证 券 研 究 报 告 光伏行业周报（20250512-20250518） 4 月印度光伏装机同比高增，光伏玻璃价格 推荐（维持） 有所松动 光伏产业链价格： （1）主材环节：据 InfoLink Consulting，本周多晶硅致密料/颗粒料平均价 37.0/35.0 元/kg，环比上周-5.1%/持平。182-183.75mm/182*210mm /210mm 单 晶 N 型硅片平均价 0.95/1.10/1.30 元/片，环比上周-5.0%/-4.3%/-5.8%。182- 183.75mm/182*210mm/210mm TOPCon 电池片价格报 0.260/0.265/0.280 元/W， 环比上周-1.9%/持平/持平。本周 182-183.75mm TOPCon 双玻组件价格报 0.680 元/W，环比上周-1.4%；210mm HJT 双玻组件价格报 0.840 元/W，环比上周- 0.6%。182*182-210/210mmTOPCon 组件-美国/欧洲报价 0.270/0.088 美元/W， 环比上周持平/持平。 行业研究 太阳能 2025 年 05 月 18 日 华创证券研究所 证券分 ...

• 多晶硅厂库存接近 26 万吨，全行业库存约 36-38 万吨，相当于三个多月 需求量，库存压力大。供需双弱背景下，现货价格具备下行驱动，短期内 难以接受高价。 • 多晶硅期货交割品标准高于现货，以 N 型料为主，采用品牌注册模式。盘 面净利越高越低，反映仓单资源紧张。上游生产成本约 4 万元以上，盘面 在 3.9-4 万时，上游有意愿出仓单，缓解仓单资源紧张局面。基本面偏弱， 短期内可通过交易仓单故事进行操作。 • 受新疆、宁夏工厂减产影响，5 月多晶硅排产预计降至 9 万吨，云南、四 川分水期电价下调或延后当地企业复产至 6 月或 7 月，但产能置换限制总 体供应增量。 • 中国光伏装机增速自 2024 年进入下行周期，预计 2025 年进一步下降。 136 号文规定 6 月起新并网光伏项目需参与电力现货交易，影响项目收益 率，或致三季度需求真空期，全年新增装机量预计同比减少约 40GW 至 240GW。 • 全球光伏装机市场中，中国、欧洲、美国增速均呈下降趋势，新兴市场虽 有亮点，但难改整体下行态势。欧洲受经济疲软和补贴退坡影响，美国受 关税和政策不确定性影响。 • 下游硅片库存自 2025 年 3、 ...

多晶硅成本及期货价格展望 20250511 摘要 • 多晶硅生产存在改良西门子法和 FBR 两种技术路线，后者在现金成本、生 产成本和完全成本上均有约 1 万元/吨的优势，但改良西门子法通过技术改 进有望缩小差距，未来市场竞争格局将受各自优势及发展潜力影响。 • 头部企业一季度现金成本上升主要由于产能利用率降低和品质提升增加电 耗，但部分企业通过优化用能结构显著降低成本，如采用自备电厂和外部 电源结合，成本从 4.3-4.4 万元/吨降至 3.8 万元/吨。 • 丰水期云南和四川项目复产可能影响内蒙项目，但配额限制下产能利用率 仅能达到 70%。欧盟碳税政策可能导致火电为主的内蒙地区与水电为主的 西南地区出现成本差异，影响竞争格局。 • 内蒙古基地在单体产能、优惠电价和工业硅价格下行方面具有成本优势， 云南未来有望逼近内蒙成本水平，但四川因新老产能混杂，成本仍高于内 蒙 2000-3,000 元/吨。 • 2025 年二三季度行业整体成本预计下降，主要受益于硅料价格下降和工 艺控制能力提升降低电耗。但电力市场化改革和欧盟碳关税可能推高绿电 价格，从而影响整体行业成本。 Q&A 当前光伏行业中，硅料生产成本的情 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On May 7, polysilicon showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The main contract 2506 closed at 35,520 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 3.14%. The position increased by 9,467 lots to 63,290 lots. The SMM N-type polysilicon material price was 40,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable N-type polysilicon material was also 40,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium over the main contract widened to 4,980 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon also showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The main contract 2506 closed at 8,290 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.96%. The position increased by 3,246 lots to 18,280 lots. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 9,617 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 silicon dropped to 8,550 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 205 yuan/ton. Before the holiday, traders cleared their inventories and pressured prices, and the downstream's willingness to stock up was lower than in previous years. After the holiday, the downstream demand still faced the pressure of a slowdown. In the short term, industrial silicon was difficult to break away from the bottom-finding rhythm due to the negative feedback from the downstream. For polysilicon, opportunities for the convergence of the spread between near and far months could be considered. Attention should be paid to whether new large-scale infrastructure or mandatory photovoltaic installation assessment policies would be introduced after the decline of distributed photovoltaics, which might trigger an oversold rebound [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research View - On May 7, polysilicon and industrial silicon both showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The downstream demand was weak, and industrial silicon was in a bottom-finding rhythm. Opportunities for the convergence of the spread between near and far months of polysilicon could be considered. Attention should be paid to relevant policies that might trigger an oversold rebound [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main and near-month contracts decreased by 25 yuan/ton. The prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions generally declined, with the largest decline of 100 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price dropped by 100 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed by 75 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main and near-month contracts decreased by 890 yuan/ton. The spot prices of N-type polysilicon material, dense material, and cauliflower material remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price remained unchanged, and the spot premium increased by 890 yuan/ton [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,200 yuan/ton [4]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 2,860 tons, the factory warehouse inventory decreased by 5,900 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 7,900 tons. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 10, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 60,000 tons, the factory warehouse inventory increased by 0,800 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0,800 tons [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost-side Prices**: Charts show the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][8][12]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [15][17][19]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory warehouse inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [22][26]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost and profit, and polysilicon cost and profit [29][31][38].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the photovoltaic sector is experiencing a significant boost in sentiment due to high installation growth, with the photovoltaic 50 ETF (159864) rising over 1.1% [1] - In the first quarter, domestic photovoltaic new installations reached 59.71 GW, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.5%, with March alone seeing installations of 20.24 GW, a remarkable increase of 124.39% year-on-year [1] - Western Securities forecasts that by the first quarter of 2025, the national photovoltaic new grid-connected capacity will reach 59.71 GW, with distributed photovoltaic installations at 36.31 GW, showing a year-on-year increase of 43.4% [1] Group 2 - Wind power installations also saw growth, with an addition of 14.62 GW in the same period, marking a year-on-year increase of 17.2% [1] - The recent widespread power outages in Europe highlight the vulnerability of the power grid, which is expected to increase demand for intelligent regulation functions in household and industrial storage, prompting companies to explore new storage configuration models [1] - The photovoltaic 50 ETF tracks the photovoltaic industry index (931151), which includes listed companies across the photovoltaic supply chain, reflecting the overall performance of China's photovoltaic industry [1]

