Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report provides an overview of the current prices and trends in various new materials across different sectors, highlighting price stability in some areas while noting fluctuations in others. Group 1: Military Industry New Materials - The price of electrolytic cobalt remains stable at 240,000 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week change of +0% [2] - The price of carbon fiber is 83.8 CNY/kg, also unchanged, with a gross profit of -8.68 CNY/kg [2] - Beryllium prices are stable [2] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Materials - The price of Li2O 5% lithium concentrate has reached 708 USD/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of +2.46% [3] - Prices for electric carbon, industrial carbon, and battery-grade lithium hydroxide are 65,600 CNY/ton, 63,900 CNY/ton, and 65,900 CNY/ton, showing decreases of -4.3%, -4.29%, and -1.5% respectively [3] - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is 433.70 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of +2.5% [3] Group 3: Photovoltaic New Materials - The price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon is 4.30 USD/kg, down by -0.9% [4] - EVA prices are at 11,100 CNY/ton, decreasing by -1.3% but remaining at a high level since 2013 [4] - The price of 3.2mm photovoltaic glass coating is stable at 24.0 CNY/sqm [4] Group 4: Nuclear Power New Materials - Prices for zirconium-related materials show mixed trends, with uranium prices increasing to 52.17 USD/lb, up by +0.6% [5] - Other zirconium prices are stable or slightly decreased [5] Group 5: Consumer Electronics New Materials - The price of high-purity gallium has decreased to 1,900.00 CNY/kg, down by -1.3% [6] - The price of germanium dioxide is stable at 9,900 CNY/kg, with 50% used for optical fibers and 15% for electronics and solar devices [6] Group 6: Other Materials - The prices of platinum, rhodium, and iridium are 243.00 CNY/g, 1,465.00 CNY/g, and 1,045.00 CNY/g respectively, with rhodium increasing by +2.1% [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals and new materials sector is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that supply-side factors are driving up prices for rare earths and tungsten, with a focus on tariff easing and opportunities in military new materials [4] - The report emphasizes the potential for price increases in rare earths due to export restrictions and the expected recovery of new materials companies as tariff concerns ease [7][11] - The military new materials sector is expected to see increased production in the second quarter due to heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly following recent conflicts between India and Pakistan [12] Summary by Sections Rare Earths - Recent price increases for rare earths include a 4.19% rise in praseodymium-neodymium oxide to 423,000 CNY/ton, a 2.17% increase in dysprosium oxide to 1,645,000 CNY/ton, and a 4.51% rise in terbium oxide to 7,075,000 CNY/ton [6][15] - The report notes that the export restrictions imposed by China on seven types of medium and heavy rare earth products have led to significant price increases in overseas markets, with dysprosium prices in Europe rising from 250-310 USD/kg to 700-1000 USD/kg (an increase of 204%) [6][10] - Recommendations for investment include companies such as Guangxi Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, and Northern Rare Earth [6] Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices have seen a 3.57% increase in molybdenum concentrate to 3,485 CNY/ton and a 2.26% rise in molybdenum iron (Mo60) to 226,000 CNY/ton [22] - The report indicates strong support from raw material costs and active bidding from steel mills, although the sustainability of demand needs further observation [22] Tungsten - Tungsten prices have increased recently, with black tungsten concentrate rising 3.40% to 152,000 CNY/ton and ammonium paratungstate increasing 3.24% to 223,000 CNY/ton [25] - The report notes a slight contraction in supply and stable demand, with new applications in photovoltaic cutting and robotics potentially expanding demand [25] Tin - Tin prices have shown weakness, with SHFE tin down 1.26% to 259,500 CNY/ton and LME tin down 1.11% to 31,700 USD/ton [36] - Supply issues due to low operating rates in refining enterprises and weak demand from the electronics sector are contributing to price fluctuations [36] Antimony - Antimony prices have remained stable, with antimony ingot prices down 1.05% to 235,000 CNY/ton and antimony concentrate prices stable at 202,500 CNY/ton [45] - The report highlights marginal improvements in supply but weak demand in certain sectors [45] New Materials - Expectations for tariff easing are rising, with a focus on new materials companies that have high export exposure, which may see recovery as tariff concerns diminish [11] - The military new materials sector is expected to benefit from increased production due to geopolitical tensions, with companies like Western Superconducting and Tunan Co. being highlighted for potential investment [12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Guotai