Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The crude oil market is in a supply - surplus situation. The decision of OPEC+ to increase production in December will intensify the supply pressure in the fourth quarter, while the supply pressure in the first quarter of next year will be unexpectedly relieved. With the end of the consumption peak season and concerns about demand, along with OPEC+ accelerating production and increased exports from the Middle East, the supply - surplus pattern has become more of a consensus. It is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate weakly [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Market Analysis - On November 2, OPEC+ eight countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the October and November plans, and suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. Their next meeting is on November 30. This will intensify the supply pressure in the fourth quarter but relieve it in Q1 2026 [1]. - The end of the crude oil demand peak season, EIA data shows an unexpected increase in refined oil inventories, but due to increased net exports, the decline in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, and the overall oil product inventory decreased slightly [1][4]. - US crude oil production is near the historical high. India may reduce imports of Russian oil due to a potential new tariff agreement with the US. US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control said that nearly a dozen major Indian buyers plan to suspend purchasing Russian oil for December delivery [1]. - Ukraine's attack on Russian refineries led to the suspension of crude oil processing at the Ryazan refinery in Russia, and European gasoline and diesel prices continued to rise. Tensions between the US and Venezuela, and armed conflicts in Libya have raised concerns about supply disruptions [1]. - Negative factors such as the end of the consumption peak season, the decline in the US October ISM manufacturing index, OPEC+ accelerating production, and increased exports from the Middle East have led to an oversupply situation in the crude oil market [1]. - OPEC has adjusted the global oil market from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the IEA expects that the growth of oil demand in the fourth quarter will slow down while supply will further increase [1]. - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that the latest sanctions from the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production. There are also rumors of the Trump administration secretly coordinating a new framework to end the Ukraine conflict, leading to a decline in the risk premium of Russian crude oil [1]. b) Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2601 fell 1.66% to 455.5 yuan per ton, with a minimum price of 451.8 yuan per ton and a maximum of 458.4 yuan per ton. The open interest decreased by 1,984 to 39,074 lots [2]. c) Fundamental Tracking - EIA月报预计2025年全球液态燃料产量将增加270万桶/日，2026年再增加130万桶/日。EIA also raised the forecast of US crude oil production in 2026 by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.5 million barrels per day [3]. - OPEC月报 adjusted the global oil shortage in the third quarter of 2025 from 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and adjusted the global oil shortage in 2026 from 50,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 20,000 barrels per day. It maintained the forecast of global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 at 1.3 million barrels per day and in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day [3]. - IEA's annual "World Energy Outlook" predicts that oil demand may continue to grow until 2050, while previously it was expected to peak in 2030. The IEA monthly report raised the global crude oil supply growth rate forecast for 2025 by 100,000 barrels per day to 3.1 million barrels per day, and for 2026 by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day; it also raised the global crude oil demand growth rate forecast for 2025 by 78,000 barrels per day to 788,000 barrels per day, and for 2026 by 71,000 barrels per day to 770,000 barrels per day [3]. d) Inventory and Production Data - As of the week ending November 14, US crude oil inventories decreased by 3.426 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 603,000 barrels and 5.11% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories increased by 2.327 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 227,000 barrels; refined oil inventories increased by 171,000 barrels, against the expected decrease of 1.215 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 698,000 barrels [4]. - OPEC's September crude oil production was revised down by 13,000 barrels per day to 28.427 million barrels per day, and its October production increased by 33,000 barrels per day to 28.46 million barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. OPEC+ October crude oil production decreased by 73,000 barrels per day compared to September to 43.02 million barrels per day [4]. - US crude oil production in the week ending November 14 decreased by 28,000 barrels per day to 13.834 million barrels per day, still near the historical high [4]. e) Demand Data - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.641 million barrels per day, a 1.23% increase compared to the same period last year, changing from lower to higher than the same period last year [4]. - US gasoline weekly demand decreased by 5.54% to 8.528 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 8.839 million barrels per day, a 1.21% decrease compared to the same period last year. Diesel weekly demand decreased by 3.38% to 3.882 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.798 million barrels per day, a 0.20% increase compared to the same period last year. The decline in gasoline and diesel demand led to a 2.95% decrease in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4][6].

