上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领98元券包 ， 优选创新药基金10元起投！限量发放！ 先到先得！ 今年以来，国产创新药行业出现重大价值重估。数据显示，截至6月6日，年内万得创新药指 数大涨逾20%，港股创新药指数更是涨超50%。 国产创新药是否迎来了"DeepSeek时刻"？国产创新药目前处于什么阶段，黄金投资周期来了 吗？创新药行业的竞争格局如何？未来还将面临哪些挑战？对此， 中国基金报记者采访了景 顺长城医疗产业基金经理乔海英、广发证券医药生物首席分析师罗佳荣、富国医药创新基金 经理赵伟、平安基金医药精选基金经理周思聪、财通资管创新医药混合基金经理易小金、开 源证券医药首席分析师余汝意 ，共同把脉国产创新药行业市场的投资机会和挑战。 周思聪： 2025年是中国创新药行业的"三个元年"——收入放量元年、盈利跨越元年和估值抬 升元年，行业有望迎来系统性投资机会。短期来看，2025年有望成为创新药企业收入集体放 量的起点。中期来看，2025年至2028年，中国创新药企业或成批步入盈利周期，2025年行 业有望开始集体跨越盈利的鸿沟。长期来看，2025年或成为中国创新药估值系统性提升的起 点。商业保险的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly innovative drugs, experienced a significant surge on June 9, with related ETFs in the Hong Kong market rising collectively by over 4% in half a day, indicating high trading activity and investor interest [1]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Hong Kong innovative drug ETFs saw substantial gains, with the following notable performances: - Guotai Innovative Drug ETF (517110) increased by 4.7%, with a trading volume of 814.38 million yuan and a scale of 4.29 million units [2][3]. - Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF Fund (520700) rose by 4.65%, with a trading volume of 4.32 billion yuan and a scale of 2.18 million units [5]. - Hong Kong Innovative Drug 50 ETF (513780) gained 4.63%, with a scale of 4.2 million units [5]. - Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (513120) increased by 4.44%, with a trading volume of 49.82 billion yuan and a scale of 91.57 million units [6]. Group 2: Investment Logic - The investment logic for innovative drugs is driven by both domestic and international factors: - Domestic policies, such as the "腾笼换鸟" (Tenglong Huanniao) policy, are creating more payment space for innovative drugs, facilitating the import substitution process and providing better service and policy support for domestic innovative drugs [2]. - A significant number of innovative drug companies are expected to reach profitability this year, as high R&D investments begin to translate into revenue growth, leading to profit elasticity [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Prior to Q3 2022, innovative drugs were largely overlooked by the market, with minimal research and trading activity, resulting in a bottoming out of asset prices and industry cycles [3]. - It is anticipated that innovative drugs will become a standard allocation for active pharmaceutical fund managers in the next two years, potentially attracting an additional 30-50 billion yuan in investment, while the current circulating market cap for innovative drugs is around 30 billion yuan [3]. Group 4: Index Composition - The CSI Hong Kong Innovative Drug Industry Index selects up to 50 publicly listed companies involved in innovative drug R&D in the Hong Kong market, reflecting the overall performance of these companies [7]. - Major weighted stocks in the index include: - BeiGene (6160.HK) with a weight of 11.99% - Heng Rui Medicine (600276) with a weight of 9.35% - WuXi AppTec (603259) with a weight of 9.31% [4][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the innovative drug market, highlighting a significant divergence in opinions among investors regarding the sustainability of the recent surge in stock prices and the potential for a valuation bubble in the sector [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The innovative drug sector, particularly in Hong Kong stocks, has seen a strong rise this year, with several funds achieving returns exceeding 60% [1]. - The performance is attributed to a "Davis Double Play" phenomenon, driven by advancements in technology and the rapid development of the innovative drug industry [2]. - The Chinese innovative drug market is experiencing a transformation, with significant policy support and an increase in the quality and efficiency of domestic products [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Insights - Fund managers emphasize the importance of understanding the underlying technology trends in the innovative drug sector, identifying three key areas: ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugates), dual antibodies, and TCE (T Cell Engagers) [7]. - Investment strategies should focus on companies with strong research and execution capabilities, particularly during critical industry events like ASCO [8]. - The potential for high returns in the innovative drug sector is acknowledged, but there are concerns about the risks associated with inflated valuations and the need for careful stock selection [10][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for the domestic innovative drug industry, marking significant revenue growth, profitability, and valuation increases [5]. - The article suggests that the innovative drug sector is likely to continue its upward trajectory, driven by the increasing international competitiveness of Chinese companies and the impending patent cliffs faced by multinational corporations [12][13].

