湖北电力现货市场转正式运行，4 月全国天然气表观消费量同比下降 2% 【】【】[Table_Industry] 公用事业—电力天然气周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 7 日 15666646523.tcy 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] 公用事业 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [左前明 Table_Author] 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 李春驰 电力公用联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522070001 联系电话：010-83326723 邮 箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 邢秦浩 电力公用分析师 化工行业： 执业编号：S1500524080001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：xingqinhao@cindasc.com 唐婵玉 电力公用分析师 执业编号：S1500525050001 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECU ...

Core Viewpoint - The energy revolution in China is reshaping the global energy landscape, driven by the dual goals of carbon neutrality and energy security, with significant implications for the power industry and its stakeholders [1]. Policy Breakthroughs - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration have implemented key policies, including the "Basic Rules for Electricity Market Operation," which incorporates capacity pricing and ancillary service fees into the market pricing system [2]. - The establishment of a capacity pricing mechanism is seen as a critical driver for electricity market reform, with expectations that by 2025, market-based electricity trading will exceed 60% and green electricity trading will reach 1.2 trillion kilowatt-hours, equivalent to double Germany's annual electricity consumption [2]. Industry Restructuring - A major power giant is emerging with a 39% market share, surpassing the combined installed capacity of the US and EU by 1.2 times, and accounting for one-quarter of the national electricity consumption [5]. - The company has achieved breakthroughs in flexible direct current transmission technology and is expected to undertake 70% of the ultra-high voltage projects during the 14th Five-Year Plan [6]. - Significant capital movements are noted, with Morgan Stanley increasing its holdings for three consecutive quarters, and a leading insurance fund becoming the third-largest shareholder, while original shareholders have seen their holdings increase eightfold in value over three years [7]. New Energy Landscape - The share of wind and solar power installations has surpassed 40%, leading to the emergence of "energy storage system integrators" due to increasing challenges in energy consumption [8]. - The Southern Power Grid has initiated a significant investment in digital grid technology, with smart inspection robots and AI reducing fault location times from two hours to eight minutes [8]. - Virtual power plant trials in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have shown significant progress, aggregating over 5 million kilowatts of adjustable load, equivalent to the regulation capacity of a large thermal power plant [8]. Future Outlook - The energy revolution is expected to culminate in the creation of an "energy internet," where every building acts as a micro power plant and every electric vehicle serves as a mobile energy storage unit [10]. - Companies that successfully undergo digital transformation and master core technologies will dominate the trillion-dollar market, as today's installed capacity translates into tomorrow's pricing power [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of the commercial energy storage industry in China, emphasizing the shift from policy-driven growth to market-driven value creation, particularly following the implementation of new pricing policies in June 2023 [2][3][17]. Group 1: Market Changes and New Policies - The new pricing policy in Jiangsu, effective June 1, 2023, has narrowed the peak-valley price difference, impacting traditional arbitrage strategies in commercial energy storage [2][9]. - The cancellation of mandatory energy storage requirements marks a transition to a market-driven approach, where investment focus shifts to long-term returns rather than short-term subsidies [3][9]. - The new policies are expected to trigger a wave of reforms in commercial time-of-use pricing across the country, leading to a more competitive landscape [2][9]. Group 2: Strategic Shifts in the Industry - Companies are now competing on solutions, services, and operational capabilities rather than just hardware, as the market becomes saturated with similar products [2][7]. - Trina Solar has adopted a "software value-added strategy" to escape the price war, enhancing project investment returns and risk resilience through its integrated solutions [8][20]. - The company plans to launch the "Light Storage Cloud" platform, which utilizes AI algorithms to optimize energy usage and improve investment returns by 5%-8% [8][14]. Group 3: Financial Implications and Market Reactions - The new pricing policy in Jiangsu has led to a significant drop in investment returns for energy storage projects, with returns falling below