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金价预测:黄金/美元买家对中东紧张局势加剧保持乐观
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-19 09:55
Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are attempting to rebound from a weekly low of $3,360 amid rising demand for the US dollar due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Reports suggest the US may attack Iran this weekend, increasing demand for the dollar and impacting gold prices [2]. - Gold prices broke the critical support level of $3,377 but found new buyers near the weekly low of $3,363 due to renewed interest in safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions [2][4]. - The Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate at 4.25%-4.5%, aligning with expectations, while keeping forecasts for two rate cuts this year unchanged [2][3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The bullish bias for gold remains intact, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) above the midline, currently close to 55 [9]. - Gold needs to reclaim the $3,377 resistance level on a sustained basis to initiate a new upward trend, with the next significant resistance at $3,400 and static resistance at $3,440 [9]. - Immediate downside support is at the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $3,348, with further support at the 50-day SMA of $3,308 [11][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming "June Festival" holiday in the US may lead to liquidity shortages, potentially exaggerating gold price volatility [5]. - Traders will closely monitor developments in the Middle East conflict for new trading signals regarding gold prices [6].
刚刚!美国,透露最新作战计划!
券商中国· 2025-06-19 04:36
特朗普的最新计划 伊以冲突的最大变数,即是美国! 在以色列导弹库存告急之际,美军是否下场成了最大变数。美国彭博社6月19日援引知情人士消息报道称,美 国高级官员正在为未来几天可能对伊朗发动的打击做准备。一些知情人士表示,存在本周末实施打击的潜在计 划。 据美国《华尔街日报》18日报道,根据白宫消息,美国总统特朗普将于美东时间周四(19日)上午11:30在白宫战 情室听取情报简报。 此外, 特朗普两天内第二次在白宫战情室与国家安全团队会面,考虑是否在伊朗与以色列持续冲突的情况下 下令对伊朗进行军事打击。特朗普向助手施压,询问轰炸伊朗的掩体计划是否有效。 与此同时,撤离也在紧锣密鼓地进行当中。澳大利亚外交部长黄英贤今日在堪培拉表示,在中东局势"日益危 险"的背景下,澳大利亚正致力于通过陆路将一小批难民撤出以色列,并希望在未来24小时内撤出更多难民。 当地时间6月18日,美国驻以色列大使表示,美国驻以色列大使馆正在为美国公民安排撤离以色列的航班和邮 轮,美使馆人员也已开始通过各种方式离开以色列。中国已成功组织791名中国公民从伊朗撤离,另有1000多 人正在撤离途中。 战争最明确的信号就是撤侨。 彭博社称,有知情人 ...
民调:超七成美国民众认同伊朗对美构成威胁
news flash· 2025-06-19 00:21
民调:超七成美国民众认同伊朗对美构成威胁 金十数据6月19日讯,据福克斯新闻最新民调,随着中东冲突升级,美国选民对以色列打击伊朗核设施的决定意见分歧,但普遍 认同伊朗是国家安全威胁,且海外局势将影响美国本土生活。73%的登记选民认为伊朗对美构成实质威胁,较六年前(上次提 出该问题时)上升13个百分点。大多数民主党人(69%)、共和党人(82%)和独立人士(62%)认为伊朗构成了真正的风险, 较2019年分别上升12%、17%和4%。本周三发布的最新民调正值特朗普要求伊朗"无条件投降"之际。调查显示,选民对以色列 打击伊朗核计划的决定呈两极分化:49%表示支持,46%反对。共和党支持者(73%)的比例是民主党(32%)和无党派人士 (32%)的两倍以上。 ...
美国原油短线走低,特朗普称不希望美国下场中东局势
news flash· 2025-06-18 19:29
WTI原油期货跌超0.2%。 美国总统特朗普称:我不希望参与中东局势。 目标是尽快结束中东冲突。 与伊朗对话的大门还没有关闭。 近日,Tucker Carlson打电话给我,就中东观点向我道歉。 ...
美联储主席鲍威尔:未来中东冲突可能导致能源价格上涨。
news flash· 2025-06-18 19:16
Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that future conflicts in the Middle East could lead to an increase in energy prices [1] Group 1 - The potential for rising energy prices is linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1]
俄罗斯外交部:俄罗斯与美国就中东冲突保持联系。
news flash· 2025-06-18 12:08
俄罗斯外交部:俄罗斯与美国就中东冲突保持联系。 ...
