Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the performance and trends of various futures products, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, industrial metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on market conditions and fundamentals [5][9][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - The previous trading day, most bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted a 26 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 20.8 billion yuan on the day. Beijing optimized real estate policies, and the central bank's monetary policy meeting suggested maintaining a loose policy. It is expected that bond futures still face some pressure, and caution is advised [5][6][7] Stocks - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and the economy has sufficient resilience. Recently, market sentiment has warmed up, and incremental funds have continued to enter the market. It is expected that the volatility center of the stock index will gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9] Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures both rose. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold purchases and the expected continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are also beneficial to precious metals. It is expected that precious metals will continue to rise, and investors can wait and see for long - entry opportunities [10][11] Industrial Metals - **Steel Products**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The demand for rebar is expected to decline in the long - term due to the real estate downturn, and the market will enter the off - season. Although the supply pressure has eased, the inventory is higher than last year. It is expected that prices will continue to oscillate weakly, and investors can consider short - selling at high levels during rebounds [12] - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The iron ore market supply - demand pattern is weak, with a decline in iron water output, an increase in imports and a continuous rise in port inventory. Technically, it may face resistance near the previous high. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels [14] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly. Coking coal production has decreased, while demand from downstream coke enterprises has increased. Coke procurement prices have been lowered for the third time, and steel mills' demand for coke has weakened. Technically, they may continue to rebound in the short - term, and investors can consider long - entry opportunities at low levels [15] - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures declined slightly. Manganese ore supply has changed, and ferroalloy production has been falling. Although the short - term oversupply has slightly weakened, the overall pressure remains. Investors can consider long - entry opportunities at low levels after the spot loss widens [17][18] - **Copper**: The previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures declined. The macro - economic situation is complex, and the fundamentals of copper remain in tight balance. Although there is support from pre - Spring Festival stocking demand, there is short - term pressure from weak global industrial demand and the holiday season. Copper prices are expected to remain at a high level, but investors should be cautious about chasing the rise [39][40] - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day, Shanghai aluminum and alumina futures declined. Alumina is in oversupply, while the supply of electrolytic aluminum is relatively stable. Demand is average, and aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [42] - **Zinc**: The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc futures declined. Zinc concentrate processing fees are under pressure, and refined zinc production is decreasing. Demand from downstream industries is weak, and LME zinc inventory has increased. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [44] - **Lead**: The previous trading day, Shanghai lead futures rose. Some primary lead enterprises are under maintenance, and some secondary lead enterprises have resumed production. Consumption has entered the off - season. Lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly within a range [45] - **Tin**: The previous trading day, tin futures declined. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is showing some resilience. Refined tin inventory is decreasing, and tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly [47] - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, nickel futures declined. Indonesia's nickel policy has changed, and the cost is expected to rise. However, stainless steel is in the off - season, demand is weak, and primary nickel is in an oversupply situation. Investors should pay attention to Indonesia's policies [48][49] Energy - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. CFTC data shows that US funds reduced their net short positions. There are uncertainties in the crude oil market due to various factors. Currently, Brent crude oil prices are stable near the $60 mark, and investors are advised to watch more and trade less during the holiday season [19][20] - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated slightly. The cost - end crude oil price is stable, which helps to stabilize fuel oil prices. Fuel oil has hit new lows this year, and there is a large rebound space. Investors can wait and see [21][22] Chemicals - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou showed a slight rebound, and the LLDPE market in Yuyao was mostly stable. Polyolefin production enterprises are expected to be