证券研究报告 | 2025年08月23日 金融工程日报 沪指单边上行站上 3800 点，本周累计涨幅 3.49%创年内最佳 核心观点 金融工程日报 市场表现：20250822 市场全线上涨，规模指数中上证 50 指数表现较好，板 块指数中科创 50 指数表现较好，风格指数中中证 500 成长指数表现较好。 电子、通信、计算机、非银、国防军工行业表现较好，银行、石油石化、农 林牧渔、钢铁、交通运输行业表现较差。服务器、万得元宇宙、炒股软件、 AIPC、ASIC 芯片等概念表现较好，黄酒、宠物经济、家纺、西藏振兴、培 育钻石等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：20250822 收盘时有 81 只股票涨停，有 4 只股票跌停。昨日涨 停股票今日高开高走，收盘收益为 1.94%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘收益为 -0.57%。今日封板率 84%，较前日提升 25%，连板率 25%，较前日提升 13%， 封板率创近一个月新高。 市场资金流向：截至 20250821 两融余额为 21468 亿元，其中融资余额 21320 亿元，融券余额 148 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.3%，两融 交易占市场成交额比重为 11.0%。 折溢 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent performance of the innovative drug ETF Guotai (517110), which has seen a net inflow for four consecutive days and a year-to-date increase of over 50% [1] - Leading pharmaceutical companies in China, such as Three-Sixty Pharmaceutical and China National Pharmaceutical Group, have secured significant overseas contracts, indicating a growing trend in the international market for Chinese innovative drugs [1] - On July 28, 2025, Heng Rui Pharmaceutical announced an agreement with GSK to grant global exclusive rights for the HRS-9821 project and up to 11 additional projects, with an initial payment of $500 million from GSK, and potential milestone payments totaling approximately $12 billion [1] Group 2 - The collaboration model between Heng Rui and GSK, which involves shared risks and benefits, sets a new paradigm for the international expansion of Chinese innovative drugs [1] - Continuous policy support in the industry is expected to lead to an increase in both profitability and valuation for the sector [1] - The integration of artificial intelligence is anticipated to further enhance market sentiment and valuation within the innovative drug sector, making the innovative drug ETF (517110) a potential long-term investment opportunity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows positive momentum with significant gains in major indices, driven by favorable policies and strong performance in the innovative drug sector [1][3]. Policy Support - The National Medical Insurance Administration has initiated the 11th batch of centralized drug procurement, focusing on mature "old drugs" while excluding innovative drugs from this process, which is expected to provide better economic support for innovative drugs [3]. - A dual-track payment system is being established, combining basic medical insurance with commercial health insurance for innovative drugs, enhancing the financial backing for drug companies [3]. - The resumption of the fifth set of listing standards for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the reduction of clinical trial review periods to 30 days are creating a favorable regulatory environment for innovative drug companies [3]. Healthcare Fund Performance - The healthcare fund is operating steadily, with a total surplus of 5.31 trillion yuan, and both income and expenditure are showing year-on-year growth [4]. - Employee health insurance income increased by 3.5%, while expenditures rose by 7.6%, indicating a healthy growth trend in the sector [4]. Clinical Developments - Innovative drug companies are achieving significant milestones, such as Heng Rui Medicine's GLP-1/GIP dual-target weight loss drug showing a 19.2% average weight reduction in clinical trials, marking a breakthrough in metabolic disease treatments [4]. - Other companies are also advancing in clinical trials, with several new drug applications expected soon, reflecting the long-term value of the innovative drug industry [4]. Market Outlook - The innovative drug sector is expected to maintain high growth, driven by policy implementation, clinical data releases, and international business development [5][6]. - The introduction of a commercial health insurance directory for innovative drugs is anticipated to create a more favorable pricing environment and significantly increase the scale of payments for innovative drugs in the long term [5]. International Expansion - The trend of domestic innovative drugs moving towards global commercialization is accelerating, with expectations of over $50 billion in business development transactions in 2025 [6]. - Major academic conferences in late 2025 are expected to reveal critical data for Chinese innovative drugs, potentially enhancing their market positioning and driving new licensing deals [6]. Financial Performance - Leading companies in the innovative drug sector are transitioning from heavy R&D spending to self-sustaining business models, with profitability expected to improve due to increased commercialization of key products and enhanced R&D efficiency [7][8]. - The overall investment environment for biotech and startup pharmaceutical companies is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in financing events in 2025 [8]. Investment Opportunities - The innovative drug ETF Guotai (517110) is closely tracking the performance of quality innovative drug companies across A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, providing a diversified investment option [9]. - The newly issued Sci-Tech Innovation Drug ETF Guotai (589723) is expected to outperform the broader market, reflecting a stronger rebound potential in the innovative drug sector [9].

