Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a continued decline in bank deposit rates, with many rates entering the "1" era, reflecting a broader trend influenced by market conditions and regulatory changes [1][2][3]. Deposit Rate Trends - As of June 2025, the average interest rates for various term deposits are as follows: 3-month at 0.949%, 6-month at 1.156%, 1-year at 1.287%, 2-year at 1.372%, 3-year at 1.695%, and 5-year at 1.538% [2]. - Compared to May, the rates have decreased across all terms, with the 3-month rate dropping by 5.5 basis points (BP), and the 5-year rate down by 3.5 BP [2]. Market Influences - The decline in deposit rates is anticipated due to the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) recent cuts in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), which has pressured banks' net interest margins [2][3]. - The net interest margin for commercial banks has narrowed to 1.43%, a decrease of 9 BP from the previous quarter [3]. Large Certificate of Deposit (CD) Trends - The average interest rates for large CDs have also decreased, with the 3-month rate at 1.179% and the 5-year rate remaining unchanged [4]. - The decline in rates has led to a significant reduction in the sales of large CDs, as the interest rate differential between regular deposits and large CDs has diminished [4][5]. Structural Deposit Changes - The average term for structured deposits has increased to 103 days, with an average expected middle yield of 1.78% [7]. - The average expected highest yield for structured deposits varies by bank type, with state-owned banks at 1.99% and foreign banks at 4.34% [7][8]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the downward trend in deposit rates will continue, driven by the need for banks to optimize their liability structures and manage costs effectively [5][6]. - The overall market conditions suggest that deposit rates may have further room for decline, influenced by multiple factors including policy rate adjustments and banks' cost control needs [8].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Rong360 Digital Technology Research Institute indicates a continued decline in bank deposit rates, with medium to long-term rates entering the "1 era" and 3-month rates entering the "0 era" [1] Group 1: Deposit Rate Trends - As of June 2025, the average interest rates for various term deposits are as follows: 3-month at 0.949%, 6-month at 1.156%, 1-year at 1.287%, 2-year at 1.372%, 3-year at 1.695%, and 5-year at 1.538% [2] - Compared to the previous month, the rates for 3-month, 6-month, 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year deposits have decreased by 5.5 BP, 5.6 BP, 5.2 BP, 5.6 BP, 1.6 BP, and 3.5 BP respectively [2] - The report also highlights that large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) have seen a decline in average rates across all terms, with the 3-month rate dropping by 5.96 BP and the 1-year rate by 8.39 BP [2] Group 2: Structured Deposits - In June 2025, the average term for RMB structured deposits was 103 days, an increase of 13 days from the previous month, while the average expected intermediate yield was 1.78%, down by 7 BP [3] - The average expected maximum yield for structured deposits was 2.14%, which decreased by 11 BP compared to the previous month [3] - Different types of banks showed varying average terms and yields for structured deposits, with state-owned banks at 70 days and an expected maximum yield of 1.99%, while foreign banks had an average term of 334 days and a maximum yield of 4.34% [4] Group 3: Performance by Underlying Assets - For structured deposits linked to foreign exchange, the average expected intermediate yield was 1.77%, down by 24 BP, while those linked to gold had a yield of 1.78%, down by 2 BP [4] - Structured deposits linked to indices, funds, and stocks saw an increase in average expected intermediate yield to 2.00%, with the maximum yield rising to 5.40%, an increase of 8 BP [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Rong360 Digital Technology Research Institute indicates a continued decline in bank deposit rates, with medium to long-term rates entering the "1 era" and 3-month rates entering the "0 era" [1] Group 1: Deposit Rate Trends - As of June 2025, the average deposit rates for various terms are as follows: 3-month at 0.949%, 6-month at 1.156%, 1-year at 1.287%, 2-year at 1.372%, 3-year at 1.695%, and 5-year at 1.538% [1][2] - The report shows a month-on-month decline in average rates across all terms, with 3-month rates down by 5.5 basis points, 6-month by 5.6 basis points, 1-year by 5.2 basis points, 2-year by 5.6 basis points, 3-year by 1.6 basis points, and 5-year by 3.5 basis points [2] Group 2: Large Certificate of Deposit Rates - For large certificates of deposit, the average rates in June 2025 are: 3-month at 1.179%, 6-month at 1.391%, 1-year at 1.477%, 2-year at 1.462%, 3-year at 1.768%, and 5-year at 1.700% [2] - All terms for large certificates of deposit also experienced a decline, with the 3-month rate down by 5.96 basis points, 6-month by 6.74 basis points, 1-year by 8.39 basis points, 2-year by 18.67 basis points, and 3-year by 30.01 basis points [2] Group 3: Structured Deposit Trends - The average term for RMB structured deposits in June 2025 is 103 days, an increase of 13 days from the previous month, with an average expected middle yield of 1.78%, down by 7 basis points [3] - Different types of banks show varying average terms for structured deposits, with state-owned banks at 70 days, joint-stock banks at 90 days, city commercial banks at 164 days, and foreign banks at 334 days [3] Group 4: Performance by Linked Assets - For structured deposits linked to different assets, the average expected middle yield for those linked to exchange rates is 1.77%, down by 24 basis points, while those linked to gold yield 1.78%, down by 2 basis points [4] - Structured deposits linked to indices, funds, and stocks show an average expected middle yield of 2.00%, which is an increase of 1 basis point, with the highest expected yield at 5.40%, up by 8 basis points [4]

