Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: Iranian plants have started to shut down, leading to a resonance rebound in ports and inland areas, with a slight strengthening of the basis. Port inventories have decreased for two consecutive weeks, but there are many floating storage tanks. It is expected to return to inventory accumulation later. The 01 contract on the futures market offers a risk - free arbitrage opportunity for imports, and it is believed that the 01 contract will end with high inventories. It is advisable to do a 1 - 5 reverse spread on rallies [1]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of the two major state - owned petrochemical companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventories, while social inventories remain flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Import profits are around - 200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and other price spreads are fluctuating. LD prices are weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as new plant commissioning in 2025 [3]. - **Polypropylene**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profits are around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price spreads are neutral. PDH profits are around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable.拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [3]. - **PVC**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal overhauls, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to production capacity commissioning and export sustainability. Near - term export orders have declined slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide profits are under pressure due to PVC overhauls. Attention should be paid to subsequent export orders for caustic soda. PVC comprehensive profits are - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工率 [3]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From December 4 to December 10, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of methanol in different regions and related indicators such as import profits, basis, and MTO profits changed. For example, the import profit on December 4 was 7, and on December 10, the basis was 25 [1]. - **Market Situation**: Iranian plants have shut down, causing a resonance rebound in ports and inland areas. Ports have seen two consecutive weeks of inventory reduction, but there are many floating storage tanks. It is expected to return to inventory accumulation later. The 01 contract on the futures market offers an import risk - free arbitrage opportunity [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From December 4 to December 10, 2025, prices of Northeast Asian ethylene, various types of polyethylene in different regions, and related indicators such as import profits, basis, and two - oil inventories changed. For example, the import profit on December 4 was 139, and on December 10, the basis was - 30 [3]. - **Market Situation**: The inventory of the two major state - owned petrochemical companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventories, while social inventories remain flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. Import profits are around - 200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and other price spreads are fluctuating. LD prices are weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently [3]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From December 4 to December 10, 2025, prices of Shandong propylene, Northeast Asian propylene, various types of polypropylene in different regions, and related indicators such as export profits, basis, and two - oil inventories changed. For example, the export profit on December 4 was - 4, and on December 10, the basis was - 70 [3]. - **Market Situation**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profits are around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price spreads are neutral. PDH profits are around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. Future supply is expected to increase slightly [3]. PVC - **Price Data**: From December 4 to December 10, 2025, prices of Northwest calcium carbide, Shandong caustic soda, various types of PVC in different regions, and related indicators such as export profits, comprehensive profits, and basis changed. For example, the export profit on December 4 was 179, and on December 10, the basis was - 20 [3]. - **Market Situation**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal overhauls. Near - term export orders have declined slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide profits are under pressure due to PVC overhauls [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Urea new order transactions have slowed down, and spot prices have loosened. In the fourth - quarter, gas - based plant maintenance starts in December, while coal - based plant maintenance has gradually recovered. All new production capacities in 2025 have been put into operation, so the urea supply remains stable. Currently, off - season storage procurement is ongoing. The operating rates of compound fertilizers in the Northeast and Hubei regions continue to rise, and production scheduling in Shandong has increased, leading to an overall increase in the operating rate. Melamine plants have resumed production, and the operating rate has rebounded with rigid demand for procurement. As off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export procurement activities progress, urea enterprises' shipments have improved. Factory inventories have decreased, while port inventories have slightly increased. However, the subsequent procurement pace may slow down. Currently, new order procurement has slightly slowed down. Attention should be paid to the operating rate of compound fertilizers in the Northeast, the raw material procurement pace, the national off - season storage pace, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Urea Basis Structure - On December 8, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,646 yuan/ton (-27). