Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating provided for the industry in the report Group 2: Core Views - The price center of finished products will move down and run weakly, with an expected trend of oscillating consolidation [1][3] - Aluminum prices will remain high in the short - term, with an expected short - term strong performance, but high - price risks should be watched out for [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Category Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons [2] - In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [3] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, with the price hitting a new low. The market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum - Macroscopically, the US dollar is weakening. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the January 27 - 28 meeting, but the market still expects two more rate cuts later this year [2] - For domestic mines, the supply shortage has eased, alumina plants' bauxite inventories are accumulating, and the intended purchase price is falling, with further downward space expected [3] - For imported mines, the intended transaction price has declined, the market is quiet, and alumina plants' procurement plans are cautious [3] - Last week, the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises rose 0.2 percentage points to 60.1%. The overall pattern is "supply - side disturbances ease, demand - side suppression intensifies", and high aluminum prices suppress consumption and operating rate recovery [3] - On January 12, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 730,000 tons, a 46,000 - ton increase from the previous Monday [3] - The macro - performance is strong. The logic of the Fed's interest - rate cut - driven monetary easing cycle remains unchanged. Domestic monetary easing and consumption policies have boosted market sentiment and demand expectations, keeping aluminum prices high [4]

黄金股票ETF基金紧密跟踪中证沪深港黄金产业股票指数，中证沪深港黄金产业股票指数从内地与香港 市场中，选取50只市值较大且业务涉及黄金采掘、冶炼、销售的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映内 地与香港市场中黄金产业上市公司证券的整体表现。 数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，中证沪深港黄金产业股票指数(931238)前十大权重股分别为紫金矿 业、山东黄金、中金黄金、赤峰黄金、招金矿业、山金国际、山东黄金、紫金矿业、紫金黄金国际、湖 南黄金，前十大权重股合计占比63.58%。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资 产，但不保证本基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益。基金管理人提醒投资人基金投资的"买者自负"原 则，在做出投资决策后，基金运营状况与基金净值变化引致的投资风险，由投资人自行负担。基金的过 往业绩及其净值高低并不预示其未来业绩表现，基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩不构成对本基金业绩 表现的保证。投资人购买基金，既可能按其持有份额分享基金投资所产生的收益，也可能承担基金投资 所带来的损失。投资人应当认真阅读《基金合同》《招募说明书》等基金法律文件，全面认识本基 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 新能源&有色组 2026年1月12日，日盘沪锡价格上涨触及涨停。目前价格在37.6万附近。同时加权合约持仓量接近13万 张，同样创出阶段性新高。目前在持仓与价格一同走高的情况下，预计锡价格短期或仍维持相对偏强态 势。 就基本面而言，虽然此前有调研称佤邦地区或将全面解除禁矿令。并且此前实则此前已有部分放开，但 复产情况则不及预期，因此目前锡矿加工费同样维持低位，矿端供应紧张的格局并无明显缓解。 另一方面，对于锡终端行业而言，近期费城半导体指数同样持续走强，叠加美联储降息预期使得科技板 块（利率相对敏感）的展望也受到提振，同时终端高科技产品对于锡价的敏感度暂时尚不明显。同时美 国7大科技公司目前资本支出也仍在持续快速增长。国内相关板块同样存在相对良好前景，因此总体来 看，除去资金以及情绪因素，锡品种基本面目前同样呈现相对健康格局。 就当下具体操作而言，有卖出套保需求的企业，建议不要在涨势最为猛烈之际仓促入场做空，同时如果 条件允许，可适当采取期权策略。买入套保可待行情回落至36.5万元/吨至37万元/吨间进行操作，不过 倘若 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 责任编辑：朱赫楠 作者： 新能源&有色金属组 2026年1月12日，日间盘，沪铜价格涨幅一度超过3%，目前在10.3万元/吨附近徘徊。沪铜加权指数持仓 则是逼近70万手。 目前就铜品种基本面而言，虽然在当下消费淡季以及铜价高企的背景下，国内下游消费羸弱，库存出现 累高的情况。不过就铜价的反应来看，似乎并未受短期消费疲弱的影响，依然维持较强态势。不过与有 色中其他诸如白银以及锡等品种相比，目前铜价涨幅则是略显逊色，这或许已经是消费疲弱对于价格的 反馈。 不过就长期展望而言，2026年在美联储降息预期以及矿端供应偏紧预期持续存在的情况下，预计铜价在 上半年便会创出全年高点。而下半年，部分利空因素（如降息节奏的改变以及Comex库存向非美地区流 出的风险）或逐步显现，届时不排除铜价或将陷入震荡甚至回调的情况。 就具体操作建议而言，目前有买入套保需求的企业，建议铜价在10万元/吨以上时，维持短期按需采购 的思路，倘若价格有望回落至98000元/吨至99000元/吨，则可加大套保力度（如一次性套保3个月的 量）。有卖出套保需求的企业则建议 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term due to weakened Fed rate - cut expectations, geopolitical factors, tight copper mine supply, and high prices suppressing consumption [2][3] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain high, driven by the strength of overseas supply - demand and the recovery of domestic downstream start - up rates, despite inventory accumulation pressure [5][6][7] - Cast aluminum alloy prices are likely to stay high due to strong cost - side prices and continuous supply - side disturbances, with relatively average demand [9][10] - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector, influenced by the current industrial situation and the contradiction between macro and industrial capital [12][13][14] - Zinc prices are also expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous sector sentiment, with potential for a large price increase compared to copper and aluminum, despite the lack of significant improvement in the industrial situation [15][16] - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market risk preference, and it is recommended to wait and see [17][18][19] - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, constrained by inventory pressure but supported by domestic liquidity, and short - term waiting is recommended [20][21] - Carbonate lithium prices may see a "rush - to - export" effect, but rapid increases also bring回调 risks, and it is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position attempt [23][24] - Alumina prices are facing multiple difficulties in continuous rebound, and it is recommended to wait and see, with the option of shorting near - term contracts on price rallies [26][27] - Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend in the short - term due to stable cost support, low supply from steel mills, and continuous inventory reduction [29][30] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: LME copper 3M rose 1.59% to $13,172/ton, and SHFE copper main contract was at 103,320 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 1,750 tons, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by about 20,000 tons [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Fed rate - cut expectations are weakened, and geopolitical factors may cool the short - term sentiment. The copper mine supply is tight, and prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The reference range for SHFE copper main contract is 101,000 - 105,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $12,800 - 13,300/ton [3] Aluminum - **Market Information**: LME aluminum rose 1.33% to $3,191/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract was at 24,630 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum bar social inventories increased, and LME aluminum inventory decreased [5] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high - level volatility of precious metals and non - ferrous metals has increased, and overseas geopolitical factors may cool the short - term sentiment. The aluminum price is expected to remain high, with a reference range for SHFE aluminum main contract of 24,100 - 25,000 yuan/ton and for LME aluminum 3M of $3,120 - 3,220/ton [6][7] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The main AD2603 contract of cast aluminum alloy rose 1.54% to 23,340 yuan/ton, and domestic mainstream ADC12 prices increased. The domestic aluminum alloy inventory slightly increased [9] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side prices are strong, and there are continuous supply - side disturbances. Prices are expected to remain high [10] Lead - **Market Information**: SHFE lead index rose 0.48% to 17,464 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $2,059.5/ton. The lead ingot social inventory increased [12] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is near the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and the contradiction between macro and industrial capital is intensifying. