Core Viewpoint - The US manufacturing sector continues to experience contraction, with the ISM manufacturing index indicating a decline in orders and employment, while inflationary pressures are showing signs of acceleration [1][3]. Group 1: ISM Manufacturing Data - The ISM manufacturing PMI for June is reported at 49, slightly above the expected 48.8 and the previous value of 48.5, with 50 being the threshold for expansion [3]. - The new orders index fell to 46.4, below the expected 48.1 and previous 47.6, marking the largest decline in three months and reflecting ongoing economic slowdown [6]. - The employment index dropped to 45, a three-month low, with expectations at 47.1 and a previous value of 46.8, indicating five consecutive months of contraction in employment [6]. - The prices paid index reached 69.7, close to the highest level since June 2022, with expectations at 69.5 and a previous value of 69.4, highlighting rising raw material costs [6]. - The backlog of orders index decreased by 2.8 points to 44.3, the largest drop in a year, and has been in contraction for 33 consecutive months [6]. Group 2: Employment and Industry Analysis - Weak demand and reduced order backlogs are contributing to the accelerated decline in manufacturing employment, with a significant ratio of comments indicating layoffs compared to hiring [7]. - In June, nine manufacturing sectors experienced growth, with notable increases in apparel, petroleum, and non-metallic mineral products, while six sectors, including textiles and wood products, contracted [7]. - The S&P Global reported a Markit manufacturing PMI final value of 52.9 for June, indicating a recovery in manufacturing output after three months of decline, driven by new orders from domestic and export customers [7]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Price Pressures - The improvement in manufacturing output may be partially driven by inventory accumulation as companies prepare for potential supply issues and price increases related to tariffs [8]. - There are concerns regarding whether the current price pressures are a short-term adjustment or indicative of persistent inflation returning [8]. - Despite the challenges, business confidence has been recovering since April, with manufacturers feeling more optimistic amid reduced trade and tariff uncertainties [8].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell maintains flexibility regarding interest rate decisions, indicating a shift in factors influencing potential rate cuts [1] Group 1 - Powell avoided a direct question about the possibility of a rate cut in July, suggesting that it is inappropriate to overly focus on this month's decision [1] - Recent comments from Powell and others indicate a subtle change in tone, moving away from an immediate need for rate cuts [1] - Speculation arose that significant price increases post-tariff removal might necessitate a substantial weakening in the labor market before considering rate cuts [1] Group 2 - The recent pause on tariffs and early inflation readings have not shown meaningful impacts, leading Powell to suggest that if inflation concerns are not severe, rate cuts may be reconsidered [1]

大家好啊，今晚看看美股的表现。 美股分化 另外，特朗普表示他可能会考虑驱逐出生在南非的马斯克。 前不久，马斯克抨击特朗普提出的"大而美法案"，称其"完全疯狂且具有破坏性"。在回应特朗普最新帖文时，马斯克在X上发文写道："我真心希望把 所有补贴都砍掉，就现在。" 这并非特朗普与马斯克首次因政府支出计划发生冲突，今年早些时候两人就曾爆发争执。 英伟达股价盘中大幅跳水跌超3%。芯片股普遍回调，AMD、ARM下跌约4%，博通下跌超3%，阿斯麦、美光下跌约2%，台积电下跌超1%。 | .SOX 费城半导体指数 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5477.73 + -68.82 -1.24% | | | | | | | | 图表 具相权 | 评论 | 资讯 | | | | | | VWAP 成交量 | 元比 | KDJ | MACD | RSI | | | | 0 田 名称代码 ⇒ | | | 价格 = | | 涨跌幅 ⇒ | 涨跌额 | | MACOM Technolog ... | | | 136.155 | | -4.98% | ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasizes focus on job performance and avoidance of political involvement [1] - The U.S. economy is currently in a relatively good state, with a cautious approach suggested as long as it remains strong [5] - Inflation is expected to rise during the summer, with anticipated levels running as expected if tariff factors are ignored [5] Group 2: European Central Bank Perspectives - European Central Bank President Lagarde states that future interest rate paths will not be committed to, with data revealing the answers [1] - Inflation targets have been reached, but vigilance against inflation must be maintained [1] - Exchange rates will be considered in forecasts, reflecting the strength of the economy [1] Group 3: Bank of England Commentary - Bank of England Governor Bailey notes a downward trend in interest rates, with significant uncertainty regarding terminal rate levels [2] - Current inflation in the UK is driven entirely by price management, with no visible impact from tariffs on prices [2] - Monetary policy remains restrictive and is expected to become more neutral [2] Group 4: Bank of Japan Analysis - Bank of Japan Governor Ueda indicates that current interest rates are below neutral levels, with any rate hikes dependent on three inflation dynamics [3] - Potential inflation is currently below price targets, with a slow rise expected [3] Group 5: Bank of Korea Observations - Bank of Korea Governor Lee states that the country remains in a monetary easing cycle, closely monitoring financial stability risks for further rate cuts [4] - Tariff policies are expected to have a deflationary effect, with a 26% tariff and industry tariffs impacting GDP by over 1% [4] - The Korean won has appreciated significantly over the past two months, indicating a form of currency normalization [4]

