Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state where the domestic supply significantly exceeds demand. The futures price of the main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, while international urea prices are strong. However, due to the export policy not being more relaxed than expected, the overall domestic market remains in a situation of oversupply. It is predicted that the urea market will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The recent urea futures price has been fluctuating weakly. The current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, and the overall inventory is at a high position. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has increased, the operating rate of melamine is at a medium level, and agricultural demand has entered the off - season. The overall domestic urea supply exceeds demand significantly. Although the theoretical export profit has reached a new high, the export volume has decreased due to policies and other reasons. The spot price of the delivery product is 1700 (-20), indicating a generally bearish fundamental situation [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 40, with a premium - discount ratio of 2.4%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.421 million tons (+51,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the main UR contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the main UR contract has increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The futures price of the main urea contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. International urea prices are strong, but the export policy has not been more relaxed than expected. The overall domestic supply exceeds demand significantly. It is expected that the UR market will fluctuate today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include strong international prices; bearish factors include high operating rates and daily production, and weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policies [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Inventory Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1700 | -20 | 01 Contract | 1660 | -1 | Warehouse Receipt | 7535 | -275 | | Shandong Spot | 1700 | -20 | Basis | 40 | -19 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 1.421 million tons | +51,000 tons | | Henan Spot | 1720 | -10 | UR01 | 1660 | -1 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 957,000 tons | +70,000 tons | | FOB China | 3201 | | UR05 | 1713 | -9 | UR Port Inventory | 464,000 tons | -19,000 tons | | | | | UR09 | 1734 | -10 | | | | [6] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Production Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 22.455 billion | | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | | | 2019 | | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | - | - | | 2023 | | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 01 contract showed an upward trend with a weekly increase of 1.37%. The supply pressure decreased this week, and next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease and production scheduling will increase slightly. The demand may remain sluggish, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The disk is expected to have a narrow - range adjustment next week [5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The 01 contract opened at 4883 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 4950 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 1.37% [5]. - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.40%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 328,605 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.14%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 132,310 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.16%. Next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease and production scheduling will increase slightly [5]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 49.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.76 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, films, and paste resins showed different trends, and the shipping cost is bearish. The current demand may remain sluggish [5]. - **Cost and Profit**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 657.2513 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 30.80%. The profit of the ethylene method was - 652.2011 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 2.00%. The double - ton spread was 2449.25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 0.40%. Production scheduling may be under pressure [6]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 306,239 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20%. Social inventory was 534,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.56%. The overall inventory is at a high level [6]. 3.2 PVC Futures Market - **Base - price Trend**: The document presents the base - price trend chart of PVC futures, but no specific analysis is provided [10]. - **Price and Volume**: The document shows the price and volume trends of the main contract, including opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and trading volume, as well as the net position changes of the top 5 and top 20 seats [13]. - **Spread Analysis**: The document shows the spread trends of the main contracts in 2024 and 2025, such as the 1 - 9 spread and the 5 - 9 spread [16]. 3.3 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and inventory trends of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda [19][22][24][26]. - **PVC Supply Trend**: It shows the capacity utilization rates of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method, as well as the production, maintenance volume, and profit trends of PVC [30][33]. - **Demand Trend**: It includes the sales volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of PVC, as well as the profit, production, and cost of paste resin. It also involves real - estate and macro - economic indicators such as real - estate investment, construction area, and social financing scale [36][37][39][46][50]. - **Inventory**: It presents the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, and social inventory [52]. - **Ethylene Method - Related**: It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and relevant price spreads [54]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from 2024 to 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [57]. 3.4 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 01 contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to have a narrow - range adjustment next week [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4920 - 4980. The current demand may remain weak, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and export dynamics [8][13]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - The fundamentals are neutral. The main positions are net short, with a reduction in short positions, showing a bearish tendency. The basis indicates that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price, also bearish. The inventory situation is mixed, with a decrease in factory inventory but an increase in social inventory, generally bearish. The disk shows a neutral state with the MA20 moving down and the 01 - contract futures price closing above the MA20 [7][8][10]. - The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand. The main risk points include the implementation of domestic demand policies, export trends, crude oil trends, and the cost support trends of caustic soda and calcium carbide methods [13][14]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides a detailed overview of yesterday's PVC market, including prices, spreads, inventory, and production data for different types of PVC (such as calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based), as well as downstream开工 rates and profit margins [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - The report presents the basis trend, price and volume trends, and spread analysis of the main contracts of PVC futures, showing the historical data and trends of these indicators [17][20][23]. 