Economic Outlook - The US is at the tail end of an economic recovery cycle while entering a new AI technology phase, with capital expenditure in the AI sector stabilizing[3] - Short-term market impacts are expected to be limited, with focus remaining on economic cycles, tariffs, fiscal policies, and geopolitical situations in the second half of 2025[3] Tariff Analysis - As of May, US tariff revenue was $22.17 billion, annualizing to approximately $266 billion, significantly lower than Navarro's estimate of $600 billion[3] - The weighted average tariff rate is projected to rise to 16.1%, potentially generating $665.91 billion in annual tariff revenue based on 2024 import levels of $4.1 trillion[3] - Tariff impacts on inflation may begin to manifest in Q3, with historical data suggesting a high pass-through rate to consumers[3] Fiscal Stability - The overall fiscal impact from the "Big Beautiful Bill" is expected to be limited, with a projected increase in the federal deficit of approximately $2.8 trillion over the next decade, but most of this will not materialize in 2025[3] - The expected interest expenditure in May was $86 billion, indicating significant ongoing fiscal pressures[3] - The upcoming maturity of US debt is not substantial, reducing concerns over debt sustainability in the near term[3] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could lead to significant inflationary pressures and complicate the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions[3] - Two scenarios are outlined: one where escalating tensions lead to higher oil prices and potential stagflation, and another where stabilization allows for possible interest rate cuts by the Fed[3] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on volatility trading strategies using tools like VIX and SIV, and considering domestic companies benefiting from reduced foreign competition due to tariffs[3] - In a stagflation scenario, commodities like gold may perform well, while in a shallow recession scenario, small-cap growth stocks and long-term US Treasuries may be favored[3] Risk Factors - Global economic performance may underperform expectations, leading to pressure on US equities and other risk assets[3] - Inflation could prove stickier than anticipated, complicating the Fed's rate-cutting plans[3] - Escalation of geopolitical conflicts could trigger rapid market volatility and inflationary pressures[3]

当前，特朗普总统挥舞的"关税大棒"，正遭遇来自日本、法国、德国等传统盟友的强硬抵抗，贸易谈判纷纷陷入僵局，各国对签协议显得有些"犹豫不决"。 关税谈判陷入僵局 此外，印度和美国在汽车零部件、钢铁和农产品进口关税等问题上存在分歧，双方僵持不下。 离7月9日这一美国政府暂停征收"对等关税"90天的截止期限仅剩十来天，多国与美国的关税谈判仍进展不及预期，这对特朗普政府来说，压力肉眼可见地飙 升。 随着多国对于关税的强硬表态，以及特朗普政府面对国内各阶层的压力，有分析认为，当前特朗普对于关税的态度似乎出现软化，相比此前其激进的政治口 号，目前很多关税条款的细节均可以谈判。 经济形势现隐忧 本周四，WTO（世界贸易组织）发布的最新一期《货物贸易晴雨表》显示，全球货物贸易景气指数从今年3月发布的102.8升至103.5，这一指数持续高于基 准点100，表明全球货物贸易仍呈现增长态势。此外，该数字也是2021年8月以来的最高水平。 分析人士称，美国总统特朗普已对进入美国的商品加征关税，并威胁要进一步提高关税，这导致企业提前下订单，以避免额外的成本。 WTO对此也表示，全球商品贸易加速增长，但增长势头可能无法维持。上述WTO ...

