Report Information - Report Title: PTA Daily Report - Date: July 8, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Li Jin, Feng Zeren [1][3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - On July 7, the closing price of PTA's main futures contract TA2509 was 4,710 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton or 0.59%. With international crude oil fluctuating narrowly and PTA's fundamentals lacking major new news, PTA prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The closing price of PTA's main futures contract TA2509 on July 7 was 4,710 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 863,534 lots and a decrease of 2,777 lots. The closing price of TA2601 was 4,640 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 169,785 lots and an increase of 11,751 lots. Due to the narrow - range fluctuation of international crude oil and the lack of major new news in PTA fundamentals, PTA prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly [5] 3.2 Industry News - The strong US job market supports the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged. Investors await clarification of President Trump's tariff plans. OPEC and its allies are expected to further increase crude oil production in August, leading to a cautious decline in international oil prices. On July 4, the electronic trading price of WTI crude oil futures for August 2025 was $66.50 per barrel, down $0.50 or 0.75%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 was $68.30 per barrel, down $0.50 or 0.73%. The Asian xylene market continued to decline, with FOB South Korea closing at $715/ton and CFR China at $735/ton. The PTA price in the East China market was 4,802 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton, and the daily average negotiation basis was at a premium of 98 yuan/ton over futures 2509, remaining stable [6] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including international crude oil futures prices, upstream raw material spot prices, PX prices, MEG prices, PTA futures prices, basis, processing margins, spreads, PTA warehouse receipts, polyester factory load rates, PTA downstream product prices, and PTA downstream product inventories, with data sources from Wind and Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [10][12][16]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, stated that changes in legislation would not necessitate adjustments to the tariff plans [1] Group 1 - The current tariff plans are designed to remain stable despite potential legislative changes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for renewed conflict between Israel and Iran, emphasizing the U.S. stance on sanctions and inflation concerns, which may impact future interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - The article provides predictions for the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, indicating a high probability of maintaining the current interest rate of 4.25%-4.50% on July 31, 2025, at 75.2% [4]. - There is a 68.1% chance of the rate being between 4.00%-4.25% on September 18, 2025, and a 51.3% chance of it being between 3.75%-4.00% on October 30, 2025 [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Technical Analysis - The article notes that gold prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a critical level at the Bollinger middle band around 3355, which will determine the market's direction [5]. - A bearish flag pattern is forming, indicating potential downward pressure on gold prices, with key support levels around 3300 [7]. - The article highlights the importance of the upper and lower boundaries of a rising wedge pattern, suggesting that a breach of these levels could lead to significant market movements [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is exploring a Plan B for tariffs, allowing for a maximum 15% tariff to be imposed within 150 days, following a court ruling that deemed the use of emergency economic powers for comprehensive tariffs illegal [1] Group 1: Legal and Strategic Context - A federal appeals court has allowed existing tariffs to remain in effect during the government's appeal process, but the overall tariff strategy is under threat due to recent legal challenges [1] - The administration is considering a contingency plan that involves utilizing a previously unused provision of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose tariffs across most sectors of the global economy [1] Group 2: Implementation and Process - The proposed plan would allow for tariffs of up to 15% to address trade imbalances with other countries, providing the Trump administration with additional time to tailor tariffs for each major trading partner [1] - The second step of this plan would involve a lengthy notice and comment process, which officials believe is more legally defensible compared to the recently ruled illegal tariff policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - Trump is shifting towards left-leaning policies to regain popularity, embracing ideas traditionally supported by progressive Democrats, such as drug price reductions and tax increases on the wealthy [1] Policy Changes - Trump has ordered pharmaceutical companies to reduce drug prices in the U.S., aligning his approach with proposals from Democratic Senator Bernie Sanders [1] - The administration is adopting stricter enforcement against price fraud, a policy typically favored by progressive Democrats [1] Political Implications - Many within the Republican Party are unsettled by Trump's adoption of these leftist policies, indicating a potential shift in party dynamics [1] - Analysts suggest that Trump is aware of the popularity of these policies and is motivated by a desire to maintain his approval ratings [1] Economic Context - Trump's economic policies, including tariffs, have negatively impacted the market, contributing to a decline in his approval ratings [1] - In response to these challenges, Trump is rapidly retracting his tariff plans [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have risen to a one-week high due to increased concerns over U.S. President Trump's tariff plans, which have heightened demand for safe-haven assets, while investors are closely monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting [1] Group 1 - Gold prices increased on Tuesday, reaching a one-week high [1] - Concerns regarding President Trump's tariff plans have intensified, contributing to the rise in gold prices [1] - The heightened demand for safe-haven assets is a key factor in the price increase [1] Group 2 - Investors are paying close attention to the forthcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting, which may influence market dynamics [1]

