Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of Artificial Intelligence Data Centers (AIDC) is significantly transforming the energy storage industry, creating a structural change driven by the demand for green, stable, and economical power [1][3]. Group 1: Structural Changes in Energy Storage Industry - AIDC is reshaping the energy storage industry from three dimensions: market demand, application scenarios, and power system architecture, with global AIDC computing power demand expected to grow 4-5 times by 2030 [3]. - By 2030, the AIDC sector alone is projected to generate over 300 GWh of energy storage demand, becoming a new growth driver for the energy storage industry [3]. - AIDC's characteristics, such as high power density and significant load fluctuations, necessitate a shift in energy storage systems from "backup power" to "core power regulation" [3]. Group 2: Evolving Application Scenarios - The layout of AIDC is pushing energy storage applications from centralized to a "centralized + distributed" collaborative evolution [4]. - In remote areas with abundant wind and solar resources, AIDC must collaborate with energy storage to create independent green power supply systems [4]. - In urban core areas, distributed energy storage needs to be integrated into AIDC cabinets or parks to address real-time load fluctuations [4]. Group 3: Challenges in Scaling AIDC Energy Storage - AIDC energy storage faces three core challenges: adaptation to extreme conditions, ensuring high reliability, and cost control [6][7]. - Stability under extreme conditions is critical, as AIDC is often located in areas with harsh climates, which can affect the chemical stability of storage cells and system thermal management [6]. - High reliability is essential, with AIDC requiring a power supply online rate of over 99.9%, necessitating rapid response times and a robust protection system [7]. - Cost control is vital for market viability, as high investment and operational costs directly impact AIDC's operational efficiency [7]. Group 4: Clear Directions for Technology Iteration - The technology iteration direction for AIDC energy storage is focusing on long-duration storage, high-voltage architecture, multi-technology integration, and intelligent scheduling [9]. - Long-duration storage is key to addressing the structural contradiction between rapid computing power iteration and long power construction cycles [9]. - High-voltage direct current supply architecture is becoming mainstream, with products like the central energy router simplifying supply chains and reducing energy loss [9]. - The integration of lithium and sodium battery technologies is emerging as a complementary approach to meet diverse AIDC needs [10]. - Intelligent scheduling and digital management are becoming core competitive advantages, leveraging big data and AI for optimal energy utilization [10]. Group 5: Global Trends - The integration of AIDC and energy storage is an irreversible trend, necessitating the energy storage industry to adapt to AIDC's evolving demands and overcome technological bottlenecks [10].

Core Viewpoint - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) has initiated coverage on Shuangdeng Group Co., Ltd. (6960.HK), rating it as "outperform" with a target price of HKD 22.90, highlighting its leading position in the communication and data center energy storage sector and the growth potential from the global Artificial Intelligence Data Center (AIDC) market [1] Group 1: Market Position and Share - Shuangdeng Group is ranked first globally in battery shipments for communication and data center energy storage, with a market share of 11.1% in 2024 [1] - The company holds the top position among Chinese enterprises in the global data center energy storage market with a market share of 16.1% and ranks first in the global telecom base station energy storage market with a market share of 9.2% [1] Group 2: Customer Base and Revenue Contribution - By the end of 2024, Shuangdeng Group will cover nearly 30% of the top 100 global telecom operators and equipment manufacturers, including major clients like China Mobile, China Telecom, Ericsson, and France Telecom [2] - The company has an 80% coverage rate among China's top ten proprietary data center companies and a 90% coverage rate among the top ten third-party data center companies, serving large tech firms such as Alibaba, Baidu, and JD.com [2] - Data center and telecom base station energy storage combined will contribute over 88% of the company's revenue by the first half of 2025, indicating a high concentration in these high-growth areas [2] Group 3: International Expansion and R&D - The market previously underestimated Shuangdeng Group's potential for international expansion, with the company establishing subsidiaries in Singapore and the United States, and actively pursuing localized manufacturing to enhance international growth [3] - In 2024, the company's overseas business is expected to generate revenue of CNY 890 million, accounting for nearly 20% of total revenue, with a focus on local manufacturing to reduce geopolitical risks and improve responsiveness [3] - Shuangdeng Group has a strong R&D capability, holding 337 patents and participating in drafting 31 national and industry standards, which creates competitive barriers [3] - The company's lithium battery products for data centers support ultra-fast charging capabilities and integrate multi-level Battery Management Systems (BMS) for real-time