FICC日报 | 2025-06-27 人民币强势升破7.16，香港推数字资产新政 市场分析 国内5月经济仍待夯实。5月国内数据好坏参半，5月投资数据整体走弱，尤其是地产边际压力再增，后续或将拖累 财政收入，及整个地产链条；同时出口也略有承压，5月"抢出口"成色一般，叠加美国5月零售销售走弱，前期需 求透支下，后续外需预计将承压；5月仅有消费表现韧性，第三批消费品以旧换新资金将于7月下达。中国央行公 开市场6月26日净投放3,058亿元，创4月30日来最高。香港特区政府发表《香港数字资产发展政策宣言2.0》，将推 动黄金等贵金属、有色金属、新能源代币化。在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率升破7.16，创逾7个月新高。香港金管 局两年来首次买入港元以维护联系汇率。面对关税下的外需压力和内部的稳增长诉求，关注财政进一步加码的可 能。6月9-10日，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国伦敦举行，落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经 贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。关于7月9日到期的关税延后政策，6 月12日特朗普政府首次公开承认其关税时间表存在灵活性。美国暂缓关税的截止日逼近，欧盟准 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Different Industries The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but offers specific operation suggestions for various commodities, which can be roughly summarized as follows: - **Buy**: Iron ore, coking coal, coke, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, crude oil (in certain circumstances), urea, short - fiber, bottle - chip, soybean meal and rapeseed meal (short - term), live pigs, corn, palm oil, soybean oil, cottonseed oil, sugar (short - term), glass, polysilicon (with caution), lithium carbonate [2] - **Sell**: Synthetic rubber, styrene, caustic soda (mid - term), PVC, LLDPE, PP, methanol, sugar (rebound), cotton, eggs (near - month), apples, peanuts, pure membrane, rubber, industrial silicon [2] - **Hold/Observe**: Stock index futures, treasury bonds, precious metals, container shipping index, steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, crude oil (short - term), PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, ethanol, styrene, caustic soda (short - term), PVC, LLDPE, PP, methanol, soybean meal and rapeseed meal, live pigs, corn, palm oil, soybean oil, cottonseed oil, sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, peanuts, glass, rubber, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate [2][4] 2. Core Views - **Financial Markets**: The stock index has sector rotation and upward pressure. The bond market may have short - term fluctuations but remains generally strong. Gold and silver prices show different trends due to factors such as inflation data and macro - policies [2] - **Industrial Commodities**: Industrial materials in the steel sector have poor demand and inventory. The iron ore market has high - level iron water production and resilient terminal demand. The coal market has weak - stable spot prices and improved trading [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The energy and chemical market is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, oil prices, and geopolitical conflicts. Different products have different trends, such as PTA and short - fiber with supply - demand changes and cost - related impacts [2] - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as production, supply, and market sentiment. For example, the price of live pigs is affected by early - stage diarrhea in piglets, and the price of sugar is affected by overseas supply prospects [2] - **Special Commodities**: Special commodities like glass and rubber are affected by factors such as production, supply, and market sentiment. For example, glass has better spot market sales, and rubber has a weakening fundamental outlook [2] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Financial Commodities - **Stock Index Futures**: Observe the discount state of index futures, recommend buying the deeply discounted 09 contracts of CSI 1000 on dips and selling out - of - the - money call options on the 09 contracts above 6300 to form a covered call portfolio [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: On the unilateral strategy, buy treasury bond futures on dips. On the cash - and - carry strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract and consider steepening the yield curve [2] - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices fluctuate between $3300 - 3400. Try the double - selling strategy of out - of - the - money gold options. Silver prices are strongly oscillating between $36 - 37 [2] Industrial Commodities - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For the steel rebar RB2510, consider the long - material and short - raw - material arbitrage operation [2] - **Iron Ore**: Iron water production remains high, and terminal demand is resilient. Buy on dips with an upper pressure level around 720 [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal trading has improved, and the price is expected to rise. Coke prices are close to the bottom. Consider the long - coking - coal and short - coke strategy [2] Energy and Chemical Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The market is driven by fundamentals, with a stalemate between bulls and bears. The upper pressure of Brent is in the range of [64, 65], and the pressure level of SC is in the range of [490, 500]. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see [2][4] - **PTA and Related Products**: PTA and short - fiber have supply - demand changes. PTA is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4900, and short - fiber is expected to repair processing fees [2] Agricultural Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The diarrhea of piglets at the beginning of the year may affect subsequent supply, and the market sentiment is strong. Be cautiously bullish [2] - **Sugar**: Overseas supply prospects are relatively loose. Trade short on rebounds, with a reference range of 5600 - 5850 [2] Special Commodities - **Glass**: The spot market sales are improving, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 950 - 1050 [2] - **Rubber**: The fundamental outlook is weakening, and short positions should be held if the price is above 14000 [2]

耐克CFO Matthew Friend：美国关税将增加10亿美元成本。耐克进口到美国的鞋子约有16%产自中国，公司的目标是通过将生产转移到其他国家，在2026年5月底之前将这一数字降至低于10%。 ...

芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比提出，若通胀数据明确趋近2%目标且经济不确定性消退，降息可能提上日程，但 他同时强调需确认关税影响可控。鲍威尔在国会听证会上重申，关税的不确定性使美联储暂缓行动，当前 政策立场具备灵活性。 特朗普本周继续施压美联储降息，并批评鲍威尔的利率政策，但白宫尚未明确鲍威尔的继任者人选。芝加 哥联储主席古尔斯比对此回应，通过人事任命干预货币政策不会产生实际效果。 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯、旧金山联储主席戴利及美联储主席鲍威尔等决策者近期均强调，需更多经济数据 以确认通胀回落的持续性。戴利在采访中重申其"秋季降息"的开放态度，但明确排除七月会议采取行动的 可能性，指出关税对物价的具体影响仍需观察。波士顿联储主席柯林斯则直言，单月数据不足以支撑决 策，需等待更长期限的数据验证通胀趋势。 劳动力市场方面，最新数据显示持续申请失业救济人数升至2021年11月以来高位，但首次申请失业救济人 数环比回落。戴利认为当前就业市场处于"放缓但稳健"状态，未现需紧急政策响应的疲软信号。里士满联 储主席巴尔金警告，关税可能推高物价压力，美联储应保持耐心以待形势明朗。 本周，多位美联储官员就降息时机及通胀前景发表公开言论，内 ...

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 6 月 27 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...

首席点评：美国经济萎缩 铜：夜盘铜价收涨超 1%。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。根据国家统计局数据 来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产 持续疲弱。多空因素交织，铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 素变化。 玻璃纯碱：玻璃期货整理运行。基本面，盘面目前在千元下方逐步止跌，横盘震荡。不过，整体而言市 场依然关注宏观托底背景下微观层面供需消化的成效。数据方面，上周玻璃生产企业库存 6052万重 箱，环比增加7万重箱。纯碱期货反弹。数据层面，本周纯碱生产企业库存179.3万吨，环比增加4.2万 吨。综合而言，国内，玻璃纯碱都处于库存承压消化的周期，由于生产利润不佳，目前的去库进程需要 时间。不过，随着国内消费需求的提振，继续关注玻璃纯碱自身的供需消化过程，同时关注商品整体的 回暖对于地产链的需求带动。纯碱而言，总体供给仍有一些变化，后市聚焦于供需的平衡过程，尤其是 供给端的调节能否有助于库存的进一步消化。 一、当日主要新闻关注 1）国际新闻 国务院总理李强出席亚投行第十届理事会年会开幕式并致辞。李强指出，今年中国 ...

