Core Points - Israel's airstrike on Iranian targets marks a significant escalation in regional tensions, potentially leading to a broader conflict in the Middle East [1] - The U.S. government has distanced itself from Israel's unilateral action, emphasizing that it was not involved and warning Iran against retaliating against U.S. interests [1][2] - Trump's previous attempts to restrain Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's actions have failed, jeopardizing ongoing negotiations with Iran regarding its nuclear program [1][2] Summary by Sections U.S.-Israel Relations - The U.S. has characterized Israel's airstrike as a unilateral action, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio stating that the U.S. was not involved and prioritizing the protection of American forces in the region [1] - Trump had previously urged Netanyahu not to attack Iran, indicating that such actions could jeopardize diplomatic negotiations [2] Iran's Nuclear Program - The airstrike has raised concerns about Iran's potential retaliation and the risk of escalating conflict, which could derail ongoing negotiations aimed at limiting Iran's nuclear ambitions [1][2] - The International Atomic Energy Agency has formally declared Iran in violation of its non-proliferation obligations, marking a significant development in the nuclear discourse [3] Diplomatic Efforts - Trump's Middle East envoy is still scheduled to engage in negotiations with Iran, viewed as a last-ditch effort to salvage diplomatic relations [2] - Critics argue that the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal has increased the risk of conflict in the region, with some suggesting that the current situation is a direct consequence of this decision [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - Following Israel's attack on Iran, oil prices surged, with U.S. crude futures rising over 8% to exceed $73 per barrel, marking the highest level since February [1] Group 1: Oil Price Dynamics - U.S. crude futures reached their highest price since February, driven by geopolitical tensions [1] - The increase in oil prices comes amid expectations of economic slowdown and reduced fuel demand prior to Trump's tariff announcement in April [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Optimism regarding the Iran nuclear deal and potential easing of sanctions on Iranian oil exports had previously pressured oil prices earlier in the spring [1] - Traders now believe that the U.S. is unlikely to lift restrictions on Iranian oil in the short term, which may lead to further disruptions in regional oil production [1]

Core Viewpoint - Iran's President Pezeshkian stated that Iran will not reach a nuclear agreement at any cost, emphasizing that Iran will not develop nuclear weapons but will not allow external pressure [1] Group 1 - Iran's commitment to not pursue nuclear weapons is reiterated by President Pezeshkian [1] - The statement reflects Iran's stance against external pressures regarding its nuclear program [1]

据纽约邮报：美国总统特朗普表示对伊朗核协议的信心减弱。 ...

