Report Title - "【中信期货航运】美西、欧洲计划运力高位回落,至美国发运量维持低位 -- 数据报告20250916" [1] Report Analysts - An Jierui,从业资格号:F03100682,投资咨询号: Z0021085 [1] - Wu Xilu,从业资格号:F03117373,投资咨询号:Z0022651 [1] Core Views - High - frequency shipping capacity shows mixed trends, with the planned capacity of the US West route rebounding month - on - month and the North European capacity rising slightly. The shipping volume of container ships carrying goods from China to the US has dropped again at a low level, and the arrival volume at US ports has declined in the past two weeks. Domestic port throughput fluctuates but remains higher than the same period last year. US booking data also shows a downward trend [4][5] Summary by Content High - frequency Shipping Capacity - In the 39th week (September 21 - 28 planned capacity), the capacity of the US West route dropped to 340,000 TEU, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.4%. The capacity of the US East route was 217,000 TEU, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% and a month - on - month increase of 31%. The capacity of the China - Southeast Asia route was operating at a high level, with a year - on - year positive growth of 37% but a narrowing increase, and a month - on - month decrease of 12.5% with an expanding decline. The capacity of the China - North Europe route in the 39th week decreased month - on - month, dropping to 325,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.2%. The capacity of the Mediterranean route increased by 46.7% year - on - year and decreased by 8% month - on - month [4] Shipping Volume of Container Ships Carrying Goods to the US - As of September 15, the shipping volume of container ships carrying goods from China to the US reached 444,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 8%, and the number was 54, a week - on - week decrease of 1.8%. The shipping volume of container ships carrying goods from Vietnam to the US rebounded last week, reaching 130,000 TEU, a week - on - week increase of 44% [4] Arrival Volume at US Ports - In the 37th week, the weekly arrival volume of imported goods at US ports was 531,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 20%. The weekly arrival volume of imported goods from China was 189,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 24.6%, and the arrival volume from Vietnam was 68,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 14.9%. This week, the weekly arrival volume of imported goods at US ports was 486,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 8.4%. The weekly arrival volume of imported goods from China was 170,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 10.5%, and the arrival volume from Vietnam was 61,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 9.9% [5] Domestic Port Throughput - In the week of September 14, the container throughput of domestic ports increased by 0.1% week - on - week and 13.5% year - on - year, reaching 665.2 million TEU [5] Vizion Booking Data - From August 18 - 25, the total US bookings were 336,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 5.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. From August 18 - 25, the US bookings from China were 122,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 3.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 30%. In the first three weeks of August, the average weekly total US bookings were 355,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 7.1% compared to July. The average weekly US bookings from China were 124,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 9.6% compared to July [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The global protein raw material supply is in surplus, and the upward momentum of soybean import costs needs further verification. The domestic soybean meal market is expected to show a range - bound trend, and the oil price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term. The domestic sugar price is generally bearish, while the cotton price may fluctuate at a high level. The egg price may rise steadily in the short - term, and the short - term trend of the hog price is weak, but there is potential support [3][5][10][13][16][18][21]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Market Situation**: On Wednesday, US soybeans fell due to concerns about demand, and there was no new information on Sino - US soybean trade. The domestic soybean meal futures rebounded slightly. Last week, domestic soybean meal and soybeans both accumulated inventory, and the soybean meal inventory was still high. The soybean good rate in the US has declined, and the Brazilian premium has rebounded after a decline. The USDA has significantly reduced the planting area, and the US soybean production has decreased by 1.08 million tons month - on - month [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The soybean import cost has been weakly stable recently. The domestic soybean meal market is expected to start destocking in September, which will support the oil mill's profit. It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to the profit and supply pressure at the upper end [5]. Oils and Fats - **Important Information**: In August 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased, while production decreased. Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to increase. Before the fourth Sino - US talks in late October or early November, the domestic soybean meal cost will gradually increase. If the US soybeans are purchased after the talks and the South American new crop has a good harvest, the domestic soybean meal price may decline. On Wednesday, the three major domestic oils and fats were weak, with large foreign capital short - selling [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats have fallen due to high valuations and weak commodity sentiment. Fundamentally, factors such as the US biodiesel policy, limited palm oil production potential in Southeast Asia, and low inventory support the price center. Palm oil may be bullish in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy [10]. Sugar - **Key Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. As of the end of August, the cumulative sales - to - production ratio in Guangxi increased year - on - year, while that in Yunnan decreased. The industrial inventory in Guangxi decreased, while that in Yunnan increased [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Since July, the domestic sugar import supply has increased, and there is an expectation of increased production in Guangxi in the new season. The overall view is bearish. The downward space depends on the international market [13]. Cotton - **Key Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell slightly. The global 2025/26 cotton production and ending inventory are expected to decrease compared to the previous month's forecast. As of August 31, the US cotton good rate decreased but was still at a relatively high level [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Fundamentally, with the approaching of the peak consumption season and low domestic inventory, the situation may improve. Technically, the cotton price may fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [16]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: The national egg price was stable with some increases. The supply was relatively stable, and the market was trading normally. The egg price may continue to be stable with some increases [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the increase in the elimination of laying hens and the increase in demand due to pre - festival stocking, the egg price may be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the medium - term pressure [18]. Hogs - **Spot Information**: The domestic hog price was mostly stable with some declines. The supply was abundant, and the demand was weak. The hog price may decline today, and some low - price areas may remain stable [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: After the failure of the expected rebound in the spot price, the market is trading the reality of oversupply. In September, the supply may still be weak, but there is potential support from demand and other factors. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the low - level rebound [21].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Log Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: May 19, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - After May, log demand will enter the traditional off - season, with expected reduced shipments in the coming weeks. New Zealand's shipments will seasonally decrease, and the current FOB price continues to decline. The fundamental weak - balance pattern persists. With a significant expected reduction in arrivals this week, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly [3][4] Group 4: Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of log contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 decreased on May 16 compared to May 15, with declines of - 0.63%, - 0.44%, and - 0.50% respectively. The 7 - 9, 7 - 11 spreads decreased, while the 9 - 11 spread increased. The basis of 07, 09, and 11 contracts increased [2] - Spot prices of most radiation pine at ports remained unchanged on May 16, except for the price of spruce 11.8 at Rizhao Port, which increased by 4.72%. The FOB price of radiation pine 4 - meter medium A decreased by - 3.51%, while that of spruce 11.8 meters remained unchanged [2] - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate decreased slightly, and the import theoretical cost decreased by - 4% [2] Group 5: Supply - Monthly port shipments in April increased by 24.17% compared to March, reaching 200.3 million cubic meters. The number of ships at the port increased by 13.79% [2] - Weekly major port inventories decreased. As of April 25, the national inventory decreased by 2.28% to 351 million cubic meters, with decreases in Shandong and Jiangsu [3] Group 6: Demand - Weekly average daily log out - bound volume decreased. As of April 25, the national average daily out - bound volume decreased by 10% to 6.15 million cubic meters, with decreases in Shandong and Jiangsu [3]