来源：市场资讯 （来源：懒人财知道） 周四盘中，现货黄金再现过山车走势，亚市盘中遭遇猛烈抛售，自日内高点4110.22美元/盎司大幅下 挫，随后在4045.95美元/盎司位置触底反弹，目前下跌0.43%报4060.71美元/盎司。 究其原因，一方面，美联储周三公布会议纪要显示，尽管美联储上个月决议降息，但决策官员意见分 歧，并警告降低借贷成本可能会破坏为平抑通胀所做的努力。另一方面，9月份非农就业报告定于周四 发布。据预测显示，美国9月新增就业岗位5万个，失业率预计维持在4.3%的稳定水平。 受上述因素影响，投资者下调了对进一步宽松货币政策的预期，造成了日内的下跌。芝商所(CME) 的"美联储观察"工具显示，交易员目前认为12月降息的机率只有30%左右。 相信在此形势下，不少朋友都有些迷茫，下面，就让我们一起来看看今天的交易员和大V预判和解读。 大宝上海金融： 早盘黄金的下跌主要因重要数据停止发布所影响。美国10月就业报告停止发布，11月就业数据12月16日 才能发布，导致将于12月9日召开的美联储12月议息会议再无重要数据作参考，直接影响了投资者对12 月降息的预期，直接导致了金价的下跌。 今日行情出现剧烈 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's October policy meeting minutes are expected to reveal clearer divisions among policymakers regarding monetary policy direction, particularly in light of conflicting market signals and the absence of official data due to the government shutdown [1] Group 1: Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points with a 10-2 voting outcome, indicating a significant split in opinions among members [1] - Chairman Powell acknowledged "serious differences of opinion" during the press conference following the rate cut decision [1] Group 2: Data and Economic Signals - The absence of official economic data due to the government shutdown has left officials relying on alternative information, which may heighten their cautious sentiment towards further rate cuts [1] - Powell mentioned that "more and more members believe that a pause to observe for at least one cycle is warranted" [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Although the release of government economic data is gradually resuming, the timeline for complete data availability remains uncertain, complicating the assessment ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting in December [1]

在东京债券市场，日本长期国债普遍因遭到抛售而价格下跌，导致收益率不断上扬，接连突破历史高 点。19日，由于投资者购债意欲低下，作为长期利率指标的新发行10年期国债收益率一度升至 1.775%，为2008年6月以来最高。 在东京外汇市场，自高市当选日本自民党总裁进而当选日本首相后，日元重新进入下降通道，不断走 软。近日，由于媒体纷纷报道日本政府拟推出大规模财政刺激计划，日元贬值势头再度加剧，日元对美 元汇率下探至1美元兑换155日元左右。（完） 新华社东京11月19日电（记者刘春燕）由于日本首相高市早苗力推积极财政政策并主张保持宽松货币政 策等多重因素，投资者对日本政府财政状况恶化的忧虑不断上升，日本金融市场连日来遭遇股债汇"三 杀"。 截至19日，东京股市两大股指连续4个交易日下跌，日经股指累计下跌2700多点。投资者担心高市早苗 日前发表的涉台严重错误言论导致日中关系持续恶化，不仅百货、运输、酒店等与入境消费关系密切的 行业股票大跌，一些倚重中国市场的公司股票也因业绩前景难料遭到投资者抛售。此外，由于纽约股市 近日频繁调整，三大股指多次全面下跌，日本股市很多投资者选择获利了结、离场观望。 责任编辑：刘万里 ...

新华财经东京11月19日电（记者刘春燕）由于日本首相高市早苗力推积极财政政策并主张货币政策应保 持宽松，市场对日本财政状况恶化的忧虑不断上升，日本最近两日连续遭遇股债汇"三杀"。 截至19日，东京股市两大股指连续4个交易日下跌，日经股指累计跌去2700多点。由于投资者担心中日 关系恶化，不仅百货、运输、酒店等与入境消费关系密切的行业股票大跌，一些在倚重中国市场的公司 也因业绩变得不透明遭到投资者抛售。此外，由于纽约股市近日频繁调整，三大股指多次全面下跌，很 多投资者选择获利了结、离场观望。 在东京债券市场，高市早苗上台以来，投资者对日本政府财政恶化的忧虑不断加深，各种期限的长期国 债普遍遭到投资者抛售，导致长债价格下跌、收益率不断上扬，接连突破历史高点。19日，由于投资者 购债意欲低下，作为长期利率指标的新发10年期国债收益率一度升至1.775%，创下2008年6月以来的最 高。 在东京外汇市场，10月3日日元对美元汇率还徘徊于1美元兑147日元区间，其后随着高市当选日本自民 党总裁并进而当选日本首相，日元重新进入下降通道，不断走软。近日，由于此间媒体纷纷报道日本政 府拟推出大规模财政刺激计划，市场对政府增发 ...

