按照日程安排，OPEC+主要成员国在10月5日举行线上会议，商议11月的产量安排。OPEC+的石油产量约占全球总量的一半，其成员包括OPEC+成员国， 以及俄罗斯等非OPEC+产油盟国。 对于此次会议，多家外媒透露，预计该组织将确认11月原油日产量至少再增加13.7万桶。其实，自今年4月起，OPEC+已放弃减产策略。8个参与减产的 OPEC+成员国在9月底前，完全取消此前减产计划中的一项——220万桶/日的自愿减产。从10月开始，这些国家已开始着手取消第二项减产（165万桶/ 日），当月将实现13.7万桶/日的增产。 但是如此快速的连续增产计划，让市场对原油供应进一步增加的预期扩大，加剧了人们对供应过剩局面的担忧。据彭博社调查数据，OPEC+在9月原油日 产量增加40万桶；而路透社调查显示，OPEC+五个成员国9月实际增产34.7万桶/日，低于协议配额增幅。 当下供给不断增加的市场环境下，已促使多家全球金融机构调整其油价预期。国际能源署（IEA）预测，若当前产量趋势持续，2026年原油供应过剩量可 能达到历史最高水平。麦格理集团（Macquarie）最新报告认为，当前形势意味着在今年年底至明年第一季度期间，原 ...

Group 1 - Oil prices are expected to see the largest weekly decline since late June, with Brent crude trading around $64 per barrel, down approximately 8% this week, and West Texas Intermediate below $61 per barrel [1] - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting is anticipated to address concerns over oversupply, with expectations of returning idle capacity [1] - Preliminary signs of global supply surplus have emerged in the Middle East, with the International Energy Agency forecasting record levels of oversupply next year, partly due to the return of OPEC+ production [4] Group 2 - In September, OPEC increased its daily production by 400,000 barrels, officially ending the production cuts implemented in 2023 [4] - Concerns about a potential long-term government shutdown in the U.S. may negatively impact the economy and suppress fuel demand [4] - Despite the oversupply concerns, worries about potential disruptions to Russian supply due to U.S. intelligence support to Ukraine have limited further declines in oil prices [4]

Oil Market - International oil prices have experienced a significant decline, with WTI crude oil futures dropping by $1.30 to $60.48 per barrel, a decrease of 2.1%, and Brent crude oil futures falling by $1.03 to $64.32 per barrel, down 1.58% [1][3] - Brent and WTI crude oil have seen four consecutive days of decline, reaching their lowest levels in nearly four months due to concerns over potential oversupply ahead of an upcoming OPEC meeting [3] - HFI Research indicates that U.S. oil inventories are expected to increase by year-end, contributing to a persistently weak oil market environment [4] Gold Market - Gold prices initially reached a record high of $3,897 per ounce before experiencing a sharp decline, dropping below $3,820 per ounce [5] - Year-to-date, spot gold prices have risen by $1,200 per ounce, representing an increase of over 45%, driven primarily by risks associated with the U.S. economy [9] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has heightened market risk aversion, leading to increased expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has supported gold prices [10] - Institutions such as JPMorgan and UBS have raised their gold price forecasts, with expectations that gold could reach $3,800 per ounce by Q4 2025 and potentially exceed $4,000 per ounce in Q1 2026 [11] - Analysts predict that gold prices will likely fluctuate between $3,700 and $4,100 per ounce in Q4 2023, with a possibility of breaking above $4,200 per ounce if no significant negative factors arise [12]

全球原油基准布伦特原油价格今年已累计下跌约11%，其中9月更是连续第二个月下跌。这背后是欧佩 克+为夺回市场份额，大幅放宽了供应限制。 该联盟定于本周末召开会议，敲定11月的产量水平。周二，一名代表透露，成员国将讨论"加速增产"方 案，计划分三个月、每月增产约50万桶/日；不过欧佩克方面随后则表示，目前并无此类计划。 分析师们表示："沙特目前没有表现出放缓增产的迹象，如果这种趋势不逆转，我们预计市场将陷入'长 期低迷'的状态。最终，我们认为要让市场恢复平衡，需要多种因素共同作用：油价下跌（减缓非欧佩 克产油国供应）、供应中断、欧佩克政策调整，以及时间（让需求增长逐步消化过剩供应）。" 在具体预期方面，分析师称，美国基准的WTI原油明年均价预计为每桶57美元，低于此前预测的每桶 60美元。目前约为每桶66美元的布伦特原油，明年一季度均价预计降至每桶57美元，二季度预计为每桶 59美元。 报告中的图表还显示，麦格理预测明年一季度全球原油供应过剩量将达每日463万桶，此后三个季度的 过剩量将逐步减少，但仍维持过剩状态。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 麦格理集团（Macquarie Gro ...

