（ 1）本周电解钴价格 24.00 万元 /吨，环比 +0% 。 本周 电解钴和钴粉比值 0.94 ，环比 +0% ； 电解钴 和硫酸钴价格比值为 4.87 ，环比 +0 % 。（ 2）碳纤维本周价格 83.8 元 /千克 ，环比 +0% 。 毛利 -18.31 元 /千克 。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 军工新材料： 价格持平 新能源车新材料：氧化镨钕价格下跌 （ 1 ）本周 Li2O 5% 锂精矿 中国到岸价 已达到 732 美元 /吨，环比 +0 % 。（ 2 ）本周电碳、工碳和电 池级氢氧化锂价格分别为 7.22 、 7.06 和 6.89 万元 /吨，环比 -1.4% 、 -0.80% 和 -0.4% 。电碳与工碳价差 为 2024年 11月以 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [7]. Core Viewpoints - Guotai Group is positioned as a regional leader in the civil explosives industry, with a diversified layout that includes military new materials and rail transit automation, which supports growth [1][15]. - The company's revenue and net profit are expected to recover as downstream demand gradually increases, with a stable performance in civil explosive product sales and significant breakthroughs in military new materials [2][25]. - The military budget in China is projected to grow, which will likely enhance the demand for military equipment, benefiting the company's product offerings [3][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Regional Leader in Civil Explosives - Guotai Group focuses on an integrated civil explosives business, including industrial explosives and blasting services, while also expanding into military new materials and rail transit automation [1][15]. - As the only civil explosive manufacturer in Jiangxi Province, the company holds a significant market advantage [1]. 2. Focus on Civil Explosives with Stable Profitability - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.704 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.92% year-on-year, and a net profit of 219 million yuan, down 3.16% year-on-year [2][25]. - From 2021 to 2023, the company's revenue grew from 1.988 billion yuan to 2.541 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 13.06% [2][25]. - The company expects to maintain revenue and profit growth trends due to its diversified business layout and improving downstream demand [2][25]. 3. Multi-Dimensional Layout in Military Products - China's military budget for 2024 is set at 1,665.54 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [3][33]. - The company is expanding its production capacity for energetic materials, with a new production line expected to significantly enhance its output [3][39]. - The military new materials business is anticipated to benefit from the increasing proportion of equipment expenditure in the military budget [3][40]. 4. Industry Supply-Side Concentration and Infrastructure Projects - The civil explosives industry is experiencing a steady upward trend, with increasing supply-side concentration [4][50]. - The construction of major infrastructure projects, such as the Gan-Yue Canal, is expected to boost downstream demand for civil explosives [4][54]. - The company has reported strong sales performance, with significant increases in production capacity utilization and sales rates [4][54].

Group 1: BC Equipment and Manufacturing Industry - BC is currently the most visible expansion direction, with leading manufacturers planning to add 40-65 GW/year of BC capacity from 2024 to 2027, alongside a significant increase from the existing 780 GW TOPCon upgrades [1] - BC technology offers significant equipment flexibility, primarily involving 2-3 laser processes and 1 coating process, with a notable increase in the use of LPCVD equipment [1] - Risks include slower-than-expected technological advancements in BC, reduced willingness to upgrade battery capacity, and potential market competition deterioration [1] Group 2: Banking Sector and Debt Market - Some commercial banks have recently sold bonds from OCI and AC accounts to realize floating profits, which may amplify market impacts in a volatile debt market [2] - The current selling behavior of banks is not expected to trigger a market panic, with short-term adjustments facing less pressure compared to long-term [2] Group 3: Policy and Economic Impact - Hohhot has introduced new childbirth subsidy details, with the maximum subsidy reaching 100,000 yuan per child, indicating a potential nationwide rollout of similar policies [4] - If extrapolated nationwide, the fiscal subsidy scale is estimated to reach 901 billion, 1,363 billion, and 1,825 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, still falling short of international standards [4] Group 4: Defense and Aerospace Industry - The 2025 Government Work Report highlights deep-sea technology for the first time, indicating a focus on deep-sea development and potential investment opportunities in acoustic and titanium materials [6] - Risks include accelerated competition among countries, potential underperformance in enterprise capacity expansion, and fluctuations in raw material costs [6] Group 5: Coal Industry - The coal sector has seen improved expectations, leading to a rise in stock prices, driven by high dividend styles, stable thermal coal prices, and optimized stock structures [8] - The bottom price expectation for coal is becoming clearer, with potential price increases if demand improves and inventory decreases [8] Group 6: Property Services Sector - The historical issues facing private property service companies have dissipated, with strong dividend attractiveness and sustainable cash flow [10] - The upcoming 2024 annual reports are expected to confirm high dividends and a vision for stable long-term development [10] Group 7: Tin Industry - The suspension of mining operations by Alphamin Resources in the Democratic Republic of Congo could lead to a significant reduction in global tin supply, potentially increasing tin prices above 300,000 yuan/ton [12] - The expected supply gap in 2025 may widen due to the suspension and slower-than-expected recovery of Myanmar's tin mines [12] Group 8: New Materials in Military Industry - Defense spending is projected to grow by 7.2% in 2025, indicating a recovery in demand for military materials and potential valuation recovery for upstream companies [13] - The military industry is at a turning point, with significant demand expected to be released in 2025 [13]