Core Insights - The recent implementation plan for boosting consumption in Guangzhou emphasizes housing consumption as a key area for economic stimulation, aligning with national and provincial strategies to treat housing as a major consumer good [1][2]. Group 1: Housing Consumption Initiatives - The plan includes measures to enhance housing consumption through old community renovations, stock acquisitions, and public fund support, focusing on meeting the demand for improved living conditions [1]. - Guangzhou aims to complete a fixed asset investment of 100 billion yuan in urban village renovations by 2025, which will involve both micro-renovations and new constructions to address historical issues and improve living standards [2]. Group 2: Policy Optimizations - The plan proposes to optimize housing provident fund policies, allowing contributors to withdraw funds for down payments while applying for personal housing loans, thereby lowering the barriers to home ownership for new residents and young people [3]. - Guangzhou has already lifted restrictions on home purchases, sales, and pricing as of September 2024, which is expected to facilitate the free flow of resources and enhance the supply of high-quality housing [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Guangzhou's newly proposed consumption stimulation plan, which aims to activate the consumer market through various measures, particularly focusing on housing consumption as a significant component of overall consumer spending [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The plan includes the complete removal of purchase restrictions, sales limits, and price caps in the real estate sector, alongside lowering down payment ratios and interest rates [2][3]. - Guangzhou has already eliminated purchase restrictions for both local and non-local residents, making it the first tier city to do so [2]. Group 2: Housing Consumption Focus - Housing consumption is emphasized, with specific measures targeting the renovation of old neighborhoods and urban villages, as well as optimizing housing fund policies to support lower-income groups [1][4]. - The plan aims to enhance the living experience for residents and reduce housing costs, reflecting a shift in housing from a luxury to a general consumer good [1][4]. Group 3: Urban Renewal and Investment - The plan outlines a commitment to accelerate the renovation of urban villages and old neighborhoods, with a target of investing 100 billion yuan in fixed assets for these projects by 2025 [4][5]. - The Huangpu District has seen significant progress in urban renewal projects, with a reported investment of 10.5 billion yuan in the first quarter of the year, marking a 6% year-on-year increase [5]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The removal of restrictions and the push for urban renewal are expected to stimulate the second-hand housing market, with some areas experiencing over a 60% increase in transaction volumes [5]. - The plan also includes provisions for using special loans to purchase existing properties for resettlement, which may lead to new housing demand in conjunction with urban village renovations [6].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in major Chinese cities is experiencing a moderate recovery driven by policy support, with new home sales showing significant year-on-year growth, while the second-hand home market is facing seasonal fluctuations and varying performance across cities [1][3][4]. Group 1: New Home Market Performance - In Beijing, from May 1 to May 28, new home transactions reached 3,340 units, representing a month-on-month increase of 3.5% and a year-on-year increase of 32.9% [1]. - The cumulative new home sales in seven key cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Nanjing, and Qingdao) totaled 29,000 units in the same period, indicating a better performance compared to the previous year [3]. - Shanghai's new home sales were 10,891 units, with a month-on-month increase of 12.5% and a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [3]. Group 2: Second-Hand Home Market Trends - In Beijing, the second-hand home market saw a total of 12,257 transactions from May 1 to May 28, which is a month-on-month decrease of 12.9% but a year-on-year increase of 10.5% [2]. - Other cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen also experienced month-on-month declines in second-hand home sales, with Shanghai down 11.7% and Shenzhen down 21.1%, while both cities showed year-on-year increases [3]. Group 3: Policy Support for Housing Consumption - Recent policies across various provinces, including Fujian, Henan, and Shanghai, aim to boost housing consumption by reducing restrictive measures and enhancing purchasing incentives [6][7]. - The adjustment of public housing fund loan rates and the reduction of mortgage rates are expected to lower the cost of home purchases for residents [6]. - The central government's emphasis on stabilizing housing consumption is seen as a crucial part of broader economic stimulus efforts, with expectations for more detailed policies to emerge [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices generally closed lower with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.72%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.96%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets declined slightly, and over 4,400 stocks fell. Currently, the domestic economic fundamentals are slightly weak, which has a negative impact on market sentiment. Although domestic macro - support policies have been