宏观点评 核心结论：凯文·沃什获得提名属于超预期的结果，直至本次提名宣布 前一天，沃什和里德尔的概率仍相差不大。政策主张看，沃什主张缩表 和降息并行，比现任主席鲍威尔更偏鸽派、但比此前的热门人选哈塞 特更偏鹰派。沃什的提名后续仍需要参议院的确认，但由于鲍威尔受 到司法调查一事引发诸多共和党参议员不满，参议院确认进程可能不 会很顺畅。沃什提名前后，市场对美联储降息的预期变化不大，目前市 场仍预期下次降息在 6 月、全年降息 2 次，这可能是由于沃什的政策 立场相对中性且更加"灵活"。市场影响方面，短期看，预计沃什的提 名将利空美股和黄金，并推升美元和美债收益率，尤其是黄金，目前做 多较为拥挤且估值已处于高位，阶段性回调压力较大；中长期看，沃什 能否保持政策独立性仍是影响市场的核心变量，需持续关注。 1、沃什的背景资料及政策主张？ >背景资料：凯文·沃什 1970 年 4 月 13 日生于美国纽约州奥尔巴尼， 共和党籍，毕业于斯坦福大学（文学学士）和哈佛大学（法学博士）， 曾担任过摩根士丹利高管、小布什总统经济政策特别助理兼国家经济 委员会执行秘书、美联储理事，现任胡佛研究所访问学者、斯坦福商学 院讲师、国会预算 ...

美联储本周三决定暂停近期连续降息的步伐，将关键利率维持在百分之三点五至三点七五区间。这一决定符合市场普遍预期，标志着此前连续三次的降息周 期暂时中止。分析认为，此举反映了美联储面对复杂经济图景时，正转向更具耐心的观望立场。 美国联邦公开市场委在会后声明中调整了对经济的描述，指出美国经济活动正持续稳健扩张，同时就业增长保持温和，失业率呈现企稳迹象。值得注意的 是，声明中删去了先前关于劳动力市场风险高于通胀风险的措辞，这被解读为美联储官员们认为其促进充分就业与维持物价稳定的双重目标正趋于更佳平 衡，为当前按兵不动的决策提供了依据。 尽管利率决议获得通过，但美联储内部仍存分歧。两位理事反对维持利率不变，主张应继续降息二十五个基点。美联储正处在一个过渡时期，其现任美联储 主席主持会议的次数已屈指可数，漫长的任期即将落幕。在此期间，美联储历经了包括全球疫情在内的多重挑战，其运作的独立性也持续成为外界关注的焦 点。 当前美国经济呈现冷暖交织的局面。一方面，经济增长表现强劲，多项数据显示去年末季度经济动能充沛。另一方面，美国劳动力市场的招聘步伐有所放 缓，但裁员规模整体可控，申请失业救济人数保持在较低水平。最令政策制定者棘 ...

北京时间2026年1月31日凌晨，全球贵金属市场迎来史诗级震荡，国际现货黄金价格遭遇恐慌性抛售，单日跌幅创下1980年以来的历史峰值，成为近40年来 最剧烈的一次单日下跌，白银市场同步上演"崩盘式"下跌，引发全球金融市场连锁反应。 Wind数据显示，此次黄金暴跌始于1月30日下午，美盘时段抛售情绪持续升温，至31日凌晨达到顶峰。现货黄金价格盘中一度暴跌12.92%，接连跌破5400美 元、5300美元至4700美元多道关键关口，最低触及4682美元/盎司，单日波幅接近700美元，创下历史罕见纪录。截至当日收盘，现货黄金报4880.03美元/盎 司，跌幅收窄至9.25%，回吐本周全部涨幅，彻底终结了此前连续多日的上涨势头。COMEX黄金期货同步承压，周五下跌8.88%，报4846.20美元/盎司，尽 管1月份累计涨幅仍达13.38%，但此次暴跌已成为自去年10月以来对涨势最严重的冲击。 与黄金同步承压的还有白银市场，现货白银价格盘中一度暴跌35.89%，最低下探至74.28美元/盎司，创下历史最大日内跌幅，截至收盘，跌幅收窄至 26.42%，报85.259美元/盎司，单日市值蒸发近三成。 此次黄金40年来最大单 ...