monitoring, significantly enhancing safety and operational efficiency [3]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the trends and developments in the power systems, humanoid robots, and industrial control sectors, highlighting the significant growth potential in these areas. Key Points on Power Systems - The power systems are transitioning towards high-voltage direct current (HVDC) technology, with rapid iterations in external power supply technology expected to lead to large-scale applications by 2028 [1][2]. - Domestic companies have a technological advantage in HVDC and solid-state transformers (SST), positioning them well in the market [1][2]. - The demand for transformers is strong due to long-cycle upgrades in the power grid, making them a critical component in the supply chain [1][6]. - Alibaba and Tencent have adopted HVDC technology, with the overseas market expected to initiate 800V projects by 2026, marking the arrival of the direct current era [1][7]. - The global investment in power grids is projected to grow at an annual rate of 5%, reaching a total capital expenditure of $650 billion by 2035 [1][18]. Key Points on Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot market is expected to see production reach 20,000 to 30,000 units by 2025, with domestic demand accounting for about 20,000 units [1][2]. - 2026 is identified as a critical year for technology convergence and supplier confirmation, with Tesla planning to prepare for mass production by the end of 2026 [1][2]. - The supply chain for humanoid robots is rapidly expanding, with companies like Zhejiang Rongtai making significant progress in component integration [1][4][5]. - The market for humanoid robots is projected to exceed 10 billion yuan in orders by 2026, driven by strong policy support and commercial applications [1][27]. Key Points on Industrial Control - The industrial control sector is expected to recover starting in the second half of 2024, with significant contributions from the lithium battery industry and other OEM sectors [1][34]. - Domestic industrial control companies are actively exploring overseas markets, with companies like Inovance competing directly with Siemens [1][35]. - The focus on humanoid robots within the industrial control sector is increasing, with companies leveraging their technological advantages for future production phases [1][35]. Additional Insights - The global power grid construction faces bottlenecks, including supply chain issues, slow equipment expansion, and labor shortages, which may hinder rapid resolution of supply-side problems [1][17]. - The transformer market is experiencing a "super cycle," with demand driven by renewable energy and data centers, leading to a significant backlog of orders [1][19][20]. - The competitive landscape for power equipment companies shows that domestic firms like Siyuan are gaining market share, with room for valuation improvement compared to international counterparts [1][21]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies for investment include: - AIDC: Sunshine Sifang, Mai Mi, Zhongheng Hongfa, Liangxin - Humanoid Robots: Sanhua, Inovance, Rongtai, Keda Li, Weichuang, Zhenyu, Leisai, Beite, Sihong, Xinjie - Power Grid: Siyuan, Pinggao, XJ Electric, West Electric, Samsung, Haixing, Nanrui [1][36].

Core Insights - The rise of Artificial Intelligence Data Centers (AIDC) is creating new energy demands, emphasizing safety, economy, and sustainability in energy supply chains [1][3] - Green energy and carbon reduction are identified as two main pathways to address AIDC energy consumption issues, leading to opportunities for energy solution providers [1][5] Industry Developments - Companies are actively investing in virtual power plants, AIDC power support, and energy storage solutions to adapt to the new energy demands created by AIDC [1][2] - China Energy Construction (601868) has made significant technological breakthroughs in virtual power plants, enhancing system flexibility and reducing operational costs [1] - Yangdian Technology (301012) plans to invest 50 million yuan to establish a subsidiary focused on comprehensive power solutions for data centers and AIDC [1] Energy Storage Innovations - Energy storage is crucial for the stable operation of AIDC, with companies like Haicheng Energy launching lithium-sodium collaborative storage solutions to increase green energy usage [2][6] - Jerry Holdings (002353) is making progress in the data center power generation sector, having signed contracts for generator sales with major AI companies, entering the North American market [2] Energy Demand Projections - According to the International Energy Agency, global data center electricity demand is expected to double by 2030, reaching approximately 945 TWh, with AIDC demand projected to quadruple [3] - The unique energy requirements of AIDC are reshaping the energy industry, necessitating a focus on economic and green energy supply [3][4] Green Energy Transition - The transition to a green energy supply system for AIDC is gaining traction, with significant increases in power consumption per cabinet, from 4-8 kW in traditional data centers to over 100 kW currently, potentially reaching 1 MW in the future [4] - Policies are being implemented to guide the green and low-carbon development of data centers, aiming for an average energy efficiency of 1.5 or lower by 2025 [4] Carbon Reduction Strategies - AIDC's carbon emissions can be reduced by 20% to 40% through the use of green energy and