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous sector sentiment [13][14] Zinc - **Market Information**: SHFE zinc index rose 0.66% to 24,166 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $3,181.5/ton. The zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has significant potential for a price increase compared to copper and aluminum. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous sector sentiment [16] Tin - **Market Information**: SHFE tin main contract rose 6.92% to 376,920 yuan/ton. The supply situation is complex, with some regions facing different problems, and the inventory decreased [17][18] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to fluctuate with market risk preference, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 310,000 - 370,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $43,000 - 47,000/ton [19] Nickel - **Market Information**: SHFE nickel main contract rose 3.67% to 144,200 yuan/ton. Nickel ore prices were stable, and nickel iron prices rebounded [20] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The nickel market has a large surplus pressure, but domestic liquidity provides support. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and short - term waiting is recommended. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $16,500 - 19,000/ton [21] Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The MMLC carbonate lithium spot index increased by 10%, and the LC2605 contract price rose [23] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The "rush - to - export" effect has raised demand expectations, but rapid price increases bring回调 risks. It is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position attempt. The reference range for the GZCE carbonate lithium 2605 contract is 152,000 - 168,000 yuan/ton [24] Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose 0.82% to 2,853 yuan/ton. The inventory increased, and the ore price decreased [26] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to decline, and the alumina smelting capacity is in surplus. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider shorting near - term contracts on price rallies. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2,450 - 2,950 yuan/ton [27] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,855 yuan/ton, and the social inventory decreased [29][30] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless - steel price is supported by the optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend in the short - term [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stocks, with the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - For bonds, the improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - For precious metals, if the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be volatile. For example, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term; aluminum prices are expected to remain high; zinc and lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [13][15][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom; iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level; glass and soda ash markets are generally weak; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [32][34][37]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be treated neutrally; the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised; methanol has the feasibility of buying on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies [55][57][59]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trend of hog prices is expected to be stable or slightly rising, and different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods; egg prices are expected to be stable or rising, and different strategies are also recommended for different contract periods [79][80][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products promoted a "soft landing" of the EU's anti - subsidy case on electric vehicles; Lihong No.1 completed its first sub - orbital flight test; Brain - Machine Haihe Laboratory completed the first "space brain - machine interface experiment"; prices of multiple non - ferrous and precious metal futures reached new highs [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: Different ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With incremental funds entering at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.30%, 0.07%, 0.05%, and 0.00% respectively. The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China, and the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued relevant policies on government investment funds [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 861 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with a net investment of 361 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.31%, and Shanghai silver rose 7.23%. The US federal prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, which impacted the Fed's independence [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: If the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Silver prices were strong, and the domestic equity market strengthened, driving copper prices to rise. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has weakened, and short - term sentiment may cool down. The copper mine supply is in a tight pattern, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The general atmosphere of bulk commodities was strong, and aluminum prices fluctuated and rose. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high - level fluctuations of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have increased, and short - term sentiment may cool down. