专题：财经年会2026：预测与战略暨2025全球财富管理论坛 《财经》年会2026：预测与战略暨2025全球财富管理论坛于2025年12月18-20日在北京举行。德勤中国 创新及数字化服务主管合伙人金科表示，今年以来，大模型、智能体等技术的爆发式发展，推动企业一 把手将AI提升至战略高度，但行业转型仍存在普遍误区：重技术投入轻底层建设，忽视数据治理、组 织适配等核心要素。盲目跟风布局AI项目，缺乏对应用场景的深度理解，导致ROI不及预期。 他强调，成功的数智化转型需把握四大要素： 三是数据治理，积累高质量数据集，打通系统间的数据流转，为大模型应用奠定基础； 四是生态协同，通过与科技厂商合作，弥补自身数字化能力不足，实现资源互补。 展望未来，金科认为，"未来我们相信，面向业务场景、全链路的 AI 更广泛更深入的应用，毫无疑问是 未来三到五年非常要的特征。"同时全球化资产配置、数字货币等新兴领域将催生新的数字化需求。他 建议，机构需系统性规划转型路径，避免盲目投入，在技术创新与风险管控之间找到平衡，实现可持续 发展。 新浪声明：所有会议实录均为现场速记整理，未经演讲者审阅，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目 的， ...

Core Insights - China Pacific Insurance emphasizes a core strategy of dividend value in equity investments, which provides stability across market cycles and addresses net investment income pressures [1] - The company is focusing on diversified equity investment strategies to enhance returns and better cover customer guarantee costs [1] Group 1: Investment Strategies - The company has iterated its methodology for dividend insurance account configurations, establishing multiple layers of investment return targets to ensure sustainable allocation plans [1] - A "core + satellite" investment strategy is maintained, with a focus on optimizing equity allocation structures to achieve competitive investment returns [4] Group 2: Duration Management - Duration gap management has reached a new stage, with a significant increase in the allocation of long-term government bonds to compress duration gaps effectively [2] - The company believes that a reasonable duration gap can help create better long-term returns rather than pursuing an absolute zero gap [2] Group 3: Alternative Assets - The inclusion of alternative assets is seen as a way to enhance long-term returns and hedge against market volatility, with a focus on strategic emerging industries and innovative opportunities [5][6] - The alternative investment sector covers themes such as healthcare, technology innovation, mergers and acquisitions, and infrastructure, forming a resilient combination for steady returns [6] Group 4: Global Asset Allocation - Global asset allocation is essential for achieving long-term cost coverage, with a focus on building capabilities through platforms established in Hong Kong [7] - Effective risk management, particularly regarding currency fluctuations, is crucial for successful overseas investments [7] Group 5: Gold Investment - Gold is viewed as a niche product for risk diversification rather than a significant contributor to long-term returns, enhancing the company's diversified investment capabilities [8]

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is facing significant challenges due to a prolonged low interest rate environment, which affects both asset management and liability costs, leading to a structural transformation necessity [1][3]. Group 1: Current Economic Environment - The yield on China's 10-year government bonds has dropped to a historical low of 1.7% to 1.9%, indicating a potential long-term downward trend [1]. - The insurance business's nature results in a rigid liability cost structure, particularly with long-term policies locking in predetermined rates, creating a conflict between declining asset yields and fixed liability costs [3]. Group 2: Traditional Investment Strategies - Traditional "fixed income plus" strategies, which previously provided stable spreads, are becoming ineffective in the current low-rate environment [3]. - The supply of high-quality non-standard assets, such as infrastructure debt plans, is rapidly shrinking, leading to an "asset scarcity" phenomenon [4]. Group 3: Need for Structural Change - The industry consensus is that superficial adjustments are insufficient; a comprehensive overhaul of asset-liability management is required [4]. - A return to the core principles of insurance management—safety, profitability, and liquidity—is essential, with a focus on matching yield costs, duration structure, and liquidity [5]. Group 4: Changes in Fixed Income Asset Allocation - China Pacific Insurance has increased its allocation to long-term government bonds from 12.5% to 46.2% over the past eight years [6]. - There is a need for a balanced approach to duration management, as excessively pursuing a zero duration gap could increase asset pressure during market rebounds [6]. Group 5: Alternative and Equity Investments - The insurance asset management sector is increasingly incorporating alternative and equity assets to enhance long-term returns and mitigate inflation impacts [9]. - In the first three quarters of this year, the primary market for new fund raising reached 1.16 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8% [10]. Group 6: Global Investment Strategies - Global asset allocation is deemed essential, with a focus on building teams and managing foreign exchange risks effectively [12][13]. - The insurance industry must develop capabilities in foreign exchange risk management to succeed in overseas investments [14].