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, China faces increasing internal and external challenges, leading to a moderately loose monetary policy by the central bank to support economic recovery and maintain liquidity [1][2]. Monetary Policy Overview - The central bank implemented a moderately loose monetary policy to address external shocks and maintain liquidity, balancing short-term and long-term goals [2][12]. - Key actions included adjusting the medium-term lending facility, increasing targeted loans for consumption and agriculture, and lowering policy interest rates [3][12]. Market Operations - The monetary policy operations in the first half of 2025 featured a focus on optimizing interest rate control mechanisms and enhancing structural monetary policy tools [3]. - A 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut was implemented, alongside various liquidity support measures [3][12]. - The central bank temporarily paused government bond purchases to maintain market stability [3]. Market Performance - The interbank market saw a total transaction volume of 786.23 trillion yuan, a decrease of 7.13% year-on-year, with pledged repos dominating the market [6]. - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit surged, with a total issuance of 17.4 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 6.6% increase year-on-year [7][8]. Interest Rate Trends - The first half of 2025 saw a three-phase interest rate trend: initial tightening due to deposit management, followed by easing as liquidity improved, and finally a slight tightening due to increased special bond issuance [5][13]. - The average interest rates for one-year interbank certificates of deposit decreased to around 1.65% by the end of June 2025 [8][15]. Future Outlook - The second half of 2025 is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, with continued support for economic recovery and low inflation [16][17]. - The central bank is likely to utilize various policy tools to enhance the transmission of monetary policy and support the real economy [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The trend of decreasing business loan interest rates is emerging, similar to the previous competition in consumer loan rates, with some banks offering rates below 3% and even as low as 2.15% for secured loans [1][2][3]. Group 1: Current Interest Rate Trends - Many banks, including state-owned and joint-stock banks, are now offering business loan rates below 3%, with some products like "mortgage quick loans" available at rates as low as 2.60% [2]. - In regions outside Guangdong, such as Sichuan, banks are also offering competitive rates, with one bank providing a 1-year mortgage-backed business loan at 2.15% for high-quality collateral [2]. - Some larger banks maintain higher rates, with one reporting a pure credit business loan rate of 3.6% and a secured loan rate around 3% [3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Rate Changes - The decline in business loan rates is attributed to insufficient credit demand from economic entities and policy initiatives aimed at reducing financing costs for the real economy [1][7]. - The People's Bank of China has reported a slowdown in the growth of short-term and medium-term business loans, indicating a decrease in demand [8]. Group 3: Implications for Banks - Lower business loan rates may compress net interest margins and reduce banks' profitability, particularly affecting smaller banks more than larger ones due to their reliance on interest income [9][10]. - Experts suggest that banks should innovate financial products and focus on effective market demand to balance business expansion and asset quality [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - A price war for business loans among banks targeting small and micro enterprises has emerged following tightened regulations on consumer loans, with many banks lowering interest rates to below 3% [1][8]. Group 1: Business Loan Interest Rates - Several banks, including state-owned and joint-stock banks, have reduced business loan interest rates to below 3%, while some smaller banks struggle to keep up [1][8]. - The interest rate for the "Business Loan" product from China Merchants Bank is as low as 2.68%, with a maximum loan amount of 20 million yuan [3][6]. - The approval process for business loans has improved, with some banks reducing the approval time for loans under 1 million yuan to as little as 3 working days [6][12]. Group 2: Market Competition and Disparities - The competition in the business loan market has intensified, with significant interest rate disparities among banks, particularly between large state-owned banks and smaller regional banks [8][9]. - Some regional banks in the northeastern part of China have interest rates above 4%, while banks in the southeastern coastal regions offer rates below 2.5% due to a more favorable credit environment [8][9]. - The use of big data models for risk assessment has led to a more uniform interest rate for similar clients, but it has also given rise to issues with intermediaries manipulating client information to secure better loan terms [9][10]. Group 3: Commercial Logic Behind Low Rates - Banks are promoting low-interest business loans as a strategy to attract creditworthy clients, which can lead to additional revenue from services like payroll and wealth management [11][12]. - Despite the decline in business loan interest rates, the actual loan disbursement may not meet expectations due to increased difficulty in acquiring quality small and micro clients [12]. - Future trends may see further segmentation in the business loan market, with more specialized products tailored to specific industries and scenarios [12].