introduced, it is necessary to wait for the policy effects. In the short term, the market is expected to remain volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices**: The latest price of the IF main contract (2506) is 3879.6, down 2.0; the IH main contract (2506) is 2715.4, up 2.6; the IC main contract (2506) is 5614.8, down 39.6; the IM main contract (2506) is 5950.0, down 48.6 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: The IF - IH current - month contract spread is 1164.2, down 4.4; the IC - IF current - month contract spread is 1735.2, down 39.2; the IM - IC current - month contract spread is 335.2, down 9.8 [2]. - **Futures Term Spreads**: IF current - quarter minus current - month is - 72.0, up 0.2; IH current - quarter minus current - month is - 38.2, down 1.8; IC current - quarter minus current - month is - 188.6, up 6.2; IM current - quarter minus current - month is - 241.8, up 0.8 [2]. - **Futures Net Positions**: The net position of the top 20 in IF is - 30,286.00, up 141.0; the net position of the top 20 in IH is - 10,988.00, down 889.0; the net position of the top 20 in IC is - 14,118.00, up 274.0; the net position of the top 20 in IM is - 35,623.00, down 45.0 [2]. - **Futures Basis**: The basis of the IF main contract is - 34.3, up 0.9; the basis of the IH main contract is - 18.2, down 2.4; the basis of the IC main contract is - 88.5, up 13.8; the basis of the IM main contract is - 116.1, up 15.5 [2]. 3.2 Market Sentiment - The A - share trading volume is 11,397.05 billion yuan, down 746.67 billion yuan; the margin trading balance is 18,111.84 billion yuan, down 16.56 billion yuan; the north - bound trading volume is 1287.83 billion yuan, down 8.46 billion yuan [2]. - The proportion of rising stocks is 16.30%, down 13.55 percentage points; the Shibor is 1.465%, down 0.044 percentage points; the closing price of the IO at - the - money call option (2506) is 51.40, down 0.60; the implied volatility of the IO at - the - money call option is 13.67%, up 0.52 percentage points [2]. 3.3 Industry News - Eight departments including the National Administration of Financial Regulation jointly issued "Several Measures to Support the Financing of Small and Micro Enterprises", proposing to increase the issuance of first - time loans, credit loans, medium - and long - term loans, corporate - type loans, and private - type loans. Shanghai issued a special action plan to boost consumption, including measures such as promoting consumer goods replacement, meeting housing consumption needs, and increasing bond products for individual investors [2]. 3.4 Key Data to Watch - May 22, 21:45, US May SPGI Manufacturing PMI preliminary value; May 23, 7:01, Japan's April core CPI annual rate; May 23, 14:00, UK's April seasonally - adjusted retail sales monthly rate; May 23, 22:00, US April new home sales annualized total (in ten thousand households); May 26, 21:00, ECB President Lagarde's speech [3].

Group 1 - Shanghai government issued a plan to boost consumption, focusing on meeting housing demand and constructing a new real estate development model that emphasizes safety, comfort, sustainability, and intelligence [1] - The plan includes expanding the scope of comprehensive renovations for old neighborhoods and increasing the supply of affordable rental housing, particularly for young people [1] - The government aims to support residents' rigid and improvement housing needs and implement favorable tax policies for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market [1] Group 2 - Chengdu's plan emphasizes improving housing consumption and controlling new real estate supply while implementing a "three-color management" system for housing land transfer [2] - The strategy aims to direct housing land supply towards key development areas, industrial clusters, and subway lines [2] Group 3 - Vanke signed a loan agreement with Shenzhen Metro Group for up to 4.2 billion yuan and has received the funds [3] - A supplementary agreement was made to pledge up to 6 billion yuan of Vanke's stock as collateral for the loan, with a pledge rate of 70% [3] - If the shareholders' meeting does not approve the stock pledge, Vanke will need to provide alternative guarantees or repay the loan in full [3] Group 4 - Shoukai Co. announced the resignation of director Jiang Xiangyu due to personal reasons, and he will no longer hold any position in the company [4] - Greenland Holdings announced the retirement of Zhang Yun, who stepped down from his roles as director and executive president upon reaching the legal retirement age [5]

Group 1: Housing Loan Rate Adjustments - The interest rate for first-time personal housing provident fund loans for 5 years or less has been adjusted from 2.35% to 2.1%, and for over 5 years from 2.85% to 2.6% [1] - The interest rate for second-time personal housing provident fund loans for 5 years or less has been adjusted from 2.775% to 2.525%, and for over 5 years from 3.325% to 3.075% [1] - It is expected that the reduction in housing provident fund loan rates will save residents over 20 billion yuan in interest payments annually, supporting housing demand and stabilizing the real estate market [1] Group 2: Real Estate Market Activity in Hubei - During the "May Day" holiday, new residential property sales in Hubei increased by 52.5% year-on-year, indicating a robust supply and demand dynamic in the housing market [2] - Various promotional activities and housing expos were organized to stimulate market activity, focusing on core demands such as returning home for property purchases and educational