stable with minor fluctuations. The supply pressure of standard products may ease slightly, but downstream demand is expected to decline. In the short - term, the market is still in a negative feedback stage, and investors can look for long - entry opportunities [23][24][25] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. It is supported by cost and demand in the short - term, and the market is expected to oscillate. Investors need to pay attention to changes in the supply and demand sides [26][27] - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The market is expected to experience a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, and prices may oscillate. Supply is affected by domestic and overseas factors, and demand is weak. Inventory is increasing [28][29] - **PVC**: The previous trading day, PVC futures rose. The oversupply situation continues, but the downward space may be limited. After the holiday, investors should focus on exports and supply reduction. The inventory has decreased slightly [30] - **Urea**: The previous trading day, urea futures rose. It is expected that the urea market will fluctuate slightly this week. Supply is expected to remain stable, demand is expected to increase slightly, and industry profits have recovered slightly [31][32] - **PX**: The previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread has been repaired, and the short - process profit has improved. Supply and demand have improved, and cost - end oil prices may have a short - term rebound. PX is expected to adjust strongly in the short - term, and investors can look for long - entry opportunities at low levels [33] - **PTA**: The previous trading day, PTA futures rose. Supply has decreased, demand has been supported, and exports have increased. Processing fees have declined, and inventory is at a low level. PTA is expected to have good medium - and long - term supply and demand, and investors can follow the cost - end to participate at low levels [34] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. Supply pressure remains due to new production and restarts, and port inventory is increasing. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and investors can participate in a range - bound manner [35] - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. Supply has declined but remains at a relatively high level, demand support has weakened, and cost - end drive has increased. Short - fiber is expected to oscillate following raw material prices [36] - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. Processing fees have declined, supply has decreased slightly, and exports have increased. It is expected to oscillate following the cost - end [37] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. Supply is at a high level, and demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved. Inventory has decreased, and prices may be supported in the short - term. Investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [38] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Meal**: The previous trading day, soybean meal and oil futures declined. Brazilian soybean planting is almost complete, and the domestic soybean supply is relatively loose. The demand for soybean meal is expected to grow moderately, and the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly. Investors can look for long - entry opportunities for soybean meal at the low - cost support level and for soybean oil through long - call options at the low - level range [50][51] - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil was basically flat. The production in December decreased, and the export situation was mixed. China's palm oil imports increased in November, and the inventory is at the middle level in the past seven years. Investors are advised to wait and see [52][53] - **Rapeseed Meal and Oil**: Canadian rapeseed futures rose. China's rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal imports in November showed different trends. Rapeseed meal and oil inventories are at different levels in the past seven years. Investors are advised to wait and see [54][55] - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated strongly. The 2026 Xinjiang cotton planting policy will reduce the sown area. Although domestic cotton production is high, the inventory accumulation is less than expected. Cotton prices are expected to run strongly [56][58][59] - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded. China's sugar imports in November decreased year - on - year, and Brazil's sugar production and exports showed different trends. India's sugar production is expected to increase significantly. After the sharp rebound, the upward space may be limited, and investors are advised to wait and see [60][61][62] - **Apples**: The previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated. The current inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season apple production and quality have declined. Apple prices are expected to run strongly [63][64] - **Hogs**: The previous trading day, hog futures rose. The northern hog market is expected to strengthen, and the southern market is stable. The supply and demand situation is complex, and investors are advised to wait and see [64][66] - **Eggs**: The previous trading day, egg futures rose. The egg supply is expected to remain at a high level in December, but the demand is weak. The supply - side improvement is offset by weak demand. Investors are advised to wait and see [67][68] - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures rose. The northern port corn inventory is increasing, and the demand is growing slightly. Corn starch demand has