内外需同时"哑火"，日本经济在年末拉响警报。受美国关税政策的影响逐步显现，今年第三季度日本国内生产总值（GDP）实际按年率计算下降1.8%，这是 日本经济在六个季度中首次呈现负增长态势。外需急剧收缩是此轮负增长的核心推手，但还面临着内需疲软局面，叠加近期新任首相高市早苗表态引起政治 波动，本就步履维艰的日本经济陷入三重困局。 外需收缩、内需疲软 日本内阁府17日发布的初步统计结果显示，日本三季度实际国内生产总值（GDP），剔除物价变动因素后的实际GDP较上季度减少0.4%，按年率计算下降 1.8%。这是自2024年第一季度以来，日本季度GDP增速首次呈现负增长。 具体数据显示，三季度，日本个人消费环比增幅仅为0.1%；在进出口方面，三季度日本出口增速下降1.2%，进口增速下降0.1%。此外住房投资继续疲软， 与二季度相比下降9.4%。 旅游经济冲击 日本内需不振的态势已趋于长期化。日本内阁府近期将2025财年经济增长预期从1.2%下调至0.7%，显示出对经济前景的深度忧虑。而高市早苗近期的言 论，更令日本经济雪上加霜。 高市早苗7日在国会答辩时就"台湾有事"表示，如果伴随出动军舰和使用武力，可能会构成"存亡危 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The release of the Fed's loose monetary policy expectations still requires a certain period. The Fed Chairman has explained balance - sheet expansion. The October FOMC meeting signaled that a December rate cut remains uncertain while strengthening the subsequent "rate cut + balance - sheet expansion" monetary policy approach. In the loose monetary policy cycle, combined with potential spot shortages, it is recommended to buy silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 11001 - 12366 yuan/kilogram [4] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 0.06% to 915.24 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver rose 0.11% to 11359.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold was reported at 3984.80 dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver at 47.85 dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.11%, and the US dollar index at 99.72 [2] - The Fed's hawkish voting member expressed concerns about inflation and even signaled a rate hike. Gold and silver prices rose and then fell, remaining in a short - term trading range [2] Fed Officials' Speeches - 2026 FOMC voting member and hawkish official Hamark emphasized inflation risks in her speech early today. She believes that monetary policy may not be well - prepared to deal with the current inflation level, and the current economic environment is not conducive to further rate cuts. She also said that the Fed does not need to raise rates to combat inflationary pressures, but admitted that this view "may change" [2] - New York Fed President Williams said that the neutral interest rate is difficult to estimate, showing 1% at the model level. He also emphasized the tenacity of inflation and believes it is right to bring inflation down to 2% as soon as possible [3] - Fed Governor Milan continued to state that a 50 - basis - point rate cut is reasonable and expects the Fed to cut rates further in December [3] Gold and Silver Data - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was 3984.80 dollars/ounce (down 0.14% from the previous day), the trading volume was 18.36 million lots (up 6.90%), the open interest was 52.88 million lots (up 2.43%), and the inventory was 1177 tons (down 0.09%) [6] - **LBMA Gold**: The closing price was 3986.50 dollars/ounce (up 0.46%) [6] - **SHFE Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was 917.80 yuan/gram (up 0.61%), the trading volume was 32.39 million lots (down 30.13%), the open interest was 33.62 million lots (up 0.61%), the inventory was 87.82 tons (unchanged), and the settled funds were 493.66 billion yuan (up 1.22%) [6] - **AuT + D**: The closing price was 917.51 yuan/gram (up 0.88%), the trading volume was 40.59 tons (down 31.84%), and the open interest was 254.88 tons (down 0.20%) [6] - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was 47.85 dollars/ounce (down 0.03%), the open interest was 16.58 million lots (up 1.75%), and the inventory was 14975 tons (unchanged) [6] - **LBMA Silver**: The closing price was 48.69 dollars/ounce (up 2.26%) [6] - **SHFE Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was 11427.00 yuan/kilogram (up 1.34%), the trading volume was 102.78 million lots (down 26.10%), the open interest was 68.88 million lots (up 1.19%), the inventory was 639.94 tons (down 2.47%), and the settled funds were 212.52 billion yuan (up 2.55%) [6] - **AgT + D**: The closing price was 11421.00 yuan/kilogram (up 1.61%), the trading volume was 460.06 tons (down 9.58%), and the open interest was 4303.142 tons (up 0.55%) [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is weak, and the overall view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts decreases, while the long - term expectation of a loose monetary policy still exists [1]. - For varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. In the short term, due to the strong resilience of macro - economic indicators, there is no strong need for a comprehensive interest rate cut, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is limited. In the long term, a relatively loose monetary environment is needed to stabilize the demand side, which strongly supports treasury bond futures. Overall, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The time - cycle definitions are: short - term is within one week, and medium - term is from two weeks to one month. For the TL2512 variety, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, and the view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is the change in interest rate cut expectations [1]. 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The short - term and long - term driving logics are based on macro - economic indicators and the need for a monetary environment [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent weak and volatile prices of gold and silver are due to the tight overseas liquidity, but this risk has been reduced for the time being [4]. - The release of the Fed's loose monetary policy expectations still requires a certain period. The October FOMC meeting signaled the uncertainty of a December rate cut and strengthened the subsequent "rate cut + balance - sheet expansion" monetary policy approach [4]. - In the loose monetary policy cycle, combined with the potential tight physical market, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 11,001 - 12,366 yuan/kilogram [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 0.63% to 916.38 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 1.58% to 11,381.