| 期限品种 | 收益率% | 基点 | | --- | --- | --- | | US 1-MO | 4.311 | +0.004 A | | US 2-MO | 4.309 | +0.016 ▲ | | US 3-MO | 4.32 | +0.019 A | | US 4-MO | 4.337 | +0.027 A | | US 6-MO | 4.254 | +0.047 A | | US 1-YR | 4.013 | +0.08 A | | US 2-YR | 3.824 | +0.123 ▲ | | US 3-YR | 3.809 | +0.121 A | | US 5-YR | 3.917 | +0.104 A | | US 7-YR | 4.104 | +0.09 A | | US 10-YR | 4.308 | +0.077 ▲ | | US 20-YR | 4.806 | +0.054 A | | US 30-YR | 4.789 | +0.052 A | 新华财经北京5月3日电美国劳工统计局周五（2日）公布的美国4月非农就业报告好于预期，缓解了对经济衰退的担忧，投资者抛售美债转向股市，2年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, emphasized that the market has not fully understood the implications of the tariff plan, which is at its highest level [1] Group 1 - The tariff plan is designed to address significant trade imbalances and protect domestic industries [1] - Yellen indicated that the current market reactions may not accurately reflect the long-term benefits of the tariff strategy [1] - The administration aims to ensure that tariffs are effectively utilized to support economic growth and job creation [1]

Core Insights - Small businesses in the U.S. are experiencing a decline in confidence due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, leading to cautious hiring and investment decisions [1] Group 1: Small Business Sentiment - The NFIB's monthly survey indicates that small business sentiment fell below the long-term average for the first time since Trump's election, reflecting concerns over the impact of tariff policies [1] - Analyst Oliver Allen suggests that small businesses are likely to further cut back on hiring and investment plans in the coming months due to uncertainty surrounding the tariff impacts [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The potential downturn in the job market caused by these tariff-related challenges may help alleviate wage pressures on inflation, which is seen as a glimmer of hope for the Federal Reserve [1]

Report Summary 1. Core View - Zinc prices have short - term support, and attention should be paid to the benchmark landing [1] 2. Industry Data Summary 2.1 Futures Price and Volume - The closing price of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24,125 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the previous day; the closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,937.5 dollars/ton, up 0.34% [1] - The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 147,213 lots, a decrease of 96,601 lots; the trading volume of LME Zinc was 3,600 lots, a decrease of 6,577 lots [1] 2.2 Position and Premium - The open interest of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 131,122 lots, a decrease of 2,498 lots; the open interest of LME Zinc was 226,378 lots, an increase of 1,642 lots [1] - The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was - 10 yuan/ton, unchanged; the premium of LME CASH - 3M was - 13.78 dollars/ton, an increase of 4.77 dollars/ton [1] 2.3 Inventory - Shanghai Zinc futures inventory was 17,019 tons, a decrease of 76 tons; LME zinc inventory was 150,225 tons, a decrease of 3,425 tons [1] - LME zinc cancelled warrants were 93,500 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons [1] 2.4 Other Product Prices - The tax - included price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,345 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 22,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [1] 3. News - Trump is considering a "two - step" tariff plan. Before April 2, the UK and India are considering reducing taxes on the US. Trump may impose a 25% tariff on copper, causing the price of New York copper to reach a record high [2] 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of zinc is 1, indicating a neutral trend [2]