Core Viewpoint - China has shifted from a passive defensive strategy in international trade to an active offensive approach, responding decisively to unfair treatment and trade pressures from multiple countries [1][3][22]. Trade Measures - On July 1, China announced anti-dumping duties on stainless steel products imported from 30 countries, including the EU, Indonesia, and South Korea [4][5]. - The move is seen as a direct response to previous trade actions against China, such as the EU's imposition of a 13.2% anti-dumping duty on Chinese tinplate products [5][15]. Strategic Implications - The decision to impose tariffs on multiple countries simultaneously signals a significant change in China's role in international trade, indicating a transition to a more assertive stance [3][22]. - China is leveraging its strong industrial base in stainless steel production, which accounts for a substantial portion of the global market, to enhance domestic competitiveness [15][18]. Market Dynamics - The tariffs are designed to apply differentiated rates, particularly targeting South Korean companies, which may face punitive tariffs as high as 103.1%, while leaving some room for cooperation [18]. - Countries like Indonesia, which rely on their natural resources, are attempting to use their position to gain political leverage, but they may underestimate China's control over critical resources like nickel [10][19]. Global Reactions - The EU and UK are facing significant supply chain risks due to China's actions, prompting a reevaluation of their trade relationships with China [18]. - South Korean companies are experiencing stock declines and are considering relocating operations to mitigate risks associated with China's trade policies [18]. U.S.-China Relations - The U.S. has notably been excluded from the recent tariff list, indicating a potential shift in its approach towards China, as evidenced by recent actions to ease restrictions on exports to China [5][19][21]. - This strategic omission suggests that the U.S. may be seeking to improve relations with China, recognizing the importance of cooperation in the context of global supply chains [19][21].

Group 1 - The U.S. strategy of using tariffs to dominate global trade is facing unprecedented challenges, particularly highlighted by the 25% tariff on global automobiles, which has sparked strong international backlash and intensified geopolitical tensions [1] - India has retaliated against the U.S. with counter-tariffs on agricultural products, leveraging its $2.8 billion automotive parts exports to the U.S. as a bargaining chip [2][4] - The U.S. Midwest agricultural states, especially those reliant on soybean and almond exports to India, are experiencing significant economic impacts, leading to decreased farmer incomes and threatening political support for the ruling party [6] Group 2 - India's actions are driven by multiple considerations, including the need to protect its economic interests and the desire to enhance its international standing by challenging U.S. tariff policies at the WTO [3][4] - The political ramifications for the U.S.-India relationship are severe, with potential congressional pushback against military cooperation projects due to trade tensions [7] - The U.S. is also adjusting its approach towards China, allowing certain exports, indicating a strategic shift to seek a "soft landing" in its trade war while recognizing China's critical role in global supply chains [9][13] Group 3 - The response from India, the EU, and Japan to U.S. unilateralism indicates a shift towards a more multilateral global trade environment, undermining the effectiveness of the U.S. strategy [15] - The U.S. is attempting to use India as a strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific to counterbalance China, while India maintains a careful balance in its foreign relations [13]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a narrow fluctuation and a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3461.15 points, up 0.18%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 10534.58 points, up 1.17% [1][8] - A total of 24 out of 30 sectors in the CITIC first-level industry rose, with electronics, communications, and pharmaceuticals leading the gains, while coal, comprehensive finance, and comprehensive sectors saw significant declines [1][8] - The total trading volume of the A-share market was 13,335 billion yuan, continuing to decline compared to the previous day [1][8] Overseas Market Overview - All three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.77%, the S&P 500 up 0.83%, and the Nasdaq up 1.02% [2] - The Wande American Technology Seven Giants Index rose by 1.03%, with Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia each increasing by over 1% [2] Key News Highlights - The State Council issued a notice to replicate and promote 77 pilot measures from the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, covering various aspects such as service trade, digital trade, and risk prevention [10][11] - The U.S. has lifted export restrictions on three major chip design software suppliers, allowing them to fully restore access to Chinese customers [12][13] - The U.S. House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which has been controversial due to its implications for federal aid and long-term debt [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the macro - aspect, the economic and policy environment has an impact on different industries. The stock market is in an upward trend with strong bulls, but there are also uncertainties in the market expectations. In the commodity market, different products have different supply - demand relationships and price trends [19][21]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Indicators - On July 4, 2025, compared with July 3, the Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 0.774% to 44828.53, the Nasdaq Index rose 1.020% to 20601.10, the S&P 500 rose 0.834% to 6279.35, and the Hang Seng Index fell 0.625% to 24069.94. SHIBOR overnight fell 3.663% to 1.32, the US dollar index fell 0.087% to 97.03, and the US dollar against the RMB (CFETS) remained unchanged at 7.16 [2]. - For commodities, COMEX gold fell 0.971% to 3336.00, COMEX silver rose 0.680% to 37.04, LME copper fell 0.584% to 9951.50, etc. [2]. 