Group 1 - Trump's latest tariff plan has triggered a sell-off in U.S. stocks and bonds, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both dropping nearly 1% [1] - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 70,000 ounces in June, marking the eighth consecutive month of increases, with a recovery in pace [1] - Tesla's stock plummeted by 7.6% amid declining sales, while Elon Musk made political comments regarding George Soros, calling him a puppet [1] Group 2 - CoreWeave has made a significant move in the AI infrastructure space by acquiring Core Scientific for $9 billion [1] - OpenAI is facing high costs for talent retention, with equity compensation accounting for 119% of its revenue [1] - Goldman Sachs has brought forward its expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut by three months, now anticipating it in September, with a terminal rate of 3%-3.25% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The egg futures price is falling. Due to high inventory of laying hens, increased supply of small - sized eggs, and weak demand in summer, the egg price is expected to remain low in the first half of July, but the decline is limited [3]. - The A - share market is expected to continue high - level oscillations. Gold is expected to rise in the long - term, and it's advisable to buy at low prices when it reaches important support levels. Iron ore has a high over - valuation risk, and a wide - range oscillation approach is recommended. Glass market needs real estate stimulus or major policies, and a shock approach is appropriate. Soybean oil may oscillate or strengthen in the short - term, and short - selling with a light position is advised when it reaches the previous high pressure area [7][11][15][19][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Egg Futures - Supply: High inventory of laying hens, increasing number of newly - laid hens, and increased supply of small - sized eggs lead to large supply pressure, and the pressure is hard to relieve soon [3]. - Demand: Summer is the off - season for egg consumption. School holidays reduce canteen purchases, and overall demand is weak and hard to change in the short - term. However, low prices may stimulate supermarket promotions and trader restocking [3]. - Price Outlook: Affected by the leap June, the egg price will remain low in the first half of July. The low - price area has delivery and cold - storage stocking, limiting the decline. Observe the strong support area of 3370 - 3350 for the main egg futures contract [3]. A - share Market - Market Performance: On Monday, the three major A - share indexes opened high and closed low, with only the Shanghai Composite Index closing in the positive territory above 3470 points. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [8][7]. Gold - Market Factors: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates reduces the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing gold to adjust. But the long - term upward trend remains unchanged, and it's advisable to buy at low prices when it reaches important support levels [12][11]. Iron Ore - Market Situation: Supply is rising month - on - month, iron - water production is seasonally weakening, and ports are accumulating inventory again. The weak reality increases the over - valuation risk of iron ore. Technically, it shows a trend of rising and then falling, and a wide - range oscillation approach is recommended [16][15]. Glass - Supply and Demand: There is no major cold - repair situation due to losses on the supply side, factory inventory is high, and downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking power, so demand is not continuously increasing. It needs real estate stimulus or major policies. Technically, it has been adjusting at a high level for three days, and a shock approach is appropriate [20][19]. Soybean Oil - Market Trend: Due to the long - term expectation of the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle - East situation, soybean oil may oscillate or strengthen in the short - term. But the current supply - demand is not tight, and it will see seasonal production and inventory increase in the medium - term. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 7950 - 8000, short - selling with a light position is advised [23].

Group 1 - U.S. stock futures remain volatile, indicating uncertainty in the market [1] - Spot gold has seen a slight increase of 0.1%, reflecting a potential safe-haven demand [1] - Trump stated that the tariff letter issued is essentially the final proposal, suggesting a firm stance in trade negotiations [1] Group 2 - The deadline for trade negotiations is set for August 1, but there are indications of other possible outcomes [1] - Trump mentioned a willingness to consider proposals from other countries if they are preferred, indicating flexibility in trade discussions [1]