needs [2][3] Group 3: Support for Homebuyers - Hubei has implemented "nanny-level" services for returning home buyers, including free transportation and online viewing options to facilitate property selection [3] - Educational resources have been emphasized as a key consideration for families purchasing homes, with initiatives to improve school access for buyers [4] Group 4: Cross-Industry Collaboration - Cities like Wuhan and Shiyan are promoting targeted housing support for young entrepreneurs and industry talents, including diverse housing loan products and incentives for home purchases [5] - The integration of various sectors, such as home buying, home furnishing, technology, and automotive, has created a comprehensive consumer experience, enhancing buyer engagement [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The "May Day Good Housing Festival" in Shenzhen attracted significant public interest, with approximately 40,000 attendees on the first day, highlighting a strong demand for housing, particularly for improved and policy-based housing options [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event featured the launch of 250 residential units in the popular Pengchen Yunzhu project, achieving a sales rate of approximately 92% on the opening day [1][3]. - Various exhibitors, including Deep Rail Group, showcased six residential projects covering a full product line to meet diverse housing needs [3]. Group 2: Promotions and Incentives - Deep Rail Group initiated a "全民推荐享3-5万元奖励" program and offered various limited-time purchasing incentives, including discounts and exclusive gifts for attendees [4]. - Special incentives for out-of-town buyers were introduced, including a range of welcome gifts and one-stop consultation services [5]. Group 3: Financial Services - A housing finance zone was established, providing one-stop financial services, including loan policy explanations and rate discounts, attracting considerable interest from attendees [7]. - Several banks introduced innovative financial products to support diverse consumer needs, such as home renovation loans with competitive rates and flexible repayment options [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Chongqing Municipal Government is seeking public opinion on a plan to boost consumption, which includes measures to enhance child-rearing support and promote housing consumption [1] Group 1: Child-Rearing Support - The plan includes the issuance of childcare subsidies in accordance with national policies [1] - It promotes shared parental leave between couples and encourages the exploration of spring and autumn breaks in primary and secondary schools [1] Group 2: Housing Consumption - The initiative aims to secure funding for the construction of affordable and rental housing, while continuing the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated rural housing [1] - It supports low-income families by providing rental subsidies and facilitates the use of housing provident fund for down payments and personal housing loans [1] - The plan also encourages the extraction of housing provident funds to support the installation of elevators in old urban residential areas [1]

"当前和今后一个时期，我国房地产市场仍有很大的发展空间，要进一步释放市场潜力，着力推动'好房 子'建设，加快构建房地产发展新模式，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。"4月15日，中共中央政治局常 委、国务院总理李强在北京调研时给出了这样的定调。 他表示，收购存量商品房用作保障性住房，是促进房地产市场止跌回稳、保障和改善民生的重要抓手。 要落实好各项相关政策，在收购主体、价格和用途方面给予城市政府更大自主权，并及时研究推出新的 支持措施。 中指研究院政策研究总监陈文静向《华夏时报》记者表示，促进住房消费是2025年扩内需的关键内容， 本次李强总理进一步强调房地产的发展潜力，提振了市场预期，也明确了促进住房消费的多项举措。未 来政策有望加快落实，预计北京优化调整房地产政策的空间也将逐渐打开，促进房地产市场进一步修 复，而北京市场修复也有望发挥示范效应，改善整体市场预期。 住房消费，作为一种内需 值得注意的是，此次调研是一次关于全方位扩大国内需求的重大活动。李强强调，沉着冷静应对外部冲 击带来的困难挑战，以更大力度促进消费、扩大内需、做强国内大循环，进一步释放我国超大规模市场 的活力潜力。 在走访纺织品、轻工产品、食品等 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][33] Core Insights - The report highlights the need for more supportive policies in the real estate sector due to the impact of Trump's "reciprocal" tariff policy, which may lead to short-term challenges for domestic exports. Housing consumption and real estate investment are crucial for stabilizing the economy and growth [3] - There is still room for further relaxation of purchase restrictions in core cities, potential interest rate cuts, and adjustments to housing provident fund rates to stimulate housing demand [3] - The report notes a short-term constraint on new home sales due to insufficient quality supply, with some developers still aiming for growth targets in 2025 despite a 3% year-on-year decline in new home transactions in 50 key cities [3] - The report suggests that the real estate sector presents certain speculative opportunities, with recommendations for specific companies based on their financial health and market positioning [3] Market Monitoring - New home transactions in 50 key cities decreased by 27.2% week-on-week, with a total of 20,000 units sold. The average daily transaction volume for new homes in March showed a 3% year-on-year decline but a 50% increase month-on-month [9][12] - The inventory of unsold properties decreased by 0.9%, with a depletion cycle of 20.7 months, indicating a slight improvement in market conditions [12] Capital Market Monitoring - The real estate sector saw a 0.9% decline in stock prices, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 1.37%. The current price-to-earnings ratio for the real estate sector is 35.46, placing it in the 91.6th percentile over the past five years [23][24] - The issuance of real estate bonds reached 3.72 billion yuan, with a net financing amount showing a slight increase [20]