to production cuts [13]. - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the production cut trend of stainless steel. The range of nickel main contract is [118000, 122000] [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The main contract LC2509 of lithium carbonate decreased its position by over 10,000 lots, opening low and closing high. The total inventory continues to reach new highs [14]. - **Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction has not been resolved. The demand shows an off - season non - off - season phenomenon, but the supply increase is in line with expectations [14]. - **Strategy**: It will have high - level oscillations in the short term, paying attention to the 65,000 pressure level [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes suggest that most officials do not see an immediate need for interest rate cuts, but there is a general expectation for potential rate reductions later in the year if inflation pressures from tariffs increase [1][2] - The latest gold T+D price is reported at 769.21 yuan per gram, reflecting a 0.67% increase, indicating a rebound in the gold market during the European trading session [1] - The market is closely watching upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials, particularly Christopher Waller, who has previously expressed support for rate cuts, which could influence market expectations for the July policy meeting [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that gold prices have rebounded after hitting a low, maintaining a downward trend but supported by a weekly upward trend channel, suggesting potential for further bullish rebounds if prices drop to support levels [3] - Key resistance levels for gold T+D are identified between 775-785 yuan per gram, while support levels are noted between 750-760 yuan per gram, indicating a range for potential price movements [3]

Group 1 - The latest Shanghai gold futures closing price is 773.30 CNY per gram, with a daily increase of 0.49% and a trading volume of 205,604 contracts [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai is quoted at 768.55 CNY per gram, indicating a discount of 4.75 CNY per gram compared to the futures price [1] - The U.S. President Trump announced new tariffs on imports from several countries, with Brazil facing a 50% tariff and others facing rates ranging from 20% to 30%, effective from August 1 [1] Group 2 - The latest minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting reveal increasing divergence among officials regarding interest rate outlooks, primarily due to differing expectations on how tariffs may impact inflation [2] - Participants generally believe that the current monetary policy may be moderately restrictive, allowing the committee to wait for clearer inflation and economic activity prospects [2] Group 3 - The market is closely monitoring U.S. initial jobless claims and speeches from Federal Reserve and European Central Bank officials [3] - Despite Trump's announcement of tariffs, the market does not expect a significant rise in tariffs, leading to limited reaction in gold prices [3] - The gold price is experiencing fluctuations, with the Shanghai gold premium narrowing to 2.2 CNY per gram, indicating a range-bound trading strategy for gold [3]