大越期货贵金属早报-20250618
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 08:14
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年6月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号: F3051846 投资咨询证号: Z0015764 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面:特朗普引发中东冲突升级担忧,金价先下后上;美国三大股指全线收 跌,欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌;美元指数涨0.69%报98.8,离岸人民币对美元小幅 贬值报7.1923;美债收益率集体下跌,10年期美债收益率跌6.92个基点报4.377%; COMEX黄金期货跌0.32%报3406.50美元/盎司;中性 6、预期:今日关注2025陆家嘴论坛、美联储利率决议,美国5月新屋开工和营建许 可、英国5月CPI、欧央行官员密集讲话。特朗普引发中东冲突升级担忧,金价再度 先下后上但依旧收跌。沪金溢价收敛至0元/ ...
转债周周谈|估值蓄力,坚守主线
2025-06-18 00:54
Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The A-share market experienced a slight pullback after a rebound in April, influenced by accelerated theme rotation, the realization of expectations from China-US trade negotiations, and concerns over tariff uncertainties [1][2] - The Middle East conflict has a minimal substantive impact on the Chinese stock market, primarily causing emotional shocks, as China's diversified energy supply reduces reliance on Middle Eastern oil [1][4] Key Points on Market Dynamics - The current equity market lacks a clear main line, with innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumption sectors performing well, while technology sectors are experiencing frequent rotations [1][5] - The valuation levels are above the median of the past decade, indicating a need for market adjustments due to the crowded trades in previously high-performing stocks [1][5] - The convertible bond market has seen a slight decline in prices and valuations since early April, improving cost-effectiveness for investors [1][6] Future Market Outlook - The medium to long-term outlook for the equity market in 2025 remains positive, supported by capital market policies and monetary easing, which are expected to attract incremental funds [1][7] - Short-term adjustments are anticipated due to limited marginal benefits and the cautious sentiment of investors entering the earnings forecast window [1][7] Sector-Specific Insights - The recovery of military orders in 2025 is expected to significantly boost industry demand, with the banking sector showing strategic allocation value due to its high dividend and low volatility characteristics [3][8] - The banking convertible bond market is undergoing a large-scale exit, with a focus on short-term bonds with high yields as replacements [3][9] Investment Recommendations - In the new consumption sector, attention is drawn to relatively low-priced stocks with potential for price adjustments, such as Pop Mart and related trends [10] - Other sectors worth considering for stable cash flow and profitability include public utilities and agriculture, with specific recommendations for companies like Xinao and Sanxia Energy [11] - In the military sector, companies like Guokong and Ziguang Guomi are highlighted as having high investment potential due to the rapid growth of orders [12][14] Risk Considerations - The downgrade of Hengtai's credit rating is attributed to reduced asset scale and revenue, along with significant losses in the previous year, although no substantial risks are identified from a bond perspective [15]
英国前大使:以色列可能挑动美国卷入与伊朗的战争
news flash· 2025-06-17 05:50
Core Viewpoint - The former UK ambassador suggests that Israel may provoke the United States into direct military involvement in a conflict with Iran, indicating a potential escalation in the Middle East tensions [1] Group 1: Conflict Dynamics - The current events are described as the "second round" of conflict, following an inconclusive first round a year ago [1] - The ongoing leadership of Netanyahu is seen as a factor that will perpetuate the conflict with Iran [1] Group 2: Diplomatic Outlook - The likelihood of reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran is perceived to be low and is expected to continue decreasing [1]
6月17日白银早评:美国总统特朗普三线开战 现货白银在36美元上方小幅波动
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-17 01:28
Group 1 - The US dollar index is trading around 98.28, while spot silver opened at $36.34/oz and is currently around $36.21/oz, indicating a slight decline [1] - Market focus this week includes retail sales, import and export prices, industrial and manufacturing production, commercial inventories, NAHB housing market index, and API weekly report on US crude oil supply [1] - Last week, the dollar index remained flat at 0.00%, closing at 98.14, while spot silver closed at $36.30/oz, up 0.03% [1] Group 2 - The "Nimitz" aircraft carrier is heading to the Middle East, with a significant number of refueling aircraft moving to Europe, providing options for President Trump [2] - Reports indicate that Iran is seeking talks with the US and Israel to end hostilities, while Netanyahu does not rule out the possibility of assassinating Khamenei [2] - Trump stated that Iran wants to reach an agreement and criticized Iran's refusal to sign an agreement with Israel as foolish [2] Group 3 - Market participants remain cautious regarding Middle Eastern conflicts and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, leading to a slight pullback in gold prices below $3,400 per ounce [3] - Silver prices are fluctuating slightly above the $36.00 per ounce mark following a minor correction last Friday [3] Group 4 - Upcoming events include the announcement of domestic refined oil price adjustments and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [4] - The IEA will release its monthly oil market report, and Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index for June will be published [4][5]