Employment Data Summary - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, slightly exceeding the expectation of 130,000[2] - Job growth was concentrated in three sectors: education and healthcare services (+87,000), leisure and hospitality (+48,000), and finance (+13,000)[2] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, with a slight increase in the labor force participation rate from 62.6% to 62.4%[4] Wage Growth Insights - Hourly wage growth was 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%, and year-on-year growth was 3.9%, up from a revised 3.8%[3] - The average weekly hours worked remained at 34.3 hours, indicating stable labor income growth[3] - Wage growth is crucial for protecting consumer purchasing power, especially for low- and middle-income groups, amid inflation concerns[5] Market Reactions and Economic Outlook - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 61.3% to 51.8%[3] - The anticipated number of rate cuts for the year decreased from 2.1 to 1.8, and the year-end policy rate expectation rose from 3.795% to 3.886%[3] - Following the report, U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 1.05% and the Nasdaq up 1.2%, indicating a rebound in risk appetite[3]

Core Insights - The unemployment rate in the Philippines rose to 4.1% in April, marking the second consecutive month of increase, with the number of unemployed reaching 2.06 million [1] - The unemployment rates for February and March were 3.8% and 3.9%, respectively, indicating a month-over-month increase and a year-over-year rise of 0.1 percentage points [1] - The number of unemployed increased by 130,000 from March to April [1] Employment Sector Analysis - The services sector remains the largest employer in the Philippines, with 30.12 million jobs, accounting for 61.9% of total employment [1] - Agriculture and industry represent 20.6% and 17.5% of total employment, respectively [1] - From January to April, employment in agriculture, accommodation and food services, and transportation and warehousing saw a significant decline, while administrative and support services, construction, and fisheries experienced job growth [1] Employment Quality and Youth Participation - The underemployment rate in April rose to 14.6%, up from 13.4% in March, indicating that 7.09 million workers are seeking more hours or better job opportunities [1] - The labor force participation rate for the 15 to 24 age group increased from 29.4% to 31.8%, suggesting more youth are entering the labor market [1] - However, the unemployment rate for this age group also increased from 11.0% to 11.5%, reflecting heightened employment pressure among young individuals [1]

Group 1 - The unemployment rate in the Philippines for March is reported at 3.9%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.9%, down 2.4 percentage points year-on-year and lower than 64.5% in February [1] - The total labor force dropped to 49.96 million from 51.15 million a year ago and 51.09 million in February, indicating a weakening labor market [1] Group 2 - The employed population in March decreased to 48.02 million, lower than 49.15 million in both the previous year and February [1] - The number of unemployed individuals in March was 1.93 million, a decrease of 70,000 from the previous year and slightly lower than 1.94 million in February [1] - The services sector accounted for the majority of employment, with 29.77 million jobs, representing 62.0% of total employment [1] Group 3 - The underemployment rate rose to 13.4% in March, up from 11.0% a year ago and 10.1% in February, indicating that 6.44 million workers are seeking more hours or better job opportunities [2] - The labor force participation rate for the 15 to 24 age group fell to 29.4% from 33.3% a year ago, while the unemployment rate for this group increased from 8.7% to 11.0%, highlighting increased pressure on youth employment [2]

Group 1 - Strong employment growth with an increase of 177,000 jobs in April, despite a downward revision of 58,000 jobs in the previous two months [1] - Unemployment rate remains stable at 4.2%, while labor force participation rate rises to 62.6% [1] - Average hourly wage growth slows to 0.2% month-over-month, with a year-over-year increase of 3.8% [1] Group 2 - Healthcare sector added 51,000 jobs, while manufacturing lost 1,000 jobs; federal government reduced 9,000 jobs in April, totaling a loss of 26,000 jobs since January [1] - Market reaction includes reduced bets on Fed rate cuts, rising stock index futures, and a recovery in the dollar index, alongside an increase in two-year Treasury yields [1]

Core Viewpoint - The non-farm payroll report does not reflect the impact of "Tama Reform," indicating deeper concerns about the labor market and economic stability [1][9]. Summary by Sections Non-Farm Payroll Data - The February non-farm payroll report showed an increase of 151,000 jobs, slightly below the expected 160,000, with the previous value at 125,000. The federal government employment decreased by 10,000, while the private sector maintained a steady job growth of 140,000, consistent with the average over the past two years [3]. Economic Indicators - Nominal wage growth and total income in the household sector remain resilient, suggesting that consumer spending power is still intact, which reduces the risk of a sharp economic slowdown [4]. Immediate Concerns - The unemployment rate rose from 4.01% to 4.14%, and the labor force participation rate fell from 62.6% to 62.4%. This divergence indicates a potential slowdown in labor demand, despite the overall labor market appearing stable [5]. - The proportion of multiple jobholders has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, indicating that lower-income individuals are seeking additional income sources due to high prices. The recovery of prime-age employment has stagnated or declined, suggesting a balance between labor supply and demand [6][7]. - The broadest unemployment rate (U-6) has significantly increased, reflecting a potential weakening in labor demand as more individuals are taking part-time jobs for economic reasons [8]. Government Employment Impact - The non-farm report does not capture the effects of the "Tama Reform," particularly the end of the first round of federal government downsizing, which allowed employees to apply for paid leave until September 30, 2025. Approximately 77,000 employees, or 3.8% of federal workers, opted for this program, which is below the initial target of 5%-10% [9][10]. - The ongoing second round of downsizing plans requires agencies to submit layoff plans by April 14, 2025, which may lead to significant changes in employment data as government layoffs are not easily offset by private sector job growth [10]. Political and Economic Outlook - The increasing divide in political perceptions regarding Trump may exert additional pressure on non-farm employment figures. The Federal Reserve is expected to focus on monetary tactics rather than a cohesive monetary policy moving forward [11].