1. Report Information - Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Date: December 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 3. Core View - The short - term rebound of domestic soybean meal is mainly due to news of customs clearance delays and oil mill shutdowns, but the high inventory is difficult to consume. Once the market returns to fundamentals, soybean meal may have a supplementary decline, especially for the 05 contract priced by Brazilian soybean costs. Short - term operation advice is to go short on rallies and pay attention to the support of the outer market [6]. 4. Summary by Section 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3099, the closing price was 3092, down 7 or 0.23%, with a trading volume of 38,860 and an open interest change of - 27,028; for the 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 3069, the closing price was 3076, up 7 or 0.23%, with a trading volume of 173,725 and an open interest change of 2,427; for the 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 2782, the closing price was 2774, down 8 or 0.29%, with a trading volume of 1,075,551 and an open interest change of 37,990 [6]. - **Outer Market**: The US soybean futures contract on the outer market had a slight correction, with the main contract close to 1070 cents. The recent rebound was due to reaching a support level and a year - on - year decrease in US soybean ending inventory, as well as good export sales. However, the pressure comes from the approaching South American harvest. Some institutions have raised the Brazilian soybean production forecast to over 180 million tons, higher than the USDA's estimate of 175 million tons and last year's 171.5 million tons. The outer market may test the support at 1050 cents [6]. - **Domestic Market**: Last week, domestic soybean meal rebounded due to news of customs clearance delays and oil mill shutdowns, but the high inventory is difficult to consume. The overall bull market in commodities has boosted bullish sentiment, but once the market returns to fundamentals, soybean meal may decline. The 05 contract is mainly priced by Brazilian soybean costs and is unlikely to have a continuous rebound. Short - cycle operation advice is to go short on rallies and pay attention to the outer market support [6]. 4.2 Industry News - **Brazil**: According to Emater, the nutritional growth of the 2025/26 soybean crop in Rio Grande do Sul is "satisfactory to very good". The average yield per hectare is expected to be 3,180 kg, a significant increase from last season's 2,009 kg. If the weather remains good, the state's soybean production may reach 21.44 million tons, a 57.14% increase from the previous year. As of last Thursday, 92% of the planned 6.74 million - hectare planting area had been sown, and 98% of the sown crops were in the germination/nutritional growth stage [7]. - **Argentina**: As of December 23, the planting rate of the 2025/26 soybean crop in Argentina was 77%, compared with 65% last week and 88% in the same period last year [9]. 4.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including soybean meal ex - factory price, 01 contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [15][17][14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 26, 2025, the A - share market showed a general upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an eight - day consecutive increase. The trading volume of the two markets expanded, indicating active market trading [1]. - Different futures varieties have distinct price trends and influencing factors. For example, the prices of some varieties are affected by supply and demand, international market conditions, and policy expectations [4][5]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On December 26, the three major A - share indexes rose slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.10% to close at 3963.68 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.54% to close at 13603.89 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.14% to close at 3243.88 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 235.7 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index fluctuated and consolidated on December 26, closing at 4657.24, a month - on - month increase of 14.7 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On December 26, the coke weighted index fluctuated within a range, closing at 1707.9, a month - on - month decrease of 15.6. The coking coal weighted index had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1104.8 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 11.0 [2][3]. - For coke, port spot prices were stable, supply was increasing as coking plants actively operated, but demand was weak as steel mills had low profitability and only made necessary purchases. For coking coal, prices in some regions changed, supply was tightened due to a coal mine accident, and demand was weak as steel mills had a low acceptance of high - priced coal [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the holiday, the US sugar market had light trading volume and closed slightly lower on December 26. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract continued to fluctuate and consolidate at night. As of November 30, the sugarcane crushing volume in northern and northeastern Brazil was 32.5 million tons, a 9.4% decrease compared to the same period last year [4]. Rubber - The Shanghai rubber market had a narrow - range fluctuation and closed slightly higher at night on December 26. As of December 26, the inventory and futures warrants of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange changed [5]. Palm Oil - Due to the continuous strengthening of crude oil, palm oil became a more attractive raw material for biodiesel. On December 26, palm oil futures in Malaysia and the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose, and the weekly line showed the first positive line in three weeks. The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from December 1 - 25 increased by 41.25% compared to the same