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-20原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 行情驱动：短期利空冲击殆尽，地缘利多不明显，中长期面临供大于求风险 风险点：OPEC+内部团结破坏，放开增产；战争风险升级 1. 对俄制裁临近 2. OPEC+将在明年一季度暂停增产 1.中东局缓和 2.机构对原油过剩预期较为一致 3.美俄重新有会面谈判可能 原油2601： 1.基本面：俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克告诉记者，俄罗斯将在2025年底或2026年初达到其OPEC+石油产量配 额。他指出，俄罗斯已完全完成此前在OPEC+协议下的超产补偿任务，且没有计划自愿减产；乌克兰 总统泽连斯基抵达土耳其以"重启谈判"，报道称美国与俄 ...

投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油震荡上行 发布日期：2025年11月19日 【行情分析】 11月2日，欧佩克+八国决定12月增产13.7万桶/日，与此前10月、11月增产计划一致，明年第一 季度暂停增产，欧佩克+八国下一次会议将于11月30日举行。这将加剧四季度的原油供应压力，但对 于明年一季度的供应压力意外减轻。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示美国原油累库幅度超预期，成 品油库存去库幅度不及预期，整体油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量继续刷新历史最高位。美国对 俄罗斯态度转变，美国财政部制裁俄罗斯最大的两家石油企业俄罗斯石油公司、卢克石油公司及其 子公司，俄罗斯原油出口预期受限。印度有与美国达成新的关税协议而同意逐步减少对俄罗斯石油 进口的倾向。美国财政部外国资产控制办公室称，近十几个主要的印度买家表示打算暂停购买俄罗 斯12月份交付的石油。乌克兰对俄罗斯炼厂袭击，俄罗斯梁赞炼油厂暂停原油加工，欧洲汽柴油持 续上涨，关注俄罗斯原油的出口情况。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙升级，福特号打击群到达加勒比海。 利比亚首都的黎波里附 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: November 19, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The 1Q 2026 production increase suspension has some support for the supply side but the effect is insufficient. Non - OPEC supply continues to rise, leading to obvious supply surplus in Q4 and Q1 2026 with an accelerating inventory build - up. Short - term sanctions on Russia and the situation in Venezuela may push up oil prices, but the supply surplus expectation is clear. The operation should follow a short - selling strategy, such as shorting on rebounds or reverse spreads [6][7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestion Market Review | Oil Type | Opening Price ($/barrel) | Closing Price ($/barrel) | Highest Price ($/barrel) | Lowest Price ($/barrel) | Daily Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI (Main Contract) | 59.67 | 59.66 | 60.30 | 59.21 | - 0.48 | 18.14 | | Brent (Main Contract) | 64.03 | 64.03 | 64.72 | 63.67 | - 0.56 | 25.88 | | SC (Main Contract, Yuan/barrel) | 462.8 | 458.8 | 466.0 | 457.8 | - 0.43 | 7.76 | [6] Operation Suggestion - Adopt a short - selling strategy, such as shorting on rebounds or reverse spreads [7] Group 5: Industry News - Goldman Sachs lowers the average prices of WTI and Brent crude oil in the next year to $52/barrel and $56/barrel respectively. - UBS expects the target price of Brent crude oil to be $62 by the end of this year and $67 by the end of next year. - Sudan's energy facilities are attacked, and oil exports are interrupted. - Sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil by the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) may have a long - term negative impact on Russia's oil sales volume, reducing Russia's oil revenue and pushing Russian crude oil prices to multi - year lows [8] Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including global high - frequency crude oil inventory (thousand barrels), EIA crude oil inventory (thousand barrels), US crude oil production growth rate (thousand barrels per day), Dtd Brent price ($/barrel), WTI spot price ($/barrel), Oman spot price ($/barrel), US gasoline consumption (thousand barrels per day), and US diesel consumption (thousand barrels per day) [10][11][18][22]

注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不 预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参 考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险 等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 油价中枢存在底部支撑，石油ETF（561360）涨超1.5%。 华泰证券表示，全球新能源替代稳步推进，叠加2025Q4起OPEC+实际供应增量或将集中释放，以 及南美等低成本增量供给投放，全球原油供应过剩压力或将凸显，维持2025-2026年布伦特原油均价预 测为68美元/桶、62美元/桶，预测2025Q4-2026Q2布伦特均价为63美元/桶、61美元/桶、60美元/桶。中 长期而言，产油国"利重于量"诉求未改 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 【行情分析】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落0.7个百分点至29.0%，较去年同期低了2.0个百分点，处于近 年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，11月份国内沥青预计排产222.8万吨，环比减少45.4万吨，减幅 为16.9%，同比减少27.4万吨，减幅为11.0%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数稳定，其中道路沥青 开工环比下降1个百分点至33%，略超去年同期水平，受到资金和天气制约。上周，华北地区供应减 少，其出货量减少较多，全国出货量环比减少31.02%至21.3万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存 存货比环比转而小幅上升，但仍处于近年来同期的最低位。山东胜星等炼厂计划转产渣油，沥青开 工率将维持低位。北方气温持续下降，道路施工逐渐收尾，后续需求将进一步转弱，南方项目增量 有限。欧佩克将2025年三季度全球石油从短缺40万桶/日调整为过剩50万桶/日，原油供应过剩格局进 一步成为共识，原油价格下跌。炼厂远期低价资源集中释放，近期山东地区沥青基差走弱，目前在 中性水平，现货价格疲软，市场谨慎，沥青期价偏弱震荡。 【期现行情】 期货方面： 今日沥青期货2601合约下跌0.36%至3032元/ ...