Group, indicating a potential increase in stock price relative to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [1][7][14]. Core Views - Guotai Group is positioned as the only civil explosive production enterprise in Jiangxi Province, with a business model that integrates civil explosives, military new materials, and rail transit operations, indicating a stable development strategy [1][6][7]. - The company reported a revenue of 2.354 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 181 million yuan, down 40.84% year-on-year, primarily due to goodwill impairment [4][5][9]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to a 40.55% drop in rail transit automation business income and a contraction in the civil explosive market [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Guotai Group achieved a revenue of 2.354 billion yuan, down 7.34% year-on-year, and a net profit of 181 million yuan, down 40.84% year-on-year [4][9]. - The fourth quarter saw a significant loss of 37.7768 million yuan, marking a year-on-year decline of 147.29% [5]. - The civil explosive integrated business generated 1.646 billion yuan in revenue, a decrease of 5.70%, while the military new materials business saw a revenue increase of 55.21% to 269 million yuan [5][9]. Business Segments - The civil explosive business is expected to benefit from the construction of the Zhejiang-Jiangxi-Guangdong Canal, which may increase demand in the region [6][7]. - The military new materials segment is projected to grow significantly due to the successful progress of the energetic materials project, with production lines expected to come online by late 2025 and mid-2026 [6][7]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.49 yuan in 2025, 0.56 yuan in 2026, and 0.62 yuan in 2027, indicating a recovery trend after the decline in 2024 [7][9]. - Revenue is expected to grow to 2.681 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 13.88%, and further increase to 3.057 billion yuan in 2026 [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guotai Group [5] Core Views - The company's 2024 annual performance was significantly impacted by goodwill impairment, with total revenue of 2.354 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 181 million yuan, down 40.84% [1] - The rail transit automation and information technology segment saw a revenue drop of 40.55% to 145 million yuan due to intensified competition and strategic adjustments [1] - The integrated blasting business experienced a revenue of 1.646 billion yuan, a decline of 5.70%, but the gross margin improved by 4.41 percentage points to 40.24% [2] - The energetic materials project is expected to become a core growth driver, with a planned annual production capacity of 3,000 to 4,300 tons [3] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 to 340 million and 437 million yuan, respectively, while introducing a new forecast of 522 million yuan for 2027 [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Guotai Group achieved a revenue of 2.354 billion yuan, down from 2.541 billion yuan in 2023, with a net profit of 181 million yuan compared to 305 million yuan in the previous year [4][10] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.90 yuan per 10 shares [1] Business Segments - The rail transit segment's revenue fell to 145 million yuan, primarily due to competitive pressures and strategic changes [1] - The integrated blasting segment's revenue was 1.646 billion yuan, with a slight decrease in sales volume but improved gross margins [2] Growth Prospects - The energetic materials project is under development with an investment of 340 million yuan, expected to start production by September 2025 [3] - The company is the only explosive production enterprise in Jiangxi, providing a stable foundation for its integrated blasting business [3] Profitability and Valuation - The report projects a recovery in profitability with expected net profit growth rates of 88.36% in 2025 and 28.42% in 2026 [4][12] - The estimated P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 46 in 2024 to 25 in 2025, indicating potential valuation improvement [4][13]

（ 1）本周电解钴价格 24.00 万元 /吨，环比 +0% 。 本周 电解钴和钴粉比值 0.94 ，环比 +0% ； 电解钴 和硫酸钴价格比值为 4.87 ，环比 +0 % 。（ 2）碳纤维本周价格 83.8 元 /千克 ，环比 +0% 。 毛利 -18.31 元 /千克 。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 军工新材料： 价格持平 新能源车新材料：氧化镨钕价格下跌 （ 1 ）本周 Li2O 5% 锂精矿 中国到岸价 已达到 732 美元 /吨，环比 +0 % 。（ 2 ）本周电碳、工碳和电 池级氢氧化锂价格分别为 7.22 、 7.06 和 6.89 万元 /吨，环比 -1.4% 、 -0.80% 和 -0.4% 。电碳与工碳价差 为 2024年 11月以 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [7]. Core Viewpoints - Guotai Group is positioned as a regional leader in the civil explosives industry, with a diversified layout that includes military new materials and rail transit automation, which supports growth [1][15]. - The company's revenue and net profit are expected to recover as downstream demand gradually increases, with a stable performance in civil explosive product sales and significant breakthroughs in military new materials [2][25]. - The military budget in China is projected to grow, which will likely enhance the demand for military equipment, benefiting the company's product offerings [3][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Regional Leader in Civil Explosives - Guotai Group focuses on an integrated civil explosives business, including industrial explosives and blasting services, while also expanding into military new materials and rail transit automation [1][15]. - As the only civil explosive manufacturer in Jiangxi Province, the company holds a significant market advantage [1]. 