period last month [5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, the sowing of soybeans in Brazil was almost completed, and the sowing progress in Argentina reached 70%, leading to a high yield expectation that limited the rebound of US soybean prices. However, China's purchase plan provided support. Domestically, on December 26, the M2605 main contract closed at 2790 yuan/ton, up 1.09%. The supply - demand relationship of soybean meal remained loose, and attention should be paid to South American weather and soybean arrivals [5]. Live Pigs - On December 26, the LH2603 main contract closed at 11645 yuan/ton, up 1.61%. The short - term supply pressure was relieved as group pig enterprises completed their annual targets and farmers were reluctant to sell. The demand was strong due to curing and New Year's Day stocking. The short - term price was expected to be strong, but the long - term supply pressure still existed [5]. Shanghai Copper - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut pushed up the copper price. The demand in traditional fields was weak, but the new energy and AI industries provided support. However, there was a risk of a high - level correction [5]. Logs - The 2603 main contract of logs opened at 778, with a low of 771, a high of 781, and closed at 776.5 on December 26, with a reduction of 139 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were stable. Attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [5][6]. Iron Ore - On December 26, the 2605 main contract of iron ore fluctuated and closed up 0.71% at 783 yuan. Global shipments and arrivals decreased, port inventories increased, and terminal demand was low in the off - season. However, steel mill profitability improved, and iron water output increased slightly. The short - term price was expected to fluctuate [7]. Asphalt - On December 26, the 2602 main contract of asphalt fluctuated and closed down 0.03% at 2995 yuan. The capacity utilization rate increased, inventories accumulated, and shipments increased. The downstream demand was stable, and the short - term price was expected to fluctuate [7]. Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14475 yuan/ton at night on December 26. Cotton spinning enterprises replenished stocks as needed, and the inventory increased by 227 lots. The prices of different types of cotton from different regions were provided [7][8][9][10]. Steel - The domestic steel market was in a narrow - range fluctuation. The core contradiction was between short - term policy - driven sentiment and long - term fundamental pressure. Steel production was affected by environmental protection and low profitability, and demand was weak. Attention should be paid to the macro - expectations for next year [10]. Alumina - The impact of seasonal factors on imported ore from Guinea weakened, and port inventories increased slightly. Supply was expected to decrease under policy guidance as the industry had high - level production and excess inventory. Demand was stable as domestic electrolytic aluminum production was steady [10]. Shanghai Aluminum - The low price of alumina ensured good smelting profits for aluminum plants, and the overall production was active. Supply increased slightly as some electrolytic aluminum projects were put into operation. Demand weakened in the off - season, and inventories accumulated slightly. Affected by positive macro - expectations, the aluminum price remained high and fluctuated [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) and corn sectors is neutral [3][6] 2. Core Views - For the粕类 market, the current domestic supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with a slight increase in soybean inventory and high bean meal inventory. The 05 contract price moves weakly in line with the US soybean price due to strong South American soybean production expectations. However, the relatively high import cost of US soybeans provides some support. Future focus should be on soybean imports and the growth of new - season South American soybeans [2] - In the corn market, farmers are still reluctant to sell, resulting in a slow grain - selling pace. Traders are cautious in purchasing, while deep - processing enterprises'开机 is stable with a slight increase in inventory and improved purchasing willingness. Feed enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases and mostly adopt a wait - and - see attitude. All - link inventories are gradually rising but still below historical levels. Future focus should be on alternative grain auctions, and the corn spot price is expected to adjust [4][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 粕类 Market 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the bean meal 2605 contract was 2760 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (+1.17%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2352 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+0.34%) [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 320, down 32 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3030 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M05 + 270, down 12; in Guangdong, it was 3040 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M05 + 280, down 12. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2590 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM05 + 238, up 12 [1] - **Market Information**: As of December 23, the soybean planting progress in Argentina for the 2025/26 season was 75.5%, 8 percentage points higher than a week ago, with 95.2% of sown soybeans rated normal to good and 96% of soybean farmland having sufficient/optimal moisture. The estimated soybean production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 1.77 billion tons, higher than the previous forecast of 1.76 billion tons [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The domestic supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with soybean and bean meal inventories rising slightly. The 05 contract price moves weakly with the US soybean price due to South American production expectations, but the high US soybean import cost provides support. Future focus should be on soybean imports and South American soybean growth [2] 3.1.3 Strategy - Neutral [3] 3.2 Corn Market 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2189 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.32%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2601 contract was 2484 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.40%) [3] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C01 + 111, up 12 from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2620 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CS01 + 136, up 10 [3] - **Market Information**: From December 1 - 19, Brazil's corn exports were 4.426 million tons, compared with 4.266 million tons in December 2024. The daily average export volume was 295,039 tons, a 45.2% year - on - year increase. The export value was 970 million US dollars, compared with 910 million US dollars in December 2024. The average export price was 218.8 US dollars/ton, a 2.2% increase from the same period last year [3] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - On the supply side, farmers are reluctant to sell, resulting in a slow grain - selling pace. On the demand side, traders' inventory rises slowly and they are cautious in purchasing. Deep - processing enterprises'开机 is stable, with a slight increase in inventory and improved purchasing willingness. Feed enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases and mostly wait and see. All - link inventories are rising but below historical levels. Future focus should be on alternative grain auctions, and the corn spot price is expected to adjust [4][5] 3.2.3 Strategy - Neutral [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Last week, the CBOT March soybean contract dropped 26.75 to close at 1059.5 cents per bushel, a decline of 2.46%; the May bean粕 contract fell 35 to close at 2735 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.26%; the South China bean粕 spot price closed at 3060 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous week; the May rapeseed粕 contract dropped 24 to close at 2323 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.02%; the Guangxi rapeseed粕 spot price fell 30 to close at 2470 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.20% [3][6]. - Favorable weather conditions in South America have strengthened the expectation of a bumper harvest. Brazil's soybean harvesting will start in January, increasing supply. The overall progress of US soybean export sales is slow, heightening concerns about exports and potentially leading to a downward adjustment of export forecasts. As a result, US soybeans have been weakening, filling the gap from the sharp jump at the end of October. In China, the enthusiasm for imported soybean auctions has cooled, and combined with the decline in import costs, bean粕 prices have fallen this week [3][6]. - South American crops are expected to have a bumper harvest. Brazil's soybean harvesting will start in January, and export supply will increase in February. China's pace of purchasing US soybeans has slowed compared to earlier, and the overall progress of US soybean export sales is slow, causing the outer - market prices to continue to decline. Last week, the imported soybean auction cooled. Attention should be paid to the subsequent auction results. There is still supply in the spot market, and downstream buyers are mainly replenishing stocks on a rolling basis. However, the supply of imported soybeans will decrease in the first quarter, and with the expectation of holiday stocking, there is support for spot prices. It is expected that the main contract of Dalian bean粕 will fluctuate weakly in the short term [3][10]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean price dropped from 1086.25 to 1059.5 cents per bushel, a decline of 2.46%; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans decreased from 490 to 474 dollars per ton, a decline of 3.27%; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans fell from 491 to 476 dollars per ton, a decline of 3.05%; the Brazilian soybean crushing margin on the futures market increased from - 110.17 to - 80.72 yuan per ton; the DCE bean粕 price dropped from 2770 to 2735 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.26%; the CZCE rapeseed粕 price fell from 2347 to 2323 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.02%; the price difference between bean粕 and rapeseed粕 decreased from 423 to 412 yuan per ton; the East China spot price of bean粕 dropped from 3080 to 3060 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.65%; the South China spot price of bean粕 remained unchanged at 3060 yuan per ton; the spot - futures price difference in South China increased from 290 to 325 yuan per ton [4]. Market Analysis and Outlook - As of the week ending November 27, the net increase in US soybean export sales for the 2025/2026 season was 110.6 million tons, down from 232.1 million tons the previous week. The cumulative sales volume of current - year US soybeans was 2183 million tons, with a sales progress of 49.1%, compared to 70.9% last year. China's net purchase of US soybeans that week was 50.9 million tons, with a cumulative purchase of 301.5 million tons and an unshipped volume of 301.5 million tons [7]. - As of the week ending December 12, 2025, the US soybean crushing gross profit was 2.33 dollars per bushel, down from 2.45 dollars per bushel the previous week. The spot price of 48% protein bean粕 at Illinois soybean processing plants was 311.2 dollars per short ton, down from 320.87 dollars per short ton the previous week. The truck - delivered price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 49.67 cents per pound, down from 50.37 cents per pound the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 10.77 dollars per bushel, down from 10.95 dollars per bushel the previous week [7]. - The NOPA monthly report showed that the US soybean crushing volume in November was 216.041 million bushels, a 5.1% decrease