发布日期：2025年11月18日 【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油高开后震荡下行 【行情分析】 11月2日，欧佩克+八国决定12月增产13.7万桶/日，与此前10月、11月增产计划一致，明年第一 季度暂停增产，欧佩克+八国下一次会议将于11月30日举行。这将加剧四季度的原油供应压力，但对 于明年一季度的供应压力意外减轻。沙特阿美全面下调12月销往亚洲的原油官方售价，其中旗舰产 品阿拉伯轻质原油价格被下调每桶1.20美元。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示美国原油累库幅度超 预期，成品油库存去库幅度不及预期，整体油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量继续刷新历史最高位。 美国对俄罗斯态度转变，美国财政部制裁俄罗斯最大的两家石油企业俄罗斯石油公司、卢克石油公 司及其子公司，俄罗斯原油出口预期受限，只是特朗普最新表示，希望继续在布达佩斯与普京会晤。 印度有与美国达成新的关税协议而同意逐步减少对俄罗斯石油进口的可能。乌克兰对俄罗斯炼厂袭 击，欧洲汽柴油持续上涨，关注俄罗斯原油的出口情况。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙升级，福特号打 击群到达加勒比海。利比亚首都的黎波里附近爆发武装冲突。地缘局势引发委内瑞拉、利比亚供应 中断担忧。但 ...

Report Overview - The report is a daily analysis of core futures varieties, released on November 18, 2025, covering the performance, market overview, and analysis of various domestic futures contracts [3]. Market Performance Futures Market Overview - As of the close on November 18, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Red dates and iron ore rose over 1%, while lithium carbonate and BR rubber rose nearly 1%. In terms of declines, coking coal fell nearly 4%, and the container shipping index (European line), coke, Shanghai silver, and double-coated paper fell over 2%. Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 (IF) main contract fell 0.41%, the SSE 50 (IH) main contract fell 0.23%, the CSI 500 (IC) main contract fell 0.85%, and the CSI 1000 (IM) main contract fell 0.69%. Among treasury bond futures, the 2-year (TS) main contract rose 0.01%, the 5-year (TF) main contract rose 0.03%, the 10-year (T) main contract rose 0.03%, and the 30-year (TL) main contract rose 0.06% [6][7]. Capital Flows - As of 15:24 on November 18, in terms of capital inflows to domestic futures main contracts, the CSI 500 2512 had an inflow of 1.722 billion yuan, the CSI 300 2512 had an inflow of 1.254 billion yuan, and the CSI 1000 2512 had an inflow of 890 million yuan. In terms of outflows, the Shanghai gold 2512 had an outflow of 3.546 billion yuan, the lithium carbonate 2601 had an outflow of 2.323 billion yuan, and the Shanghai copper 2512 had an outflow of 1.474 billion yuan [7]. Market Analysis Copper - Copper opened high and closed low, with weak intraday fluctuations. In November, 5 smelters are expected to undergo maintenance, affecting 48,000 tons of production. However, as some smelters resume production in October and copper prices rise, production is expected to increase. Scrap copper supply increases to make up for the shortage of copper ore resources. On the demand side, rising copper prices limit downstream consumption, and except for the power and new energy battery sectors, downstream demand is weak. The probability of a December interest rate cut has dropped significantly, causing market confidence to decline and putting pressure on the market. Copper production is expected to increase, while demand is transitioning from peak to off - peak season. Before the probability of a rate cut changes, copper prices will be weakly adjusted [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened high and closed low, showing intraday strength. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 87,400 yuan/ton, up 1,250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 85,050 yuan/ton, also up 1,250 yuan/ton. Ningde Times' Jiaxiaowo is expected to resume production after December. In October 2025, lithium carbonate production was 89,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,790 tons. As of November 14, the weekly operating rate was 75.34%, 16.34% higher than the same period last year. The domestic production of energy - storage batteries in October was 54.3 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.04%. The expected production of lithium iron phosphate in November is 405,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. The market is optimistic about energy - storage demand. Lithium carbonate inventory has been decreasing for weeks, and the number of warehouse receipts has dropped significantly. The market sentiment has been boosted, but the potential resumption of Jiaxiaowo's production is a negative factor. The strong demand drives the price to oscillate strongly, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream demand [11]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as in October and November, and will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year. Saudi Aramco has lowered the official selling price of crude oil to Asia in December. The peak demand season has ended, and US crude oil inventories have increased more than expected. US crude oil production has reached a new high. The US has imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, and India may reduce its imports of Russian oil. Geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Libya may disrupt