storage technologies compared to traditional energy sources [5] - Innovations in energy transmission and heat recovery systems are being explored to minimize energy losses and improve efficiency [5] Collaborative Energy Management - The concept of "computing-electricity synergy" is emerging, where data centers can optimize power scheduling and improve overall efficiency through AI technologies [7][8] - Major internet companies are utilizing virtual power plant technologies to manage computing resources across multiple data centers based on energy costs and carbon footprints [7][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the company's stock price has increased by 124.5% since coverage began in June, and there is still significant upside potential due to high demand for smart distribution services from AIDC clients [1] - The company has raised its net profit forecasts for FY25-27 by 1.2%, 1.6%, and 2.1% respectively, and has increased the target price from HKD 17.40 to HKD 21.75, reflecting a 30.4% upside potential based on a target P/E ratio of 16.0 times for FY26 [1] - The company expects substantial growth in new orders from AIDC clients, projecting approximately RMB 2.3 billion in new orders for FY25 and RMB 3.6 billion for FY26, representing a year-on-year increase of 56.5% [1] Group 2 - The smart distribution business is anticipated to maintain high growth, with projected compound annual growth rates for revenue and gross profit of 25.4% and 27.9% respectively from FY24 to FY27, surpassing the overall company growth rates [2] - The contribution of the smart distribution business to total revenue and gross profit is expected to rise from 33.3% and 24.9% in FY24 to 38.1% and 27.6% in FY27 [2] - The company is not only collaborating with major AIDC clients like GDS but is also expected to sign new large clients, particularly in Southeast Asia [2]

Demand Outlook - The global energy storage system installation capacity is expected to reach approximately 360 GWh (equivalent to 125 GW) by 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of 35% [1] - Key growth regions include the United States, Australia, and the Middle East, with the Middle East projected to install 35-45 GWh by 2026, and the U.S. expected to reach 60-80 GWh, with AI data centers contributing 15-20 GWh [2] - Europe is anticipated to experience slower growth, with an expected increase of less than 10% due to potential supply chain constraints [3] Competitive Landscape - In the U.S. market, Tesla leads with approximately 40% market share, benefiting from strong technological capabilities and robust local production, although it faces challenges with higher pricing [4] - Chinese suppliers dominate the battery supply market, with CATL holding about 40% market share in North America, but cautious about further growth due to U.S. "non-China supply chain" requirements [5] - Korean companies, such as LG Energy Solution, are expected to gain market share through localized production and investment tax credits, despite currently lagging behind Chinese firms in safety performance [5] Price Outlook - Overall prices for energy storage systems are expected to decline, with no long-term capacity shortages anticipated for battery cells [6] - In the U.S. and EU markets, prices for energy storage systems from non-Chinese manufacturers are 30%-50% higher than those from Chinese manufacturers, with AIDC-related storage being less price-sensitive [7] - The Middle East market is characterized by intense price competition, approaching levels seen in China, driven by cost sensitivity and large order sizes [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with an updated target price of HKD 21.75, reflecting a potential upside of 30.4% from the current price of HKD 16.68 [1][5]. Core Insights - The demand for the company's smart distribution services from AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) clients is expected to exceed expectations, leading to significant growth in new orders for FY26 [1][2]. - The company has expanded its development foundation from traditional industrial sectors to advanced technology sectors, supporting a higher valuation [1]. - The report projects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.4% for smart distribution revenue and 27.9% for gross profit from FY24 to FY27, which is higher than the overall company growth rates [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 7,252 million in 2023 to RMB 15,004 million in 2027, with a CAGR of 19.8% [4][10]. - Shareholder net profit is expected to increase from RMB 521 million in 2023 to RMB 1,583 million in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 31.9% [4][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from RMB 0.53 in 2023 to RMB 1.59 in 2027 [4][10]. Order Growth Expectations - New orders from AIDC clients are anticipated to reach approximately RMB 23 billion in FY26, representing a year-on-year increase of about 130% [2]. - The report conservatively estimates that FY26 deliveries to AIDC clients could amount to RMB 23 billion, driven by both existing and new large clients, particularly in Southeast Asia [2]. Business Segment Performance - The smart distribution business is expected to maintain high growth, with its revenue share of total income projected to increase from 33.3% in FY24 to 38.1% in FY27 [3]. - The gross margin for AIDC orders is expected to be higher than that of other smart distribution orders, contributing to overall profitability [3].