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 3,990.40 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 47.86 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.17%, and the US dollar index was reported at 100.16 [2]. - After President Trump's speech on resolving the government shutdown, the market's expectation of liquidity tightening was alleviated. The better - than - expected US October ADP employment data eased the recession trading after the release of the ISM manufacturing PMI, and the price of silver outperformed that of gold [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - The accumulation of the TGA account balance due to the US government shutdown is an important reason for the recent tight market liquidity. Trump's speech indicates that liquidity repair will occur soon, and the prices of gold and silver have stabilized [3]. - The number of new ADP employment in the US in October was 42,000, higher than the expected 28,000 and the previous value of - 32,000. The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 52.4, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50. The overseas recession expectation has eased, and the gold - silver ratio has declined [3]. 3.3 Data Summary - For gold, the closing price of the active COMEX contract increased by 1.25% to 3,990.40 US dollars/ounce, the trading volume decreased by 29.77% to 171,800 lots, the CFTC - reported open interest increased by 2.43% to 528,800 lots, and the inventory remained unchanged at 1,178 tons [6]. - For silver, the closing price of the active COMEX contract increased by 2.06% to 47.86 US dollars/ounce, the trading volume increased by 2.82% to 1,390,900 lots, the open interest decreased by 1.55% to 680,700 lots, and the inventory decreased by 1.42% to 656.17 tons [6].

Core Insights - Indonesia's GDP grew by 5.04% year-on-year in Q3, but the sustainability of this growth is under threat due to slowing export growth and weakening consumer confidence [1] Economic Performance - The report highlights that Indonesia's consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.86% year-on-year in September, indicating a rebound in inflation, yet it remains within the central bank's target range of 2% to 4% [1] - The central bank is expected to maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance as long as inflation stays within the target range [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - To support economic growth, the central bank may further cut interest rates in the coming months, with a cumulative reduction of up to 75 basis points anticipated by early 2026 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current overseas market has relatively scarce liquidity, leading to a general decline in major risk assets and weak performance of gold and silver prices. However, the tightening liquidity means a higher probability of subsequent expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, which will significantly drive up the prices of gold and silver. The release of the Fed's loose monetary policy expectations still requires a certain period, but the Fed Chairman has explained the balance - sheet expansion. The October interest - rate meeting sent a signal that the December interest rate cut is still uncertain while strengthening the subsequent "interest rate cut + balance - sheet expansion" monetary policy approach. In the loose monetary policy cycle, combined with the potential tightness in the physical market, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 11001 - 12366 yuan/kilogram [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On November 5, 2025, Shanghai gold fell 1.14% to 908.92 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 1.17% to 11226.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 3941.30 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 46.90 dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 4.1%, and the US dollar index was 100.19 [1] - From November 3 to November 4, 2025, the closing price of COMEX gold active contract dropped from 4013.70 dollars/ounce to 3941.30 dollars/ounce, a decrease of 1.80%; the trading volume increased from 22.38 million lots to 24.46 million lots, an increase of 9.30%. The closing price of COMEX silver active contract dropped from 47.91 dollars/ounce to 46.90 dollars/ounce, a decrease of 2.12%; the trading volume increased from 126.80 million lots to 135.28 million lots, an increase of 6.69% [5] 3.2 Market Analysis - The significant increase in the difference between the US SOFR rate and the EFFR shows that under the background of the US government shutdown, the US Treasury account occupies a large amount of funds, and the reserves on the Fed's liability side are scarce. The tightening liquidity is in line with Powell's previous speech, and the Fed will suspend balance - sheet reduction on December 1 [1] - In the silver physical market, although the premium of London silver relative to New York silver and the lease rate are relatively weak, the silver premium in India has significantly rebounded, indicating strong domestic silver demand in India [2] 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - In the loose monetary policy cycle, combined with the potential tightness in the physical market, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 11001 - 12366 yuan/kilogram [3]