supply. However, the market is worried about demand, and the supply - surplus situation in the crude oil market has become more obvious. The price of crude oil is expected to oscillate weakly [12][13]. Asphalt - The asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 29.0% last week, lower than the same period last year. The expected production in November is 2.228 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.0%. The downstream operating rate is mostly stable, but road construction is restricted by funds and weather. National shipments decreased by 31.02% to 213,000 tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries has slightly increased but remains at a low level. Some refineries plan to switch to producing residual oil, and demand will weaken further. With the oversupply of crude oil, the asphalt futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [14]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.14 percentage points to 53.28%, still at a relatively low level. The operating rate of the plastic - weaving industry, the main downstream of PP, decreased by 0.12 percentage points to 44.24%. On November 18, new maintenance devices were added, and the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to about 82%. The production ratio of standard - grade drawn yarn remained at about 24%. Petrochemical inventories are at a neutral level. Although the crude oil price rebounded after a decline, the increase is limited due to the oversupply of crude oil. New production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream orders have limited follow - up. PP is expected to oscillate weakly [16]. Plastic - On November 18, some maintenance devices of plastics restarted, and the operating rate rose to about 88%. As of the week of November 14, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49%. The agricultural film industry is in the peak season, but the overall downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level. Petrochemical inventories are at a neutral level. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the operating rate has slightly increased. The peak season of the agricultural film industry is not as good as expected, and downstream procurement willingness is weak. The plastic price is expected to oscillate weakly [17][18]. PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region increased by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 78.51%, still at a relatively high level. The downstream operating rate has slightly declined. India has terminated the BIS policy on PVC, but the upcoming anti - dumping tax has made traders cautious. Social inventories have slightly decreased but remain high. The real estate market is still in adjustment, and the PVC industry lacks actual policies. The PVC price is expected to oscillate weakly [19]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened flat and closed low. The spot price in the Shanxi market increased, and the import volume in October decreased year - on - year. Although the Mongolian border will be closed for one day on November 21, the customs clearance volume remains high, and domestic coal production is increasing. Mines and coke enterprises are reducing inventories, while steel mills are increasing inventories. Coke enterprises are facing losses, and their production enthusiasm has decreased. Although steel mill production has increased, the short - term demand for coking coal is pessimistic. Coking coal is expected to be weakly adjusted in the short term, but the downside is limited due to upcoming environmental inspections [20][21]. Urea - Urea opened low and closed high, with a strong oscillation. The futures rebound has boosted market sentiment, and downstream agricultural dealers are increasing low - price fertilizer reserves. The supply is still abundant, and production is expected to increase. Coal prices are rising, but the increase is narrowing. Downstream dealers are more active in purchasing, and although the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has decreased due to environmental inspections, it is expected to improve after the inspections end. The cost is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. The international urea market has changed, and the price of urea is expected to oscillate strongly, but the upside is limited by high daily production [22].

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 18 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | | | | SC：元/桶 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌幅% | 成交量（万手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI | 主力 | 58.66 | 59.81 | 60.47 | 58.66 | 2.00 | 30.09 | | Brent | 主力 | 63.36 | 64.29 | 64.87 | 63.36 | 2.03 | 46.11 | | SC | 主力（元/桶） | 456.6 | 458.1 | 462.2 | 455.4 | 0.59 | 4.36 | 数据来源：wind,建信期货研究发展部 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3 ...