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1,690 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong it was 1,690 yuan/ton (-30), and in Jiangsu it was 1,690 yuan/ton (-20). The basis in Shandong was 44 yuan/ton (-3), in Henan was 44 yuan/ton (+7), and in Jiangsu was 44 yuan/ton (+7) [1]. II. Urea Output - As of December 8, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 81.82% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.2905 billion tons (-73.4 million), and the port sample inventory was 0.105 billion tons (+5 million) [1]. III. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of December 8, 2025, the urea production profit was 160 yuan/ton (-30), and the export profit was 859 yuan/ton (-52). The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 40.53% (+3.47%), and the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 61.66% (+0.86%) [1]. IV. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - No specific data summary other than the export profit of 859 yuan/ton (-52) on December 8, 2025, is provided. V. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of December 8, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 40.53% (+3.47%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 61.66% (+0.86%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.35 days (+0.70) [1]. VI. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of December 8, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.2905 billion tons (-73.4 million), and the port sample inventory was 0.105 billion tons (+5 million) [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillate and correct, and close the cash - and - carry arbitrage positions opportunistically. - Inter - delivery: Wait and see. - Inter - commodity: None [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The PG futures price declined. The basis was -43 (-57), and the spread between January and February contracts was 109 (-19). Domestic civil LPG prices decreased, the spread between propane and civil LPG narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts was 4561 (-54). [1] - The prices of overseas paper goods decreased, the monthly spread strengthened, the change in the oil - gas price ratio between North Asia and North America was small. The domestic - overseas PG - CP spread was 126 (-2); PG - FEI was 114 (+3). The discounts for East China arrival, North America, and AFEI departure remained flat, the Middle East supply was tight with a discount of 35 US dollars (+13). Freight rates decreased slightly. [1] - The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -55 (+11). The profit of propylene production from PDH in Shandong slightly recovered, the alkylation unit slightly improved but was still poor, the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit was still good. [1] - The arrival volume increased, the external release decreased, factory inventories slightly increased, and port inventories increased. The PDH operating rate was 69.64% (-2.1), and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan was expected to restart next week. [1] - Overall, the domestic chemical sector was relatively strong, and civil demand increased, but the arrival volume was expected to be high in December; the Middle East supply was tight, but the market may tend to wait and see as the CP official price was approaching. Attention should also be paid to the weather and oil prices. [1] 3) Summary According to Related Data Daily Changes - On Thursday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4411 (+0), in Shandong was 4480 (+0), and in South China was 4530 (+0). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4460 (-20). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 101 (-21), and the spread between January and February contracts was 79 (-17). [1] - As of 15:00, FEI was 517 (+10) and CP was 502 (+3) US dollars per ton. [1] Weekly View - The PG futures price declined, the domestic civil LPG price decreased, the difference between propane and civil LPG narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased. [1] - Overseas paper goods prices declined, the monthly spread strengthened, the change in the oil - gas price ratio between North Asia and North America was small, and the domestic - overseas spreads changed. The discounts and freight rates had corresponding changes. [1] - The profit of some chemical production units changed, the arrival volume increased, the external release decreased, inventories increased, and the PDH operating rate decreased. [1] - The domestic chemical sector was relatively strong, civil demand increased, but the arrival volume was expected to be high in December, and the market may wait and see as the CP official price was approaching. Attention should be paid to the weather and oil prices. [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - PG futures prices declined, with the basis at -43 (-57) and the 01 - 02 spread at 109 (-19). Domestic LPG prices dropped, and the cheapest deliverable was East China LPG at 4315 (-49), with the propane - LPG price difference narrowing. [1] - Warehouse receipts decreased by 54 to 4561 lots. International paper - based prices fell, and the spread strengthened. The ratio of North Asian to North American oil and gas changed little. The domestic - international PG - CP spread was 126 (-2); PG - FEI was 114 (+3). [1] - The premium of East China arrival, North American, and AFEI departure remained flat. Middle Eastern supplies were tight, with a premium of $35 (+13). Freight rates declined slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -55 (+11). [1] - The profit of propylene production from Shandong PDH improved slightly; the alkylation unit improved slightly but remained poor; the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit remained good. [1] - Arrivals increased, external sales decreased, factory inventories increased slightly, and port inventories rose. The PDH operating rate was 69.64% (-2.1), and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan is expected to restart next week. [1] - Overall, domestic chemical demand is relatively strong, and civil demand is increasing, but more arrivals are expected in December. Middle Eastern supplies are tight, but as the CP official price announcement approaches, the market may be more inclined to wait - and - see. Additionally, weather and oil prices need to be monitored. [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Data Daily Changes - On Thursday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4310 (+0), in Shandong was 4450 (-10), and in South China was 4335 (+5). The price of ether - post - carbon four was 4480 (+10). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 5. The 01 - 02 spread was 89 (-1). FEI was 526.79 (+6.79) and CP was 498.8 (+5.8) dollars per ton. [1] Weekly Changes - The PG futures price declined. The basis was -43 (-57), and the 01 - 02 spread was 109 (-19). Domestic civil LPG prices dropped, and the cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4315 (-49). [1] - Warehouse receipts decreased by 54 to 4561 lots. International paper - based prices fell, and the spread strengthened. The ratio of North Asian to North American oil and gas changed little. The domestic - international PG - CP spread was 126 (-2); PG - FEI was 114 (+3). [1] - The premium of East China arrival, North American, and AFEI departure remained flat. Middle Eastern supplies were tight, with a premium of $35 (+13). Freight rates declined slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -55 (+11). [1] - The profit of propylene production from Shandong PDH improved slightly; the alkylation unit improved slightly but remained poor; the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit remained good. [1] - Arrivals increased, external sales decreased, factory inventories increased slightly, and port inventories rose. The PDH operating rate was 69.64% (-2.1), and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan is expected to restart next week. [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The PG main contract is running strongly. The domestic chemical industry is firm, and there are expectations for the civilian sector to strengthen during the peak season, but the market valuation is high. The international propane market pattern is loose. Attention should be paid to the weather and the situation of cold snaps in the United States [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Changes - On Wednesday, for civil gas, the price in East China was 4325 (-10), in Shandong was 4370 (-10), and in South China was 4345 (+0). The price of etherified C4 was 4590 (+0). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of -60 (-62), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 81 (+20). FEI was 502 (-10) and CP was 486 (+14) dollars per ton [4] Weekly Views - The PG main contract showed a strong trend. The basis was 1 (-101), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 93 (+21). The cheapest delivery products were civil gas in East China at 4364 (-10), in Shandong at 4440 (+60), and in South China at 4460 (+10); etherified C4 was 4630 (+130). The overseas paper goods prices rose, the oil - gas ratio weakened slightly, the month spread strengthened, the domestic - foreign price difference weakened, PG - CP reached 128 (-9), and PG - FEI reached 111 (-2). The discount strengthened. The arrival discount of propane in East China was 78 (+8), and the FOB discounts of propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were -2.75 dollars (+3.75), 22 dollars (+13), and 39 dollars (+13) respectively. The freight weakened slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -66 (+7). The naphtha crack spread changed little and remained at a relatively high level this year. The profit of propylene production from PDH in Shandong improved slightly, the profit of alkylation units deteriorated, the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit remained good. Domestic production decreased slightly, the arrival volume was limited, factory inventories decreased slightly, and port inventories decreased. The PDH operating rate was 71.74% (-3.71), Donghua Zhangjiagang restarted, and Juzhengyuan and Haiwei stopped for maintenance [4]

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 20, 2025 [3] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] Key Data Summary BR (Cis - Polybutadiene Rubber) - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the BR main contract (12) on November 19 was 10,705, up 200 from the previous day and 225 from the previous week. The open interest was 71,378, down 643 from the previous day and 4,987 from the previous week. The trading volume was 120,480, down 20,666 from the previous day but up 20,847 from the previous week. The warrant quantity was 12,030, down 220 from the previous day and 480 from the previous week. The long - short ratio was 29.67, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1. [4] - **Basis/Spread Data**: The cis - polybutadiene basis was - 100 on November 19 compared to the previous day and - 75 compared to the previous week. The styrene - butadiene basis was - 200 on November 19 compared to the previous day and - 75 compared to the previous week. The 12 - 01 spread was - 40 on November 19, down 45 from the previous day and 40 from the previous week. The 01 - 02 spread was 15 on November 19, down 5 from the previous day but