Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The news that the US government is about to end the shutdown and the friendly trade between China and the US have boosted market risk appetite, leading to a slightly stronger upward trend in Shanghai copper futures. However, attention should be paid to the release of economic data after the government resumes operations [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Today, Shanghai copper opened higher and trended lower, with a slightly stronger upward trend during intraday trading. In November, 5 smelters are expected to undergo maintenance, involving a crude refining capacity of 1.5 million tons, and the expected maintenance impact is 48,000 tons. The operating rate of copper concentrate smelters is 85.4%, a 3.1% decrease from the previous period; the operating rate of smelters mainly using scrap copper or anode copper is 63.3%, a 1.0% increase from the previous period. Affected by Document No. 770, the procurement of anode copper is still affected, but after the policies in some regions become clear, the operations are gradually recovering. It is expected that the supply of scrap copper will increase in the future to make up for the tight supply of copper ore. Last week, the copper price decreased compared to the previous period, and the price reduction led to an increase in the purchasing volume of downstream enterprises. However, the peak season this year was not as good as in previous years and has basically ended. The short - term increase in purchasing due to the price correction has not reversed the weak demand of downstream enterprises. The operating rate of downstream copper products has decreased compared to the previous period, and the performance of traditional terminal industries is average. Since the end of October, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has been continuously increasing. As of November 7, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 43,400 tons, a 9.28% increase from the previous week [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and trended higher, then declined during intraday trading. Spot: Today, the spot premium in East China is 45 yuan/ton, and the spot premium in South China is - 20 yuan/ton. On November 10, 2025, the LME official price was 10,815 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 315 US dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of the latest data on November 10, the spot crude refining fee (TC) is - 41.9 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.00 US cents/pound [8] Fundamental Tracking - In terms of inventory, the SHFE copper inventory is 43,000 tons, an increase of 1,817 tons from the previous period. As of November 10, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 102,400 tons, an increase of 600 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory is 136,300 tons, an increase of 1,425 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory is 372,300 short tons, an increase of 2,950 short tons from the previous period [11]

Group 1 - Bitcoin has reached a new historical high, surpassing $124,000, with a price of $121,868 reported on August 14, reflecting a 1.7% increase within 24 hours [1] - Other major cryptocurrencies have also seen price increases, with Ethereum at $4,747.81 (up 2.4%) and Cardano (ADA) at $0.9894 (up 13.3%) [1] - Since April 2025, Bitcoin has experienced a continuous upward trend for five months, with significant fluctuations in August, attributed to favorable U.S. inflation data and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [3] Group 2 - Institutional investment in Bitcoin and Ethereum has significantly increased, with record inflows of $4.39 billion in the third week of July, totaling $11.2 billion for the month [4] - The market has seen a substantial reduction in the effective circulation of digital assets due to large-scale locking of these assets, providing upward price support [4] - A significant number of liquidations occurred, with over 100,000 users facing liquidation in the last 24 hours, totaling approximately $474 million, primarily from short positions [4] Group 3 - The speculative nature of cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, has intensified during price surges, leading to increased market volatility and liquidation events [5] - The integration of traditional finance and digital finance is accelerating, blurring the lines between digital assets and traditional securities, which may enhance valuation stability and pricing transparency [5] - Investors are cautioned about the high-risk nature of digital assets, emphasizing the differences in price volatility and underlying mechanisms compared to traditional investments [5]

MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：江钰涵 从债券市场看，泓德基金表示，上周利率债收益率、信用债收益率均全线上行。一级方面，上周利率债 净供给增加，主因地方政府债净供给较大。二级方面，上周资金面波动加大，资金利率走高，叠加雅江 水电站开工及十大行业稳增长及"反内卷"带来通胀预期，权益、商品表现亮眼，风险偏好提升，债基遭 遇赎回。此外，前期市场拥挤度高，利率债基久期创新高，超长债、非活跃券和非活跃期限利差压缩至 极低位置，交易所科创债火爆，投资者一致预期过度统一，对于边际利空较为敏感，进一步放大市场波 动。 风险提示：本材料中的观点和判断仅供参考，不构成投资、法律、会计或税务的最终操作建议或实际的 投资结果。本基金管理人不保证其中的观点和判断不会发生任何调整或变更，且不就材料中的内容对最 终操作建议做出任何担保。投资有风险，入市须谨慎。基金产品由基金管理公司发行与管理，销售机构 不承担产品的投资、兑付风险管理责任。 上周国内权益市场延续强势，万得全A周涨幅为2.21%，收盘点位已经超过去年10月8日的高点，同时成 交量有所放大，日均成交额达到1.8万亿元附近；伴随着7月19日总投资额高达1.2万亿 ...