investment thresholds [9][14]. - The article highlights that the integration of light storage can significantly enhance the economic benefits of distributed photovoltaic projects, with returns improving from 10.97% to 13.55% [14]. - The shift to a four-hour long-duration storage system is anticipated as the market adapts to the new pricing environment, indicating a move towards more flexible energy storage solutions [9][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Competitive Landscape - The article suggests that companies with comprehensive lifecycle service capabilities will likely dominate the market, as system costs stabilize around 1 yuan/Wh while software and service premiums exceed 20% [8][20]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with a focus on operational excellence and the ability to respond quickly to market changes becoming critical for success [17][18]. - The transition to a market-driven model is expected to reshape the competitive dynamics of the energy storage industry, emphasizing the importance of strategic adaptability [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The transition to a market-oriented pricing mechanism for renewable energy in China is expected to enhance market efficiency and promote a low-carbon transformation in the energy sector [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Changes and Growth - From June 1, 2024, all renewable energy projects' grid-connected electricity will enter the electricity market, with prices determined through market transactions [1]. - In 2024, China's total electricity generation is projected to exceed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours, with wind and solar power generation significantly increasing [2]. - Wind power generation is expected to rise from 885.87 billion kilowatt-hours in 2023 to 997.04 billion kilowatt-hours in 2024, while solar power generation is anticipated to surge from 584.15 billion kilowatt-hours to 839.04 billion kilowatt-hours [2]. Group 2: Market Structure and Competition - The number of registered trading participants has increased from 42,000 in 2016 to 816,000 in 2024, indicating a significant rise in market participation [3]. - The proportion of market-based electricity transactions has grown from 17% in 2016 to 63% in 2024, with cross-regional transactions reaching 1.4 trillion kilowatt-hours [3]. - The new regulations implemented on June 1 are seen as a critical step in the reform of the electricity market, allowing renewable energy to participate in market competition [3][4]. Group 3: Pricing Mechanism and Investment Logic - A flexible pricing mechanism is being established to match the growing electricity demand with supply, enhancing the system's adjustment capabilities [4][5]. - The rapid advancement of marketization is reshaping the investment logic in the energy sector, with power generation companies no longer relying on government subsidies [5][6]. - The market now includes various trading methods, such as long-term contracts and spot trading, which help restore the commodity nature of electricity [7]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - The transition to market-based pricing introduces uncertainties for renewable energy pricing, with companies needing to adapt to competitive pressures [8]. - The marketization of electricity pricing is expected to drive companies to innovate in technology, operational models, and trading strategies [9]. - The ongoing reforms aim to create a clean, low-carbon, and efficient modern energy system, with a focus on optimizing resource allocation [10].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **electric power industry**, specifically focusing on the **integration of renewable energy** into the market and its implications for power trading and forecasting services [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Renewable Energy Market Entry**: The entry of renewable energy into the power market is expected to be a significant change starting June 11, 2025, as mandated by the National Development and Reform Commission. This is viewed as a favorable time for market reform due to current supply conditions [2]. - **Investment Logic Shift**: With the entry of renewable energy, the pace of new installations is anticipated to slow down, shifting investment focus from new installations to the operation of existing capacity. Opportunities may arise in niche markets and barriers in power market operations [3]. - **Power Forecasting Importance**: The importance of power forecasting will transition from being policy-driven to value-driven, expanding the customer base to include various market participants. Higher forecasting accuracy is expected to enhance market share for leading suppliers [4]. - **Electricity Price Forecasting**: Electricity price forecasting will rely on supply-demand balance, with power forecasting services expanding from individual power