improved, but the supply is abundant, and the inventory is at a high level. It may follow the corn market [69][70][71]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The news that the US government is about to end the shutdown and the friendly trade between China and the US have boosted market risk appetite, leading to a slightly stronger upward trend in Shanghai copper futures. However, attention should be paid to the release of economic data after the government resumes operations [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Today, Shanghai copper opened higher and trended lower, with a slightly stronger upward trend during intraday trading. In November, 5 smelters are expected to undergo maintenance, involving a crude refining capacity of 1.5 million tons, and the expected maintenance impact is 48,000 tons. The operating rate of copper concentrate smelters is 85.4%, a 3.1% decrease from the previous period; the operating rate of smelters mainly using scrap copper or anode copper is 63.3%, a 1.0% increase from the previous period. Affected by Document No. 770, the procurement of anode copper is still affected, but after the policies in some regions become clear, the operations are gradually recovering. It is expected that the supply of scrap copper will increase in the future to make up for the tight supply of copper ore. Last week, the copper price decreased compared to the previous period, and the price reduction led to an increase in the purchasing volume of downstream enterprises. However, the peak season this year was not as good as in previous years and has basically ended. The short - term increase in purchasing due to the price correction has not reversed the weak demand of downstream enterprises. The operating rate of downstream copper products has decreased compared to the previous period, and the performance of traditional terminal industries is average. Since the end of October, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has been continuously increasing. As of November 7, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 43,400 tons, a 9.28% increase from the previous week [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and trended higher, then declined during intraday trading. Spot: Today, the spot premium in East China is 45 yuan/ton, and the spot premium in South China is - 20 yuan/ton. On November 10, 2025, the LME official price was 10,815 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 315 US dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of the latest data on November 10, the spot crude refining fee (TC) is - 41.9 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.00 US cents/pound [8] Fundamental Tracking - In terms of inventory, the SHFE copper inventory is 43,000 tons, an increase of 1,817 tons from the previous period. As of November 10, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 102,400 tons, an increase of 600 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory is 136,300 tons, an increase of 1,425 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory is 372,300 short tons, an increase of 2,950 short tons from the previous period [11]

Group 1 - Bitcoin has reached a new historical high, surpassing $124,000, with a price of $121,868 reported on August 14, reflecting a 1.7% increase within 24 hours [1] - Other major cryptocurrencies have also seen price increases, with Ethereum at $4,747.81 (up 2.4%) and Cardano (ADA) at $0.9894 (up 13.3%) [1] - Since April 2025, Bitcoin has experienced a continuous upward trend for five months, with significant fluctuations in August, attributed to favorable U.S. inflation data and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [3] Group 2 - Institutional investment in Bitcoin and Ethereum has significantly increased, with record inflows of $4.39 billion in the third week of July, totaling $11.2 billion for the month [4] - The market has seen a substantial reduction in the effective circulation of digital assets due to large-scale locking of these assets, providing upward price support [4] - A significant number of liquidations occurred, with over 100,000 users facing liquidation in the last 24 hours, totaling approximately $474 million, primarily from short positions [4] Group 3 - The speculative nature of cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, has intensified during price surges, leading to increased market volatility and liquidation events [5] - The integration of traditional finance and digital finance is accelerating, blurring the lines between digital assets and traditional securities, which may enhance valuation stability and pricing transparency [5] - Investors are cautioned about the high-risk nature of digital assets, emphasizing the differences in price volatility and underlying mechanisms compared to traditional investments [5]