Index Performance - The CSI A500 Index rose by 0.96% this week, closing at 4707.08 points on July 11, marking three consecutive weeks of gains [6] - The average daily trading volume for the week was 4067.87 billion yuan, with a week-on-week increase of 10.89% [6] Component Stocks Performance - The top ten gainers this week included: 1. Zhongyou Capital (000617.SZ) with a gain of 27.78% 2. Quzhou Development (600208.SH) with a gain of 23.67% 3. Northern Rare Earth (600111.SH) with a gain of 21.66% 4. Shenghe Resources (600392.SH) with a gain of 18.99% 5. Harbin Investment (600864.SH) with a gain of 16.36% 6. China Rare Earth (000831.SZ) with a gain of 16.31% 7. Baogang Group (600010.SH) with a gain of 15.47% 8. New Town Holdings (601155.SH) with a gain of 12.98% 9. JA Solar Technology (002459.SZ) with a gain of 12.56% 10. Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ) with a gain of 12.50% [4] - The top ten losers included: 1. Huahai Pharmaceutical (600521.SH) with a loss of 9.50% 2. Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422.SZ) with a loss of 8.61% 3. Baillie Gifford (688506.SH) with a loss of 8.43% 4. Junshi Biosciences (688180.SH) with a loss of 7.54% 5. Dongpeng Beverage (605499.SH) with a loss of 6.30% 6. Yingfeng Environment (000967.SZ) with a loss of 5.94% 7. Ziwen Mining (601899.SH) with a loss of 5.79% 8. Juhua Group (600160.SH) with a loss of 5.62% 9. Shandong Gold (600547.SH) with a loss of 5.41% 10. Pudong Development Bank (600000.SH) with a loss of 5.35% [4] Fund Performance - All 38 CSI A500 funds collectively rose this week, with the top performer being the Fortune Fund, which increased by 1.48% [7] - The total scale of these funds reached 1985.44 billion yuan, with the top three being Huatai-PineBridge (189.17 billion yuan), Guotai (178.43 billion yuan), and GF Fund (171.80 billion yuan) [7] Market Insights - Recent reports indicate that the A-share market has broken through key levels, moving away from a "full reduction" mindset, with structural expansion observed [8] - The bond market is experiencing low interest rates and volatility, facing strong resistance both upwards and downwards [8] - The report suggests that the second half of the year will see an influx of incremental capital, driving the market to a new level, with insurance capital leading the way [8] - The technology sector is highlighted as having high probability and return potential due to industry trends and supportive policies [8] - Consumer data shows signs of improvement, with macroeconomic indicators reflecting positive trends, particularly in discretionary consumption [9]

Group 1: Tariff Changes - The cumulative tariff imposed by the US on Chinese goods in 2025 is 30%[1] - As of April 2, 2025, the US increased tariffs on Chinese goods by 34%, with 24% of that suspended for the initial 90 days[1] - The average tariff level in the US rose from 3.3% to 13.3%, surpassing Brazil (11.2%), China (7.5%), the EU (5%), and Vietnam (9.4%)[1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the joint statement on May 12, 2025, domestic equity markets reacted positively, with major indices like Wind All A, Hang Seng Index, and FTSE China A50 rising by 1.30%, 2.98%, and 0.88% respectively[6] - The 10-year government bond futures fell by 0.46% after the announcement[6] - The US dollar index strengthened significantly, while the Japanese yen, euro, and British pound depreciated against the dollar; however, the Chinese yuan appreciated against the dollar[6] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - The joint statement is expected to enhance market investors' risk appetite, potentially benefiting the domestic equity market in the future[6] - There are risks associated with the US tariff actions, including increased inflation expectations and a higher probability of economic recession in the US[7]

以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者全球资产配置团队 本期投资提示： 全球资产价格回顾：本周（20250419-20250426）特朗普多次发言表明希望缓和与中国的贸易关系。对于市场而言，关税不确定性最大的阶段基本 已经过去，市场风险偏好企稳反弹。叠加美股多支重要科技股业绩超预期，本周纳斯达克指数反弹明显，全球股市情绪明显转暖。1）利率方面， 美十年国债收益率下13 BPs来到4.29%，美元指数上行到99.6。 2）权益方面， 关税不确定性降温提升市场风险偏好。此外，美国重要科技股业绩 亮眼，如谷歌云业务利润21.8亿美元，大幅高于分析师预期的19.4亿美元，此外公布了700亿美元的股票回购计划。本周纳斯达克反弹明显。具体 地，标普500(4.59%)＞发达市场(4.10%)>日经225(2.81%)>新兴市场(2.67%)>沪深300(0.38%)。 3）商品方面， 黄金冲高回落，整体下跌0.33%，布伦 特原油价格下跌2.98%。 申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 关税担忧边际降温，全球市场情绪修复明显 全球资金层面：美国固收类基金持续流出，发达欧洲股市资金大幅流入。全球资金层面：1)国家与地区层 ...