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集运日报:欧盟与美关税出台,胡赛升级海上封锁,近月保持基差修复,今日若回调可考虑加仓,设置好止损-20250728
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 05:12
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the shipping market is highly volatile, and the future freight rate trend is unclear. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. The short - term market may rebound, and long - term contracts should consider taking profits when prices rise and wait for a stable callback to determine the subsequent direction [1][3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Shipping Market Data - On July 25, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1110.57 points, down 3.26% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9%; the NCFI for the European route was 1422.9 points, down 1.20%; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1301.81 points, up 2.8%; the NCFI for the US West route was 1120.51 points, down 5.19% [1]. - Also on July 25, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1592.59 points, down 54.31 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1261.35 points, down 3.2%; the SCFI for the European route was 2090 USD/TEU, up 0.53%; the CCFI for the European route was 1787.24 points, down 0.9%; the SCFI for the US West route was 2067 USD/FEU, down 3.50%; the CCFI for the US West route was 880.99 points, down 6.4% [1]. Economic Data in Different Regions - In the Eurozone in June, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous 49.4), the preliminary services PMI was 50 (a two - month high, expected 50, previous 49.7), the preliminary composite PMI was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous 50.2), and the Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous - 6) [2]. - In June, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May and the same as in April, returning above the critical point [2]. - In the US in June, the preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI was 52 (the same as in May, higher than the expected 51, the highest since February); the preliminary services PMI was 53.1 (lower than the previous 53.7, higher than the expected 52.9, a two - month low); the preliminary composite PMI was 52.8 (lower than the previous 53, higher than the expected 52.1, a two - month low) [2]. Market Situation and Policy Impact - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, hitting re - export trade. Some shipping companies announced freight rate increases. The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. The spot market price range has been set, with small price increases to test the market, and the futures market rebounded slightly [3]. - On July 25, the main contract 2510 closed at 1527.5, down 2.71%, with a trading volume of 42,800 lots and an open interest of 50,000 lots, a decrease of 609 lots from the previous day [3]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers were previously advised to go long lightly on the 2510 contract below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300 points). If there is a further pullback today, consider taking profits; it was previously advised to go short lightly on the EC2512 contract [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [4]. - Long - term strategy: It was previously advised to take profits when each contract price rises, wait for a stable callback, and then determine the subsequent direction [4]. - Circuit breakers: The circuit breaker for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18% [4]. - Margin: The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28% [4]. - Intraday opening limit: The intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. Geopolitical News - On July 27, the US Middle East envoy said that the stalled cease - fire negotiations in the Gaza Strip were back on track, the Abraham Accords would be further expanded, and the US - Iran and Russia - Ukraine negotiations would also resume [5]. - On July 27, it was reported that Syrian and Israeli officials held talks in Paris to ease the situation in southern Syria but did not reach an agreement. All parties agreed to continue talks [5].