伊朗政府：核协议"触手可及"，能够"迅速达成"。 订阅美国VS伊朗动态 +订阅 跟踪中东局势动态 +订阅 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 06 日 热点品种 豆粕： 豆粕主力 09 合约今日盘面高开后震荡上升，收盘涨幅 1.90%。国际方面，美国 目前估计大豆种植面积为 8400 万英亩，较上一年度减少 3.4%，比美国农业部 3 月 31 日种植意向报告估计的 8350 万英亩多 50 万英亩。2025/26 年度美国大豆 产量预估为 1.17 亿吨（预估区间 1.08-1.22 亿吨），较上次预估持平，因种植 季早期天气条件温和，种植进度稳健，但夏季的长期天气前景仍然相当黯淡。国 内方面，截止 5 月 30 日，油厂大豆实际压榨量 226.82 万吨，开机率为 63.76%， 大豆库存 582.88 万吨，较上周增加 22.25 万吨，增幅 3.97%，同比去年增加 98.98 万吨，增幅 20.45%。豆粕库存 29.8 万吨，较上周增加 9.11 万吨，增幅 44.03%， 同比去年减少 55.81 万吨，减幅 65.19%。综合来看，豆粕期货前期盘面呈现一 轮上涨后，近 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal futures market will show a volatile trend as the upward drive has weakened after the previous rally [3]. - The overall trend of urea is bearish, and attention should be paid to the short - term support from subsequent agricultural demand release and exports [4][5]. - Copper prices are oscillating in a wide range. With terminal demand support and supply shortage expectations, the amplitude is limited, and the progress of copper tariffs should be monitored [9][10]. - Crude oil prices have rebounded but still face downward pressure due to factors such as supply pressure and trade war concerns [11][13]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate at a high level in the near term, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread as it gradually enters the peak season [14]. - PP is expected to oscillate weakly due to factors such as high inventory pressure and slow downstream recovery [15][16]. - Plastic is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term because of high inventory and slow new order follow - up [17]. - PVC is in a weak oscillation state as the demand has not improved substantially and the inventory pressure is large [18][19]. - The negative feedback of lithium carbonate continues. Although there may be a technical rebound in the short - term, the fundamental weakness remains unchanged, and it is recommended to wait and see [20]. - For coking coal, short - term rebound signs appear, but the long - term bearish trend remains unchanged, and it is recommended to reduce short positions and wait and see [21][22]. - Rebar prices may decline if demand does not improve substantially, as the "supply - demand double - weak, insufficient cost support" pattern remains unchanged [23]. - Hot - rolled coil prices lack upward momentum, and there is a risk of trend - based decline after the sentiment fades [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - As of the close on June 5, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Coking coal and Shanghai tin rose more than 1%, while alumina and urea fell nearly 3% [7]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:26, CSI 1000 2506, CSI 500 2506, and Shanghai gold 2508 had capital inflows, while crude oil 2507, lithium carbonate 2507, and apple 2510 had capital outflows [7]. 3.2 Specific Commodity Analysis 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - The 09 contract of soybean meal opened higher and oscillated, with a closing increase of 0.68%. The estimated soybean planting area in the US is 84 million acres, a 3.4% decrease from the previous year. The domestic soybean inventory increased by 3.97% week - on - week and 20.45% year - on - year, and the soybean meal inventory increased by 44.03% week - on - week but decreased by 65.19% year - on - year [3]. 3.2.2 Urea - Urea prices opened low and dropped nearly 3% during the day. The supply side has a daily output of over 200,000 tons, and the demand side is in the wheat harvest stage with sporadic agricultural demand and a decline in the compound fertilizer factory's operating rate [4][5]. 3.2.3 Copper - Shanghai copper opened low and was under pressure. The supply is expected to be tight, but the actual supply has not weakened. The demand is supported by good domestic PMI data and strong off - season demand resilience. Copper prices are oscillating, and the progress of copper tariffs should be monitored [9][10]. 3.2.4 Crude Oil - In June, crude oil prices rebounded due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase and supply disruptions. However, supply pressure remains high, and there is still downward pressure on prices [11][13]. 3.2.5 Asphalt - The asphalt operating rate decreased to 27.7%, and the expected output in June increased. The downstream operating rate decreased, and the inventory is at a low level. It is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [14]. 3.2.6 PP - The downstream operating rate of PP decreased to 50.29%. The enterprise operating rate increased to about 84%, and the inventory is at a high level. It is expected to oscillate weakly [15][16]. 3.2.7 Plastic - The plastic operating rate decreased to about 84%, and the downstream operating rate is at a low level. The inventory is high, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [17]. 3.2.8 PVC - The PVC operating rate increased to 78.19%, and the downstream operating rate is low. The inventory is still high, and it is in a weak oscillation state [18][19]. 3.2.9 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are close to the bottom, but the supply pressure is large, and the demand growth is slow. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. 3.2.10 Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rebounded due to news, but the supply is loose, and the long - term trend is bearish. It is recommended to reduce short positions and wait and see [21][22]. 3.2.11 Rebar - The demand for rebar is in the off - season, and the supply pressure is not relieved. The cost support is insufficient, and there is a risk of price decline [23]. 3.2.12 Hot - rolled Coil - The supply of hot - rolled coil is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory may start to accumulate. Prices lack upward momentum and are at risk of decline [25].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 04 日 热点品种 PVC： 上游电石价格多数地区稳定。目前供应端，PVC 开工率环比增加 2.00 个百分点 至 78.19%，PVC 开工率有所增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。上周 PVC 下游开工 略有回落，同比往年仍偏低，采购较为谨慎。印度反倾销政策不利于国内 PVC 的 出口，印度将 BIS 政策再次延期六个月至 2025 年 6 月 24 日执行，中国台湾台塑 6 月份报价上调 10-20 美元/吨，出口高价成交受阻，但低价出口交付较好。另 外，印度即将迎来雨季或限制未来中国 PVC 出口。上周社会库存继续下降，只是 目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025 年 1-4 月份，房地产数据略有改善，只是 同比仍是负数，且新开工与竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，竣工面积同比增速进一步 下降。30 大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比小幅回升，但仍是历年同期偏低水 平，房地产改善仍需时间。春检过半，据统计春检规模不及去年同期，需求未实 质性改善之前 PVC ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 30 日 热点品种 碳酸锂： 今日碳酸锂开盘后高位震荡，收盘价 59883.02 元/吨，涨幅 1.35%。SMM 电池级 碳酸锂指数价格 60901 元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌 332 元/吨；电池级碳酸锂 5.94-6.2 万元/吨，均价 6.07 万元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌 200 元/吨；工业 级碳酸锂 5.86-5.96 万元/吨，均价 5.91 万元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌 200 元 /吨，碳酸锂现货成交价格重心持续下移。供给端短期碳酸锂供需维持过剩格局 延续，五月份天气转暖盐湖端开工率将季节性提高，预计国内盐湖产量将逐步抬 升，中期供应减弱，据 Mysteel，近期江西某锂盐企业预计 6 月停产检修 1 个厂， 检修时长 4 个月，预计每月影响碳酸锂月产量约 1500 吨，供给预计下降，缓解 供应压力。需求端中美关税政策变化，在关税豁免 90 天内，利好储能电池出口 预期，缓冲碳酸锂需求疲软的情况，但难以改变产业现状。库存端即 ...

新加坡《联合早报》称，在阿曼的斡旋下，美国与伊朗5月23日在意大利首都罗马举行第五轮间接谈判。虽然阿曼外交大臣巴德尔说谈判"取得了 一些非决定性的进展"，但双方在若干核心问题上仍存在严重分歧。国际原子能机构总干事格罗西28日称，伊朗与美国重启核谈判的结果"尚无定 论"。格罗西告诉记者，双方正在进行的会谈是一个积极的信号，并证实国际原子能机构核保障部部长马西莫·阿帕罗已抵达德黑兰进行磋商。 【环球时报报道 记者 周扬】当地时间28日，美国《纽约时报》刊文称，在美国政府试图与伊朗通过谈判达成新的核协议之际，以色列总理内塔尼 亚胡一直威胁要通过袭击伊朗的主要核设施来破坏谈判。该报道刊登后，以色列总理办公室迅速予以否认，称该消息是"假新闻"。同日，美国总 统特朗普在白宫表示，他已警告内塔尼亚胡暂勿攻击伊朗，以便给美国政府更多时间推动与伊朗达成新的核协议。 据《耶路撒冷邮报》29日报道，以色列总理办公室28日否认了《纽约时报》的报道，并称其为假新闻。在《纽约时报》的报道发出后，特朗普28 日在白宫表示，他已要求内塔尼亚胡不要对伊朗核设施进行空袭，因为此类袭击可能会对为达成新协议进行的谈判产生负面影响。"我们正在与伊 朗 ...