Group 1 - The 2025 ASCO annual meeting showcased outstanding clinical data from several domestic innovative drug companies, highlighting advancements in antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs), bispecific antibodies, and new-generation small molecules [1] - The increasing number of presentations by Chinese experts at international platforms indicates that Chinese pharmaceutical companies are rapidly advancing in innovative research and development [1] - The innovative drug sector is poised for a "golden era" of investment, with potential for reshaping global market perceptions [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong innovative drug ETF (159567) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index, allowing investors to easily invest in leading companies within the Hong Kong innovative drug industry [2] - The implementation of the 18A listing rule in the Hong Kong market has attracted many quality domestic innovative drug companies to list and raise funds, contributing to the positive earnings trend of these companies [2] - The valuation of the Hong Kong innovative drug index is considered attractive due to high profitability from the underlying companies, especially with the upcoming 2024 annual report disclosures [2]

Core Viewpoint - The investment essence of the innovative drug industry is a "high risk, high return" technology game, with value realization highly concentrated in the window of "emergence of potential blockbuster drugs → successful commercialization during patent period" [2] Group 1: Nature of Innovative Drug Investment - Innovative drug investment combines "stage-based value investment" and "probability game" due to the industry's unique characteristics [3] - The overall R&D return rate in the industry is close to zero, with a 90% failure rate in clinical stages, leading to a valuation paradox [3] - The value of companies is highly dependent on single blockbuster drugs, and without replacement products post-patent cliff, valuations can collapse [3] Group 2: Redefining Value Investment - Traditional value investment standards are difficult to apply to pure innovative drug companies due to low R&D returns and high failure rates [4] - Value creation in innovative drug companies is concentrated in the window of "potential blockbuster validation → approval → successful commercialization" [4] - The core of evaluating a drug company is the discounted cash flow of existing products and future pipelines, with blockbuster potential being a key variable [4] Group 3: Probability Game - Drug development is a high-risk process, with early pipeline value being low but exponential increases in value upon successful key clinical trials [6] - Excellent platforms and management can significantly improve success probabilities and efficiencies, although they do not guarantee success [6] - The role of platforms includes improving success rates, increasing the number of attempts, and maximizing the value of successful projects [6] Group 4: Investment Decision Framework - Investment decisions should revolve around the value verification and release cycle of potential blockbuster drugs [8] - Early-stage investments focus on companies with disruptive technology platforms or unique scientific insights, with high risk but potentially huge returns [9] - Key value inflection points occur when core pipelines enter critical clinical stages, significantly increasing success probabilities [11] Group 5: Timing and Exit Strategies - Timing is crucial; knowing when to invest is often more important than which company to invest in [19] - Investors should exit when core value drivers are disproven, growth expectations peak, or when nearing patent cliffs [17] - Continuous tracking of pipeline progress, competitive landscape, clinical data, regulatory dynamics, and sales performance is essential [19] Group 6: Final Conclusion - Innovative drug investment focuses on identifying and investing in companies experiencing non-linear value growth driven by breakthrough drugs [20] - Successful investment requires scientific insight, business judgment, probability thinking, and strict timing discipline [20]

一、证券市场回顾 南财金融终端数据显示，昨日上证综指日内上涨0.42%，收于3376.2点；深证成指日内上涨0.87%，收于10144.58点；创业板指日内上涨1.11%，收于2024.93 点。 昨日股票型ETF跌幅最大的3支ETF及其收益率分别为：平安中证粤港澳大湾区发展主题ETF(-1.4%)、国泰中证内地运输主题ETF(-0.82%)、华夏上证科创板 半导体材料设备主题ETF(-0.72%)。 二、ETF市场表现1、股票型ETF整体市场表现 昨日股票型ETF收益率中位数为0.56%。其中按照不同分类，规模指数ETF中招商创业板大盘ETF收益率最高，为1.61%；行业指数ETF中国泰中证有色金属 矿业主题ETF收益率最高，为1.88%；策略指数ETF中华宝标普中国A股红利机会ETF收益率最高，为1.24%；风格指数ETF中易方达创业板成长ETF收益率最 高，为1.87%；主题指数ETF中中金中证科技先锋ETF收益率最高。 2、股票型ETF涨跌幅排行 昨日股票型ETF涨幅最高的3支ETF及其收益率分别为：中金中证科技先锋ETF、华泰柏瑞中证沪港深创新药产业ETF、西藏东财中证沪港深创新药产业 ETF。 4 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher on June 5, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.63% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 0.65% [1] - The Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (159567) saw a rise of 1.26%, with a turnover rate of 16.38% and a trading volume exceeding 280 million yuan, indicating active trading [1] - Notable stocks within the ETF included Zai Lab, which rose over 7%, Hutchison China MediTech, which increased over 4%, and Luye Pharma, which gained over 3% [1] Group 2 - China National Pharmaceutical Group announced that its Bemarituzumab injection combined with Anlotinib capsules achieved a median progression-free survival (PFS) of 11 months in treating PD-L1 positive advanced non-small cell lung cancer, outperforming the global leader Pembrolizumab by 3.9 months [1] - According to Zhongtai Securities, the Chinese innovative drug industry is transitioning from a previous capital bubble to a phase of genuine results, suggesting a positive outlook for the pharmaceutical sector [1] - The report recommends actively investing in segments expected to recover, such as CRO&CDMO, upstream research, specialty raw materials, chain pharmacies, and branded OTC products [1] Group 3 - Guoyuan Securities stated that China's innovative drugs have gained recognition from large overseas pharmaceutical companies, demonstrating that the R&D capabilities are internationally competitive and a key driver for growth [2] - The innovative drug sector in China is entering a phase of realization of results, with numerous catalysts in R&D progress, which is expected to remain a main investment theme in the pharmaceutical sector through 2025 [2]