Core Insights - China Pacific Insurance emphasizes a core strategy of dividend value in equity investments, which provides stability across market cycles and addresses net investment income pressures [1] - The company is iterating its methodology for dividend insurance account allocations, focusing on differentiated investment return targets to ensure sustainable configurations [1] - The management discussed various topics including asset-liability duration strategies, equity investment configurations, long-term assessments, and global asset allocation [1] Equity Investment Strategy - The company maintains a "core + satellite" investment strategy, with a focus on dividend value that can withstand market cycles, while also diversifying satellite strategies [4] - The equity allocation is viewed as a scarce resource, requiring careful optimization to balance long-term sustainability against volatility risks [4] Duration Gap Management - Duration control is a critical aspect of fixed-income asset management, with a significant increase in long-term government bonds to effectively manage duration gaps [2] - The company believes that a reasonable duration gap can enhance long-term returns rather than pursuing an absolute zero gap [2] Alternative Assets - Alternative assets are seen as a means to enhance long-term returns and hedge against market volatility, with a focus on diversifying the investment portfolio [5] - The company is exploring various themes in its alternative investment sector, including healthcare, technology innovation, mergers and acquisitions, and infrastructure [6] Global Asset Allocation - The company recognizes the importance of global asset allocation for achieving long-term cost coverage and capitalizing on growth in emerging markets [7] - A comprehensive global allocation framework is necessary to manage risks, including currency risks, which have become increasingly important in overseas investments [7] Gold Investment - Gold is considered a niche product for insurance funds, primarily serving as a risk diversification tool rather than a significant contributor to long-term returns [8]

新华财经上海12月12日电（记者 王淑娟）作为金融市场的基准利率之一，我国10年国债收益率已跌破2%。与此同时，全球金融经济体系正发生深刻变化， 美元信用体系根基动摇。复杂多变的宏观经济环境下，保险公司如何跨越周期？ 截至2025年6月末，中国太保的资产管理规模达3.77万亿元，较上年末增长6.5%。面对内外部的复杂环境，这家以稳健著称的大型综合性保险集团是如何投 资的？在中国太保2025年资本市场开放日活动上，中国太保集团高管及来自太保寿险、太保资产、长江养老、太保资本的管理层就如何打造跨越经济周期的 资产负债管理体系发表见解。 优化策略：动态管控期限和结构匹配 做好资产负债管理是保险公司的生命线。中国太保如何看待市场走势，又是如何通过建立机制来应对挑战的？ 中国太保副总裁、首席投资官、财务负责人苏罡表示，主要发达经济体都经历过利率长期下行阶段，中国近年来利率也持续走低。10年期中国国债收益率目 前在1.7%至1.9%的区间内低位运行，这样的长期缓慢下降过程，是保险业面临的巨大挑战。 低利率市场环境下，对保险公司而言，资产负债管理水平是维系经营稳健、防控风险的核心能力，更是战略规划、业务布局与长期可持续发展 ...