Core Viewpoint - The General Administration of Customs has announced a change in the calculation of interest for the deposit of restricted processing trade goods, effective from August 1, 2025, aligning it with market interest rates [1] Group 1 - The new interest calculation will be based on the bank's current deposit interest rate [1] - This adjustment is part of the broader trend towards interest rate marketization reform [1] - The new announcement supersedes the previous announcement No. 62 from 2017 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) maintains a supportive monetary policy stance, implementing various measures to bolster economic recovery and stabilize financial markets, with expectations for further easing in the second half of the year [1][2][3]. Group 1: Quantity Tools - In May, the PBOC lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [1]. - From March to June, the PBOC conducted four consecutive months of excess renewals of the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and utilized reverse repos to manage liquidity [1]. - The PBOC's flexible use of quantity-based monetary policy tools has maintained ample liquidity, supporting the ongoing economic recovery [1]. Group 2: Price Tools - In May, the PBOC reduced the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points, leading to a corresponding decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [2]. - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was approximately 3.2% in May, down about 50 basis points year-on-year, while the average for personal housing loans was around 3.1%, down about 55 basis points [2]. - The continuous deepening of interest rate marketization reforms has created a favorable environment for price-based monetary policy tools [2]. Group 3: Structural Tools - The PBOC increased the quotas for re-lending to support agriculture and small enterprises by 300 billion yuan each, and established a 500 billion yuan re-lending facility for consumer services and elderly care [3][4]. - The central bank is expected to continue enhancing structural monetary policy tools to support key sectors such as technology innovation and consumption [3][4]. - New policy tools are anticipated to be introduced, focusing on technology, consumption, foreign trade, and real estate [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - Major banks in China are withdrawing long-term large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs), indicating a significant market adjustment with interest rates dropping to the "1" range [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Changes - Several large and medium-sized banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and China Merchants Bank, have completely removed five-year large-denomination CDs from their offerings [2] - The majority of banks now primarily offer large-denomination CDs with a maximum term of two years, with three-year products becoming increasingly scarce [2][3] - Interest rates for large-denomination CDs have significantly decreased, with rates for two-year products generally ranging from 0.9% to 1.4%, and three-year products hovering between 1.55% and 1.75% [2] Group 2: Bank Strategies - Banks are withdrawing long-term large-denomination CDs to avoid high-cost deposits and reduce interest payment costs, reflecting a structural shift in response to monetary policy [3] - The trend indicates a move towards a shorter-term deposit structure, which may become the norm, impacting both banks and depositors [3] - This shift is expected to alleviate net interest margin pressures for banks while increasing the need for effective liquidity management [3] Group 3: Implications for Depositors - The exit of long-term large-denomination CDs will reshape traditional conservative investment paths for depositors [4] - Depositors are encouraged to explore alternative products such as government bonds, cash management products, money market funds, fixed-income products, and insurance products [4] - Future trends suggest a normalization of declining interest rates and a reduced reliance on long-term high-interest liabilities, with banks potentially offering differentiated interest rates through mechanisms like "white lists" [4] Group 4: Innovation and Service Upgrades - Banks are encouraged to innovate in product offerings, such as introducing "principal-protected + floating return" structured deposits to balance safety and yield [5] - There is a push for integrated wealth management services, creating one-stop accounts that combine deposits and investments to enhance service efficiency [5] - Banks should focus on digital transformation to improve service efficiency and reduce operational costs [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and deposit rates by major banks is expected to stimulate the real economy and support high-quality development in the banking sector [2][5][8] Group 1: LPR Adjustment - The LPR for one year and five years has decreased by 10 basis points to 3% and 3.5% respectively, marking the first adjustment of the year [1][3] - The adjustment follows a reduction in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate by 10 basis points, which is now seen as a new pricing anchor for the LPR [4][3] - The LPR's decline is part of a broader monetary policy easing aimed at reducing borrowing costs for medium to long-term financing [5][8] Group 2: Deposit Rate Changes - Major banks, including six state-owned commercial banks, have lowered their RMB deposit rates by 5 to 25 basis points [1][6] - The adjustments include a 5 basis point reduction in demand deposit rates and a 15 to 25 basis point reduction in various term deposit rates [6][7] - This move is anticipated to help banks lower funding costs and stabilize net interest margins, enhancing their ability to support the real economy [7][8] Group 3: Impact on the Real Economy - The dual reduction in lending and deposit rates is expected to lower overall financing costs, thereby encouraging investment and production [8] - Continuous policy support from fiscal, monetary, and industrial sectors is enhancing market confidence and directing more funds towards capital markets and real enterprises [8] - The banking sector is urged to utilize various structural monetary policy tools to direct credit resources towards key areas of the real economy [8]