up 10 from the previous week. The RU - BR spread was 4,735 on November 19, down 55 from the previous day and 175 from the previous week. The NR - BR spread was 1,775 on November 19, down 65 from the previous day and 145 from the previous week. [4] - **Spot Data**: The Shandong market price was 10,650 on November 19, up 100 from the previous day and 150 from the previous week. The Transfar market price was 10,450 on November 19, up 50 from the previous day and 30 from the previous week. The Qilu ex - factory price was 10,500 on November 19, with no daily change but up 200 from the previous week. The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1,350 on November 19, with no daily change but down 50 from the previous week. The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1,640 on November 19, with no daily change but down 45 from the previous week. [4] - **Profit Data**: The spot processing profit was 800 on November 19, down 104 from the previous day and 207 from the previous week. The import profit was - 699 on November 19, up 102 from the previous day and 532 from the previous week. The export profit was 1,744 on November 19, down 89 from the previous day and 431 from the previous week. [4] BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Data**: The Shandong market price was 7,500 on November 19, up 200 from the previous day and 350 from the previous week. The Jiangsu market price was 7,225 on November 19, up 175 from the previous day and 275 from the previous week. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 7,200 on November 19, up 200 from the previous day and 200 from the previous week. The CFR China price was 770 on November 19, with no daily change but down 20 from the previous week. [4] - **Profit Data**: The ethylene cracking profit was N/A on November 19. The carbon - four extraction profit was N/A on November 19. The butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 1,589 on November 19, up 175 from the previous day and 135 from the previous week. The import profit was 890 on November 19, up 176 from the previous day and 425 from the previous week. The export profit was - 1,460 on November 19, down 295 from the previous day. The styrene - butadiene production profit was 1,400 on November 19, down 50 from the previous day but up 200 from the previous week. The ABS production profit was N/A on November 19. The SBS production profit was - 360 on November 19, down 140 from the previous day and 200 from the previous week. [4] Data Sources - The data in the report is sourced from Mysteel and Wind [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report No explicit core view is presented in the provided content. The report mainly offers data on the market situation of synthetic rubber, including price, volume, basis, and profit information for BR and BD. 3. Summary by Related Catalog BR (Cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber) - **Futures Information**: On November 3, the BR主力合约(12) price was 10360, down 225 from the previous day and 445 from the previous week. The open interest was 37796, down 3692 from the previous day and 10822 from the previous week. The trading volume was 149850, up 31566 from the previous day and 37414 from the previous week. The warrant quantity remained at 8580, with no daily or weekly change. The long - short ratio was 22.03, down 2 from the previous day and 6 from the previous week [3]. - **Basis/Spread/Inter - Variety Spread**: The cis - butadiene basis was 140, down 25 from the previous day and 5 from the previous week. The styrene - butadiene basis was 740, up 125 from the previous day. The 12 - 01 spread was 30, up 45 from the previous week. The 01 - 02 spread was 5, up 15 from the previous day and 15 from the previous week. The RU - BR spread was 4735, up 235 from the previous day and 180 from the previous week. The NR - BR spread was 1840, up 195 from the previous day and 115 from the previous week [3]. - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 10500, down 250 from the previous day and 450 from the previous week. The Transfar market price was 10350, down 250 from the previous day and 550 from the previous week. The Qilu ex - factory price was 10500, down 500 from the previous day and 500 from the previous week. The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1450, with no daily change and down 25 from the previous week. The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1700, with no daily or weekly change [3]. - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was 961, up 10 from the previous day and 320 from the previous week. The import profit was - 1666, down 260 from the previous day and 277 from the previous week. The export profit was 2315, up 227 from the previous day and 419 from the previous week [3]. BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 7195, down 255 from the previous day and 755 from the previous week. The Jiangsu market price was 7200, down 200 from the previous day and 700 from the previous week. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 7200, down 300 from the previous day and 1000 from the previous week. The CFR China price was 850, down 60 from the previous day and 110 from the previous week [3]. - **Profit**: The carbon - four extraction profit was not available for calculation on November 3. The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 1376, down 312 from the previous day and 742 from the previous week. The import profit was 215, up 276 from the previous day and 167 from the previous week. The export profit was - 294, up 37 from the previous day and - 193 from the previous week. The Japanese production profit was 1238, down 275 from the previous day and 275 from the previous week. The ABS production profit and SBS production profit data were partially unavailable [3].