3.2 Macro News - The Ministry of Commerce has no information on the report of the US President's potential visit with a business delegation, and hopes the US and China can promote healthy and stable development of economic and trade relations [7]. - The US has revoked the requirement for three major chip - design software suppliers to apply for government permission for their business in China [7]. - The State Council will replicate 77 pilot measures of the Shanghai Free - Trade Zone, with 34 measures extended to other free - trade zones and 43 to the whole country [7]. - The US House of Representatives passed Trump's "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill, which will increase the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion and may increase the budget deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade [8]. - China and the EU held the 13th high - level strategic dialogue, and China will ensure normal demand for rare - earth exports from European enterprises [8]. - In June, the Caixin China Services PMI was 50.6, down 0.5 percentage points from May, and the Composite PMI output index rebounded 1.7 percentage points to 51.3 [8]. - From January to May, China's service trade volume was 32543.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%, with exports growing 15.1% and imports growing 2.7% [9]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will address the low - price and disorderly competition in the photovoltaic industry [9]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices in a narrow - range adjustment. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach [11]. - For oils and fats, on June 26, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 57% compared with the previous trading day. About 12% of US soybean - planting areas were affected by drought in the week of June 24, and the palm oil export volume from June 1 - 25 in Malaysia increased [11]. - On July 3, the sugar futures main contract closed at 5767 yuan/ton. The domestic sugar market has good sales data, but international sugar prices are weak. It is recommended to go long with caution [11]. - On July 3, the corn futures main contract closed at 2363 yuan/ton, slightly down. The supply - demand situation is complex, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - The price of live pigs is stable with a slight upward trend. The supply is stable and the demand is improving. The futures main contract is strong [13]. - The price of eggs is stable. The short - term supply exceeds demand, but there are positive expectations in the medium - term. It is recommended to try to go long [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - For caustic soda, the market sentiment has improved, and it is necessary to pay attention to the pressure at 2400 - 2500 yuan/ton [13]. - The price of urea fluctuates slightly. Supply is expected to decrease in July, and demand is increasing. The futures price may continue to fluctuate [13]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - For copper and aluminum, the market macro - sentiment is positive, and a long - position thinking can be adopted after breaking through the pressure level [15]. - For alumina, the cost is expected to decrease slightly, and it is necessary to pay attention to the pressure at the May high [15]. - For steel products, the steel price is firm in the short - term, but the upward trend may slow down [15]. - For ferroalloys, the price rebound may release supply pressure in the long - term. A short - term long and long - term short strategy is recommended [15]. - For coking coal and coke, the coking coal market fluctuates, and coke has a price - increase expectation, but the raw - material support is weakening [15]. - For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to wait and see. If it breaks through the previous high, a small - position long position can be considered [17]. 3.3.4 Option Finance - The stock market is in an upward trend. The main indexes have reached new highs, and the technology and pharmaceutical sectors are performing well. