Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for renewed conflict between Israel and Iran, emphasizing the U.S. stance on sanctions and inflation concerns, which may impact future interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - The article provides predictions for the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, indicating a high probability of maintaining the current interest rate of 4.25%-4.50% on July 31, 2025, at 75.2% [4]. - There is a 68.1% chance of the rate being between 4.00%-4.25% on September 18, 2025, and a 51.3% chance of it being between 3.75%-4.00% on October 30, 2025 [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Technical Analysis - The article notes that gold prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a critical level at the Bollinger middle band around 3355, which will determine the market's direction [5]. - A bearish flag pattern is forming, indicating potential downward pressure on gold prices, with key support levels around 3300 [7]. - The article highlights the importance of the upper and lower boundaries of a rising wedge pattern, suggesting that a breach of these levels could lead to significant market movements [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is exploring a Plan B for tariffs, allowing for a maximum 15% tariff to be imposed within 150 days, following a court ruling that deemed the use of emergency economic powers for comprehensive tariffs illegal [1] Group 1: Legal and Strategic Context - A federal appeals court has allowed existing tariffs to remain in effect during the government's appeal process, but the overall tariff strategy is under threat due to recent legal challenges [1] - The administration is considering a contingency plan that involves utilizing a previously unused provision of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose tariffs across most sectors of the global economy [1] Group 2: Implementation and Process - The proposed plan would allow for tariffs of up to 15% to address trade imbalances with other countries, providing the Trump administration with additional time to tailor tariffs for each major trading partner [1] - The second step of this plan would involve a lengthy notice and comment process, which officials believe is more legally defensible compared to the recently ruled illegal tariff policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - Trump is shifting towards left-leaning policies to regain popularity, embracing ideas traditionally supported by progressive Democrats, such as drug price reductions and tax increases on the wealthy [1] Policy Changes - Trump has ordered pharmaceutical companies to reduce drug prices in the U.S., aligning his approach with proposals from Democratic Senator Bernie Sanders [1] - The administration is adopting stricter enforcement against price fraud, a policy typically favored by progressive Democrats [1] Political Implications - Many within the Republican Party are unsettled by Trump's adoption of these leftist policies, indicating a potential shift in party dynamics [1] - Analysts suggest that Trump is aware of the popularity of these policies and is motivated by a desire to maintain his approval ratings [1] Economic Context - Trump's economic policies, including tariffs, have negatively impacted the market, contributing to a decline in his approval ratings [1] - In response to these challenges, Trump is rapidly retracting his tariff plans [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have risen to a one-week high due to increased concerns over U.S. President Trump's tariff plans, which have heightened demand for safe-haven assets, while investors are closely monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting [1] Group 1 - Gold prices increased on Tuesday, reaching a one-week high [1] - Concerns regarding President Trump's tariff plans have intensified, contributing to the rise in gold prices [1] - The heightened demand for safe-haven assets is a key factor in the price increase [1] Group 2 - Investors are paying close attention to the forthcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting, which may influence market dynamics [1]

| 期限品种 | 收益率% | 基点 | | --- | --- | --- | | US 1-MO | 4.311 | +0.004 A | | US 2-MO | 4.309 | +0.016 ▲ | | US 3-MO | 4.32 | +0.019 A | | US 4-MO | 4.337 | +0.027 A | | US 6-MO | 4.254 | +0.047 A | | US 1-YR | 4.013 | +0.08 A | | US 2-YR | 3.824 | +0.123 ▲ | | US 3-YR | 3.809 | +0.121 A | | US 5-YR | 3.917 | +0.104 A | | US 7-YR | 4.104 | +0.09 A | | US 10-YR | 4.308 | +0.077 ▲ | | US 20-YR | 4.806 | +0.054 A | | US 30-YR | 4.789 | +0.052 A | 新华财经北京5月3日电美国劳工统计局周五（2日）公布的美国4月非农就业报告好于预期，缓解了对经济衰退的担忧，投资者抛售美债转向股市，2年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, emphasized that the market has not fully understood the implications of the tariff plan, which is at its highest level [1] Group 1 - The tariff plan is designed to address significant trade imbalances and protect domestic industries [1] - Yellen indicated that the current market reactions may not accurately reflect the long-term benefits of the tariff strategy [1] - The administration aims to ensure that tariffs are effectively utilized to support economic growth and job creation [1]

金十数据4月8日讯，潘森宏观分析师奥利弗•艾伦表示，由于关税打击了美国小型企业的信心，它们在 招聘和投资方面似乎会越来越谨慎。全美独立企业联盟（NFIB）周二公布的月度调查显示，自特朗普 赢得大选以来，3月份小型企业情绪首次跌至长期平均水平以下。艾伦说，这反映了对特朗普关税计划 影响的担忧和不确定性，并表明小企业将在未来几个月进一步削减招聘和投资计划。他在给客户的一份 报告中说，美联储的一线希望是，就业市场受到的打击将有助于缓解工资对通胀的压力。 市场分析：小型企业被特朗普的关税所困扰 ...

Report Summary 1. Core View - Zinc prices have short - term support, and attention should be paid to the benchmark landing [1] 2. Industry Data Summary 2.1 Futures Price and Volume - The closing price of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24,125 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the previous day; the closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,937.5 dollars/ton, up 0.34% [1] - The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 147,213 lots, a decrease of 96,601 lots; the trading volume of LME Zinc was 3,600 lots, a decrease of 6,577 lots [1] 2.2 Position and Premium - The open interest of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 131,122 lots, a decrease of 2,498 lots; the open interest of LME Zinc was 226,378 lots, an increase of 1,642 lots [1] - The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was - 10 yuan/ton, unchanged; the premium of LME CASH - 3M was - 13.78 dollars/ton, an increase of 4.77 dollars/ton [1] 2.3 Inventory - Shanghai Zinc futures inventory was 17,019 tons, a decrease of 76 tons; LME zinc inventory was 150,225 tons, a decrease of 3,425 tons [1] - LME zinc cancelled warrants were 93,500 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons [1] 2.4 Other Product Prices - The tax - included price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,345 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 22,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [1] 3. News - Trump is considering a "two - step" tariff plan. Before April 2, the UK and India are considering reducing taxes on the US. Trump may impose a 25% tariff on copper, causing the price of New York copper to reach a record high [2] 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of zinc is 1, indicating a neutral trend [2]