Group 1 - The domestic equity market continued its strong performance last week, with the Wind All A Index rising by 2.21%, surpassing the high point from October 8 of last year, and the average daily trading volume reaching approximately 1.8 trillion yuan [1] - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, positively impacted sectors related to infrastructure such as steel, construction, and building materials, with weekly gains generally exceeding 6% [1] - Since the rebound began on June 23, the Wind All A Index has increased by over 10%, and from the low point in early April due to trade conflicts, the index has rebounded nearly 25% [1] Group 2 - The upcoming third round of economic and trade talks between China and the U.S. in Sweden is crucial for the fate of the 90-day tariff suspension, which will directly affect the interests of enterprises in both countries and global market stability [2] - The U.S. may introduce non-economic issues into the trade discussions, which could complicate U.S.-China relations and potentially have ripple effects on the global energy market and economic recovery [2] - Since June 23, the market has seen a continuous rise for five weeks, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the 3400, 3500, and 3600 points, indicating a potential risk of adjustment as it approaches the previous high of 3674 from October 8 [2] Group 3 - In the bond market, both interest rate and credit bond yields rose across the board last week, with an increase in net supply of interest rate bonds primarily due to significant net supply from local government bonds [2] - The funding environment showed increased volatility, with rising funding rates, alongside inflation expectations driven by the commencement of the Yarlung hydropower project and the ten major industries' growth stabilization efforts [2] - The crowded market conditions previously led to high durations in interest rate bond funds, with ultra-long bonds and non-active bonds experiencing compressed yield spreads, making the market sensitive to marginal negative news [2]

Index Performance - The CSI A500 Index rose by 0.96% this week, closing at 4707.08 points on July 11, marking three consecutive weeks of gains [6] - The average daily trading volume for the week was 4067.87 billion yuan, with a week-on-week increase of 10.89% [6] Component Stocks Performance - The top ten gainers this week included: 1. Zhongyou Capital (000617.SZ) with a gain of 27.78% 2. Quzhou Development (600208.SH) with a gain of 23.67% 3. Northern Rare Earth (600111.SH) with a gain of 21.66% 4. Shenghe Resources (600392.SH) with a gain of 18.99% 5. Harbin Investment (600864.SH) with a gain of 16.36% 6. China Rare Earth (000831.SZ) with a gain of 16.31% 7. Baogang Group (600010.SH) with a gain of 15.47% 8. New Town Holdings (601155.SH) with a gain of 12.98% 9. JA Solar Technology (002459.SZ) with a gain of 12.56% 10. Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ) with a gain of 12.50% [4] - The top ten losers included: 1. Huahai Pharmaceutical (600521.SH) with a loss of 9.50% 2. Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422.SZ) with a loss of 8.61% 3. Baillie Gifford (688506.SH) with a loss of 8.43% 4. Junshi Biosciences (688180.SH) with a loss of 7.54% 5. Dongpeng Beverage (605499.SH) with a loss of 6.30% 6. Yingfeng Environment (000967.SZ) with a loss of 5.94% 7. Ziwen Mining (601899.SH) with a loss of 5.79% 8. Juhua Group (600160.SH) with a loss of 5.62% 9. Shandong Gold (600547.SH) with a loss of 5.41% 10. Pudong Development Bank (600000.SH) with a loss of 5.35% [4] Fund Performance - All 38 CSI A500 funds collectively rose this week, with the top performer being the Fortune Fund, which increased by 1.48% [7] - The total scale of these funds reached 1985.44 billion yuan, with the top three being Huatai-PineBridge (189.17 billion yuan), Guotai (178.43 billion yuan), and GF Fund (171.80 billion yuan) [7] Market Insights - Recent reports indicate that the A-share market has broken through key levels, moving away from a "full reduction" mindset, with structural expansion observed [8] - The bond market is experiencing low interest rates and volatility, facing strong resistance both upwards and downwards [8] - The report suggests that the second half of the year will see an influx of incremental capital, driving the market to a new level, with insurance capital leading the way [8] - The technology sector is highlighted as having high probability and return potential due to industry trends and supportive policies [8] - Consumer data shows signs of improvement, with macroeconomic indicators reflecting positive trends, particularly in discretionary consumption [9]

Group 1: Tariff Changes - The cumulative tariff imposed by the US on Chinese goods in 2025 is 30%[1] - As of April 2, 2025, the US increased tariffs on Chinese goods by 34%, with 24% of that suspended for the initial 90 days[1] - The average tariff level in the US rose from 3.3% to 13.3%, surpassing Brazil (11.2%), China (7.5%), the EU (5%), and Vietnam (9.4%)[1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the joint statement on May 12, 2025, domestic equity markets reacted positively, with major indices like Wind All A, Hang Seng Index, and FTSE China A50 rising by 1.30%, 2.98%, and 0.88% respectively[6] - The 10-year government bond futures fell by 0.46% after the announcement[6] - The US dollar index strengthened significantly, while the Japanese yen, euro, and British pound depreciated against the dollar; however, the Chinese yuan appreciated against the dollar[6] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - The joint statement is expected to enhance market investors' risk appetite, potentially benefiting the domestic equity market in the future[6] - There are risks associated with the US tariff actions, including increased inflation expectations and a higher probability of economic recession in the US[7]

以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者全球资产配置团队 本期投资提示： 全球资产价格回顾：本周（20250419-20250426）特朗普多次发言表明希望缓和与中国的贸易关系。对于市场而言，关税不确定性最大的阶段基本 已经过去，市场风险偏好企稳反弹。叠加美股多支重要科技股业绩超预期，本周纳斯达克指数反弹明显，全球股市情绪明显转暖。1）利率方面， 美十年国债收益率下13 BPs来到4.29%，美元指数上行到99.6。 2）权益方面， 关税不确定性降温提升市场风险偏好。此外，美国重要科技股业绩 亮眼，如谷歌云业务利润21.8亿美元，大幅高于分析师预期的19.4亿美元，此外公布了700亿美元的股票回购计划。本周纳斯达克反弹明显。具体 地，标普500(4.59%)＞发达市场(4.10%)>日经225(2.81%)>新兴市场(2.67%)>沪深300(0.38%)。 3）商品方面， 黄金冲高回落，整体下跌0.33%，布伦 特原油价格下跌2.98%。 申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 关税担忧边际降温，全球市场情绪修复明显 全球资金层面：美国固收类基金持续流出，发达欧洲股市资金大幅流入。全球资金层面：1)国家与地区层 ...