Core Viewpoint - Citi's research report indicates that the revenue from the Artificial Intelligence Data Center (AIDC) of the company is expected to increase from 1 billion in 2025 to 2 billion in 2026, and further to 4 billion in 2027 [1] Group 1: Revenue Growth Projections - The company anticipates that new AIDC orders locally and overseas will grow by 50% and 92.3% year-on-year, reaching 1.5 billion and 2.5 billion respectively next year [1] - The strong demand for new AIDC orders and higher profit forecasts have led Citi to raise its net profit estimates for 2025 to 2027 by 1% to 5% [1] Group 2: Target Price and Rating - Based on the revised forecasts, Citi has increased the target price from 15.5 HKD to 21 HKD and maintains a "Buy" rating on the stock [1] - The company is likely to be included in the connectivity mechanism by March next year, according to Citi's positive outlook [1]

2025 年 12 月 12 日 ︱证券研究部 叶海燕, CFA, CESGA 电话: +852 2533 3723 电邮: evayip@sbichinacapital.com 储能行业专题报告 储能风光无限，把握行业高景气 核心观点 全球能源转型加速、风光装机大幅增加令电网消纳压力攀升、储能经济性逐 步凸显、海内外支持政策频出，以及人工智能数据中心（AIDC）等新兴领域 崛起等多重驱动因素的共振之下，储能作为支撑构建新型电力系统的关键技 术，需求持续提升，而这一增长趋势有望在未来持续。据 EESA 统计，2019- 2023 年全球新型储能市场平均增速为 93%，2024 年全球储能新增装机约 188.5GWh，同比增长 80%，继续保持较高增速。EESA 预计 2025 年全球 储能市场新增装机将达到 265.1GWh，同比增长 41%。 碳中和承诺加速新能源的发展。"双碳"目标的大背景下，新型储能 2020 年 正式进入商业化阶段，其中以锂电池储能为代表的电化学储能迎来高速增长。 2026 年储能市场或延续高速增长态势。核心的驱动因素包括：（1）能源结 构向低碳转型，全球范围内可再生能源发电占比不断上 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The energy storage market in China, North America, and Europe continues to show unexpected growth potential, emphasizing the importance of the battery cell sector [1][2][6] - The wind power and electrical equipment sectors have validated their performance and trends, making them attractive investment choices [1][3] - Emerging sectors such as solid-state batteries, AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center), and robotics are also worth considering for investment [1][3] Key Insights and Arguments - The photovoltaic industry has reached a consensus against internal competition, maintaining stable prices despite relatively weak demand [1][5] - Companies with minimal production capacity that are extending into energy storage, such as Canadian Solar (阿特斯) and Tianhe (天河), are viewed positively in the medium to long term [1][5] - The energy storage sector remains one of the most prosperous areas within the power sector, with approximately 170 GWh of projects under construction or in operation across various provinces in China [1][6] - Domestic and overseas demand for energy storage is strong, with significant year-on-year growth in installed capacity and bidding data in October [1][6] Investment Recommendations - Short-term focus on GCL-Poly (协鑫) and mid-term on companies like Agricultural Machinery (农机), Tianhe (天河), and JinkoSolar (晶科), which are extending into energy storage and are expected to enter a recovery phase by the second half of 2026 [1][7] - Sunpower (阳光电源) is currently valued at approximately 400 billion RMB, with a favorable investment outlook, especially below 350 billion RMB, and is projected to reach a market cap of 600-700 billion RMB by 2028 [1][9] - The lithium battery sector remains strong, with leading companies maintaining production levels and prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate expected to rise significantly [12] Noteworthy Developments - The solid-state battery sector has seen advancements, with GAC reporting on a large-capacity solid-state battery production line and expected results by December [13] - The wind power sector is entering a cost-effective phase, with companies like Goldwind (金风科技) and Haizhi Wind Power (海力风能) showing promising overseas project bids [14] - The electrical equipment sector is experiencing robust growth, with a year-on-year increase in bidding data exceeding 20% [15][16] Potential Risks and Considerations - The battery cell industry is currently facing adjustments due to market discrepancies regarding demand growth for the upcoming year [2] - Companies like Canadian Solar are undergoing adjustments related to asset disposals in the U.S., which should be monitored closely [10] Future Directions - New directions to watch include AIDC and robotics, with significant developments expected in power supply-related equipment due to advancements in AI [17] - The overall market trend is expected to remain upward from 2026 onwards, with a focus on energy storage, wind power, and AIDC-related electrical equipment [20]