Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's proposal to relax capital requirements for large banks is expected to impact the pricing logic of USD Coin funding rates in the cryptocurrency market, indicating a shift in market dynamics and liquidity [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve has submitted a proposal to reduce the overall capital increase requirement for large banks from 9% to a range of 3%–7%, which may lead to a decrease in capital for banks with large trading portfolios [1]. - This policy easing is aimed at relieving capital pressure on financial institutions, thereby releasing market liquidity [3]. Group 2: Impact on USD Coin Funding Rates - The USD Coin funding rate, a key indicator connecting the cryptocurrency market with traditional financial rates, is influenced by premium indices and interest rate components, significantly affected by USD financing costs [3]. - Historical data shows that a previous proposal for a 19% capital increase led to a rise in USD financing costs, maintaining a positive premium for USD Coin funding rates above 0.012% for three consecutive weeks [3]. - The new expectation of a 3%–7% capital increase has narrowed the anticipated interest rate differential between the cryptocurrency and traditional financial markets, suppressing the upward potential of funding rates [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Trading Platforms - Following the announcement of the policy signal, the USD Coin funding rate on major platforms has slightly decreased from the usual 0.01% per 8 hours, with a noticeable increase in arbitrage capital involvement, indicating market anticipation of rate fluctuations [3][5]. - XBIT, a decentralized trading platform, has demonstrated strong adaptability to market volatility due to its advanced risk control systems, which have kept user liquidation rates significantly below the industry average during recent market fluctuations [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategies and Opportunities - The expected volatility in USD Coin funding rates due to the Federal Reserve's policy easing creates diverse trading opportunities for investors, with risk control and tool adaptability being crucial factors [7]. - Short-term strategies such as rate arbitrage are considered low-risk, where investors can hold USDC while opening equivalent perpetual contract short positions to hedge against market fluctuations [7]. - Long-term strategies should align with the Federal Reserve's policy implementation timeline, with analysts suggesting that if the final capital increase is between 3%–5%, the long-term funding rate may stabilize around 0.008%–0.01% [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in international gold prices, which fell over 6% to below $4100 per ounce, marks the largest single-day drop in 12 years, surprising many investors who had recently entered the market [1] Price Fluctuations and Historical Context - Gold prices had previously reached a historical peak of $4390 per ounce on October 17, with expectations of breaking the $4400 mark shortly thereafter [1] - Over the past 20 years, gold prices have experienced four significant declines, with drops of 22%, 20%, 45%, and 33% [1] - In 2022, gold prices fluctuated significantly, with a peak near $2078 per ounce before falling to $1618 per ounce, a decline of 22%, primarily due to the Federal Reserve's tightening monetary policy and a strengthening dollar [3][5] - The decline in 2020 was attributed to the Federal Reserve's actions during the COVID-19 pandemic, where initial rate cuts and quantitative easing led to a peak in gold prices, followed by a 20% drop as expectations of further easing diminished [5] - The most prolonged decline occurred from 2011 to 2015, where gold prices fell from a peak of $1920.30 to around $1000, a 45% drop, driven by reduced fiscal deficits and the cessation of quantitative easing [7] Recent Market Dynamics - On October 15, gold prices briefly surpassed $4180 per ounce before experiencing a sharp decline of nearly $90, indicating profit-taking among investors [9] - Domestic gold jewelry prices also saw significant reductions, with notable drops in prices per gram across various brands [9] - Year-to-date, international gold prices have increased by over 30%, a notable rise that is not commonly seen historically [9] - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy are shifting, with potential adjustments if U.S. economic data remains strong [9][11] Investment Considerations - Historical trends suggest that gold prices are influenced by several key factors, including prior price increases, liquidity conditions, fiscal policy changes, and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [7][11] - While gold is viewed as a valuable asset for diversification, investors are advised to remain cautious, especially after significant price increases, to avoid being trapped at market peaks [11]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a significant drop followed by a period of high volatility, with COMEX gold futures reaching a low of $4021 before recovering to close at $4116.60 per ounce, marking a 0.18% increase [1] - The global gold market saw an average daily trading volume of approximately $388 billion in September, representing a month-on-month increase of 34%, with off-exchange trading also strong at an average of $191 billion, up 12% from the previous month [1] Group 2 - Citic Futures analysis suggests that precious metals may enter a monthly adjustment phase, with key factors to monitor including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, personnel changes, and geopolitical and trade developments [2] - The market is particularly focused on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction, with three rate cuts already priced in for this year, while expectations for cuts in 2026 have yet to materialize, making the December meeting a critical point of interest [2] - The potential impact of the newly elected Japanese Prime Minister, who has right-wing tendencies, is also a factor to consider in the precious metals market [2] - The long-term bullish trend for precious metals remains intact, with the contraction of dollar credit being a core foundation, indicating a continued upward trend in the value of physical currency [2]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, with COMEX gold futures reaching a low of $4021 before rebounding to close at $4116.60, marking a 0.18% increase [1] - The global gold market saw an average daily