Core Insights - China Pacific Insurance (CPIC) emphasizes a dividend value core strategy for equity investments, which provides stability across market cycles and addresses net investment income pressures [1] - The company is focusing on differentiated asset allocation strategies for its participating insurance accounts, aiming for sustainable and reasonable investment plans [1] - CPIC's management discussed various topics including asset-liability duration strategies, equity investment allocation, long-term assessments, and global asset allocation during their recent capital market open day [1] Equity Investment Strategy - CPIC maintains a "core + satellite" investment strategy, with a focus on dividend value that can withstand market fluctuations [6] - The company aims to optimize its equity allocation structure to achieve competitive investment returns while balancing long-term sustainability [6] - Long-term assessments are crucial for CPIC's asset management, with a three-year evaluation cycle being implemented to ensure effective investment strategies [6] Asset-Liability Management - The management highlights the importance of controlling duration gaps in asset-liability management, stating that a smaller gap is not always beneficial as it may sacrifice risk-return potential [2][4] - CPIC has increased its allocation to long-term government bonds to effectively manage duration gaps [2] - The company is exploring diversified new fixed-income sources while maintaining reasonable duration gaps to enhance long-term returns [4] Global Asset Allocation - CPIC recognizes the necessity of global asset allocation to achieve long-term cost coverage and to benefit from economic growth in emerging markets [8] - The company has established platforms in Hong Kong for property and casualty insurance, life insurance, and asset management to enhance its global investment capabilities [8] - Effective risk management, particularly regarding currency fluctuations, is essential for successful overseas investments [8] Alternative Investments - CPIC's alternative investment sector includes themes such as healthcare, technology innovation, mergers and acquisitions, and infrastructure, which collectively aim to enhance mid-to-long-term returns [7] - The company views public REITs as a stable source of dividends that can help mitigate market volatility [7] Duration Strategy Adjustments - As interest rates are expected to undergo fundamental changes by 2025, CPIC is revising its duration strategies for different insurance products, particularly focusing on effective duration for participating and universal insurance [5] - The company is developing a 2026 allocation plan that reflects differentiated duration strategies across various accounts and insurance types [5]

当前，中国资本市场正经历深刻变革，居民财富持续增长、养老金第三支柱加速建设、机构投资者占比稳步提升，叠加监管层对公募基金"回归本源、服 务实体"的明确导向，指数化投资迎来前所未有的发展机遇。 截至11月14日，全市场ETF最新规模超过5.7万亿元，较年初增加2万亿；ETF产品数量突破1353只，较年初增加314只。在这一历史性被动投资大发展的浪 潮中，"得ETF者得规模"正在照进现实。 凭借前瞻性的战略布局、深厚的专业积淀与持续的产品创新，博时基金把握机会，持续打造指数产品体系"博时指慧家"品牌，以智慧洞察市场脉络，以专 业构建投资工具，以责任服务国家战略。 截至当前，博时基金旗下指数产品线已全面拓展至宽基、行业主题、跨境、Smart Beta、商品、债券等多个领域，形成了结构完整、层次丰富、特色鲜明 的"全资产、全球市场、全策略主题"产品生态，致力于为不同风险偏好、投资目标和资金属性的客户提供个性化、多元化的资产配置解决方案。 规模领先、布局完善，十余年深耕铸就"智慧指数家族" 自2009年12月29日推出首只ETF产品以来，博时基金便开启了系统性布局指数化投资的征程。彼时，国内ETF市场尚处于起步阶段，投 ...

Core Viewpoint - The wealth management industry is evolving as a crucial link between capital and assets, focusing on creating long-term, stable value for clients amidst changing interest rates and wealth structures [1][2]. Group 1: Trends in Wealth Management - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is prominent, with funds shifting from traditional bank savings to wealth management products, funds, and capital markets, driven by a changing wealth structure [2][3]. - Current low interest rates are a fundamental driver of this trend, with bank deposit rates dropping below 1%, contrasting with previous years when rates were significantly higher [3][4]. - The potential for further capital market inflows remains significant, as the ratio of total deposits to A-share market capitalization is approximately 1.5 times, indicating room for growth [3][4]. Group 2: Balancing Client Expectations - Clients often seek both high returns and low volatility, creating a mismatch with financial realities in a declining yield environment [5][6]. - Effective solutions involve setting reasonable expectations and optimizing strategies, including product design to mitigate short-term volatility while enhancing returns [5][6]. - The shift from traditional "investor education" to a more supportive "investor companionship" approach is essential for helping clients understand products and manage risks effectively [6]. Group 3: Core Competencies for Future Success - The competition in the wealth management sector is shifting from scale expansion to a focus on core competencies, including global asset allocation, digital operations, and professional talent [7][8]. - Institutions are encouraged to differentiate between long-term strategic asset allocation and short-term tactical strategies to better navigate market fluctuations [7]. - Continuous improvement in client service quality, asset allocation capabilities, and digital transformation will be critical for the success of wealth management firms [8].