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also increased. Zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [18]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. Lead ingot social inventory increased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is approaching the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [19]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron also changed accordingly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20][21]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose significantly. The supply in Myanmar is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin market demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to fluctuate following the market risk preference [22]. 3.2.7 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The "rush to export" effect has increased the demand expectation, but the rapid rise may increase the callback risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the inventory continued to accumulate [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The mine price is expected to decline, and the alumina market continues to face over - capacity. It is recommended to wait and see and consider shorting on rallies [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price was stable, and the social inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB supports the price. The price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [27]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy rose, and the inventory increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, and the supply is disturbed. The price is expected to remain high in the short term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and the inventory of rebar increased slightly while that of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom. It is necessary to pay attention to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coil and relevant policies [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment is in the off - season, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel mill's replenishment and iron - making rhythm [34]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash main contract price increased, and the inventory increased [35][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The soda ash market is generally weak [36][37]. 3.3.4 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market sentiment is positive, but the fundamental support for the price is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [40][41]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The spot prices also changed [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [45]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rose slightly, and the price of polysilicon decreased. The inventory of industrial silicon may increase, and the supply of polysilicon may be adjusted [46][48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to face inventory pressure, and polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant policies and production plans [47][49]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated and rebounded. The tire start - up rate had marginal fluctuations, and the inventory increased [51][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall commodity atmosphere is positive, but the rubber seasonality is weak. A neutral strategy is recommended, and short - selling can be considered if the price falls below a certain level [55]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main contract price of INE crude oil rose, and the inventories of refined oil products changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Latin American geopolitical situation does not have enough positive impact on the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised [57]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol changed, and the main contract price decreased [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and it has the feasibility of buying on dips [59]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea changed slightly, and the main contract price increased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window has opened, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies [62]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The inventory of pure benzene increased, and the inventory of styrene decreased [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene can be long - bought before the first quarter [64]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies [66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol market needs to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [71][72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is high, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the crude oil price [73]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may be supported, and it is recommended to long - buy the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [75]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price rose, and the inventory situation was complex [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price was mixed, and the price may stabilize or rise slightly [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term hog price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [80]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price mostly rose, and the price is expected to be stable or rise [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term egg price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [82]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price fluctuated. The import cost of soybeans may have a bottom, but the fundamental situation is weak [83][84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the combination of long - and short - term factors [84]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil futures price fluctuated. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased, and the domestic three - major oil inventories were at a relatively high level [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term expectation is optimistic. The oil price may be close to the bottom [86]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The spot price of sugar decreased slightly [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after February, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [89]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price decreased. The cotton supply and demand situation changed [90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price may fluctuate after rising. It is recommended to wait for a callback to buy [91].

人民财讯1月13日电，银河证券指出，全球地缘冲突加剧支撑铜、钨、钼、钴、稀土磁材等关键战略有 色金属价格上涨的逻辑有望延续。此外，美国劳动力市场动能已显著衰退，这或将提升市场当前对美联 储2026年降息2次的预期。在彭博大宗商品指数年度权重再平衡完成后，黄金白银有望重回涨势。 ...