证券研究报告 25Q1 期间费用率同比提升，减值压力有望趋缓 25Q1 公司期间费用率 7.9%，同比+1.7pct，其中销售/管理/研发/财务费用 率分别为 0.4%/1.7%/3.3%/2.5%，同比-0.1/+0.5/+0.5/+0.8pct，除销售费用 率外均有所上升。25Q1 公司经营性净现金流 1.7 亿元，同比-72.2%，主要 系销售收入下滑及销售回款减少。25Q1 公司资产/信用减值损失 0.2/0.3 亿 元，环比有所减少，随着行业价格回暖，预计公司整体减值压力有望趋缓。 光伏装机需求延续较快增长，关注产能复产及新点火节奏 福莱特 (6865 HK/601865 CH) 港股通 Q1 盈利环比改善，关注复产节奏 | 华泰研究 | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 4 月 | 29 日│中国内地/中国香港 | 玻璃 | 公司公布 25 年一季报：25Q1 收入/归母净利 40.8/1.1 亿元，同比 -28.8%/-86.0%，光伏玻璃价格企稳回升带动公司环比 24Q4 扭亏，4 月以 来光伏玻璃价格延续改善趋势，公司盈利能力环比有望延续改善，A/H ...

积极推广构网型储能！十部门印发交通运输与能源融合发展指导意见 文 | 国家能源局 2025年一季度，我国风电光伏发电合计新增装机7433万千瓦，累计装机达到14.82亿千瓦（其中 风电5.36亿千瓦，光伏发电9.46亿千瓦），首次超过火电装机（14.51亿千瓦）。未来随着风电光 伏装机新增装机持续快速增长，风电光伏装机超过火电将成为常态。 一季度，风电光伏合计发电量达到5364亿千瓦时，在全社会用电量中占比达到22.5%，较去年同 期提高4.3个百分点（带动非化石能源发电量占比达到39.8%，同比提高4.8个百分点）。受风电 光伏快速增长并叠加一季度全社会用电量同比增速较低（2.5%）因素影响，风电光伏合计发电量 较去年同期增加1110亿千瓦时，大幅超出全社会用电量增量（582亿千瓦时）。 相关阅读 国家能源局边广琦：持续鼓励新型储能技术多元化发展，加快完善新型储能参与市场机制 刘为：工商业储能装机"指数级增长"，但仍面临诸多挑战 权威发布 | 2024年度中国储能企业出货量八大榜单发布 《储能产业研究白皮书2025》发布：预计到2030年中国新型储能市场累计装机将超200GW 第十四届储能国际峰会暨展览会已 ...