Core Insights - The 2025 American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) annual meeting in Chicago showcased a record 73 oral reports on innovative drugs from China, highlighting the rapid development of domestic innovative pharmaceuticals [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect medical ETF (513200) has seen a year-to-date increase of 42.23%, while the Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF (159316) has surged by 52.19%, indicating strong market performance in the innovative drug sector [1] - The Chinese innovative drug industry is entering a new phase of profitability, with leading biotech companies beginning to expand internationally, suggesting a favorable investment outlook [2] Investment Landscape - The innovative drug sector is identified as a core investment theme within the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, characterized by high certainty and leadership potential [2] - E Fund's medical industry index products cover A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. stocks, with a total scale of nearly 27 billion yuan across six medical-related ETFs, making it a leader in the industry [3] - The Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF (159316) tracks the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index, which includes leading companies in the innovative drug field, with significant exposure to biotechnology and chemical pharmaceuticals [4] Key Holdings - The top holdings in the Hang Seng Innovative Drug Index include Innovent Biologics, CanSino Biologics, and WuXi Biologics, each with a weight exceeding 8% [5] - The index's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 22.96, indicating a higher safety margin compared to historical averages [6] - The China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical and Health Comprehensive Index includes 50 liquid and large-cap healthcare companies, reflecting the overall performance of the sector [6][8]

该基金核心持仓包括创新药企业恒瑞医药、百济神州、信达生物、科伦药业、中国生物制药、翰森制药 以及CXO的药明康德、凯莱英和泰格医药，是少数同时布局A股和港股创新药龙头的基金，也是跟踪该 指数的全市场独家产品。 未来以创新药为核心的医药科技股有望成为行情的焦点！当前医药行业估值处于过去10年中较低水平， 其刚需属性决定行业未来兼具成长性和确定性。布局创新药，可上支付宝搜索天弘恒生沪深港创新药50 指数（C类份额：014565，A类份额：014564）。如想布局ETF的投资者，创新药ETF天弘（代码： 517380）。市场有风险，投资需谨慎，所提及个股仅作展示，不作任何推荐。 天弘恒生沪深港创新药精选50指数布局较为完整的创新药产业链，覆盖临床前研究﹣临床研究﹣研发定 制生产﹣药品上市及商业化各环节，从机制上可进一步降低投资创新药企业本身存在的不确定性，获得 较好的收益风险特征和长期投资回报。 6月4日早盘，创新药再度走强。截至11:22，恒生沪深港创新药精选50指数涨超2.7%，成股份信达生物 涨13%，泰格医药、亚盛医药﹣B、科伦药业涨超3%。 消息面上，当地时间2025年5月30日至6月3日，2025年美国 ...

Group 1 - The pharmaceutical sector has shown strong performance recently, with the Hang Seng Innovation Drug ETF (159316) and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical ETF (513200) both experiencing significant gains, tracking indices that rose over 4% [1] - The National Medical Products Administration of China has approved 11 new drugs for market launch, covering various fields including oncology and endocrinology, with several being the "first in China" or "first domestic" in their respective categories [1] - Among the 11 new drugs, 7 are classified as Category 1 drugs, representing the highest level of drug innovation in China's registration classification system [1] Group 2 - Institutions indicate that favorable domestic policies are emerging to encourage high-quality innovation, which may continue to drive rapid growth in corporate performance, with commercial insurance development potentially benefiting the sustained release of innovative products [2] - The valuation levels of domestic innovative drugs are considered low, with some products having the potential to be the best in their global category, suggesting a positive outlook for innovative drugs to enter international markets and achieve premium valuations [2] - The Hang Seng Innovation Drug ETF (159316) tracks the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovation Drug Index, which includes leading companies in the innovative drug sector listed on the Hong Kong Stock Connect [2]