2026年1月30日晚，对于众多贵金属及其衍生品投资者来说，注定是难眠的一夜：在经历了数日的历史性上涨之后，黄金和白银突然遭遇了本轮 涨势中最剧烈的单日下跌——这对火热的贵金属市场来说无疑是一记当头棒喝。 自1月初以来，黄金价格从4000美元附近一度攀升至历史高位5626.80美元/盎司，月度涨幅超三成。白银更是从月初的70美元/盎司左右一度攀升 至120美元/盎司，累计涨幅高达60%以上。 本周，这场上涨行情进入"白热阶段"：受地缘政治紧张局势、降息预期以及大量资金流入贵金属ETF等因素推高，金银价格呈直线拉升态势，短 短三个交易日涨幅惊人。 现货白银过去一个月走势 在这一背景下，贵金属市场已经积累了大量短期获利盘，一场"跳水"运动似乎已经在蓄力之中。 而引发跳水行情的"哨声"，是一则"特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席"的利空消息。 J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable Asset Management外汇策略师Claudio Wewel指出，由于新任主席人选偏向鹰派货币政策，这显然打破了市场此前预 期，导致美元指数大幅走强，以美元计价的金银同步走弱，形成 "美元强、金银弱" 的 ...

Economic Overview - Producer prices increased by 3% year-over-year in December, indicating stronger inflation than anticipated [1] - The Federal Reserve's inflation forecasts have been criticized for being inaccurate, contributing to the current inflationary environment [2][3] Federal Reserve Leadership - President Trump has nominated Kevin Worsh as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, which has raised concerns about the Fed's ability to manage inflation effectively [2][4] - The current administration aims to ensure a smooth confirmation process for Worsh despite some Republican pushback regarding previous Fed actions [9] Interest Rates and Economic Growth - The administration believes that the Fed has been "behind the curve" in addressing inflation and that there is potential for significant economic growth driven by supply-side factors, particularly from advancements in AI [10][11] - There is a belief that interest rates could potentially be lowered to 1% due to the positive impact of AI on productivity and GDP growth [13] Job Market and AI Impact - While AI is expected to cause job dislocations, it is also anticipated to increase overall incomes and GDP, leading to new job opportunities for displaced workers [15][16] - The current unemployment rate remains low, suggesting that the job market is resilient despite changes brought about by AI [16] Inflation Trends - Recent increases in producer prices, particularly in commodities like gold and copper, have raised questions about the sustainability of inflation levels [17][18] - Despite the recent producer price increases, the overall inflation numbers in the U.S. are still close to target, allowing room for potential interest rate cuts by the Fed [18][19]

北京时间1月31日凌晨，恐慌性抛售席卷全球贵金属市场。 现货白银日内跌幅扩大至34.67%，从110美元/盎司上方一路跌至75.38美元/盎司。现货黄金日内跌幅扩大至12.41%，从5400美元/盎司跌至4709.68美元/盎 司。 30日，美国总统特朗普提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席。 沃什2006年加入美联储，是当时最年轻的美联储理事。在美联储任职期间，沃什持鹰派货币政策立场，但近年转向支持特朗普的关税政策及加快降息立 场。该消息发布后，市场迅速聚焦其货币政策取向及美联储独立性问题。市场普遍认为，美联储未来一年降息幅度大致集中在50个基点至100个基点之 间。 中金公司分析指出，由于美联储政策与美国经济尚未出现拐点，因此黄金牛市可能并未结束。但在黄金价格已经脱离基本面指标与模型拟合后，市场波动 或明显增大，具体点位预测难度较高，建议淡化黄金价格点位预测，更关注资产趋势改变时点。 | V 期 XAU | ◀ | | | 伦敦金（现货黄金）CFD ▶ Q Q Q | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4709.68 -667.46 ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to replace Powell as the Federal Reserve Chairman indicates an attempt to align monetary policy with his administration's goals, particularly advocating for lower interest rates [1][3]. Group 1: Warsh's Background and Experience - Warsh has a dual background in Wall Street and public service, having served as a Federal Reserve Governor during the 2008 financial crisis and as a member of the Bush administration's economic advisory team [4][5]. - He was the youngest person to be appointed as a Federal Reserve Governor at the age of 35 and has maintained close ties with Trump, providing economic policy advice over the years [5][6]. Group 2: Policy Proposals and Monetary Reform - Warsh has publicly criticized the Federal Reserve's policies, particularly its balance sheet expansion, and has called for comprehensive reforms, including significant reductions in the balance sheet to create room for future interest rate cuts [6][7]. - His previous cautious stance on interest rate cuts has shifted, now advocating for a reduction in rates, aligning with Trump's objectives [6][7]. Group 3: Constraints on Warsh's Influence - As Chairman, Warsh's ability to influence monetary policy will be limited, as decisions require majority support from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), where he only has one vote [7][9]. - Historical precedents show that even respected Chairpersons can face challenges in gaining consensus, which may complicate Warsh's efforts to push for rate cuts [7][9]. Group 4: Independence of the Federal Reserve - The appointment of a Chairman aligned with the President's views does not necessarily end the Federal Reserve's independence, as the dynamics within the FOMC will play a crucial role in determining policy direction [9][10]. - Ongoing legal challenges regarding the dismissal of Fed officials could further impact the independence and decision-making processes within the Federal Reserve [9][10].