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and closed lower on June 26, with an opening price of $3,325.78 per ounce, a high of $3,350.34, a low of $3,309.91, and a closing price of $3,324.81 [1] Economic Data - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending June 21 was recorded at 236,000, lower than the market expectation of 245,000, and unchanged from the previous value [2] - The final annualized quarterly GDP for Q1 in the U.S. was reported at -0.5%, below the expected -0.2% [2] - The final annualized quarterly core PCE price index for Q1 was recorded at 3.5%, exceeding the expected 3.4% [2] - The final quarterly personal consumption expenditures for Q1 were reported at 0.5%, lower than the expected 1.2% [2] - The increase in jobless claims suggests a potential rise in the unemployment rate for June, with economists predicting it may rise from 4.2% in May to 4.3% [2] Real Estate Market - The U.S. pending home sales index for May increased by 1.8% to 72.6, surpassing expectations [4] - The chief economist of the National Association of Realtors noted that while job growth and wage increases support the real estate market, fluctuating mortgage rates significantly impact housing affordability [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Boston Fed President Collins indicated that a rate cut in July may be premature, with a baseline outlook suggesting a potential rate cut later in the year [4] - Fed official Barkin stated that tariffs are likely to increase inflationary pressures in the coming months, although the immediate impact on inflation has been minimal [4] Trade Developments - U.S. Commerce Secretary Ross expressed confidence that a tax bill will pass soon and that trade agreements will be announced shortly [5] - Reports suggest the EU is considering lowering tariffs on a range of U.S. imports to quickly reach a trade agreement with the Trump administration [5] Geopolitical Developments - The Trump administration is reportedly discussing potential measures to assist Iran in obtaining up to $30 billion for civilian nuclear projects as part of efforts to bring Tehran back to the negotiating table [6] Gold ETF Holdings - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, maintained its holdings at 953.39 tons [7] Market Sentiment - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 79.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 20.7% [7] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed a pattern of fluctuations, with a current price range between $3,301 and $3,354, indicating a consolidation trend [10] - Short-term price movements suggest a bearish outlook, with resistance levels noted at various moving averages [10] Trading Strategy - Suggested trading ranges include aggressive long positions at $3,295 with a target above $3,316 and short positions at $3,337 with a target below $3,316 [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall A - share market shows sector rotation, with the index facing resistance above. The futures market also shows corresponding fluctuations, and different investment strategies are recommended according to different varieties [2][3][4]. - The sentiment in the Treasury bond futures market has warmed up, but there are still short - term end - of - quarter disturbances. The bond market is generally expected to be in a pattern of short - term fluctuations but overall strength [5][6]. - The prices of precious metals are dominated by tariffs and macro - policies. Gold and silver show different trends. Gold has a long - term upward trend but faces short - term uncertainties, while silver shows a relatively strong short - term trend [8][10][11]. - The container shipping futures EC shows a volatile trend, and it is recommended to wait and see cautiously [12]. - Different metals in the non - ferrous metals sector have different market conditions. For example, copper is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, while aluminum oxide is expected to be weak in the medium - long term [13][17]. - In the black metals sector, steel is affected by coking coal supply, iron ore may be stable and strong in the short term, and coking coal and coke have different supply - demand and price trends [41][43][45]. - In the agricultural products sector, meal products follow the decline of US soybeans, and the market trends of different agricultural products such as pigs, corn, sugar, and cotton vary [51][54][57]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Thursday, the A - share market opened lower, rose briefly, and then declined in the afternoon. The main stock indexes and the four major stock index futures contracts all adjusted. The basis discount of the four major stock index futures contracts was repaired to some extent [2][3]. - **News**: The National Development and Reform Commission will issue the third batch of consumer goods replacement funds in July. Overseas, Japan is negotiating tariffs with the US [3]. - **Funding**: On June 26, the A - share trading volume was basically the same as the previous day. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 305.8 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The index has stable support below and needs a driving force to break through above. It is recommended to try to buy the deeply discounted 09 contract of the CSI 1000 on dips and sell the 09 call option near 6300 to form a covered combination [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most Treasury bond futures closed flat, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 305.8 billion yuan. The central bank's attitude towards protecting liquidity is clear, and the end - of - month capital interest rate may fluctuate but is generally controllable [5][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The end - of - month capital situation still has disturbances, and the bond market is generally cautious. It is recommended to appropriately allocate long positions on adjustments, pay attention to economic data and funding trends, and consider positive arbitrage for the TS2509 contract and curve steepening strategies [6][7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Due to factors such as tariff negotiations and macro - policies, the US dollar index weakened, and the trends of gold and silver diverged. Gold