金十数据7月1日讯，美国制造业在6月份仍然低迷，新订单低迷，投入价格攀升，这表明特朗普政府对 进口商品征收的关税继续阻碍企业提前计划的能力。最新的数据显示，美国6月ISM制造业PMI从5月的 六个月低点48.5微升至49.0。这是PMI连续第四个月低于50，这表明占经济10.2%的制造业出现收缩。与 此同时，楼市、消费者支出和失业人数不断增加等疲弱数据显示，美国经济的潜在动能在第二季进一步 放缓，尽管GDP可能反弹，因创纪录的贸易逆差拖累因进口下降而消退。 受关税影响，美国制造业陷入疲软 ...

美联储主席杰罗姆.鲍威尔重申，关税影响预计将在未来几个月的通胀数据中显现，但他也承认不确定 因素依然存在。鲍威尔周二在央行领导人讨论会上说，"我们正在关注，预计夏季会看到一些更高的数 字"。但他补充道，关税影响有可能"高于或低于预期，到来的时间可能早于或晚于预期"，政策制定者 对这些有心理准备。尽管特朗普就降息施加强大压力，但美联储今年迄今未改变其基准利率。(新浪财 经) ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market's expectation of the 232 tariff has been postponed to September/October, and the price and spread of non-US regions will be significantly supported before the 232 tariff is implemented [5][7] - The supply of alumina is slightly in excess, and the price is expected to fluctuate within the range corresponding to the high-cost production capacity and cash cost of bauxite at $73 - $75 [13][16] - The aluminum ingot social inventory is expected to remain in a narrow range of increase or decrease in July, and the aluminum consumption off-season may not be too light [23] - The market trading atmosphere of cast aluminum alloy is relatively light, and the price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum price [28] - The supply of zinc continues to increase, and the downstream enters the consumption off-season, so the zinc price may be under pressure to decline [37] - The supply of lead may be tightened, and the lead price may fluctuate strongly under the improvement of consumption [42] - The supply and demand of nickel are in a weak pattern, and the nickel price is under pressure in the medium term [49] - The stainless steel price is under pressure, and it is expected to decline in shock [57] - The supply of tin is tight, and the demand is in the off-season, so the short-term market is strong [64] - The price of industrial silicon is affected by market rumors, and it is recommended to operate short-term according to the technical graph [70][72] - The polysilicon market is affected by industry and macro factors, and it is recommended to wait and see [76] - The lithium carbonate price may test the upper pressure, but the upward space is limited, and the idea of shorting on rallies remains in the medium term [81] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2508 contract closed at 80,640 yuan/ton, up 1.09%, and the Shanghai Copper Index reduced its position by 15,446 lots to 596,100 lots. The spot price increased in Shanghai and Guangdong but decreased in Tianjin [2] - **Important Information**: The sales volume of new energy vehicles in the world from January to May 2025 reached 7.89 million units, accounting for 27.7% of the total vehicle sales [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the unilateral position; buy near and sell far for arbitrage; wait and see for options [8][9][10] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2509 contract decreased by 42 yuan to 2,945 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 4,532 lots to 429,700 lots. The spot price remained unchanged [11] - **Related Information**: The winning bid price of alumina in Xinjiang increased, and the warehouse receipt decreased [12] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [16][17] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract increased by 65 yuan/ton to 20,800 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 21,366 lots to 680,400 lots. The spot price in East China increased, while that in South China remained unchanged and that in Central China decreased [19] - **Related Information**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly, and the production of aluminum rods decreased [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the unilateral position; consider positive arbitrage opportunities when de-stocking; wait and see for options [24] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 50 yuan to 19,825 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 258 lots to 10,089 lots. The spot price remained unchanged [26] - **Related Information**: The expected sales volume of passenger cars in June increased, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased [26] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum price, and consider arbitrage trading and spot-futures arbitrage under certain conditions; wait and see for options [30] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2508 contract decreased by 0.8% to 22,255 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Zinc Index decreased by 6,105 lots to 268,800 lots. The spot price decreased, and