证券研究报告｜基金配置周报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 海南自贸港全岛封关，可关注哪些机会？ 【20251215-20251221】 ◼ 市场回顾：上周权益市场主要指数多数收跌，科创 50 跌幅最 大，下跌 2.99%；债券市场长短端利率集体下行，其中十年期 国债下行 0.88BP，一年期国债下行 3.32BP,长短端信用利差走 势不一；基金市场中偏股基金指数周度收跌，而二级债基指数 周度收涨，中长期纯债基金指数和短期纯债基金指数也周度收 涨；申万一级行业涨跌互现，消费板块集体反弹。 ◼ 权益类产品配置策略： ➢ 事件驱动策略：（1） 2025 光伏行业年度大会召开，可关注： 嘉实低碳精选 A(017036)、长城中国智造 A (001880)和工银生 态环境 A（001245）；（2）中国光计算芯片有新突破，可关注： 博时半导体主题 A(012650)、华夏半导体龙头(016500)和工银 新兴制造 A（009707）；（3）海南自贸港全岛封关，可关注： 嘉实物流产业 A(003298)、广发睿毅领先 A(005233)和嘉实互 融精选 A（006603）。 ➢ 资产配置策略：均衡底仓+杠铃策略，杠铃 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - Bank of America suggests that the market may soon start betting on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January, despite cautious signals from the Fed [1] - The bank anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut in December, along with stronger guidance and dissenting opinions, projecting stronger growth and lower inflation [1] - Analysts believe that with significant data releases before January, Chairman Powell will find it difficult to suppress market expectations for further easing [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook in Thailand - Barclays economists report that the Bank of Thailand may resist rate hikes in 2026 due to lower-than-potential growth prospects and inflation rates below the 1%-3% target range [2] - The central bank aims to maintain a loose monetary policy and focus on addressing structural economic issues [2] - Even with rising price pressures, the central bank is unlikely to change its policy stance, prioritizing economic growth and financial stability over inflation [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Technology and Commodities - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) sees significant investment opportunities in the technology sector within the machinery industry for 2026, driven by domestic demand recovery and high export growth [3] - CITIC Construction points out that copper, aluminum, and gold have clear long-term investment logic due to global macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical risks [4] - The report highlights that copper will benefit from supply tightness and green economy demand, while aluminum is constrained by domestic capacity limits [4] Group 4: Energy Storage and AI Development - CITIC Construction expects the energy storage industry to see a rise in both volume and price by 2026, with manufacturing profitability currently at unsustainable low levels [5] - The ongoing development of AI large models and applications is noted, with a recommendation to continue focusing on the AI computing power sector [6] - The report emphasizes the potential for new application scenarios and business models arising from the construction of space data centers [8] Group 5: Market Predictions for Copper and Panel Industry - CITIC Securities predicts that LME copper prices could accelerate towards $12,000 per ton, driven by narratives of U.S. copper stockpiling and domestic production cuts [8] - The panel industry is expected to see a positive long-term outlook due to improved competition dynamics and a shift from price-driven profit to value creation [9]

作者 | 一财阿驴 12月8日，A股三大指数高开高走，截至收盘，沪指涨0.54%，深成指涨1.39%，创业板指涨2.6%。 2025.12. 08 本文字数：754，阅读时长大约2分钟 机构观点 华泰证券： 12月中下旬"春躁"可能提前启动，均衡配置成长和周期，中期视角下大金融和部分高性 价比消费或仍是中国资产重估的底仓选择。 | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | { | 3924.08c | 21.27 | 0.54% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | | 13329.99c | 182.31 | 1.39% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | | 3190.27 c | 80.97 | 2.60% | 盘面上，算力硬件概念股多点开花，CPO方向领涨；锂矿、光刻机、超硬材料、消费电子、商业航 天题材活跃。煤炭、油气等资源股走弱。 具体来看，福建本地股全线走强，厦门信达、永辉超市、安记食品等超20股涨停。 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨幅量 | 现价 | | -- ...

截至2025年12月8日13:59，云计算ETF天弘(517390)盘中换手7.02%，成交2690.99万元，位居同类产品第 一。跟踪的中证沪港深云计算产业指数(931470)强势上涨3.45%，成分股新易盛(300502)上涨8.05%，中际 旭创(300308)上涨7.55%，汉得信息(300170)上涨6.68%，曙光数创(920808)，星网锐捷(002396)等个股跟 涨。 拉长时间看，截至12月5日，云计算ETF天弘(517390)近3月规模增长1520.73万元，实现显著增长。 云计算ETF沪港深(517390)，对应场外联接(A：019171；C：019170)。 机器人ETF(159770)，对应场外联接基金(A：014880；C：014881)。 机器人ETF(159770)盘中换手3.36%，成交3.33亿元。跟踪的中证机器人指数(H30590)上涨0.97%，成分股海 目星(688559)上涨10.09%，景业智能(688290)上涨6.28%，燕麦科技(688312)上涨5.48%，大族激光(002008) 上涨5.38%，克来机电(603960)上涨2.90%。 值得一提的是，机 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened with a slight decline of 0.07%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index saw a minor increase of 0.08% [1] - Notable performers in the Hong Kong stock market included Health Road, which rose over 3%, and several companies like SMIC and AAC Technologies, which increased by more than 2% [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech ETF (513860) experienced a 0.13% rise, with a trading volume of 13.68 million yuan and a real-time premium rate of 0.01% [1] Group 2 - A significant trend in the Hong Kong stock market has been a surge in share buybacks, with 250 companies participating and repurchasing over 7 billion shares for a total amount exceeding 162 billion HKD as of December 4 [2] - The technology and consumer discretionary sectors have been the most active in terms of buybacks, driven by factors such as reasonable blue-chip valuations and companies holding ample cash [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's upcoming revision of the "treasury stock new regulations" in June 2024 will allow companies to repurchase shares without canceling them, thus lowering operational barriers for buybacks [2] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech ETF (513860) closely tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech Index, which includes 50 large-cap technology companies with high R&D investment and rapid revenue growth [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include major players like Alibaba, Tencent, SMIC, Xiaomi, and BYD [3] - According to CICC, the technology sector is expected to present significant investment opportunities by 2026, particularly in new infrastructure driven by technological innovation and structural opportunities arising from domestic demand recovery and high export growth [3]