from October and an 11.8% increase from the same period last year. As of November 30, the soybean oil inventory of NOPA member companies was 1.513 billion pounds, a 15.9% increase from the end of October and a 39.6% increase from the same period last year [8]. - As of the week ending December 12, 2025, the planting rate of Brazilian soybeans for the 2025/26 season was 94.1%, up from 90.3% the previous week and lower than 96.8% last year. Brazil's soybean exports in December are expected to be 3.57 million tons, up from the previous week's forecast of 3.33 million tons. As of the week ending December 17, 2025, the sowing progress of Argentine soybeans was 67.3%, up from 58.6% the previous week and lower than 76.6% last year [8]. - The weather forecast for South American soybean - growing regions shows that in the next 15 days, precipitation in the southern Brazilian soybean - growing regions will increase significantly, while precipitation in the central - western regions will be slightly lower than normal. Overall, the conditions for crop growth and development are good. Precipitation in the Argentine growing regions will be higher than the average [8]. - As of the week ending December 12, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 7.3948 million tons, an increase of 239,600 tons from the previous week and 1.3807 million tons from the same period last year; the bean粕 inventory was 1.0969 million tons, a decrease of 65,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 456,700 tons from the same period last year; the unfulfilled contracts were 5.7202 million tons, a decrease of 600,300 tons from the previous week and an increase of 1.2002 million tons from the same period last year. The soybean inventory at national ports was 9.162 million tons, a decrease of 208,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 1.3615 million tons from the same period last year [9]. - As of the week ending December 12, 2025, the average daily trading volume of bean粕 nationwide was 121,260 tons, including 50,940 tons of spot trading and 70,320 tons of forward trading, down from 182,400 tons the previous week. The average daily pick - up volume of bean粕 was 181,500 tons, down from 194,500 tons the previous week. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.1306 million tons, up from 2.0375 million tons the previous week. The inventory days of bean粕 in feed enterprises were 9.23 days, up from 9.13 days the previous week [9]. Industry News - The AgRural agency reported that as of last Thursday, the sown area of Brazilian soybeans for the 2025/26 season had reached 97% of the expected area, a 3 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. Most regions had good rainfall last week, and the weather forecast indicates more rainfall and favorable temperatures in the coming days [11]. - The Secex agency reported that Brazil exported 1.65022058 million tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of December, with an average daily export volume of 165,022.06 tons, a 73% increase from the average daily export volume in December last year. The total export volume in December last year was 2.0060892 million tons [11]. - Data from the Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (Abiove) showed that in October 2025, Brazilian factories processed 4.39 million tons of soybeans, producing 3.36 million tons of bean粕 and 900,000 tons of soybean oil. The ending inventory of soybeans at oil mills was 11.265 million tons, the ending inventory of bean粕 was 2.51 million tons, and the ending inventory of soybean oil was 490,000 tons [11]. - According to the European Commission, as of December 14, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/26 season were 1.4 million tons, down from 1.5 million tons last year; soybean imports were 5.6 million tons, down from 6.5 million tons last year; bean粕 imports were 8.3 million tons, down from 9.2 million tons last year; and rapeseed imports were 1.7 million tons, down from 2.8 million tons last year [12]. - A commodity research estimated that the 2025/26 Argentine soybean production would remain at 46.9 million tons, with an estimated range of 45.8 - 48.1 million tons. However, the delayed sowing, decreasing soil moisture in the Pampas region, and long - term weather prospects require attention. The estimated planted area is 16.7 million hectares, slightly higher than the Rosario Exchange's report of 16.4 million hectares but lower than the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange's report of 17.6 million hectares [12]. - The Deral agency estimated that the 2025/26 soybean production in Paraná state would be 21.96 million tons, the same as the November estimate. If the estimate is correct, the state's soybean output will increase by 4% compared to the previous year. The agricultural department of Rio Grande do Sul state reported that the sowing rate of soybeans in the 2025/26 season reached 89%, a 13 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The rainfall ensured soil moisture and was beneficial to the sown crops. The sowing rate exceeded the historical average of 88% but was lower than 91% in the same period last year [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to trade in the range of 2900 - 2960, with the market influenced by factors such as Sino - US tariff negotiations, US soybean planting weather, and South American soybean production. The short - term outlook is neutral, with both upward and downward pressures [9]. - The soybean A2507 is expected to trade in the range of 4120 - 4220. The market is affected by factors like Sino - US tariff negotiations, South American soybean harvest, and domestic soybean supply and demand. The short - term outlook is also neutral [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations reached a short - term agreement, which is positive for US soybeans. However, good planting weather in the US soybean - growing areas has led to a short - term pull - back in US soybean prices. The market is waiting for further guidance on Sino - US tariff negotiations and US soybean planting weather [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May. After May Day, domestic soybean inventories rebounded from a low level, while soybean meal inventories remained low. The short - term outlook for soybeans and soybean meal is oscillatory, with a pattern of strong current situation and weak expectations [13]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but tight supply supports the post - holiday price. Due to the reduced pressure of the Sino - US tariff war, soybean meal is in a short - term oscillatory and weakening pattern [13]. - Low soybean meal inventories at domestic oil mills and strong spot prices support short - term price expectations. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - growing areas and uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff war have led to short - term oscillations in soybean meal, waiting for clear information on South American soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low soybean meal inventories at domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in the US soybean - growing area weather [14]. - Bearish factors: High total arrival of imported soybeans in May, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [14]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - Bearish factors: Continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans by China, and expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2890, with a basis of - 62, indicating a discount to the futures price. The inventory of soybean meal at oil mills is 12.17 million tons, a 20.26% increase from last week and an 80.47% decrease from the same period last year [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4180, with a basis of 8, indicating a premium to the futures price. The inventory of soybeans at oil mills is 586.83 million tons, a 9.71% increase from last week and a 33.95% increase from the same period last year [11]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The long positions of the main players increased, but the funds flowed out [9]. - **Soybeans**: The short positions of the main players increased, and the funds flowed out [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2880 - 2940. The domestic soybean meal may show a short - term pattern of weakening oscillation due to factors such as the uncertainty of the China - US tariff war, the weather in US soybean - producing areas, and the increase in the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans [9]. - The soybean A2507 is expected to oscillate within the range of 4160 - 4260. The domestic soybean is affected by the subsequent China - US tariff negotiation and the expected increase in the arrival of imported soybeans, and may show a short - term oscillation pattern [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The China - US tariff negotiation reached a short - term agreement, which is beneficial to US soybeans. However, the good weather for US soybean planting recently led to a short - term decline after the US soybean market rose. It is expected to oscillate above the thousand - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean planting, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the subsequent China - US tariff war [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory increased from a low level, but the soybean meal inventory remained low. The soybeans are affected by the implementation of the China - US tariff war and have returned to an oscillation pattern, showing a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits led to a low expectation of pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal decreased after May Day, but the tight supply supported the post - holiday price expectation. With the weakening pressure of the China - US tariff war, the soybean meal entered a short - term pattern of weakening oscillation [13]. - The low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal supported the short - term price expectation. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in US soybean - producing areas and the uncertainty of the China - US tariff war. The soybean meal will maintain an oscillation pattern in the short term, waiting for the clarification of South American soybean production and further guidance on the subsequent China - US tariff war [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish for Soybean Meal - Slow clearance of imported soybeans at customs [14]. - Low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal [14]. - Uncertainty in the weather of US soybean - producing areas [14]. Bearish for Soybean Meal - The total arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May [14]. - The harvest of Brazilian soybeans is over, and the expectation of a bumper harvest in South American soybeans continues [14]. Bullish for Soybeans - The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market [15]. - The expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports the domestic soybean price expectation [15]. Bearish for Soybeans - The expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazilian soybeans continues, and China has increased its procurement of Brazilian soybeans [15]. - The expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of soybeans [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2860, with a basis of - 74, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of oil - mill soybean meal is 12.17 tons, a 20.26% increase from last week and an 80.47% decrease compared to the same period last year [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of - 25, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of oil - mill soybeans is 586.83 tons, a 9.71% increase from last week and a 33.95% increase compared to the same period last year [11]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The number of long positions of the main contract increased, but the funds flowed out [9]. - **Soybeans**: The number of short positions of the main contract increased, and the funds flowed in [11].