trading volume of approximately $388 billion in September, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 34% [1] - Off-exchange trading also strengthened, achieving an average daily volume of $191 billion, up 12% month-on-month, significantly higher than the levels seen in 2024 [1] Group 2 - Citic Futures indicated that precious metals may enter a monthly adjustment phase, with key focus on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, personnel changes, and geopolitical trade developments [2] - The market has already priced in three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, but expectations for cuts in 2026 have not yet been reflected [2] - The potential impact of the newly elected Japanese Prime Minister, who has right-wing tendencies, is also a point of concern for the precious metals market [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is still in the early stage of the easing cycle, and the most important driver - the new Fed Chair nominee has not been announced. It is recommended to maintain a long - term view on precious metals. Wait for the price to stabilize and then enter long positions on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 928 - 982 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 10962 - 11690 yuan/kilogram [4]. - Precious metal prices have found short - term support after a significant decline. The macro environment still has positive factors for gold and silver prices, but from the perspective of positions, they still need to consolidate. Overseas risk aversion has increased, leading to a short - term stabilization of gold prices. Tomorrow evening, the US September CPI data will be released. The US Treasury Secretary expects the CPI to decline next month [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On October 23, 2025, Shanghai Gold fell 1.56% to 934.72 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver rose 0.04% to 11331.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold was reported at 4101.80 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver was reported at 48.03 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.02%, and the US dollar index was 98.92 [2]. - Comparing this week with last week, SHFE Gold was at 994.06 yuan/gram, up 5.87%; SHFE Silver was at 11805.00 yuan/kilogram, up 2.36%. COMEX Gold was at 4138.50 US dollars/ounce, down 0.51%; COMEX Silver was at 48.16 US dollars/ounce, down 4.34% [5]. 3.2 Position and Inventory - The positions of gold and silver ETFs were relatively weak due to the impact of price shocks. The SLV Silver ETF position decreased by 79.03 tons to 15597.61 tons yesterday, and the SPDR Gold ETF total position decreased by 6.29 tons to 1052.37 tons [3]. - For COMEX Gold on October 22, 2025, the position (CFTC latest reporting period: weekly) increased by 2.43% to 52.88 million lots, and the inventory decreased by 0.14% to 1212 tons. For COMEX Silver, the position increased by 1.75% to 16.58 million lots, and the inventory decreased by 0.56% to 15584 tons [8]. 3.3 Market News - US President Trump expressed disappointment with ending the negotiation process in Ukraine. The US government announced a significant increase in sanctions against Russia and cancelled the meeting between Trump and Putin, leading to an increase in overseas risk aversion [2]. - The US Treasury Secretary, Baysent, said that energy prices have declined, and he expects the CPI to decline next month. He also mentioned that "the rise in gold prices is helpful to us" [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Precious metals continued the adjustment trend on Wednesday, with the decline narrowing compared to the previous day. They may enter a monthly - level adjustment, but the long - term bull market trend remains intact. The key factors to watch are Fed's monetary policy, personnel changes, geopolitical and trade changes [1][3] Group 3: Summary of Key Information from Different Sections 1. Key News - Trump said that China and the US would reach a trade agreement at the APEC summit next week, but the two heads of state may not meet. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that they maintain close communication, and no specific information is available [2] - New Japanese Prime Minister Kaochi Sanae is preparing an economic stimulus plan worth over 13.9 trillion yen (about $92.19 billion) to help families cope with inflation. The plan focuses on anti - inflation measures, investment in growth industries, and national security. The specific scale is being finalized and may be announced next month [2] - UK's September CPI increased 3.8% year - on - year (expected 4%, previous 3.8%), and was flat month - on - month (ending the growth since February 2025, expected 0.2%, previous 0.3%). Core CPI increased 3.5% year - on - year (expected 3.7%, previous 3.6%) [2] 2. Price Logic - Precious metals continued the adjustment on Wednesday, with better performance during the Asian trading session. The price difference between domestic and overseas markets continued to repair upwards. Future focuses include Fed's monetary policy (the expectation of three rate cuts this year is well - priced, but 2026's rate - cut expectation is not), personnel changes (new Fed chair nomination may be confirmed after Thanksgiving), and the potential impact of Kaochi Sanae's right - wing tendency. In the long run, the bull market remains due to the shrinking of the US dollar's credit [3] 3. Outlook - This week, the price range of spot London gold is expected to be between $3900 and $4400 per ounce, and that of spot London silver is expected to be between $46 and $55 per ounce [3] 4. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index is not detailed. The special indices include the commodity index (2234.80, - 0.20%), the commodity 20 index (2531.94, - 0.48%), and the industrial products index (2204.41, + 0.87%) [42] 5. Sector Index - For the precious metals index on October 22, 2025, the daily decline was 3.94%, the decline in the past 5 days was 2.56%, the increase in the past month was 12.63%, and the increase since the beginning of the year was 50.14% [44]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices, attributed to the IMF and World Bank meetings, signals a potential shift in market sentiment regarding U.S. economic growth and monetary policy [2][3][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold experienced a significant 5.7% drop, marking its largest percentage decline since June 2013, following a rapid increase from $3,000 to $4,000 per ounce within two months [2][4]. - The recent rally in gold prices, which saw a 60% increase over the year, was deemed unsustainable, leading to an expected correction [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Influences - The annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank likely influenced delegates to revise their outlook on U.S. economic growth, which in turn affected the investment case for gold [3][5]. - Factors such as geopolitical uncertainty and fears of currency debasement were considered outdated and not currently driving gold prices, with the state of the U.S. economy being the primary influence [4][5]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Market commentators noted that the strengthening U.S. dollar and high gold prices in both nominal and inflation-adjusted terms contributed to the recent pullback [6][7]. - The decline in gold prices was also interpreted as a result of market mechanics, where profit-taking occurred after a period of euphoria and overextended positions were unwound [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices, which saw a significant drop of 5.7% on the New York Commodity Exchange, is attributed to changing expectations regarding the U.S. economy following the IMF meeting, leading to a reassessment of the factors supporting gold investments [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement and Market Analysis - Gold prices surged from $3000 to $4000 per ounce in less than two months, with an overall increase of over 60% this year, making a correction inevitable [1]. - The 5.7% drop in December gold futures represents the largest single-day percentage decline since June 20, 2013 [1]. - The IMF meeting in Washington likely led participants to raise their expectations for U.S. economic growth, which removed a key support for recent gold investment logic [1][2]. Group 2: Diverging Opinions on Price Drivers - Robin Brooks from Brookings Institution argues that the main driver of recent gold price movements is the state of the U.S. economy and the potential for recession, which influences Federal Reserve monetary policy [1][2]. - Carsten Stork from Stratcom Capital suggests that the gold price drop is a mechanical adjustment following market exuberance, driven by over-leveraged positions and algorithmic trading [2]. - Other analysts, such as Peter Perkins from MRB Partners, indicate that the strengthening dollar is a contributing factor, asserting that gold prices are historically high and overvalued relative to stock markets, money supply, and GDP [2].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Barr emphasizes the need for caution in monetary policy adjustments amid persistent inflation and a cooling job market, adding uncertainty to expectations of consecutive rate cuts [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Stance - Barr supports the Fed's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points in September but clarifies that this does not imply a series of continuous rate cuts [3]. - He highlights ongoing concerns about inflation, citing that it may not return to the 2% target until the end of 2027, which he considers a long wait for consumers [3][6]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The latest data shows that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August, with the core index reaching 2.9% [6]. - Barr anticipates that the core PCE price index will remain above 3% by the end of the year, indicating a prolonged path to achieving the inflation target [6]. Group 3: Labor Market Conditions - The labor market has shown signs of cooling, with job creation significantly slowing since May, although the unemployment rate remains at 4.3% as of August [6][9]. Group 4: Tariff Policy Impact - Barr expresses skepticism about the impact of tariff policies on inflation, noting that the effective tariff rate has risen significantly, reaching approximately 11% in August, which may lead businesses to pass costs onto consumers [6]. Group 5: Internal Policy Discrepancies - Barr's cautious stance contrasts with other Fed officials, such as New York Fed President Williams, who supports further policy easing, and newly appointed Governor Stephen Milan, who advocates for more aggressive rate cuts [9].

Group 1 - Core viewpoint: The continuous decline in oil prices may lead to a drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to around 3.75%, reflecting the complex interplay between macroeconomic indicators [1] Group 2 - Oil price decline: International oil prices have been on a downward trend, with WTI crude oil prices falling from approximately $80 per barrel in January to below $58, nearing levels seen during the COVID-19 pandemic [2] - Factors influencing oil prices: The drop in oil prices is primarily driven by an oversupply of global crude oil and widespread concerns about slowing global economic growth [2] Group 3 - Impact of oil prices on bond yields: Lower energy costs typically ease inflationary pressures, which are crucial for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. A sustained decrease in inflation could enhance expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to rising bond prices and falling yields [4] - Recent bond market response: Since October, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has decreased by approximately 18 basis points, reflecting both expectations for future rate cuts and concerns about the stability of parts of the U.S. banking system [4] Group 4 - Unusual market phenomenon: A rare occurrence of simultaneous increases in both U.S. stock and bond prices suggests that investors anticipate a "Goldilocks" scenario, where economic growth slows enough to curb inflation without triggering a recession [5] Group 5 - Market focus: The upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting and the release of the September core CPI data are critical, with economists predicting a month-over-month increase of 0.3%, consistent with August [6] Group 6 - Analyst perspective on bond market: Even with ongoing economic growth, there remains potential for further increases in the bond market. Predictions indicate that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield could drop to the 3.60%-3.70% range, levels briefly reached last year [7] Group 7 - Dual impact of falling oil prices: The decline in oil prices has a dual effect on the economy; it lowers energy costs, enhancing consumer purchasing power and stimulating demand, while also indicating a potential cooling of global economic activity [8]