集运日报:加沙停火或将出现转机,市场观望情绪强,今日盘面若冲高可考虑部分止盈,符合日报预期。-20250711
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-07-11 02:27
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gaza ceasefire may see a turnaround, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood. Consider partial profit - taking if the market rises today, which meets the daily report's expectations [1] - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, the game is difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [3] Group 3: Summary of Related Indexes Shipping Indexes - On July 4 - 7, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1285.2 points, down 7.92% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) (European route) was 2258.04 points, up 6.3%; the NCFI (European route) was 1442.5 points, down 0.03%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1557.77 points, down 3.8%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1176.6 points, down 24.27% [1] - On July 4, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1763.49 points, down 98.02 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1342.99 points, down 1.9%; the SCFI European route price was 2101 USD/TEU, up 3.50%; the CCFI (European route) was 1694.30 points, up 3.3%; the SCFI US West route was 2089 USD/FEU, down 18.97%; the CCFI (US West route) was 1084.28 points, down 10.5% [1] PMI Indexes - Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI flash was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous 49.4); services PMI flash was 50 (2 - month high, expected 50, previous 49.7); composite PMI flash was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous 50.2); Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous - 8.1) [2] - China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 points higher than May, and the same as April, back above the critical point [2] - US June Markit manufacturing PMI flash was 52 (same as May, higher than expected 51, 2 - month high); services PMI flash was 53.1 (lower than previous 53.7, higher than expected 52.9, 2 - month low); composite PMI flash was 52.8 (lower than previous 53, higher than expected 52.1, 2 - month low) [2] Group 4: Trading Strategies Short - term Strategy - For risk - takers, it was recommended to go long lightly on the 2510 contract below 1300 (has made a profit of over 100 points). Consider partial profit - taking if the market rises today. It is recommended to go short lightly on the EC2512 contract above 1650 and set stop - loss and take - profit levels [3] Arbitrage Strategy - With the volatile international situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [3] Long - term Strategy - It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further judgments [3] Group 5: Market Conditions of Contracts - On July 10, the main contract 2508 closed at 2022.5, up 1.62%, with a trading volume of 3.46 million lots and an open interest of 3.09 million lots, a decrease of 403 lots from the previous day [3] - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16% [3] - The company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 26% [3] - The intraday opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [3]
集运日报:MSK上调地中海PSS,特政府继续加征多国关税,今日盘面若冲高可考虑部分止盈,符合日报预期。-20250710
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 05:36
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, trading is challenging, and it's recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [2] - The short - term market may rebound, and risk - takers can consider partial profit - taking when the price surges today. For long - term strategies, take profits when the price rises and wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback before determining the next direction [1][3] Summary by Related Contents Shipping Market Information - On July 7, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for European routes was 2258.04 points, up 6.3% from the previous period; for the US West routes, it was 1557.77 points, down 3.8% from the previous period. On July 4, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1285.2 points, down 7.92% from the previous period [1] - On July 4, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1763.49 points, down 98.02 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 2101 USD/TEU, up 3.50% from the previous period; the US West route was 2089 USD/FEU, down 18.97% from the previous period [1] - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index on July 4 was 1342.99 points, down 1.9% from the previous period; the European route was 1694.30 points, up 3.3% from the previous period; the US West route was 1084.28 points, down 10.5% from the previous period [1] Market News - The Trump administration has continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, and postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. Some shipping companies have announced price increases, and the spot market has a small price increase to test the market [2] - China and the US are expected to hold consultations on trade issues next month. Houthi has stated that it will attack Israeli ships, and the cease - fire negotiation in Gaza is ongoing, with the market full of mixed long and short information [2] Market Data - On July 9, the main contract 2508 closed at 2012.5, up 1.69%. The trading volume was 25,400 lots, and the open interest was 31,300 lots, a decrease of 3709 lots from the previous day [2] Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers were recommended to go long on the 2510 contract at below 1300 (with a profit margin of over 100 points). Consider partial profit - taking when the price surges today. For the EC2512 contract, go short lightly above 1650 and set stop - loss and take - profit levels [3] - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it's recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [3] - Long - term strategy: For each contract, take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [3] Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16% [3] - The company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 26% [3] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [3]
集运日报:美威胁铜与药品等关税,纽约铜隔夜大涨17%,宏观提振市场多头情绪,符合日报预期,建议轻仓参与或观望。-20250709
