Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in tariffs between China and the United States reflect a significant reduction in bilateral trade barriers, which is expected to benefit producers and consumers in both countries, as well as contribute positively to global economic stability [2][4]. Tariff Adjustments - Starting from May 14, 2025, China has reduced the tariff rate on U.S. imports from 34% to 10%, while suspending the implementation of an additional 24% tariff for 90 days [1]. - The U.S. has canceled 91% of its previously imposed tariffs, and both countries have agreed to suspend the implementation of 24% "reciprocal tariffs" [3][4]. Economic Implications - The substantial reduction in tariffs is seen as a step towards correcting unilateral tariff increases and enhancing mutually beneficial cooperation between the two nations [4]. - The adjustments are anticipated to inject more certainty and stability into the global economy, aligning with the interests of both countries [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement of the US-China Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement indicates a commitment to reduce tariffs imposed since April 2025 to 10%, with a 90-day suspension on the remaining 24% tariffs, although tariffs on certain Chinese imports from the US remain unchanged [1][2]. Tariff Changes and Impact - The tariffs on US imports, particularly on coal, LNG, crude oil, and agricultural products, will continue to apply at rates of 10%-15% for China [1]. - As of 2024, China imported approximately 60 billion yuan worth of US crude oil and LNG, with US crude oil accounting for only 1.74% of China's total crude oil imports [2]. - The imposition of tariffs has led to a significant reduction in China's imports of US energy products, with a year-on-year decline of 54%, 76%, and 70% in the first three months of 2024 for crude oil [2]. Market Dynamics - The attractiveness of US crude oil has diminished for Chinese buyers due to the 20% tariff, as global price differences among various crude oil types are minimal [2]. - Chinese buyers are currently in a wait-and-see mode regarding US LNG imports, despite the competitive pricing of US natural gas [3][4]. - The anticipated increase in pipeline gas imports from Russia and the acceleration of domestic gas storage and LNG receiving station construction in China are expected to fill the gap left by reduced US imports [4]. Economic Outlook - The mutual tariff reduction between the US and China is expected to positively impact the international oil and gas market, improving global economic prospects and market sentiment [4].

关税阶段性落地，机械出口链如何表现？20250513 摘要 • 中美关税调整后，机械设备总税率仍较高，但部分企业如浙江鼎力通过申 诉和成本控制，实际税率上涨幅度较小，预计能维持利润率，且客户需求 稳定。 • 凌霄泵业和春风等其他中国产能企业，可将新增关税顺价传导至下游市场， 保持成本优势，纺织品、轻工玩具等低附加值产品也可适度涨价规避关税 影响。 • 卡特彼勒认为北美需求仍有支撑，订单堆积导致交货期延长，浙江鼎力有 望继续在美国市场突破，实现收入和利润增长。 • 杰克股份受益于海外分散产能，全球贸易关税谈判带来的市场信心提升， 使其海外产能有效，并能向下游传导价格，增强盈利能力。 • 巨星、永达和杰昌等公司，以及叉车和工程机械类公司，有望受益于美国 市场需求改善和国内需求稳定，盈利空间扩大。 • 全球关税环境对出口链公司的影响主要体现在预期修正，平均关税若仅为 10%，对消费者购买力影响有限，出口链公司需求扰动或低于预期。 • 中美不脱钩对制造业整体国内需求带来预期修正，偏消费类产品订单可能 回升，推动行业企稳向上，龙头企业有望获得超额收益。 卡特彼勒认为今年北美需求仍然有支撑，但并不是因为新签订单不下滑，而 ...

Group 1: Tariff Changes - The cumulative tariff imposed by the US on Chinese goods in 2025 is 30%[1] - As of April 2, 2025, the US increased tariffs on Chinese goods by 34%, with 24% of that suspended for the initial 90 days[1] - The average tariff level in the US rose from 3.3% to 13.3%, surpassing Brazil (11.2%), China (7.5%), the EU (5%), and Vietnam (9.4%)[1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the joint statement on May 12, 2025, domestic equity markets reacted positively, with major indices like Wind All A, Hang Seng Index, and FTSE China A50 rising by 1.30%, 2.98%, and 0.88% respectively[6] - The 10-year government bond futures fell by 0.46% after the announcement[6] - The US dollar index strengthened significantly, while the Japanese yen, euro, and British pound depreciated against the dollar; however, the Chinese yuan appreciated against the dollar[6] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - The joint statement is expected to enhance market investors' risk appetite, potentially benefiting the domestic equity market in the future[6] - There are risks associated with the US tariff actions, including increased inflation expectations and a higher probability of economic recession in the US[7]