3.4 PVC Fundamentals 3.4.1 Calcium Carbide - Based Raw Materials - For calcium carbide - based raw materials, the report shows the price, cost - profit, and production data of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda, as well as their historical trends [26][29][31]. 3.4.2 PVC Supply - The supply side shows the capacity utilization rate, production, and maintenance data of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC, as well as the historical trends of these indicators [38][41]. 3.4.3 PVC Demand - The demand side includes data on the sales volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream开工 rates of PVC, as well as real - estate - related data such as investment, construction area, and sales volume, and their historical trends [43][45][54]. 3.4.4 PVC Inventory - The inventory section shows the data of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based factory inventories, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days, as well as their historical trends [60]. 3.4.5 Ethylene - Based PVC - For ethylene - based PVC, the report provides data on the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads, as well as their historical trends [62]. 3.4.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the monthly import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export data of PVC from July 2024 to August 2025, and presents the monthly supply - demand trends [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are bearish, with supply pressure still high and demand recovery weak. The cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term, and the market is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The price of asphalt 2511 is expected to oscillate between 3405 - 3449 [7][8][9] - Bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support [11] - Bearish factors are insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate was 30.501%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises was 509,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 685,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%. Refineries reduced production this week, and supply pressure may decrease next week [7] - **Demand Side**: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 28.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the开工 rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the开工 rate of modified asphalt was 15.8893%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25 percentage points; the开工 rate of road - modified asphalt was 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.83 percentage points; the开工 rate of waterproofing membranes was 33.93%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07 percentage points. Overall, current demand is below the historical average [7] - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 513.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 792.0771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.94%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short - term [8] - **Basis**: On September 18, the spot price in Shandong was 3,520 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 93 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [9] - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 1.225 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.54%; factory inventory was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.74%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 320,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.42%. Social and factory inventories continued to decline, while port inventory continued to increase [9] - **Market**: MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20 [9] - **Main Position**: The net position of the main players was short, and short positions decreased [9] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on yesterday's asphalt market, including futures contract prices, inventory, production, and profit. For example, the price of the 01 - contract decreased by 0.47% compared to the previous value, and the social inventory decreased by 3.54% [16] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt basis in Shandong and East China from 2020 - 2025 [18][19] - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: Displays the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [21][22] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: Illustrates the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 - 2025 [24][25] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: Presents the historical trends of crude oil crack spreads for asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 - 2025 [27][28][29] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: Shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [31][33] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Regional Market Price Trends - It shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [34][35] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: Displays the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [36][37] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: Shows the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 - 2025 [39][40][41] - **Supply Side**: - **Shipment Volume**: Presents the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 - 2025 [42][43] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: Displays the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 - 2025 [44][45] - **Production**: Shows the historical weekly and monthly production of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [47][48] - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: Illustrates the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 - 2025 [51][53] - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: Displays the historical local refinery asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 [54][55] - **开工 Rate**: Shows the historical weekly 开工 rate of asphalt from 2021 - 2025 [57][58] - **Maintenance Loss Estimate**: Presents the historical trend of maintenance loss estimates from 2018 - 2025 [59][60] - **Inventory**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: Displays the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 - 2025 [62][64][65] - **Social and Factory Inventory**: Shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 - 2025 [66][67] - **Factory Inventory - Inventory Ratio**: Presents the historical trend of the factory inventory - inventory ratio from 2018 - 2025 [69][70] - **Import and Export Situation**: - **Export and Import Trends**: Displays the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [72][73] - **Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: Shows the historical trend of the Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 - 2025 [75][76][77] - **Demand Side**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: Displays the historical production of petroleum coke from 2019 - 2025 [78][79] - **Apparent