prices declined slightly, while silver prices rose [8][10]. - **Outlook**: Gold has a long - term upward trend but faces short - term uncertainties. It is recommended to try the strategy of double - selling out - of - the - money gold options. Silver shows a relatively strong short - term trend, and its price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the range of $36 - 37 [10][11]. - **Funding**: The recent stable trends of US stocks and bonds and the strong performance of virtual currencies suppress the prices of precious metals, but the long - position boost has led to a continuous increase in silver ETF holdings [11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Quotation**: The spot prices of different shipping companies are provided [12]. - **Container Shipping Index**: The SCFIS European line index rose, while the US West line index declined. The SCFI composite index declined [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year. The demand side shows the PMI data of the eurozone and the US [12]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1700 - 1800, and it is recommended to wait and see cautiously [12][13]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: The average price of electrolytic copper increased, but the overall trading was inactive [13]. - **Macro**: The market's expectation of interest rate cuts has increased, the dollar index has weakened, and the COMEX - LME spread has widened again, which is beneficial to copper prices [13][14]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrate is expected to be restricted, and the production of refined copper increased in May but is expected to decline slightly in June [15]. - **Demand**: The processing and terminal demand of copper show different trends. The short - term domestic demand has resilience, but the "rush - to - export" demand may lead to pressure on the demand side in Q3 [16]. - **Inventory**: COMEX inventory is accumulating, while domestic inventory is slightly decreasing [16]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 78000 - 81000 [17]. Aluminum Oxide - **Spot**: The average spot price of aluminum oxide decreased [17]. - **Supply**: The production of metallurgical - grade aluminum oxide increased in May, and some production capacities are expected to resume production in June [18]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of aluminum oxide decreased, and the total registered warehouse receipts decreased [18]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The supply of aluminum oxide is in a state of slight excess, and it is recommended to arrange short positions at high prices in the medium - long term, with the main contract referring to the range of 2750 - 3100 [19]. Aluminum - **Spot**: The average spot price of aluminum decreased, and the premium decreased [20]. - **Supply**: The production of electrolytic aluminum increased in May, and the aluminum - water ratio remained high. The production capacity is expected to remain high in June [20]. - **Demand**: Downstream industries are in the traditional off - season, and the operating rates of various industries have declined [20]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots increased, and the LME inventory decreased [21]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Aluminum prices are expected to be in a wide - range high - level shock, with the main contract referring to the range of 19800 - 20800 [21]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: The average spot price of aluminum alloy remained unchanged [21]. - **Supply**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased in May, and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly in June [22]. - **Demand**: The demand is under pressure, and the market trading activity has decreased. The impact of the Sino - US economic and trade talks on actual demand has not yet been effective [22]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy has increased significantly [22]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be in a weak shock, with the main contract referring to the range of 19200 - 20000 [23]. Zinc - **Spot**: The average price of zinc ingots increased, but the downstream receiving willingness was low [23]. - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, and the production of refined zinc is expected to increase in June [24]. - **Demand**: The demand at the initial end is weakening, and the downstream is mainly purchasing on dips [25]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory and LME inventory are both decreasing [25]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Zinc prices are expected to be in a shock in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 21500 - 23000 [26]. Tin - **Spot**: The price of tin increased, but the market trading was cold [26]. - **Supply**: The import of tin ore increased in May, mainly from Africa, while the supply from Myanmar remained low [27][28]. - **Demand and Inventory**: The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory shows different trends. The LME inventory decreased, while the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [28]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Tin prices are expected to be in a wide - range shock in the short term. It is recommended to short at high prices according to the inflection points of inventory and import data [29]. Nickel - **Spot**: The average price of electrolytic nickel increased [29]. - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is at a high level, and the monthly production is expected to decline slightly [29]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloys is stable, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak [30]. - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory remains high, and the domestic social inventory shows a slight downward trend [30]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Nickel prices are expected to be in a weak shock in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 116000 - 124000 [31]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: The price of stainless steel increased slightly, and the basis decreased [32]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore is expected to decline, and the price of nickel iron has