Core Views - The article emphasizes the importance of building a strong financial nation and the new historical mission for the wealth management industry, as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Group 1: Wealth Management Industry Dynamics - Wealth management serves as a crucial link between the funding and asset sides, playing a vital role in providing financial services to the real economy and achieving inclusive finance [2] - The rapid growth of household wealth in China is accompanied by a significant internal structural adjustment, notably the trend of "deposit migration" from traditional bank savings to wealth management products, funds, and capital markets [4] - The current phase of deposit migration is seen as a necessary outcome of optimizing asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment, with the trend expected to continue as market activity increases [5] Group 2: Factors Driving Deposit Migration - The fundamental change in the interest rate environment is identified as the core driver of the deposit migration trend, with current bank deposit rates significantly lower than those from 2019 to 2021 [6] - The total amount of deposits in China is approximately 1.5 times the total market capitalization of A-shares, indicating substantial potential for capital market inflows [6] Group 3: Balancing Client Expectations - Clients often express a desire for both high returns and low volatility, creating a mismatch with financial realities, which poses challenges for asset management institutions [7] - Solutions to this challenge include setting reasonable expectations and optimizing strategies, such as designing appropriate product structures to smooth short-term volatility [7] Group 4: Investor Education and Engagement - The concept of "investor companionship" is gaining traction, focusing on helping clients understand products and manage risks effectively, especially during market fluctuations [9] - Continuous and detailed investor engagement is crucial for smoothing client emotions and achieving long-term value [9] Group 5: Future Competitiveness in Wealth Management - The competition in the wealth management industry is shifting from scale expansion to a deep competition in core capabilities, including global asset allocation, digital operations, and professional talent [10] - Asset management institutions are encouraged to enhance their strategies and products to meet the growing demand for cross-border investments [10] Group 6: Long-term Value Creation - Key directions for the future include establishing a client-centered investment management system, improving service quality, and leveraging technology for business development [11] - The industry is entering a new growth era, where focusing on service, professional capabilities, and genuine client engagement will be essential for navigating challenges and creating long-term value [11]

Core Insights - The increasing number of private equity firms in mainland China obtaining the Hong Kong 9 license reflects a strong demand for global asset allocation capabilities [1][3] - The trend indicates that both large and small private equity firms are actively seeking to expand their business boundaries through the Hong Kong market [1][2] Group 1: Motivations for Obtaining Hong Kong 9 License - Private equity firms aim to diversify investment risks and enhance portfolio resilience by entering overseas markets [1] - The availability of diverse asset classes and financial instruments in global markets provides private equity firms with more opportunities to explore differentiated returns [1] - Growing investor demand for global asset allocation drives private equity firms to enhance cross-border service capabilities [1] - Global expansion is seen as a necessary strategy for private equity firms to overcome local competition and build international brands [1] Group 2: Characteristics of Licensed Firms - Among the 107 licensed private equity firms, 35 have assets under management exceeding 10 billion, while 19 have between 5 billion and 10 billion, indicating a significant presence of large firms in cross-border operations [1][2] - Smaller firms, with assets under management below 500 million, also show active participation, highlighting a diverse range of firms engaging in the Hong Kong market [1] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Subjective strategy private equity firms are more active in global expansion, with 69 out of 107 licensed firms employing this strategy, representing over 60% of the total [2] - In contrast, quantitative strategy firms account for 28, and mixed strategy firms for 10, indicating a preference for subjective strategies among larger firms [2] - Among the 10 newly licensed firms this year, both subjective and quantitative strategy firms are evenly represented, with 5 firms each [2] Group 4: Market Trends - The ongoing opening of China's capital markets is driving more private equity firms to establish a presence in Hong Kong, which serves as a crucial link between mainland and global markets [3] - The trend encompasses a wide range of firms, from large to small, and includes both subjective and quantitative strategy firms, all working towards building an international and diversified asset management system [3]