Group 1: Artificial Intelligence - The ongoing AI arms race is driving significant demand for computing power, with domestic and international cloud vendors increasing capital expenditures [1][3] - The global market for optical modules is expected to grow at a CAGR of 22% from 2024 to 2029, potentially exceeding $37 billion by 2029 [1] - Chinese optical module companies hold over 60% of the global market share, with the latest 2024 global optical module TOP10 list showing Chinese firms occupying 7 positions [3] Group 2: Innovative Pharmaceuticals - The number and value of License out agreements for Chinese innovative drugs are accelerating, with total License out amounts nearing $66 billion in the first half of 2025, surpassing the total for 2024 [3] - The domestic pharmaceutical industry is entering a phase of innovation realization after over a decade of substantial capital investment, which is expected to enhance the performance of innovative drug companies [3][6] - Policy improvements and expanded payment mechanisms are likely to support the profitability of leading biopharmaceutical companies, potentially leading to a "Davis Double" effect in the industry [6] Group 3: Securities - The A-share market is experiencing active trading, with an average daily turnover of nearly 1.4 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 62% year-on-year increase [7] - The recovery of brokerage firms' brokerage and proprietary business performance is driving better-than-expected mid-year forecasts [7] - The equity market is supported by a stable and active capital market, with ongoing high trading activity and a recovering Hong Kong IPO market [7] Group 4: Consumer Sector - The home appliance sector is benefiting from national subsidies, with domestic sales showing strong growth, reporting a 30.2% year-on-year increase in retail sales from January to May 2025 [8] - Export demand is expected to normalize as previously suppressed overseas shipments are released, aided by the upcoming traditional sales peak season [8] Group 5: Gaming Industry - The gaming sector is experiencing a recovery, with performance boosted by new game launches, policy support, and accelerated overseas expansion [9] - The actual sales revenue of China's gaming market reached 141.1 billion yuan in the first five months of 2025, reflecting a 17% year-on-year growth [9] - Emerging consumption trends, particularly in IP derivatives, are gaining market attention, with products like "LABUBU" from Pop Mart receiving widespread popularity overseas [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the importance of the measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, particularly the inclusion of innovative drugs in commercial insurance directories, which signifies an enhanced role of commercial insurance in the multi-tiered medical security system [1] - The National Healthcare Security Administration is promoting reforms in medical insurance payment methods, providing a broad space for the development of commercial insurance, which is expected to play a greater role in supporting high-priced innovative drugs and medical devices [1] - The innovative drug industry in China is experiencing rapid development, with upstream industries such as research reagents and CXO also showing signs of recovery, and performance is expected to improve gradually starting from the 2025 mid-year report [1] Group 2 - The innovative drug ETF managed by Guotai tracks the SHS Innovative Drug Index, which focuses on companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges involved in new drug research, production, and sales [1] - The index aims to reflect the overall performance of China's innovative drug industry, selecting companies with strong innovation capabilities and market potential, particularly in high-growth segments of the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors [1]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with mixed index performances, where the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.42%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.56% and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.73% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.61 trillion yuan, an increase of 153.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] AI Sector Performance - AI-related stocks, including optical modules, liquid-cooled servers, and AI applications, led the market gains [1] - The China Securities Index reported that the AI-focused ETF from Guotai (159388) surged by 6.97%, and the communication ETF (515880) rose by 6.14%, both reaching historical highs [3] Nvidia's Market Impact - Nvidia announced it received permission from the Trump administration to resume sales of the "special version" H20 chips to China, following a meeting between CEO Jensen Huang and President Trump [5] - The introduction of a new GPU based on the Blackwell architecture, compliant with U.S. export regulations, is expected to enhance investments in AI infrastructure [5][7] - The easing of U.S.