特朗普：今天发送的关税信函在某种程度上是最终报价。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite concerns over "de-dollarization" and simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currencies, the U.S. stock market has outperformed global markets and reached new historical highs, with the Nasdaq rebounding 35% from its lows [1] Group 1: Market Performance - U.S. stocks have shown strong performance, leading global markets since the end of April and reaching historical highs [2] - After a brief outflow, funds have re-entered U.S. stocks and bonds, indicating renewed investor confidence [4][6] Group 2: Misconceptions about the Dollar and Stocks - There are two prevalent misconceptions: equating a weaker dollar with "de-dollarization" and assuming that a weak dollar leads to falling U.S. stocks [8] - The consensus on "de-dollarization" may face short-term challenges, with potential for a slight dollar rebound and U.S. stocks to outperform again in Q4 [8] Group 3: Impact of the "Big Beautiful Bill" - The "Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBBA) addresses the debt ceiling, extends tax cuts, reduces spending, and cancels certain provisions, significantly impacting fiscal policy [12][13] - The bill raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, allowing the Treasury to continue issuing debt to meet obligations [13] - It is projected to increase the basic deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, with total deficits including interest reaching $4.1 trillion [21] Group 4: Economic Implications - The bill is expected to avoid fiscal contraction, supporting the credit cycle and preventing significant expansion of the deficit due to increased tariff revenues [15][21] - Government credit is anticipated to improve in the second half of the year, with a fiscal pulse potentially improving to 0.6% [15][21] Group 5: Liquidity and Bond Supply - The resolution of the debt ceiling will lead to a short-term increase in bond supply, with an estimated net issuance of $1 trillion in Q3 [25][27] - This increase in supply may create liquidity pressures, similar to the situation observed in Q3 2023, which could affect bond yields and stock valuations [27][32] Group 6: Future Outlook - Short-term liquidity disruptions may provide reallocation opportunities, with expectations of two Fed rate cuts this year, bringing the central tendency of bond yields to around 4.2% [38][39] - The U.S. credit cycle is expected to restart, driven by strong AI investments and fiscal improvements, supporting a potential rise in the S&P 500 index to a range of 6000-6200 points [39]

Group 1 - The EU is seeking to reach a preliminary trade agreement with the US this week to lock in a 10% tariff rate before the August 1 deadline while continuing negotiations for a permanent agreement [1] - The EU aims to exempt certain key products from the 10% tariff, including aircraft, aircraft parts, wine, and spirits, with some form of reduction expected as part of the preliminary agreement [1][4] - The US has announced a delay of the previously scheduled universal tariffs, originally set for July 9, until at least early August [1] Group 2 - The EU is urging the US to implement quotas and exemptions to effectively lower the 25% tariff on cars and car parts, as well as the 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum, although immediate breakthroughs on these tariffs are not anticipated [5] - Discussions are ongoing regarding a compensation mechanism that would allow companies producing cars in the US to export a certain number of tax-exempt vehicles [5] - Any preliminary agreement may be short-lived and non-binding, with both parties aiming to reach consensus on non-tariff barriers, digital trade, and economic security [5] Group 3 - There are divisions among EU member states regarding the acceptance of an imbalanced agreement, with some advocating for a swift deal while others prefer a stronger negotiating position [5] - The EU has approved tariffs on €21 billion ($24.6 billion) worth of US goods in response to US metal tariffs [6] - An additional list of tariffs targeting €95 billion worth of US goods is prepared by the EU in response to US tariffs on industrial products, including Boeing aircraft and American-made cars [6]

标普500股指期货目前跌0.22%，道指期货跌0.3%，纳斯达克100股指期货跌0.18%。 据媒体报道，美国提出贸易协议方案，对欧盟加征10%的关税、附带限制性条款。 但双方尚未敲定协议。 ...

比特币目前涨0.1%，暂报10.8万美元。白宫发布关于"延长关税最后期限"的命令，正式将关税截止日期 推后至8月1日。 ...

美国官员称不会将特定国家关税与行业关税叠加 金十数据7月8日讯，一位白宫官员周一被问及日本和韩国的情况时表示，美国不会将对特定国家的关税 与行业关税进行叠加。美国总统特朗普稍早表示，将从8月1日起对来自日本和韩国的商品征收25%的关 税，并在其社交媒体平台上发布致上述国家领导人的信函。 ...

金十图示：特朗普对7国发出最新关税税率威胁，并将于8月1日生效，相比特朗普4月宣布的对等关税变化如何？ | 国家 | "对等"关税 (%) | 8 月 1 日关税 (%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 日本 | 24 | 25 | | 哈萨克斯坦 | 27 | 25 | | 老挝 | 48 | 40 | | 马来西亚 | 24 | 25 | | 缅甸 | 44 | 40 | | 南非 | 30 | 30 | | 韩国 | 25 | 25 | ...