plants to provincial levels, catering to a broader range of market participants [5]. - **Market Structure Changes**: The structure of trading is expected to evolve, with a significant increase in short-term trading as the market becomes more flexible and responsive to actual supply and demand [7]. Additional Important Content - **Market Volatility**: The entry of renewable energy is likely to increase price volatility in the electricity market, which will drive demand for regional power forecasting products [8]. - **Future Market Growth**: The power forecasting market is projected to grow significantly, with demand potentially reaching ten times the size of 2024 by 2030. This growth is driven by both centralized and distributed generation policies [9][10]. - **Current Market Landscape**: The current power forecasting market is valued at around 1 billion, with a stable competitive landscape dominated by a few key players. Technological advancements are being made to improve forecasting accuracy [11]. - **Data Advantages**: Power forecasting service providers have advantages in data acquisition, particularly through local data collection, which enhances forecasting precision [12]. - **AI in Meteorology**: The application of AI in meteorology is expected to improve weather forecasting accuracy, which is crucial for power forecasting in the context of renewable energy integration [13]. - **Role of SMEs**: Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are becoming increasingly active in the market due to favorable pricing, and they are expected to transition from simple electricity purchasing to more integrated service offerings [14]. - **Investment Directions**: Key investment areas include the expansion of the renewable power forecasting niche market and the operational aspects involving SMEs and distributed energy resources [19][20]. - **Risks in Market Promotion**: Potential risks include policy implementation delays, increased competition, and uncertainties regarding future company performance, which could affect the overall development pace of the market [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Positive" for the utility sector, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a projected 2.4% year-on-year growth in global LNG trade volume for 2024, reaching 411.24 million tons, connecting 22 export markets and 48 import markets [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing market reforms in the electricity sector, which are expected to lead to improved profitability and value reassessment for power companies [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of May 30, the utility sector declined by 0.2%, underperforming the broader market, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.1% [12]. - The electricity sector specifically saw a decrease of 0.15%, while the gas sector fell by 0.44% [15]. Electricity Industry Data Tracking - The report notes that the Qinhuangdao port's coal price (Q5500) remained stable at 613 CNY/ton as of May 30, while the coal inventory at the port decreased by 550,000 tons to 6.75 million tons [23][30]. - The average daily coal consumption in inland provinces dropped by 357,000 tons to 2.806 million tons, with available days increasing to 29.8 days [32]. Natural Gas Industry Data Tracking - The report indicates that the LNG ex-factory price index in Shanghai was 4,419 CNY/ton as of May 30, reflecting a 1.01% year-on-year increase but a 1.12% week-on-week decrease [58]. - The report also highlights that the EU's natural gas supply for week 21 of 2025 was 5.82 billion cubic meters, a 3.1% year-on-year increase [61]. Key Industry News - The report discusses the release of the "136 Document" by the Inner Mongolia Development and Reform Commission, which outlines a market-driven pricing mechanism for renewable energy [5]. - The report mentions that the EU's natural gas consumption for the first 20 weeks of 2025 is estimated at 158.81 billion cubic meters, a 9.2% year-on-year increase [5]. Investment Recommendations - For the electricity sector, the report suggests focusing on leading coal power companies such as Guodian Power and Huaneng International, as well as regional leaders in tight supply areas [5]. - In the natural gas sector, companies with low-cost long-term gas sources and receiving station assets are recommended for potential profit growth [5].

| 定价机制类型 | 适用对象 | | --- | --- | | 成本加成定价("一厂一价") | 2014年2月前投产的存量水电站 | | 跨区域落地倒推电价 | 跨省 / 区送电的新建水电站 (2014年2月后投产) | | 省内标杆电价 | 省内消纳的新建水电站 (2014年2月后投产) | | 市场化定价 | 全部水电(主要是超计划电量) | | | 2 雪球:聚焦企业内在价值 | 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：聚焦企业内在价值 来源：雪球 净利润=上网电量x（平均上网电价-度电完全成本） 所以，关于水电，就先从定价机制开始谈起吧！ 中国水电定价机制经历了从政府定价向市场化方向的渐进式改革，目前形成"计划与市场双轨并 行"的多元体系。目前主要包括以下四类： 下面是定价机制以及对应的相关政策： | 阶段 | 政策 | 关键改革内容 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2001 | 规范电价管理有关问题 | 明确按经营期核定水电商平均上网电价 | | 2014 | 完善水电上网电价形成机制 | 新投产电站执行跨区倒推价或省内标杆价 ...