Core Insights - Deep value fund managers, who performed well during the bear market, are underperforming in the current bull market, primarily due to the significant rise in technology stocks and growth-oriented funds [1][2][10] - The average annual return of deep value fund managers is below the industry average, with many products yielding less than 20% year-to-date, while the CSI Active Equity Fund Index has achieved a return of 34.11% [3][9] - The investment philosophy of deep value managers focuses on long-term intrinsic value, safety margins, and stable business models, which contrasts sharply with the growth-oriented approach that prioritizes high growth potential and current market trends [10][11][12] Performance Comparison - As of September 24, 2023, prominent deep value fund managers like Xu Yan and Jiang Cheng have seen their flagship products yield less than 20%, with only a few exceeding 30% [3][9] - The performance of deep value funds is generally in line with the CSI 300 Index, which has a year-to-date return of 15.63% [10] - In contrast, growth-oriented funds have seen returns exceeding 200% in some cases, highlighting the stark difference in performance between the two styles [5][10] Market Trends - The current market environment favors growth-oriented strategies, particularly in sectors like technology and innovation, while deep value strategies are struggling due to their focus on low-valuation sectors such as finance and real estate [10][12][26] - The number of deep value fund managers is relatively small compared to growth-oriented managers, and many notable deep value figures have left the industry, further limiting the available options for investors [25][29] Investment Strategy - Deep value funds are recommended for conservative investors as a core holding, while growth funds may be allocated for those seeking higher returns [16][17] - A balanced approach that includes both deep value and growth strategies may provide better risk management and potential returns [18][19] - Investors should be cautious of deep value funds that show unusually high performance in a bull market, as this may indicate a shift in investment style [16]

Market Overview - The equity market experienced a collective decline last week, with the North Certificate 50 index dropping the most at 2.55% [5][6] - The bond market saw a collective decline in both short and long-term interest rates, with the 1-year government bond rate decreasing by 4.50 basis points to 1.355% [9][13] - The fund market reflected the equity market's downturn, with the偏股基金指数 down 1.65% and the二级债基指数 down 0.07% [15][16] Event-Driven Strategy - The National Medical Products Administration has initiated support for the innovation of high-end medical devices, highlighting investment opportunities in funds such as 南方医药保健 A (000452), 鹏华品牌传承 (000431), and 信澳健康中国 A (003291) [17] - Xiaomi's first SUV is set to launch, presenting potential investment in 工银新能源汽车 A (005939), 嘉实港股互联网产业核心资产 A (011924), and 鹏华新能源汽车 A (016067) [17][18] - The World Mobile Communications Conference held in Shanghai showcased advancements in robotics, indicating investment potential in 华夏智造升级 A (016075), 嘉实制造升级 A (018240), and 鹏华碳中和主题 A (016530) [19] Asset Allocation Strategy - The report suggests a balanced core and barbell strategy, focusing on dividend and technology sectors, with recommended funds including 安信红利精选 A (018381) and 嘉实港股互联网核心资产 (011924) [20][21] - The report emphasizes the value of high-dividend assets due to the low interest rate environment and government policies encouraging dividends [20] - The technology growth sector is highlighted for its investment value, driven by national policy support and the global trend towards artificial intelligence [21] Stable Product Allocation Strategy - The central bank's recent actions indicate a net injection of 102.1 billion yuan, maintaining a balanced and loose funding environment [24] - The report notes that the LPR remained unchanged at 3.0% for the 1-year rate, aligning with market expectations [25] - Economic data from May showed better-than-expected performance, with industrial value-added growth at 5.8% year-on-year [25] Key Focus Products - Recommended funds include 诺德短债 A (005350) for short-term strategies and 安信新价值 A (003026) for a bond-equity hybrid approach [30][29]

Group 1: Market Overview - The market is expected to enter a phase where macro factors become less disruptive, with domestic policies emphasizing a "stable and active capital market" [1] - The macroeconomic environment is likely to remain stable, with reduced uncertainties from overseas factors, particularly regarding U.S. tariff policies [1][2] - The market is anticipated to maintain a range-bound fluctuation, with dividend stocks being a preferred choice for low-risk investors [1][3] Group 2: Sector Insights - The AI healthcare sector shows resilience, with ongoing positive developments despite a weak correlation with the broader healthcare market [2] - The innovative drug sector has seen unexpected strength, but there is an anticipated increase in market scrutiny regarding the fundamentals of these companies [3] - The military industry, particularly upstream targets, may experience a valuation shift due to improved recognition of domestic and foreign demand for advanced weaponry [4][5] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Focus on identifying structural opportunities within cyclical sectors, such as rare metals and agriculture, which may show fundamental changes [6] - High-dividend assets remain attractive in a liquidity-rich environment, with expectations of declining insurance policy rates and increasing dividend payout ratios [7] - The market may stabilize in June, with potential risks from external factors, but the focus will remain on sectors with independent growth logic [8][9]