Group 1 - The stock prices of China's "three oil giants" collectively declined on September 30, with China Petroleum (00857.HK) down 2.75%, China National Offshore Oil (00883.HK) down 1.24%, and China Petroleum & Chemical (00386.HK) down 1.22% [2][3] - In the A-share market, oil and gas stocks also faced pressure, with China Petroleum (601857.SH) down 1.35%, China National Offshore Oil (600938.SH) down 1.02%, and China Petroleum & Chemical (600028.SH) also declining [3] - Reports on September 29 indicated that OPEC+ is likely to approve a new round of oil production increases in their online meeting on October 5, with an increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day, aiming to regain market share [3][4] Group 2 - Following the news, concerns about oversupply in the oil market resurfaced, leading to a significant drop in international oil prices, with WTI crude futures falling 3.86% to $63.18 per barrel on September 29, and continuing to decline to $62.72 per barrel [4] - OPEC+ currently accounts for about half of global oil production, including member countries from OPEC and Russia along with other allies [4] - If the production increase plan is implemented in November, it could further expand global oil supply, exacerbating the risk of oversupply and putting pressure on oil prices [5] Group 3 - Geopolitical factors, including a new plan announced by the U.S. and Israel to end the Gaza conflict, have significantly reduced geopolitical risks, contributing to further declines in oil prices [6] - Analysts suggest that potential oversupply and changes in geopolitical risk premiums may dominate trading in the short term, with market focus on OPEC+'s next actions and the fragile diplomatic process regarding Gaza [6] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown issue and upcoming non-farm payroll data release could also impact market risks and oil demand expectations [6]

Group 1 - WTI crude oil futures fell by 4% during trading, marking the largest decline since June, closing at $63.45 per barrel, a drop of 3.45% [1] - Brent crude oil futures also decreased, closing at $67.97 per barrel, down by 3.08% [1] Group 2 - OPEC+ is considering increasing production beyond the planned increase of 137,000 barrels per day next month, despite existing market surplus expectations [4] - RBC Capital Markets analysts predict that OPEC+ is likely to decide on the 137,000 barrels per day increase in their October 5 meeting, but actual increases may be lower due to many member countries reaching production limits [4] - Geopolitical tensions are currently supporting oil prices, but recent developments have reduced these risks, particularly regarding the Israel-Gaza conflict [4] - The restoration of oil exports from northern Iraq to Turkey has resumed after a two-year halt, which may impact supply dynamics [4] Group 3 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a record oversupply of crude oil by 2026 as OPEC+ continues to restore production alongside non-OPEC competitors [5] - Goldman Sachs indicates that despite China's oil stockpiling, Brent crude may drop to the mid-$50 range next year [5]

Group 1 - Oil prices experienced a significant drop due to indications that OPEC+ may decide to increase production again in November during the October meeting, erasing gains from the previous week [1] - WTI crude oil futures fell by 4% during trading, marking the largest decline since June, closing at $63.45 per barrel, a decrease of 3.45%, while Brent crude oil futures closed at $67.97 per barrel, down 3.08% [1] - OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia, is considering increasing production by at least 137,000 barrels per day above the planned increase for next month, raising concerns about whether member countries have reached their production capacity limits [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical risks have decreased, with the U.S. and Israel discussing a plan to end the Gaza conflict, which could potentially reduce the "war premium" in oil prices if the conflict in the Middle East, a major oil supply region, comes to an end [2] - The IEA predicts a record oversupply of crude oil by 2026 as OPEC+ continues to restore production, while competitors outside the organization are also increasing output [2] - Despite China's oil stockpiling, Goldman Sachs forecasts that Brent crude oil prices may drop to the mid-$50 range next year [2]