Core Insights - China's pumped storage capacity has ranked first in the world for nine consecutive years, with Japan and the United States following in second and third place respectively [1] - The rapid growth of renewable energy sources like wind and solar has led to significant decarbonization in the power system, but it also presents new technical challenges that require advanced solutions like pumped storage [1] - The development of pumped storage is crucial for supporting the transition to a new power system and achieving high-quality growth in the sector [1] Group 1: Industry Development - As of the end of 2024, China's total installed capacity of pumped storage power stations is expected to reach 58.69 million kilowatts, with the East China region having the largest capacity [1] - The total approved and under-construction capacity of pumped storage power stations nationwide is approximately 200 million kilowatts [1] - The report indicates that there are about 160 million kilowatts of potential pumped storage sites across the country, considering various geographical and technical factors [2] Group 2: Market Mechanisms - The current two-part pricing policy for pumped storage has positively impacted investment returns and industry growth, but a gradual transition to market-based pricing is necessary [3] - The establishment of a "capacity benchmark price + difference contract" mechanism based on resource zoning is suggested to facilitate the transition to market pricing [3] - The development of a market-oriented operation mechanism for pumped storage is a key focus, especially in regions like Guangdong and Shandong that are piloting market transactions [2] Group 3: Technological and Regulatory Recommendations - Continuous technological innovation and investment in R&D are essential for enhancing the competitiveness of pumped storage in the new power system [3] - The implementation of a regular scheduling mechanism for optimizing provincial layouts from 2024 to 2028 is recommended to ensure orderly development [2] - The Energy Law emphasizes the need for reasonable planning and orderly development of pumped storage stations to meet future demands [2]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the "Basic Rules for the Electricity Auxiliary Service Market" marks a significant step in China's electricity market reform, transitioning from a planned compensation model to a market-driven approach, thereby enhancing the stability and reliability of the power supply system [1][4][5]. Group 1: Importance of Auxiliary Services - Electricity auxiliary services are crucial for maintaining the stability and safety of the power system, providing essential functions such as peak shaving, frequency regulation, and backup services [2][3]. - The increasing share of renewable energy sources necessitates a robust auxiliary service framework to manage fluctuations and ensure reliable electricity supply [3][4]. Group 2: Market Development and Structure - The auxiliary service market in China has evolved through three stages: free service before 2006, planned compensation from 2006 to 2014, and partial marketization since 2014 [5]. - As of May 2, 2023, 16 provinces have established peak shaving markets, 15 have set up frequency regulation markets, and 2 have initiated ramping markets, although there is a lack of uniform pricing mechanisms across regions [5][6]. Group 3: New Market Participants - The new rules incorporate various entities such as energy storage companies, virtual power plants, and smart microgrids as market participants, promoting a more diverse and competitive market landscape [6][7]. - The rules aim to unify provincial regulations, facilitating better resource allocation and market participation across different regions [6][7]. Group 4: Market Opportunities and Economic Impact - The new regulations are expected to unlock significant market potential, with estimates suggesting that the scale of new participants in the auxiliary service market could exceed 30 billion yuan this year [7][9]. - Traditional thermal power plants are shifting their roles from mere electricity suppliers to system regulators, enhancing their revenue streams through participation in auxiliary services [7][8]. Group 5: Integration with Electric Vehicles - The rise of electric vehicles presents new opportunities for the auxiliary service market, as demonstrated by large-scale vehicle-grid interactions that help reduce peak load differences and enhance grid stability [9]. - The integration of auxiliary services with the electricity spot market is anticipated to create a comprehensive electricity market system, further optimizing resource allocation and reducing costs [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - In April, the total electricity consumption increased by 4.7% year-on-year, reaching 772.1 billion kWh. The industrial natural gas output for large-scale industries grew by 8.1% year-on-year, totaling 21.5 billion cubic meters [4][3] - The utility sector outperformed the market, with a 0.2% increase as of May 23, while the broader market (CSI 300) decreased by 0.2% [3][11] - The report highlights a potential improvement in profitability and value reassessment for the electricity sector due to previous supply-demand tensions [4] Electricity Industry Data Tracking - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (Q5500) was 613 CNY/ton, down 5 CNY/ton week-on-week. The inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 7.48 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons week-on-week [3][21][28] - The daily coal consumption for inland provinces was 3.163 million tons, an increase of 60,000 tons/day week-on-week [30] - The average price in the Guangdong electricity market was 307.94 CNY/MWh, down 16.03% week-on-week [48] Natural Gas Industry Data Tracking - The LNG ex-factory price index in Shanghai was 4,469 CNY/ton, a year-on-year increase of 3.09% but a week-on-week decrease of 0.67% [54] - The average price of LNG imports was 12.54 USD/MMBtu, a year-on-year increase of 9.23% [54] - The EU natural gas supply for week 20 of 2025 was 6.13 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [4] Investment Recommendations - For the electricity sector, it is suggested to focus on leading coal-fired power companies such as Guodian Power, Huaneng International, and Huadian International, as well as regional leaders in tight supply areas [4] - In the natural gas sector, companies with low-cost long-term gas sources and receiving station assets are recommended, such as Xin'ao Co. and Guanghui Energy [4]