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - buying opportunities of IF, IM, and IC, and adjust positions according to market sentiment [19][21]. - For options, different options have different volume and position changes, and trend investors should focus on defense, while volatility investors can hold long - straddle positions [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The U.S. Congress House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which will raise the federal government's statutory debt ceiling by $5 trillion and may increase the government budget deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade [1]. - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures down 0.71% and COMEX silver futures up 0.85%. The Fed's policy shift expectation and trade tensions support the gold price, but strong non - farm payroll data weakens the safe - haven demand [1]. - For major varieties, methanol is short - term bullish, glass is in a inventory - digestion cycle, and gold has long - term support but is hesitant to rise at high prices [2][3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Main News Focus International News - The U.S. Department of Commerce revoked the requirement for three major global chip design software suppliers to apply for government licenses for their business in China. Siemens fully restored Chinese customers' access to its software and technology, while Synopsys and Cadence are gradually restarting related services [5]. Domestic News - China and the EU held the 13th round of high - level strategic dialogue. Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that China and the EU should strengthen exchanges and cooperation. He also responded to the issue of China's rare - earth export control, stating that it should not be a problem between China and the EU [6]. Industry News - The State Council issued a document to replicate and promote 77 pilot measures of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, including 34 measures for other free trade zones and 43 measures for the whole country [7]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.83%, the European STOXX 50 rose 0.28%, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.98%, and the U.S. dollar index rose 0.35%. ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.43%, London gold spot fell 0.92%, and London silver rose 0.77%. Other commodities also had different price changes [9]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The U.S. three major indexes rose. The previous trading day, the stock index rebounded. The electronic sector led the rise, and the coal sector led the decline. The market turnover was 1.33 trillion yuan. It is recommended to be bullish on stock index futures and buy options on stock index options. A - shares have high investment value in the long - term [10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds showed mixed performance. The central bank's open - market operations at the beginning of the month were mainly net withdrawals, and the market liquidity was relatively loose. The U.S. economic data and policy changes affected the U.S. bond yield. The domestic economic situation supported the Treasury bond futures price [11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices fell slightly at night. The uncertainty of tariffs and the end of the 90 - day tariff suspension on July 9th raised concerns about economic impact and fuel demand. The U.S. labor market was healthy, and the number of U.S. online drilling oil wells decreased [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 0.88%. The average operating load of domestic coal - to - olefin (methanol) plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory increased. It is short - term bullish [2][14]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber futures fluctuated. The new rubber supply in producing areas was affected by weather, and the raw rubber price was supported. The inventory in Qingdao area fluctuated, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins traded in a narrow range. The consumption of polyolefins entered the off - season, and the cost support weakened. It is necessary to focus on the supply contraction effect during the summer device maintenance [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures did not continue the rebound, and the inventory decreased slightly. Soda ash futures fell, and the inventory increased. Both are in the inventory - digestion cycle, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand balance [17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metal prices fell. The better - than - expected U.S. non - farm employment data reduced the Fed's early - rate - cut expectation. Gold has long - term support but is hesitant to rise at high prices. Attention should be paid to policy uncertainties [18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices closed lower at night. The low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices tested smelting output. The domestic downstream demand was stable overall, and copper prices may fluctuate in a range [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices closed higher at night. The concentrate processing fees continued to rise. The domestic demand showed mixed performance, and zinc prices may fluctuate widely [20]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed down 0.17% at night. The Fed's easing expectation boosted the non - ferrous sector. The alumina market was in a complex situation, and the aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly. Shanghai aluminum may oscillate at a high level [21]. - **Nickel**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed up 0.86% at night. The nickel ore supply in Indonesia was tight, and the price of Philippine nickel ore rose. The nickel market had both bullish and bearish factors, and nickel prices may oscillate [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium ore price showed signs of stopping falling. The weekly output of lithium carbonate increased, and the inventory also increased. The lithium market is still in a weak situation [23][24]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore was supported by the strong production momentum of steel mills. The global iron ore shipment decreased recently, and the port inventory decreased rapidly. Iron ore prices may be supported in the short - term and weaken in the later period [25]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel gradually emerged, and the inventory continued to decrease. The steel export was affected by tariffs and anti - dumping, and the demand for both building materials and plates may weaken in the later period. The steel market may be in a weak and oscillating state [26]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Soybean and rapeseed meal futures rose at night. The U.S. soybean growth data was mixed, and the domestic oil - mill operation rate increased, which may lead to an increase in soybean meal inventory [27]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil futures were strongly oscillating at night, while soybean and rapeseed oil futures fell slightly. The Malaysian palm oil inventory, production, and export data showed different trends, and the oils and fats may continue to oscillate [28]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index oscillated, and the 08 contract rose 0.11%. The market's pessimistic expectation about the peak season of European routes was repaired, and the freight rate may be stable in the later period. Attention should be paid to the shipping companies' price - increase notices and macro - tariff factors [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - The A-share market showed an oscillating rebound with sector rotation. The four major stock index futures contracts rose, but the basis discount widened. Considering the improvement in the macro situation and the index breaking through the upper limit of the short-term oscillation range, there is a need to be vigilant about the risk of chasing high prices [2][3]. - The government bond futures market was narrowly oscillating, with most varieties slightly rising. Given the loose capital situation, the overall sentiment of bond futures is strong, but there is a lack of momentum to break through previous highs in the short term [5][6]. - The precious metals market saw a divergence in the trends of gold and silver. The strong resilience of the labor market reduced the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in July. The "Big and Beautiful" bill may stimulate economic growth, and the US dollar index showed signs of stopping its decline and rebounding [8][9]. - The container shipping futures market is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillation in the short term before the August quotes are released [11][12]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper prices are expected to remain strong in the short term; alumina is expected to be weakly oscillating; aluminum is expected to be in a wide - range high - level oscillation; zinc is expected to be oscillating in the short term and bearish in the medium - to - long term; tin is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term; nickel and stainless steel are expected to be oscillating within a certain range; and lithium carbonate is expected to be oscillating in the short term [13][18][23][26][30][32][35][36]. - In the ferrous metals market, steel prices are strengthening due to better - than - expected off - season demand and improved market sentiment; iron ore is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term and bearish in the medium - to - long term; coking coal and coke are expected to be oscillating, with suggestions for hedging and speculative trading [40][43][44][48]. - In the agricultural products market, soybean meal is in the process of bottom - grinding in the short term; the spot price of live pigs is oscillating strongly; corn is oscillating narrowly, and the price is expected to rise in the medium term; sugar is expected to be bearish after a rebound [50][54][57][59]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, the major A - share indexes rebounded. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.17%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.90%. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose, but the basis discount widened [2][3]. - **News**: The June Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index declined. Overseas, Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, and the US lifted restrictions on the export of chip design software to China [3]. - **Capital**: On July 3, the A - share trading volume decreased slightly. The central bank conducted 572 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 452.1 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Be vigilant about the risk of chasing high prices. Consider lightly shorting MO options with an exercise price of 5900 in August - September [4]. Government Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Government bond futures closed mostly higher. The 30 - year contract fell 0.02%, the 10 - year contract was flat, the 5 - year contract rose 0.01%, and the 2 - year contract rose 0.01%. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market mostly declined [5]. - **Capital**: The central bank conducted 572 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 452.1 billion yuan. The capital situation is loose, but there may be disturbances in July [5][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: In the short term, consider appropriately allocating long positions on dips and taking profits when approaching previous highs. Pay attention to economic data and capital trends. Consider positive arbitrage strategies and steepening the yield curve [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: The US non - farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, reducing the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates. The "Big and Beautiful" bill was passed. Gold prices fell, while silver prices rose [8][9]. - **Future Outlook**: Gold is expected to rise in the long term, with short - term price oscillations between $3300 - $3400. Silver is expected to oscillate between $36 - $37 in the short term. Consider selling out - of - the - money gold options [9][10]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures (EC) - **Spot Quotes**: As of July 4, the quotes of major shipping companies are provided. - **Index**: As of June 30, the SCFIS European line index rose 10% month - on - month, and the US West line index fell 22% [11]. - **Fundamentals**: As of July 1, the global container shipping capacity increased by 8% year - on - year. The PMI data of the eurozone and the US are provided [11]. - **Logic**: The futures market rose slightly, and it is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillation in the short term [12]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The EC08 main contract is expected to oscillate between 1800 - 2000 [12]. Financial Derivatives - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of July 3, copper prices were high, suppressing downstream demand [13]. - **Macro**: The COMEX - LME spread widened. The market underestimated the possibility of tariffs, and copper prices are unlikely to weaken before the end of the US copper restocking [13]. - **Supply**: The TC of copper concentrate is low, and the supply is tight. In June, the domestic electrolytic copper production decreased slightly, and it is expected to increase in July [14][15]. - **Demand**: The short - term domestic demand is resilient, but the "rush to export" demand may overdraw future demand [15]. - **Inventory**: COMEX inventory is accumulating, while domestic inventory is slightly decreasing [16]. - **Logic**: The macro environment and fundamentals support copper prices. The price is expected to be strong in the short term [16]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 80000 - 82000 [17]. Alumina - **Spot**: As of July 3, the prices in different regions showed different trends [17]. - **Supply**: In June, the domestic alumina production increased, and the operating capacity recovered [17]. - **Inventory**: As of July 3, the port inventory increased [18]. - **Logic**: The price rose due to news from Guinea, but the fundamentals remain unchanged, with a slight oversupply. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [18]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 2750 - 3100. Consider shorting on rallies in the medium term [18]. Aluminum - **Spot**: As of July 3, the price increased, and the premium decreased [18]. - **Supply**: In June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased slightly. The aluminum - water ratio is expected to decline in July [19][20]. - **Demand**: Downstream industries are in the off - season, and the开工 rates of various sectors are decreasing [20]. - **Inventory**: The domestic inventory is increasing slightly, and the LME inventory is unchanged [20]. - **Logic**: The market is oscillating at a high level. The macro environment and low inventory support prices, but the off - season demand restricts the upside [21]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 20000 - 20800 [21]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: As of July 3, the prices remained unchanged [21]. - **Supply**: In May, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased. The industry is in the off - season, and the decline in June is expected to be limited [22]. - **Demand**: In May, the demand was weak, and the order volume decreased at home and abroad [22]. - **Inventory**: As of July 3, the social inventory increased [22]. - **Logic**: It is expected to be weakly oscillating, mainly paying attention to the supply of scrap aluminum and import changes [23]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 19200 - 20000 [23]. Zinc - **Spot**: As of July 3, the price increased, and the downstream purchasing sentiment was weak [23]. - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose. In June, the domestic refined zinc production increased, and it is expected to continue to increase in July [24][25]. - **Demand**: The premium showed different trends in different regions. The开工 rates of primary processing industries decreased, and the demand is expected to remain weak [25]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory is accumulating, and the LME inventory is slightly decreasing [26]. - **Logic**: The supply of zinc ore is loose, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be oscillating in the short term and bearish in the medium - to - long term [26]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 21500 - 23000 [26]. Tin - **Spot**: As of July 3, the price remained unchanged, and the downstream demand was weak [26]. - **Supply**: In May, the domestic tin ore and tin ingot imports increased, mainly from African countries [27]. - **Demand and Inventory**: In May, the solder paste开工 rate decreased. As of July 3, the LME inventory decreased, the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased, and