5月13日，港股全天表现低迷，三大指数呈现低开低走行情，尤其是恒生科技指数大跌3.26%，恒生指数、国企指数分别下跌1.87%及2.02%，恒指更是止步8 连涨。 昨日中美关税削减重大利好，未能持续推动市场上行。 | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 恒生指数 800000 | min | 23108.27 | -441.19 | -1.87% | | 国企指数 800100 | min | 8386.21 | -173.02 | -2.02% | | 恒生科技指数 800700 | min | 5269.66 | -177.69 | -3.26% | 盘面上，作为市场风向标的大型科技股集体走低，昨日受关税影响而大涨的苹果概念股、汽车股、半导体芯片股跌幅较为明显；中资券商股、军工股、手游 股、体育用品股、保险股、电信股、家电股纷纷走低。另一方面，机构对黄金长期展望乐观，黄金股再度活跃，生物医药股集体反弹，海运股、内银股多数 上涨。 具体来看： 科技股低迷，美团、快手跌超4%，阿里、小米跌超3%，腾讯、京东、百度纷纷跟跌。消 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Goldtrust Futures Daily, written by the Goldtrust Futures Research Institute on May 13, 2025 [1] Group 2: Caustic Soda Market - From May 5th to 12th, 2025, the caustic soda price rose from 807 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 829 yuan/ton at the weekend, a significant increase of 2.73% and 4.94% compared to the same period last year [3] - The price increase is due to supply - demand factors (supply decreased due to enterprise maintenance, and demand was stable as downstream aluminum plants had high profits and high - load production) and macro factors (US tariff adjustments after the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks) [3][4] Group 3: Stock Index Futures - A50 rose sharply and the Hong Kong stock market soared. Technically, it remains strongly bullish in the short - term, and the trend continuation is favorable [7] - On Monday, the three major A - share indexes rose significantly due to the expected benefits of Sino - US negotiations, and the post - market joint statement of the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks was positive [8] Group 4: Gold Market - Affected by the Sino - US tariff negotiations, gold adjusted further. The outer - market gold neared the low point, and Shanghai gold broke below the pre - holiday low. However, the overall pattern is still oscillatory, and it is expected that the downward adjustment space is limited, with strong support for Shanghai gold between 750 - 760 [10][11] Group 5: Iron Ore Market - In May, there is a large pressure of supply surplus due to reduced downstream exports and increased shipments, and domestic demand is about to enter the seasonal off - season, increasing the risk of high iron ore valuations. But the market sentiment has turned positive due to the Sino - US economic and trade talks. Technically, it strengthened in oscillation today, with a large bullish candle on the daily chart, and the short - term thinking turns to oscillatory and bullish [14] Group 6: Glass Market - The continuous release of demand still awaits the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements. The Sino - US economic and trade talks brought significant positive news, changing the market sentiment. Technically, it rebounded slightly today, and the short - term thinking turns to oscillatory [17] Group 7: Soybean No.1 Market - The tight supply situation of imported soybeans has been rapidly alleviated, increasing the overall selling pressure in the soybean market. The premium transaction of local - reserve soybeans provides some support for the anti - decline of the soybean No.1 futures market. Profit - taking funds are leaving the market, the position has been continuously decreasing, and technically, it shows signs of a phased peak [20]

中美关税时间线全梳理 金十数据5月12日讯，当地时间5月12日，中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布，双方大幅降低双边关税水平，这一举措符合两国 生产者和消费者的期待，也符合两国利益和世界共同利益。 (玉渊谭天) 看 :[美关税时间线 北京时间 5月12日 中美联合声明 美方取消了共91%的 加征关税; 美方暂停实施24%的 "对等关税" 中方相应取消了91% 的反制关税 中方相应暂停实施24% 的反制关税 北京时间 4月11日 中方宣布对美国输华商品加征 关税由 84%提高至125% 美东时间 4月9日 美方宣布对中国输美商品加征关税 曲 84%提高至125% 美东时间 4月8日 美方将此前宣布对中国输美产品 北京时间 4月9日 中方宣布对美国输华商品加征 加征34%所谓"对等关税" 进一步提高50%至84% 美东时间 4月7日 美方威胁进一步对华加征 50%关税 北京时间 4月4日 中方宣布对美国输华商品 加征 34%关税 美东时间4月2日 关税由34%提高至84% 美方宣布对中国的"对等关税" 税率为34% al 2017年末 63 @玉渊遭天 ...

周一（5月12日）欧盘时段，美元指数保持上行，最近美元指数报101.46，涨幅1.04%，5月10日至11 日，中美在瑞士日内瓦举行经贸高层会谈，双方就经贸问题深入交流，达成建立经贸磋商机制等重要共 识，会谈氛围坦诚且具建设性。 据商务部发布中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明：双方承诺将于2025年5月14日前采取以下举措：美国将 （一）修改2025年4月2日第14257号行政令中规定的对中国商品（包括香港特别行政区和澳门特别行政 区商品）加征的从价关税，其中，24%的关税在初始的90天内暂停实施，同时保留按该行政令的规定对 这些商品加征剩余10%的关税；（二）取消根据2025年4月8日第14259号行政令和2025年4月9日第14266 号行政令对这些商品的加征关税。中国将（一）相应修改税委会公告2025年第4号规定的对美国商品加 征的从价关税，其中，24%的关税在初始的90天内暂停实施，同时保留对这些商品加征剩余10%的关 税，并取消根据税委会公告2025年第5号和第6号对这些商品的加征关税；（二）采取必要措施，暂停或 取消自2025年4月2日起针对美国的非关税反制措施。采取上述举措后，双方将建立机制，继续就经贸 ...

针对周末的中美磋商，特朗普强调称：我认为这将成为非常有实质内容的会议…… 美国总统特朗普5月8日在被记者问及是否有可能降低对中国累计达到145%的加征关税时回答 称"有可能"。他还表示，不会从145%进一步上调关税，对本周末举行的与中国的磋商取得进 展显示出期待。 中美将于5月10～11日在瑞士进行磋商。美国财政部长贝森特将与负责经济政策的中国副总理 何立峰举行会谈。 美国总统特朗普（REUTERS） 当被问及瑞士的磋商结束后是否会与中国国家主席习近平举行会谈时，特朗普表示"可能会。 不过，这取决于斯科特(贝森特)的汇报"。 特朗普说"中国希望进行交易"，对磋商的进展表现出自信。他强调称"虽然有人说这是为了开 会而开会，但我认为这将成为非常有实质内容的会议"。 美国综合性报纸《纽约邮报》8日报道称，有传出消息称，在谈判开始之际，美国将把对华关 税下调至50～54%。对此，特朗普7日表示，"不会"为了让中国坐到谈判桌前而首先下调关 税。 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）八十岛绫平 华盛顿报道 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 日经中文网 https://cn.nikke ...