Consumption**: Shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [81][82] - **Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Related Data**: Presents the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025 [84][85][86] - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: Shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 - 2025 [88][89][91] - **Asphalt 开工 Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt 开工 Rate**: Displays the historical 开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [93][94] - **Asphalt 开工 Rate by Use**: Shows the historical 开工 rates of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [96][97] - **Downstream 开工 Situation**: Presents the historical 开工 rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [99][100][102] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Provides a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import and export volume, and inventory data [104][105]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the PVC industry is bearish [11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on PVC is bearish, with positive factors including supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits, while negative factors include a rebound in overall supply pressure, high inventory and slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [13] - The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - The daily view is bearish, with positive factors such as supply restart, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages; negative factors include overall supply pressure rebound, high inventory levels, slow inventory consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [13] - The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [14] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 77.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 327,885 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 134,060 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, with a slight increase in scheduled production [7] 3.2.2 Demand - The overall downstream开工率 was 43.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.899 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile开工率 was 38.39%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe开工率 was 33.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film开工率 was 70.77%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin开工率 was 74.07%, a month - on - month increase of 0.809 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [7] 3.2.3 Cost - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 420.96 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 5.40% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 670.97 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 6.80% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,439.25 yuan/ton, with the profit decreasing by 3.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may be under pressure [8] 3.2.4 Basis - On September 18, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,820 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 103 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [9] 3.2.5 Inventory - Factory inventory was 315,801 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 251,301 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.77%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 64,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.85%. Social inventory was 533,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.2 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95% [9] 3.2.6 Disk - MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20, which is neutral [9] 3.2.7 Main Position - The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [9] 3.2.8 Expectation - The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is weakening. Supply pressure has increased this week, and maintenance is expected to decrease next week, with an expected increase in scheduled production. Overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,894 - 4,953 [9]

Group 1: Daily Views Coking Coal - Fundamental: Supply is slowly recovering but still tight, with some mines still shut down.成材 prices rose slightly, improving market sentiment. Some downstream coke enterprises replenished inventory due to low stock levels, and the auction prices of some coal types increased by 10 - 100 yuan/ton. Coal prices remained stable under downstream demand [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 1150, basis is -83, indicating spot discount to futures [2]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 1890.7 tons, a decrease of 28.1 tons from last week, including 805.8 tons in steel mills, 255.5 tons in ports, and 829.4 tons in independent coke enterprises [2]. - Market: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above it [3]. - Main Position: The main position of coking coal is net short, with short positions increasing [3]. - Expectation: Market sentiment has improved, and downstream procurement has increased. However, due to poor profits, enterprises remain cautious. Coking and steel enterprises mainly purchase on - demand. Short - term coking coal prices are expected to be weakly stable [2]. Coke - Fundamental: Coke enterprises' production is stable, and shipments are smooth. Some coke enterprises' inventory is increasing, but overall inventory is still low. The stable and rising coking coal prices support coke prices [7]. - Basis: Spot price is 1630, basis is -104.5, indicating spot discount to futures [7]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 864.2 tons, a decrease of 17.9 tons from last week, including 609.8 tons in steel mills, 215.1 tons in ports, and 39.3 tons in independent coke enterprises [7]. - Market: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above it [7]. - Main Position: The main position of coke is net short, with short positions increasing [7]. - Expectation: Coke enterprises still have profit margins and high production enthusiasm, with general inventory pressure. As cost support strengthens, market sentiment is boosted. Tangshan's production restrictions reduce the expectation of price cuts by steel mills. Short - term coke prices are expected to be weakly stable [7]. Group 2: Influencing Factors Coking Coal - Bullish: Iron - water production is rising, and supply is difficult to increase [5]. - Bearish: Coking and steel enterprises are slowing down raw coal procurement, and steel prices are weak [5]. Coke - Bullish: Iron - water production and blast furnace operating rates are rising [9]. - Bearish: Steel mills' profit margins are squeezed, and some replenishment demand has been overdrawn [9]. Group 3: Price Information Coking Coal - On September 17 (17:30), the prices of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia at different ports are provided, with some price increases [10]. Coke - On September 17 (17:30), the prices of port metallurgical coke at different ports, including different types and origins, are provided [11]. Group 4: Inventory Information Port Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons from last week [21]. Independent Coke Enterprises' Inventory - Coking coal inventory in independent coke enterprises is 844.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from last week [26]. Steel Mills' Inventory - Coking coal inventory in steel mills is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [31]. Group 5: Other Information - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [44]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to move in a range in the short term. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: There are few maintenance periods for soda ash plants, supply remains at a high level; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and terminal demand is average. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a high level in the same period; bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,235 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,334 yuan/ton, and the basis is -99 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot; bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average; bearish [2]. - **Disk**: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward; bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary - **Bullish Factors**: The peak maintenance period within the year is approaching, and production is expected to decline [3]. - **Bearish Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a high level in the same period; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has subsided [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased by 0.37% to 1,334 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe increased by 0.82% to 1,235 yuan/ton, and the main basis increased by 13.16% to -99 yuan/ton [6]. 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,235 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - alkali method is -96.30 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production method is -92.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - **Operating Rate, Production Capacity and Output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 87.29%. The weekly production of soda ash is 761,100 tons, including 421,700 tons of heavy soda ash, with production at a historical high [17][19]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with actual production of 1 million tons [20]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 103.23% [23]. - **Downstream Demand**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 160,200 tons, and the operating rate is 76.01% and stable; the price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume in production continues a significant downward trend [26][32]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [35]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side's production schedule has increased and is near the historical average, while demand recovery is at a low level and cost support has weakened slightly. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8610 - 8880 [6][7]. - For polysilicon, the short - term production schedule on the supply side will decrease, but it is expected to recover in the medium term. The demand side shows continuous recovery, and cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52580 - 54640 [9]. - The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, while the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon. The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch due to capacity mismatch is difficult to change [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 78,000 tons, a 3.70% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains sluggish. Polysilicon inventory is 219,000 tons (low), silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss state, and components are profitable. Organic silicon inventory is 73,200 tons (high), with a production profit of - 82 yuan/ton, and a comprehensive operating rate of 72.71% (unchanged from the previous week and lower than the historical average). Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 70,800 tons (high), with an import loss of 140 yuan/ton, and the recycled aluminum operating rate is 55.5%, a 0.36% increase from the previous week (low) [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 3237 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - Basis: On September 12, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 255 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 539,000 tons, a 0.37% increase from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 173,950 tons, a 1.84% increase; and the inventory of major ports is 119,000 tons, a 1.71% increase [6]. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closes above MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [7]. - Expectation: The supply - side production schedule has increased and is near the historical average, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased slightly. Industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8610 - 8880 [7]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 31,200 tons, a 3.31% increase from the previous week. The production schedule for September is predicted to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer production was 13.88GW, a 0.72% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was 165,500 tons, a 1.78% decrease. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedule for September is 57.53GW, a 2.73% increase from the previous month. In August, battery cell production was 58.27GW, a 0.13% increase from the previous month. Last week, the inventory of external - sales battery cell factories was 4.62GW, a 40.84% decrease. Currently, production is in a loss state. The production schedule for September is 60.04GW, a 3.03% increase. In August, component production was 49.2GW, a 4.45% increase from the previous month, and the expected production for September is 50.3GW, a 2.23% increase. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease, and the European monthly inventory is 28.1GW, a 5.70% decrease. Currently, component production is profitable [9]. - Cost: The average industry cost of N - type polysilicon is 35,620 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,430 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On September 12, the price of N - type dense material was 50,050 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 2060 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 219,000 tons, a 3.79% increase from the previous week, and it is at a historical low [9]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closes above MA20 [9]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and the long position has decreased [9]. - Expectation: The short - term production schedule on the supply side will decrease, but it is expected to recover in the medium term. The demand side shows continuous recovery, and cost support remains stable. Polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52580 - 54640 [9]. 2. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of different contracts show various changes, with some rising and some falling. For example, the 01 - contract price of non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China is 9095 yuan/ton, a 0.06% increase from the previous value [15]. - Inventory data shows that most inventories, including social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory, have increased to varying degrees [15]. Polysilicon - The prices of various types of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are mostly stable, with only a few showing slight increases or decreases. For example, the daily price of N - type 182mm silicon wafers (130μm) is 1.28 yuan/piece, unchanged from the previous value [17]. - The production and inventory of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also show different trends. For example, the weekly production of silicon wafers is 12.9GW, a 5.74% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is 26.5GW, a 22.06% decrease [17]. 