the social inventory increased [28]. - **Logic**: The supply is tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. The price is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term and bearish based on inventory and import data [29][30]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term. Consider shorting on rallies based on inventory and import data [30]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of July 3, the price increased [30]. - **Supply**: In June, the refined nickel production decreased slightly, and it is expected to increase in July [30]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloys is stable, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak [31]. - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory is high, and the domestic social inventory is slightly decreasing [31]. - **Logic**: The macro environment drives the price up, but the industrial overcapacity restricts the upside. It is expected to be oscillating in the short term [32]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 118000 - 124000 [32]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of July 3, the price remained unchanged [33]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore is expected to decline, and the price of nickel iron is weak [33][35]. - **Supply**: In June, the domestic stainless steel production decreased slightly, and the 300 - series production increased slightly [33][34]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is decreasing slowly, and the warehouse receipts decreased [34]. - **Logic**: The macro environment improves the trading sentiment, but the fundamentals remain under pressure. It is expected to be oscillating in the short term [35]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 12500 - 13000 [36]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of July 3, the price of lithium carbonate increased, and the price of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly [36]. - **Supply**: In June, the production increased, and it is expected to continue to increase in July. The weekly production decreased slightly [37]. - **Demand**: The demand is stable, but it is difficult to increase significantly in the off - season [37][39]. - **Inventory**: The inventory is at a high level and is accumulating [38][39]. - **Logic**: The short - term fundamentals are under pressure, and the price is expected to be oscillating between 60,000 - 65,000 [39][40]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 60,000 - 65,000 [40]. Financial Derivatives - Ferrous Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price followed the futures price, and the basis of rebar strengthened while that of hot - rolled coil weakened [40]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly from the high level, with a more significant decline in rebar [40]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for the five major steel products remained stable at a high level, and the inventory was low [41]. - **View**: Steel prices are strengthening due to better - than - expected off - season demand and improved market sentiment. The hot - rolled coil main contract is expected to oscillate between 3150 - 3300, and the rebar is expected to oscillate between 3050 - 3150 [41]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: The prices of mainstream iron ore powders increased [42]. - **Futures**: The iron ore futures rose [42]. - **Basis**: The basis of different iron ore varieties is provided [42]. - **Demand**: The daily pig iron production decreased, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased [42]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment decreased, and the arrival volume at ports decreased [42][43]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill's imported iron ore inventory increased [43]. - **View**: It is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term and bearish in the medium - to - long term. Consider going long on dips, with the range of 700 - 750 [43]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The futures price rose, and the spot price was strong [44]. - **Supply**: The production of coking coal is expected to increase, and the import situation is complex [45][47]. - **Demand**: The demand for coking coal decreased slightly, but the downstream replenishment increased [45][46][47]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory is at a medium level [46]. - **View**: Consider hedging the 2601 contract on rallies, and going long on dips for the 2509 contract or conducting long coking coal - short coke arbitrage [47]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The futures price rose, and the spot price was stable. The fourth price cut was implemented [48][49]. - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke is negative in most regions [48]. - **Supply**: The production of coke decreased slightly [48]. - **Demand**: The demand for coke decreased slightly [49]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of coking plants decreased, the port inventory decreased, and the steel mill's inventory increased [49]. - **View**: Consider hedging the 2601 contract on rallies, and going long on dips for the 2509 contract or conducting long coking coal - short coke arbitrage [49]. Financial Derivatives - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: The price of soybean meal increased in some regions, and the trading volume decreased. The price of rapeseed meal increased, and the trading volume was