the market trading improved [32] - **Related Information**: The smelter in Peru resumed production, and domestic zinc production projects were put into operation [33] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see on the unilateral position, and consider shorting on rallies; wait and see for arbitrage and options [38] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2508 contract decreased by 0.26% to 17,100 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Lead Index increased by 1,148 lots to 82,600 lots. The spot price decreased, and the trading was limited [40] - **Related Information**: The social inventory of lead ingots increased, and Shanghai introduced subsidy policies for electric bicycles [41] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable long positions and consider adding long positions on dips; wait and see for arbitrage and options [43] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2508 decreased by 250 to 120,720 yuan/ton, and the position of the index decreased by 3,110 lots. The spot premium remained unchanged or decreased slightly [46] - **Related Information**: Indonesian nickel projects were launched, and China's economic prosperity level expanded [47][48] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rallies on the unilateral position; wait and see for arbitrage; consider selling call options after rallies [50][52] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract SS2508 decreased by 110 to 12,560 yuan/ton, and the position of the index increased by 4,789 lots. The spot price range was given [56] - **Related Information**: India launched an anti-dumping review on Chinese stainless steel pipes, and China continued to impose anti-dumping duties on imported stainless steel [57] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to decline in shock; wait and see for arbitrage [58][59] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin 2508 closed at 269,840 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan/ton or 0.63%. The spot price decreased slightly, and the trading volume increased slightly [61] - **Related Information**: The sales volume of new energy vehicles in the world and different regions was given [62][63] - **Trading Strategy**: The short-term market is strong, and pay attention to the resumption rhythm of tin mines; wait and see for options [64][65] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures decreased significantly, and the spot price range was given [67][68] - **Related Information**: A high-performance fluorine-chlorine new material project was planned to be built [69] - **Trading Strategy**: Operate short-term according to the technical graph; wait and see for options; participate in the reverse arbitrage of Si2511 and Si2512 [72][73] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures decreased significantly, and the spot price decreased [74] - **Related Information**: China revised the Anti-Unfair Competition Law, and the US solar industry subsidy was discussed [75] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see on the unilateral position; wait and see for options and arbitrage [77][79] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract increased by 100 to 62,780 yuan/ton, and the position of the index decreased. The spot price remained unchanged [80] - **Related Information**: Hainan Mining signed a lithium spodumene purchase agreement, and the central government emphasized market construction [81] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rallies on the unilateral position; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out-of-the-money call options [82][83]

据英国金融时报：随着最后期限的临近，欧盟对特朗普关税的立场变得强硬。 ...

银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 7 月 1 日星期二 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：昨日，由于美元走弱，伦敦金小幅回升，并收复 3300 美元关口，最终 | | 研究员：王伟 | 收涨 0.88%，收报 3302.15 美元/盎司；伦敦银最终收涨 0.36%，报 36.09 美元/盎司。受 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 外盘影响，沪金主力合约收涨 0.54%，报 768.98 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 0.10%，报 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 8722 元/千克。 | | | 2.美元指数：美元指数日内震荡下行，跌破 97 关口，最终收跌 0.54%，报 96.875。 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 3.美债收益率：10 年期美债收益率高开低走，收报 4.23%。 | | 期货从业证号：F03110758 ...

Core Insights - The impact of a 26% tariff and industry-specific tariffs will exceed 1% of the domestic GDP [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Korea's Governor Lee Chang-yong highlighted that the tariffs will have significant economic implications [1]