3. Price and Basis Trends - The price and basis trends of industrial silicon and polysilicon are presented through charts, showing historical price changes and the relationship between spot and futures prices [19][23]. 4. Inventory Trends - Industrial silicon inventory includes交割库及港口库存, sample enterprise inventory, and registered warehouse receipts, all of which show certain trends of change over time [26]. - Polysilicon inventory also shows different trends, with the total inventory showing a certain increase [17]. 5. Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - The production and capacity utilization of industrial silicon in different regions, such as Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan, show different trends over time [28][30]. - The monthly production of industrial silicon by specification also shows different trends [29]. 6. Cost Trends - The cost and profit trends of industrial silicon in sample regions, such as Sichuan 421, Yunnan 421, and Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553, are presented through charts [36]. 7. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon show the relationship between production, import, export, consumption, and balance over different time periods [38][41]. - The monthly supply - demand balance table of polysilicon also shows the relationship between supply, import, export, consumption, and balance [66]. 8. Downstream Trends Organic Silicon - The price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products, such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4, are presented [44][46][50]. Aluminum Alloy - The price, supply, inventory, production, and operating rate trends of aluminum alloy, as well as the demand trends in the automotive and wheel - hub industries, are presented [53][56][57]. Polysilicon - The cost, price, inventory, production, and supply - demand balance trends of polysilicon, as well as the trends of its downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, photovoltaic accessories, and component cost - profit, are presented [63][66][69]

Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoints - **Threaded Steel**: The demand shows no sign of improvement, the inventory is rising from a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness remains weak. The downstream real - estate industry is still in a downward cycle. With a positive basis, the price is below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions. Considering the weak real - estate market, cooling future demand, and domestic capacity - reduction plans, a high - level oscillation approach should be adopted [2]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may take effect. With a positive basis, the price is above the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with a decrease in short positions. Given the weakening market supply and demand, blocked exports, and domestic capacity - reduction plans, a high - level oscillation approach should be adopted [7]. 2. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Other Summaries 3.1 Threaded Steel - **Fundamentals**: Negative due to poor demand, rising inventory, and a weak downstream real - estate industry [2]. - **Basis**: Positive with a basis of 93 and a spot price of 3220 [2]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The inventory in 35 major cities is 487.23 million tons, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year [2]. - **Disk**: Negative as the price is below the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is downward [2]. - **Main Position**: Negative with a net short position and an increase in short positions [2]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Positive factors include low production, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations; negative factors are the continuous downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry and weak terminal demand [4]. 3.2 Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Neutral as both supply and demand have weakened, inventory is decreasing, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may take effect [7]. - **Basis**: Positive with a basis of 36 and a spot price of 3400 [7]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The inventory in 33 major cities is 292.44 million tons, decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year [7]. - **Disk**: Neutral as the price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is downward [7]. - **Main Position**: Negative with a net short position and a decrease in short positions [7]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Positive factors include decent demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations; negative factors are the seasonal off - peak of downstream demand and pessimistic expectations [8][9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The view of the report is that the price of live pigs will experience a shock adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen, which will support pig prices; if the price remains weak, a negative cycle may form, and the pig price may rebound at the end of the year, and an inverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract can be considered [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - On September 11, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 428 lots [2]. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs [2]. - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) increased its positions by 234 lots today, with a position of about 76,000 lots. The highest price was 13,370 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,285 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,320 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will increase overall in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen in a shock [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the breeding end, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes that the weight reduction in the breeding end is beneficial to the future market, consumption is expected to gradually improve after the weather turns cool, and the increase in subsequent slaughter volume is limited [3]. Strategy Suggestions - The view is shock adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen, which will support pig prices; if a negative cycle forms, the pig price may rebound at the end of the year, and an inverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract can be considered [4]. Market Overview - The national average live pig slaughter price on September 11 was 13.33 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan or 0.15% from the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 13.52 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan or 0.07% [6]. - Among the futures prices, the 01 contract was 13,730 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or - 0.07%; the 03 contract was 13,015 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 05 contract was 13,520 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or - 0.15%; the 07 contract was 14,285 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.14%; the 09 contract was 13,090 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan or - 0.87%; the 11 contract was 13,320 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.04% [6]. - The main basis in Henan was 200 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 2.56% [6]. Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts, and the price difference between the 01 - 03 contracts [14].