decreased. The price of chrome ore has weak support [32]. - **Supply**: The production of stainless steel is expected to decrease slightly in June, with an increase in the 300 - series production [33]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory has increased, and the warehouse receipts have decreased [34]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price of stainless steel is expected to be in a weak operation, with the main contract referring to the range of 12300 - 13000 [35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: The price of lithium carbonate increased, and the price of lithium hydroxide decreased [36]. - **Supply**: The production of lithium carbonate is expected to increase in June, and the supply is still sufficient [37]. - **Demand**: The demand is generally stable, but there is pressure in the off - season [37]. - **Inventory**: The inventory has been accumulating in all links [38]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be in a weak shock in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 58000 - 62000 [39]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price remained stable, and the futures price fluctuated slightly [41]. - **Supply**: The production of steel decreased from a high level, and the production of five major steel products increased slightly [41]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased slightly, and the inventory was at a low level and basically balanced [41]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of steel is approaching the accumulation inflection point, with the inventory of rebar decreasing and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increasing slightly [42]. - **View**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for rebar and hot - rolled coil, and also consider selling out - of - the - money call options [42]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: The price of mainstream iron ore powder remained stable [43]. - **Futures**: The iron ore futures contract increased slightly [43]. - **Basis**: The basis of PB powder is 33.7 yuan/ton [43]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron production remained at a high level, and the demand for iron ore has certain resilience [43]. - **Supply**: The global shipment of iron ore increased, and the arrival volume at ports also increased [43][44]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory decreased [44]. - **View**: Iron ore is expected to be stable and strong in the short term, and it is recommended to go long on dips, with the range referring to 690 - 740 [44]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures price increased, and the spot price was weakly stable [45]. - **Supply**: The production capacity utilization rate of coal mines decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased [45][46]. - **Demand**: The demand for coking coal increased slightly, and the apparent demand increased [46]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coking coal decreased [46]. - **View**: It is recommended to go long on dips for the coking coal 2509 contract in the short term and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [47][48]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures price increased, and the spot price was stable. The fourth round of price cuts was implemented [49]. - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke was negative [49]. - **Supply**: The production of coke decreased slightly [49]. - **Demand**: The demand for coke increased slightly, and the apparent demand increased [50]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coke decreased [50]. - **View**: It is recommended to hedge the coke 2509 contract at high prices after the rebound, and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [50]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal Products - **Spot Market**: The price of soybean meal decreased, and the price of rapeseed meal decreased. The trading volume of rapeseed meal was 300 tons, and the opening rate of rapeseed pressing plants was 17% [51]. - **Fundamentals**: Analysts expect the US soybean inventory and planting area. The export of Brazilian soybeans slowed down, and the soybean harvest in Ukraine is expected to decrease [52]. - **Market Outlook**: The soybean meal price may follow the decline of US soybeans, but the support is expected to gradually strengthen [53]. Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of pigs fluctuated, with an average price of 14.56 yuan/kg [54]. - **Market Data**: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs increased, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening turned negative. The average slaughter weight decreased slightly [55]. - **Market Outlook**: The spot price of pigs is in a shock structure. The short - term futures price may be strong, but there may be a decline risk near the delivery of the 09 contract [56]. Corn - **Spot Price**: The price of corn in Northeast China, North China, and ports remained stable, with a slight increase in the price at Shekou Port [57]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of corn in northern four ports and processing enterprises decreased, and the inventory of feed enterprises decreased slightly [57][58]. - **Market Outlook**: The price of corn may decline slightly in the short term due to auction expectations, but the decline is limited. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - long term [58]. Sugar - **Market Analysis**: The global sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the price of raw sugar is expected to be in a weak shock. The domestic sugar price is expected to be in a bottom - range shock, with the reference range of 5650 - 5850 [59]. - **Fundamentals**: The sugar production in Brazil increased in May, and the sugar production in Thailand is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season. The import of sugar in China increased in May [59][60]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to short on rebounds [59]. Cotton - **Market Analysis**: The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a range shock, and it is necessary to pay attention to the macro and downstream demand [60]. - **Fundamentals**: The cotton planting progress in the US is slightly behind [61].