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 03:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game in the market is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [1][2]. - The short - term market may mainly rebound. Risk - preferring investors are advised to try to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 and try to go short on the EC2512 contract above 1650, setting stop - loss and take - profit levels. In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage strategies. For the long - term, it is advised to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further judgments [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Sentiment and Macro Factors - The threat of US tariffs on copper and pharmaceuticals led to a 17% overnight increase in New York copper, boosting market bullish sentiment [1]. - Trump's tariff policies, including the postponement of the "reciprocal tariff" implementation to August 1st and the announcement of tariff rates for 14 trading partners, have an impact on the market. The market has digested the negative information, and bullish sentiment is high [2][4]. Shipping Indexes - On July 7, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2258.04 points, up 6.3% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1557.77 points, down 3.8% [1]. - On July 4, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1285.2 points, down 7.92% from the previous period; the European route was 1442.5 points, down 0.03%; the US West route was 1176.6 points, down 24.27% [1]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price on July 4 was 1763.49 points, down 98.02 points from the previous period. The SCFI European route price was 2101 USD/TEU, up 3.50%; the US West route was 2089 USD/FEU, down 18.97% [1]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index on July 4 was 1342.99 points, down 1.9% from the previous period; the European route was 1694.30 points, up 3.3%; the US West route was 1084.28 points, down 10.5% [1]. Futures Market - On July 8, the main contract 2508 closed at 2006.2, with a 7.16% increase, a trading volume of 57,700 lots, and an open interest of 35,100 lots, an increase of 536 lots from the previous day [2]. - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16%, the margin is adjusted to 26%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [3]. PMI and Investor Confidence Index - The eurozone's June manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4, the service PMI was 50 (a two - month high), and the composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 [1]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May [1]. - The US June Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52, the service PMI was 53.1, and the composite PMI was 52.8 [1].
集运日报:SCFIS欧线持续上涨,特朗普加征多国关税,空单已建议全部止盈,建议轻仓参与或观望。-20250708
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 09:12
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - SCFIS on the European route continues to rise, while Trump's tariff hikes on multiple countries increase the difficulty of short - term market gaming. It is recommended to close all short positions and either participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [2][4]. - The market is filled with a mix of long and short information, and the game is intense. The market is in a weak and volatile state. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Rate Index - On July 7, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2258.04 points, up 6.3% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1557.77 points, down 3.8% [3]. - On July 4, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1285.2 points, down 7.92% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1442.5 points, down 0.03%; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1176.6 points, down 24.27% [3]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1763.49 points, down 98.02 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 2101 USD/TEU, up 3.50%; the SCFI price for the US - West route was 2089 USD/FEU, down 18.97% [3]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1342.99 points, down 1.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1694.30 points, up 3.3%; the CCFI for the US - West route was 1084.28 points, down 10.5% [3]. 3.2 Market Situation and Policy Impact - Trump's tariff hikes on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, further hit re - export trade. The tariff negotiation date has been postponed to August 1. The spot market price range is set, with small price increases to test the market, and the futures market has a slight rebound [4]. - The cease - fire agreement in Gaza has not been reached, the spot freight rate has temporarily stabilized, SCFIS continues to rise, and the market is filled with a mix of long and short information, with intense gaming and a weak and volatile futures market [4]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term futures market may mainly rebound. Short positions have been recommended to be closed. Risk - takers have been recommended to lightly test long positions below 1300 on the 2510 contract, with stop - loss and take - profit levels set [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then determine the subsequent direction [5]. 3.4 Contract - related Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 16% [5]. - The company's margin for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 26% [5]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2506 to 2604 is 100 lots [5].
又跟机构“对着干”,散户坚定抄底美股!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-04-11 12:17
Group 1 - Individual investors have shown resilience in investing in the U.S. stock market despite volatility caused by Trump's tariff measures, with a net purchase of $4 billion on a day when the market declined [1][2] - The S&P 500 index has experienced significant fluctuations, with a 10% decline year-to-date, indicating the challenges faced by individual investors in achieving breakeven on their portfolios [5][6] - Since April 2, when Trump announced large-scale reciprocal tariffs, individual investors have injected $11 billion into the stock market, a level significantly higher than the average over the past 12 months [5] Group 2 - Individual investors, particularly younger ones, have shifted their investment strategies to buy stocks during market downturns, as evidenced by their continued buying activity during recent market sell-offs [6] - The interest in specific stocks like Tesla (TSLA) and Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTA) remains strong among individual investors, contrasting with larger institutional investors who are moving towards lower-risk assets [5]