Market Overview - The market operates on the principle that informed individuals earn from those who are less informed, emphasizing that in capital markets, there are only winners and losers [1] - The investment philosophy suggests that one should act when the price reaches a certain level and remain observant otherwise [1] Gold Market Analysis - On January 12, during the US trading session, spot gold surged past $4550.15, reaching a historical high of $4627.39, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and escalating tensions in Iran [2] - A new catalyst emerged as the Trump administration initiated a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, leading to increased safe-haven buying [2] - The significant drop in the US dollar contributed to the rise in gold prices, with the dollar experiencing its largest decline in three weeks [2] Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold opened strong on January 12, hitting a high of around $4600 and later reaching $4620, indicating a strong bullish trend without signs of a pullback [4] - The market is discussing the independence of the Federal Reserve due to the subpoena issued by the Justice Department, which could undermine confidence in policy decisions [4] - Current price levels suggest a potential test of $4690 if gold continues to rise, with support at $4560 [4] Oil Market Analysis - On January 12, US crude oil prices reached a near one-month high of $59.80 per barrel before retreating to around $58.95, influenced by heightened geopolitical risks related to Iran [5] - Concerns about potential military intervention by the US in Iran and fears of retaliatory actions affecting the Strait of Hormuz have driven market volatility [5] - The oil market is expected to experience fluctuations as geopolitical risks and supply-demand fundamentals interact [5] Technical Analysis of Oil - The daily chart indicates that oil prices have entered a consolidation phase after reaching $54.80, with three consecutive bullish candles [5] - The first resistance level for a mid-term rebound is at $60.50; failure to break this level may lead to continued weak and choppy price action [5] - Short-term trends suggest an upward movement, with MACD indicators showing bullish momentum [5]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals sector continues its strong performance from the previous year, with both gold and silver prices reaching historical highs in early January 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - On January 12, 2025, the London gold spot price surpassed $4600 per ounce for the first time, reaching a peak of $4611.210 per ounce, marking a historical high. The year-to-date increase in international gold prices has exceeded 6% [1]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au99.99 gold spot opened at 1003.50 yuan per gram on the same day, with a peak of 1029.00 yuan per gram, also a historical high [1]. Group 2: Silver Price Performance - The London silver spot price also showed strong performance, breaking through the $84 and $85 per ounce thresholds on January 12, 2025, with a peak of $85.546 per ounce, setting a new historical high [1]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Short-term gold price movements are driven by three main factors: strengthened expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, geopolitical uncertainties acting as short-term catalysts, and ongoing purchases of gold by central banks [2]. - The World Gold Council reported that global central banks net purchased 45 tons of gold in November 2025, maintaining a high level of gold buying despite a slight decrease from October [2]. - From early 2025 to November 2025, global central banks reported a cumulative net purchase of 297 tons of gold, indicating strong demand, although lower than record levels from previous years [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The ongoing willingness of global central banks to allocate gold remains a core factor influencing gold prices. Additionally, rising U.S. debt risks and questions about fiscal sustainability are decreasing the attractiveness of U.S. dollar assets, prompting a shift towards gold and other safe-haven assets [2]. - The expectation of continued Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, persistent gold purchases by central banks, and ongoing geopolitical risks are likely to sustain long-term demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2]. Group 5: Market Volatility - Despite reaching new highs, precious metal prices have shown increased volatility. The market may seek a new widely accepted trading range as prices break historical peaks, looking for the next key psychological and technical resistance levels [3].

来源：智通财经 在上周五美国发布喜忧参半的非农就业报告后，华尔街众多投行对美联储降息前景的预测都发生了变 动。 在这其中，反应最大的莫过于摩根大通——摩根大通迅速撤回了其对1月降息的预期，反而预测美联储 的下一次行动将是加息，预测方向可谓"180度大转弯"。 此外，巴克莱银行和高盛集团则与摩根士丹利一道，集体推迟降息时间预期。同时，麦格理重申了其对 美联储在今年第四季度加息的预测。 华尔街推迟或取消美联储降息预期 上周五的数据显示，美国12月就业增长放缓幅度超过预期。然而，失业率也降至4.4%，好于预期值 4.5%，同时工资增长稳健，表明劳动力市场并未迅速恶化。这增强了市场对美联储在今年1月会议上维 持借贷成本不变的预期。 摩根大通在报告中写道："如果未来几个月美国劳动力市场再度走弱，或者通胀大幅下降，美联储今年 晚些时候仍有可能放松政策。" 不过，该公司预计，美国的劳动力市场将在第二季度趋紧，而通胀下降的过程将相当缓慢。因此，该行 直接撤回了对美联储1月降息的预期，反而预计美联储的下一步行动，将是在明年第三季度加息25基 点。 芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的美联储观察工具显示，交易员预计，美联储在今年1月按兵 ...