原油三季度报 --基本面与地缘政治博弈 油价有望延续宽幅震荡 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2025-09-26 宏观P分AR析T 02 美联储降息25个基点 年内仍有降息空间 04 后市研判 目录 01 行情回顾 03 供需分析 02 宏观分析 行情P回AR顾T 01 基本面与地缘政治博弈 油价窄幅震荡 Ø 三季度在基本面与地缘政治博弈的背景下，原油整体呈现震荡偏弱的走势，一方面以伊冲突结束后，地缘风险溢价快速回落， 油价步入短暂的震荡，随后美俄关系的反复切换对市场造成阶段性扰动，但持续性不强，另外一方面"强现实、弱预期"的格 局对油价提供一定支撑，但难以形成持续上涨的驱动，随着需求旺季步入尾声，供应过剩的预期逐步强化，对油价形成压制。 后续关注需求端的边际变化及地缘政治的演变。 Ø 美联储降息25BP：北京时间9月18日凌晨2点，美联储宣布，联邦基金利率的目标区间从4.25%—4.50%降至4.00%—4.25%，降 幅25个基点。这是美联储2025年以来首次降息。 Ø 年内仍有降息空间：本次议息会议上，美联储还更新了利率点阵图。目前预计今年年内还将再降息 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Recommend shorting on rallies [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand balance of crude oil has weakened, with supply increasing and demand facing uncertainties, so it is advisable to short on rallies [4] 3. Summary by Related Content Supply - side Factors - Iraq's Oil Ministry will restart the export of crude oil from the Kurdish region on Tuesday, which is expected to increase Iraq's crude oil exports by 300,000 - 400,000 barrels per day [1][2] - OPEC+ is accelerating production increases. From October 2025, OPEC+ will implement a daily production adjustment of 137,000 barrels, and plans to continue to lift the voluntary production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day after lifting the first - layer additional voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day. In August, OPEC+ crude oil production was 42.4 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 509,000 barrels per day. Kpler expects OPEC+ maritime exports to increase by more than 1.1 million barrels per day in September [2] - Kuwait will increase its crude oil production to 2.559 million barrels per day from October, with a production capacity of 3.2 million barrels per day [2] - The United States' crude oil production is basically stable, and new production capacities in countries such as Brazil, Guyana, and Norway have been put into operation, leading to a continuous increase in crude oil supply [2] Demand - side Factors - The peak season for crude oil travel is basically over. The EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have decreased by 9.285 million barrels unexpectedly, but refined oil inventories have increased unexpectedly, and overall oil product inventories continue to rise. The U.S. refinery's operating rate has dropped by 1.6 percentage points [3] - The weak U.S. non - farm payrolls data has raised concerns about crude oil demand [4] Other Factors - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its September meeting, but Powell is still cautious about further rate cuts, and the macro - situation is temporarily stable [4] - The EU has passed a new round of sanctions against Russia, including sanctions on shadow tankers and setting a crude oil price cap at $47.6 per barrel. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement negotiation and Russia's crude oil export situation [4] - Chinese independent refineries have reduced ESPO purchases due to uncertain quotas [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, crude oil prices first rose and then fell. NYMEX WTI crude futures closed at $62.36 per barrel, up 0.40% for the week; ICE Brent crude futures closed at $66.05 per barrel, down 0.60% for the week; Shanghai crude oil futures closed at 483.6 yuan per barrel, up 1.75% for the week [5]. - The Fed announced a 25 - basis - point rate cut, which supported oil prices. However, Russia's plan to protect the national budget and OPEC +'s production - increase plan increased concerns about supply glut, causing oil prices to fall in the second half of the week [5]. - Citi analysts believe that Brent crude prices will gradually fall to around $60 per barrel from the end of this year to 2026. OPEC +'s decision to gradually cancel the "second - round production cuts" will increase global crude oil inventories [6]. - The US and the EU are increasing sanctions on Russia's energy exports, but India's refineries are not willing to stop buying Russian crude due to rising domestic fuel demand [6]. - Sino - US trade negotiations have made some progress, and the EU's new sanctions on Russia will have a short - term emotional impact on the market. It is expected that crude oil will continue to fluctuate, and supply pressure will drag down oil prices in the absence of geopolitical stimuli [7]. - In terms of operation, trade within the range of 470 - 505 in the short term, and long - term long positions should be liquidated on rallies [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review - Oil price trends: NYMEX WTI crude futures rose 0.40% for the week, ICE Brent crude futures fell 0.60% for the week, and Shanghai crude oil futures rose 1.75% for the week [5]. - Supply - side factors: Attacks on Russian oil ports by Ukraine may lead to a reduction of about 300,000 barrels per day in Russian refining capacity. The US plans new energy sanctions on Russia, and OPEC + is continuing its production - increase plan [5]. - Macro - factors: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but there are differences within the FOMC on the rate - cut amplitude. The Fed's dot - plot median shows that it is expected to cut rates twice more this year [5]. - Market sentiment: The net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil futures increased, and geopolitical tensions partly boosted the market [5]. 3.2 Related News - Citi's forecast: Brent crude prices will gradually fall to around $60 per barrel from the end of this year to 2026, and global crude oil inventories are expected to increase [6]. - Sanctions on Russia: The US Senate is seeking to increase financial pressure on Russia's energy exports, and the EU is discussing a new round of sanctions targeting Russia's oil and gas production [6]. - India's oil imports: Indian refineries are not willing to stop buying Russian crude due to rising domestic fuel demand after the monsoon season, but the volume of imports may be lower than previous peaks [6]. 3.3 Outlook - Market trends: Crude oil is expected to continue to fluctuate, and supply pressure will drag down oil prices in the absence of geopolitical stimuli [7]. - Operational suggestions: Trade within the range of 470 - 505 in the short term, and long - term long positions should be liquidated on rallies [8]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Spot prices: The prices of various crude oil varieties such as Brent Dtd, WTI, etc. all increased, with the increase ranging from 0.39 to 0.94 dollars, and the increase rate ranging from 0.56% to 1.43% [11]. - Inventory data: The Cushing inventory and EIA inventory have fluctuated in the past few months, with the Cushing inventory at 2356.1 million barrels as of September 12, a decrease of 29.6 million barrels from the previous period, and the EIA inventory at 41536.1 million barrels, a decrease of 928.5 million barrels from the previous period [13][14]. 3.5持仓数据 - CFTC data: As of the week of September 16, speculators' net long positions in WTI crude oil increased by 16,865 contracts to 98,709 contracts [5][20]. - ICE data: As of the week of September 16, the speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures increased by 22,593 contracts to 232,171 contracts [5][21].