30日，美国总统特朗普提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席。 北京时间1月31日凌晨，恐慌性抛售席卷全球贵金属市场。 现货白银日内跌幅一度扩大至34.67%，从110美元/盎司上方一路跌至75.38美元/盎司。现货黄金日内跌幅扩大至12.41%，从5400美元/盎司跌至4709.68美 元/盎司。 | V 期 XAU | ◀ | | | 伦敦金（现货黄金）CFD ▶ | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4709.68 -667.46 -12.41% | | | | | | (664) ... | | 01-31 02:40:00 | | | | | | | | 今开 5450.95 | 5400.25 | 最高 | | 持仓量 | | | | 振幅 | 14.22% | 最低 | 4686.12 | | 昨结算 5377.14 | | | 美元指数 97.0906 +0.9269% | | | | | | | | 周K 分时 - - - | | | | 目K | 更多, 田 ◎ | | | 均价:5142.52 最新:4709.68 - ...

Core Viewpoint - A panic sell-off has swept through the global precious metals market, leading to significant declines in both silver and gold prices. Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Spot silver experienced a drastic intraday drop of 34.67%, falling from above $110/oz to $75.38/oz [1] - Spot gold saw an intraday decline of 12.41%, decreasing from $5400/oz to $4709.68/oz [1][2] Group 2: Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market faced a broad decline, with the Nasdaq down 1.22%, the Dow Jones dropping over 1%, and the S&P 500 falling by 0.92% [4] - The market is closely monitoring the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which has raised concerns about monetary policy direction and the independence of the Fed [5][6] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) suggest that the gold bull market may not be over, despite current price volatility [6] - The expectation is that the Fed may slow down its easing pace by early 2026 due to rising inflation and improving economic growth, which could temporarily pressure gold prices [6] - The future bull market for gold is anticipated to be volatile, influenced by Fed policies and U.S. economic trends, with silver expected to experience even greater price fluctuations due to its smaller market size [6]

美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰表示，他预计特朗普提名的新任美联储主席凯文·沃什将能够有效地领导美联储 货币政策委员会。 米兰周五表示，"他之前就在那儿任职过，了解这个机构是如何运作的，也认识很多关键的相关人物， 并且具备完成这件事所需要的尊重和公信力。我认为，他将能够整合所需的论点和证据，说服他人接受 其政策主张。" 米兰对美联储本周按兵不动的决策持异议。他表示"我仍然认为，我们需要较目前水平进一步大幅下调 利率。不过，鉴于我们在降息方面已经取得了一些进展，接下来可以放慢节奏，每次会议降息25个基 点。" 米兰周五早些时候表示，他对显示通胀较美联储目标高出几乎一个百分点的数据持怀疑态度。 米兰说："几乎所有超过目标的通胀都是由我们衡量通胀时两个非常特殊的习惯造成的。"他指出，这主 要涉及住房以及投资组合管理费用如何被纳入通胀指标的技术性问题。 他在谈及这两个因素的影响时说："这不是真正的通胀，而是虚假的通胀。一旦做出这些调整，你再看 基于市场、不含住房部分的核心通胀，目前大约是2.2%。这处在我们目标附近，因此不存在通胀问 题。" 米兰于去年9月经特朗普任命加入美联储。他表示，预计白宫会用他的席位将沃什安排进入美联储 ...