zero [50][51]. - **Fundamentals**: The US Senate's new tax bill is beneficial to US soybean and corn growers. The export sales of US soybeans are expected to increase [51][52]. - **Outlook**: The US soybean price has strengthened support, and the domestic soybean meal is in the process of bottom - grinding in the short term [53]. Live Pigs - **Spot**: The spot price is oscillating strongly [54]. - **Market Data**: The breeding profit has increased, the secondary fattening inventory has increased, and the average slaughter weight has increased [54][55]. - **Outlook**: The short - term sentiment is strong, but there is pressure above the 09 contract [56]. Corn - **Spot Price**: The prices in different regions are stable [57]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory data in different regions and sectors are provided, and the import auction is ongoing [57][58]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be stable in the short term, with support in the medium term. Pay attention to the policy auction [58]. Sugar - **Analysis**: The international raw sugar price is oscillating weakly, and the domestic price is oscillating at the bottom. The domestic market is expected to be bullish in the short term and bearish after the rebound [59]. - **Fundamentals**: The sugar production in Brazil increased, and the sugar production in Thailand is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season [59][60].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the recent consensus reached between China and the U.S. regarding the framework details of the London talks, highlighting the mutual agreement to lift certain export restrictions and the importance of dialogue and cooperation [1][2]. - Following the London economic talks, both sides confirmed the implementation of key agreements from the June 5 call between their leaders, with China approving export licenses for eligible controlled items and the U.S. taking corresponding actions to lift restrictions [1][2]. - Siemens announced the full restoration of access for Chinese customers to its software and technology, while Synopsys and Cadence are gradually resuming related services [2]. Group 2 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce expressed hope that the U.S. would recognize the mutually beneficial nature of Sino-U.S. economic relations and correct its previous mistakes to maintain and implement the important consensus reached by the two leaders [1]. - The Ministry of Commerce reiterated its consistent and clear stance on enhancing cooperation and reducing misunderstandings under the strategic guidance of the two leaders [2].

Group 1: EDA Software Market and Regulations - The U.S. Department of Commerce has lifted the requirement for Synopsys, Cadence, and Siemens to apply for government licenses when conducting business in China, following a previous ban imposed on May 23, 2025 [1] - By 2024, the global market shares for these EDA companies are projected to be 31%, 30%, and 13% respectively [1] - The lifting of the ban is linked to a framework established on June 27, 2025, where China agreed to review export applications for controlled items, leading to the U.S. canceling corresponding restrictions [1] Group 2: Rare Earth Elements and Strategic Importance - Rare earth elements consist of 17 metals and are crucial for over 200 commercial, high-tech, and military products, with China dominating the heavy rare earth separation sector [3][5] - China controls approximately 80% of the global rare earth refining capacity and produces 99% of the world's heavy rare earth elements [5] - The strategic value of rare earths has led China to implement export controls on key materials, which are essential for various industries [3][5] Group 3: U.S. Rare Earth Supply Chain Challenges - The U.S. has historically relied on outsourcing for rare earth production, leading to a significant dependency on China [6][7] - Recent U.S. initiatives aim to rebuild the domestic rare earth supply chain, with an estimated cost in the thousands of billions [7] - The U.S. Department of Defense has set a goal to establish a domestic supply chain for rare earths by 2027, covering all critical nodes from mining to magnet manufacturing [7] Group 4: Global Competition and Alternatives - Countries are investing resources to find alternatives to Chinese rare earths, but the transition will take years [9] - The EU has announced new mineral projects to diversify raw material sources, including rare earths, but faces environmental concerns and lengthy approval processes [9] - The trend of nationalizing key mineral resources is emerging in South America and Africa, as governments seek to maintain control over their mineral wealth [9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market due to measures such as anti - involution, capital market reforms, and the improvement of the A - share market's attractiveness [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - On Thursday, the major indexes of the two markets fluctuated slightly upward. The CSI 1000 index closed at 6342 points, up 33 points or 0.53%; the CSI 500 index closed at 5922 points, up 29 points or 0.50%; the SSE 50 index closed at 2724 points, up 2 points or 0.07%; the CSI 300 index closed at 3968 points, up 24 points or 0.62%. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.30 trillion yuan, showing a slight contraction. The top - rising ETFs were 5GETF, Innovation Pharmaceutical ETF Cathay, etc., while the top - falling ones were Energy ETF, Oil and Gas Resources ETF, etc. The top - rising sector indexes were consumer electronics, components, etc., and the top - falling ones were marine economy, coal mining, etc. The margin funds of CSI 1000, CSI 500, and CSI 300 index futures had net inflows of 100 million, 50 million, and 20 million yuan respectively [1]. Important Information - The CSRC meeting proposed to optimize capital market mechanisms and promote a new round of comprehensive in - depth capital market reforms. The 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission initiated anti - involution and capacity - reduction actions in industries such as photovoltaic, steel, and cement. In June 2025, the number of new A - share accounts reached 1.65 million, with a cumulative total of 12.6 million in the first half of the year. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology planned to regulate the photovoltaic industry's low - price competition. The US Department of Commerce revoked the requirement for three major chip design software suppliers to apply for a license for their business in China. The US added 147,000 non - farm jobs in June, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. In May, the unit price of Japanese automobile exports to the US dropped by about 20% year - on - year. There were different views on the impact of stablecoins on US Treasury bond demand. Some institutions believed that US stocks were the best investment choice, and the US employment data was mixed [1][2]. Market Logic - The anti - involution actions boosted listed companies' performance, and the capital market played a multi - level role in promoting consumption through a closed - loop policy design [2]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to trend upward. Factors include capital market reforms, anti - involution and capacity - reduction actions, the recovery of new account openings in the A - share market, the revocation of restrictions on chip design software suppliers' business in China, the potential inflow of international funds into the A - share market, and the governance of low - price competition in enterprises [2]. Trading Strategy - For stock index futures, go long on the four major stock index futures contracts. For stock index options, buy out - of - the - money long - term call options [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector is (Bullish) [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economy maintains an upward trend. The US labor market is strong, with better - than - expected non - farm payrolls in June, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September. China's economic indicators such as the PMI production index and new order index are expanding, and the comprehensive rectification of involution - style competition boosts listed company performance. The European Central Bank has cut interest rates 8 times, and Germany's military expansion promotes the recovery of European manufacturing. China may take the lead in the "robot race" [1] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Important Information - The US has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, and all Vietnamese goods exported to the US will face at least a 20% tariff and "fully open the market" to the US [1] - In June, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, far exceeding the expected 106,000, and the non - farm payrolls in April and May were revised up by a total of 16,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% [1] - BlackRock believes that due to the strong profit growth driven by AI, US stocks are still the best investment choice and are expected to outperform European stocks again. In the context of inflation concerns and increasing debt burdens, US Treasuries will perform worse than US stocks [1] - The US Department of Commerce has revoked the requirement for three major global chip design software suppliers to apply for government licenses for their business in China [1] - The London copper price has climbed close to this year's highest level, and the overnight spread of copper prices jumped to a premium of nearly $100 per ton last week, the largest gap since 2021. Analysts warn of a possible "short squeeze" [1] - The European Commission has proposed a revision to the European Climate Law, aiming to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% compared to 1990 levels by 2040 [1] - In May, the unit price of Japanese automobile exports to the US dropped by about 20% year - on - year, while the export volume only decreased by 3.9%, indicating that Japan maintained shipments and market share through significant price cuts but suffered a heavy blow to profits [1] - Citi believes that whether stablecoins substantially drive the demand for US Treasuries depends on the source of funds. If newly issued stablecoins come from the transfer of existing bank deposits or money market funds, there will be no net new demand for US Treasuries [1] Global Economic Logic - The strong US non - farm payroll data in June shows a robust labor market. The market anticipates a Fed rate cut in September. The US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52.0, continuing to expand. China's PMI production index and new order index are expanding, and the rectification of involution - style competition boosts corporate performance. The European Central Bank's 8 interest - rate cuts and Germany's 30% military expansion drive the recovery of European manufacturing. China may lead in the "robot race" [1]