-China trade tensions since June has alleviated concerns over chip shortages in China, benefiting AI data centers and related sectors [5][6] Optical Module Sector Growth - New Yi Sheng, a leader in optical modules, projected a significant profit increase for the first half of 2025, estimating a net profit of 3.7 billion to 4.2 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 327.68% to 385.47% [6] - The North American cloud service providers' capital expenditure reached 77.1 billion USD in Q1 2025, a 59% increase, indicating a strong demand for optical modules [6] Innovation Drug Sector Developments - The innovation drug ETF from Guotai (517110) rose by 1.74%, supported by favorable policies from the National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission [9] - The domestic innovation drug market is expected to see significant growth, with a projected increase in the number of innovative drugs entering clinical trials [9][10] - AI is anticipated to enhance the pharmaceutical industry across various stages, including drug development and production [10]

Group 1 - The S&P Oil and Gas ETF (159518) led the gains with an increase of 3.44% [1] - The S&P Oil and Gas ETF (513350) also showed a significant rise of 3.29% [1] - The Innovative Drug ETF from Guotai (517110) increased by 1.98% [1] Group 2 - The Gold Stock ETF (159321) was the biggest loser, declining by 2.25% [1] - The Gold Stock ETF (517520) fell by 2.15% [1] - The Nonferrous Metal ETF Fund (516650) decreased by 2.13% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights significant advancements in innovative drug companies, particularly the approval of new drugs by regulatory authorities, indicating a positive trend in the sector [1][2] - DiZhe Pharmaceutical's new drug, Shuwozhe, has received FDA approval for treating advanced non-small cell lung cancer, marking it as China's first independently developed innovative drug approved in the U.S. [1] - The National Healthcare Security Administration has introduced guidelines for adjusting the commercial health insurance innovative drug directory, which will include drugs with significant clinical value that exceed basic insurance coverage [2] Group 2 - The innovative drug sector has shown impressive growth in the first half of 2025, although it is currently experiencing a short-term adjustment [2] - China's innovative drug industry is transitioning from "importing and imitating" to "innovative output," enhancing its international competitiveness [2] - The innovative drug ETF Guotai (517110) has performed well, gaining 2.80% on July 3, indicating strong market interest in this sector [3][4]

Group 1 - The ETF market showed mixed performance, with the Steel ETF (515210) leading gains at 3.69% [1] - The leading photovoltaic ETF (516290) increased by 3.37%, while the Photovoltaic 50 ETF (516880) rose by 3.19% [1] - The innovative drug ETF from FuGuo (159748) experienced the largest decline at 5.14%, followed by the Hong Kong Stock Connect innovative drug ETF (159570) which fell by 4.25%, and the Guotai innovative drug ETF (517110) decreased by 3.3% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese pharmaceutical sector is experiencing positive momentum due to supportive government policies aimed at fostering the development of innovative drugs, which is expected to enhance the industry's growth and investment opportunities [3]. Policy Support - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission have issued measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, including increased R&D support, inclusion in basic medical insurance, and improved clinical application [3]. - The introduction of the 2025 basic medical insurance directory and commercial health insurance innovative drug directory aims to enhance the multi-tiered medical security system, addressing payment challenges for high-value innovative drugs [3]. Market Outlook - The year 2025 is anticipated to be significant for domestic innovative drugs entering international markets, following a seven-year transition from generic to innovative drugs since the "4+7" procurement policy was implemented in 2018 [3]. - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to see a rise in sentiment and valuation due to ongoing policy support, improved payment mechanisms, enhanced R&D capabilities, and the integration of AI technologies [4]. AI Integration - AI is projected to comprehensively empower the pharmaceutical industry, improving efficiency in drug development, production, and medical services [4]. - The implementation plan for the digital transformation of the pharmaceutical industry aims for comprehensive coverage of intelligent transformation by 2030 [4]. Investment Opportunities - The innovative drug ETFs, such as Guotai (517110), are highlighted as worthy of continued attention, alongside other ETFs focused on the entrepreneurial and biopharmaceutical sectors [4].