2. Focus on Civil Explosives with Stable Profitability - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.704 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.92% year-on-year, and a net profit of 219 million yuan, down 3.16% year-on-year [2][25]. - From 2021 to 2023, the company's revenue grew from 1.988 billion yuan to 2.541 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 13.06% [2][25]. - The company expects to maintain revenue and profit growth trends due to its diversified business layout and improving downstream demand [2][25]. 3. Multi-Dimensional Layout in Military Products - China's military budget for 2024 is set at 1,665.54 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [3][33]. - The company is expanding its production capacity for energetic materials, with a new production line expected to significantly enhance its output [3][39]. - The military new materials business is anticipated to benefit from the increasing proportion of equipment expenditure in the military budget [3][40]. 4. Industry Supply-Side Concentration and Infrastructure Projects - The civil explosives industry is experiencing a steady upward trend, with increasing supply-side concentration [4][50]. - The construction of major infrastructure projects, such as the Gan-Yue Canal, is expected to boost downstream demand for civil explosives [4][54]. - The company has reported strong sales performance, with significant increases in production capacity utilization and sales rates [4][54].

Group 1: BC Equipment and Manufacturing Industry - BC is currently the most visible expansion direction, with leading manufacturers planning to add 40-65 GW/year of BC capacity from 2024 to 2027, alongside a significant increase from the existing 780 GW TOPCon upgrades [1] - BC technology offers significant equipment flexibility, primarily involving 2-3 laser processes and 1 coating process, with a notable increase in the use of LPCVD equipment [1] - Risks include slower-than-expected technological advancements in BC, reduced willingness to upgrade battery capacity, and potential market competition deterioration [1] Group 2: Banking Sector and Debt Market - Some commercial banks have recently sold bonds from OCI and AC accounts to realize floating profits, which may amplify market impacts in a volatile debt market [2] - The current selling behavior of banks is not expected to trigger a market panic, with short-term adjustments facing less pressure compared to long-term [2] Group 3: Policy and Economic Impact - Hohhot has introduced new childbirth subsidy details, with the maximum subsidy reaching 100,000 yuan per child, indicating a potential nationwide rollout of similar policies [4] - If extrapolated nationwide, the fiscal subsidy scale is estimated to reach 901 billion, 1,363 billion, and 1,825 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, still falling short of international standards [4] Group 4: Defense and Aerospace Industry - The 2025 Government Work Report highlights deep-sea technology for the first time, indicating a focus on deep-sea development and potential investment opportunities in acoustic and titanium materials [6] - Risks include accelerated competition among countries, potential underperformance in enterprise capacity expansion, and fluctuations in raw material costs [6] Group 5: Coal Industry - The coal sector has seen improved expectations, leading to a rise in stock prices, driven by high dividend styles, stable thermal coal prices, and optimized stock structures [8] - The bottom price expectation for coal is becoming clearer, with potential price increases if demand improves and inventory decreases [8] Group 6: Property Services Sector - The historical issues facing private property service companies have dissipated, with strong dividend attractiveness and sustainable cash flow [10] - The upcoming 2024 annual reports are expected to confirm high dividends and a vision for stable long-term development [10] Group 7: Tin Industry - The suspension of mining operations by Alphamin Resources in the Democratic Republic of Congo could lead to a significant reduction in global tin supply, potentially increasing tin prices above 300,000 yuan/ton [12] - The expected supply gap in 2025 may widen due to the suspension and slower-than-expected recovery of Myanmar's tin mines [12] Group 8: New Materials in Military Industry - Defense spending is projected to grow by 7.2% in 2025, indicating a recovery in demand for military materials and potential valuation recovery for upstream companies [13] - The military industry is at a turning point, with significant demand expected to be released in 2025 [13]