Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. The current situation is an off - season for crude oil demand. Due to the winter storm, EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories decreased more than expected, and refined oil inventories also decreased significantly, leading to a continuous reduction in overall oil product inventories. However, global crude oil floating storage is high, and the crude oil market remains in a supply - surplus pattern. The latest EIA January report has raised the surplus amplitude for 2026. With multiple geopolitical uncertainties and the weakening of the current cold snap, it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate within a range in the near future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. The winter storm led to an unexpected reduction in U.S. crude oil and refined oil inventories, but the global crude oil floating storage is high, and the market is in a supply - surplus pattern. Saudi Aramco has lowered the price of Arabian Light crude oil for Asia in March 2025 by 30 cents per barrel. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. The U.S. - Iran nuclear negotiations in Muscat have "temporarily" ended, and there are uncertainties in the Iranian geopolitical situation. The U.S. has adjusted tariffs on India, and India may increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas. The Russia - Ukraine - U.S. talks have not made substantial progress on core issues, and the U.S. is seeking a cease - fire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by June [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2604 rose 0.91% to 476.8 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 471.9 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 478.8 yuan/ton, and an increase in open interest of 1649 to 45913 lots [2]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - EIA raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by 0.79 dollars per barrel to 52.21 dollars per barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production forecast from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day. IEA raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day and raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day. On the evening of February 4, U.S. EIA data showed that for the week ending January 30, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 3.455 million barrels (expected to increase by 489,000 barrels), gasoline inventories increased by 685,000 barrels (expected to increase by 1.389 million barrels), refined oil inventories decreased by 5.553 million barrels (expected to decrease by 2.255 million barrels), and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 743,000 barrels [3]. 4. Supply - side Situation - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in November was adjusted down by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.459 million barrels per day, and its production in December 2025 increased by 105,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.564 million barrels per day. Due to the winter storm, U.S. crude oil production in the week of January 30 decreased by 484,000 barrels per day to 13.215 million barrels per day, the largest decline since January 19, 2024. The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products increased to 20.802 million barrels per day, a 2.54% increase compared to the same period last year. Among them, gasoline weekly production decreased by 6.90% month - on - month to 8.153 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 8.262 million barrels per day, a 0.44% decrease compared to the same period last year; diesel weekly production increased by 5.92% month - on - month to 4.31 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 4 million barrels per day, a 2.35% increase compared to the same period last year. Diesel and other oil products rebounded significantly month - on - month, driving the weekly supply of U.S. crude oil products to continue to increase by 3.28% month - on - month [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. Although it is the off-season for crude oil demand, due to the impact of the winter storm, EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories have decreased more than expected, and refined oil inventories have also decreased more than expected, with overall oil product inventories continuing to decline. However, global floating crude oil storage remains high, and the crude oil market remains in a state of supply surplus. The latest EIA January report has raised the expected supply surplus for 2026. Saudi Aramco has announced a 30 - cent per barrel price cut for Arabian Light crude oil to be shipped to Asia in March 2025. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil, which currently has little impact on global crude oil supply and demand. The US - Iran nuclear negotiations in Muscat, Oman, have “temporarily” ended. The geopolitical risk in Iran remains highly uncertain. Iran has a large crude oil production capacity, and attention should be paid to the US - Iran negotiations. Trump has announced that the so - called “reciprocal tariffs” imposed by the US on Indian goods will be reduced from 25% to 18% immediately. Modi has agreed that India will stop buying Russian oil and purchase more oil from the US, and may also buy oil from Venezuela. Indian refineries may increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas. The new round of talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the US ended in the UAE on the 5th. Although a new round of prisoner exchanges was completed, no substantial progress was made on core issues such as territory and ceasefire. The geopolitical situation in Iran has repeatedly caused sharp fluctuations in oil prices. With the current cold wave weakening, attention should be paid to the impact of the next cold wave. The production at Kazakhstan's Tengiz oil field has recovered to 60% of its peak, and full production is expected to resume on February 23. It is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate within a range in the near future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - OPEC+ eight member countries will suspend the increase in oil production in March. The winter storm has led to a larger - than - expected reduction in US crude oil and refined oil inventories, but the global floating crude oil storage is high, and the supply surplus situation persists. Saudi Aramco has cut the price of Arabian Light crude oil to Asia. Chevron is increasing Venezuelan oil transportation. The US - Iran nuclear negotiations have “temporarily” ended, and the geopolitical risk in Iran is uncertain. Trump has reduced tariffs on Indian goods, and India may adjust its oil - purchasing sources. The Russia - Ukraine - US talks have not made substantial progress on core issues. The geopolitical situation in Iran causes oil price fluctuations. The cold wave is weakening, and attention should be paid to the next one. The Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan is expected to fully resume production on February 23, and crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main crude oil futures contract 2604 rose 2.17% to 476.1 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 465.2 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 477.9 yuan/ton, and an increase in open interest of 1256 to 44,264 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report has raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79 per barrel to $52.21 per barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production forecast from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day. The IEA has raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day and raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day. On the evening of February 4, EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories for the week ending January 30 decreased by 3.455 million barrels, compared with an expected increase of 489,000 barrels, and were 1.25% higher than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories increased by 685,000 barrels, compared with an expected increase of 1.389 million barrels. Refined oil inventories decreased by 5.553 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 2.255 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 743,000 barrels [3]. Supply - Side Situation - The latest OPEC monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in November decreased by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.459 million barrels per day, and its production in December 2025 increased by 105,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.564 million barrels per day. Due to the impact of the winter storm, US crude oil production for the week ending January 30 decreased by 484,000 barrels per day to 13.215 million barrels per day, the largest decline since January 19, 2024. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products has increased to 20.802 million barrels per day, a 2.54% increase compared with the same period last year, changing from being lower than the same period last year to being higher. Among them, the weekly gasoline production decreased by 6.90% to 8.153 million barrels per day, the four - week average production was 8.262 million barrels per day, a 0.44% decrease compared with the same period last year. The weekly diesel production increased by 5.92% to 4.31 million barrels per day, the four - week average production was 4 million barrels per day, a 2.35% increase compared with the same period last year. The rebound in diesel and other oil products has driven a 3.28% month - on - month increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4].

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are experiencing fluctuations as investors assess the progress of nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, with WTI closing above $63 per barrel and market reactions being significant to related news [1][5]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - WTI crude oil increased by 0.4% in March, settling at $63.55 per barrel [2][8]. - Brent crude oil rose by 0.7% to $68.05 per barrel in April [3][9]. - Oil prices expanded their gains following unexpected data showing U.S. consumer confidence rising to a six-month high, alleviating concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy and its impact on oil demand [7]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif stated that the negotiations had a "good start," but reports indicate Tehran's insistence on continuing uranium enrichment, which remains a primary concern for the U.S. [1][5]. - Traders are weighing geopolitical tensions while also considering the potential for oversupply in the oil market [6]. - The recent U.S.-Iran talks have contributed to easing fears of a broader conflict in the region, leading to the first weekly decline in oil prices since mid-December [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. The current oil market is in a state of oversupply, but due to the impact of winter storms, U.S. crude oil inventories have decreased more than expected, and overall oil product inventories continue to decline. The Iranian nuclear negotiations have uncertain geopolitical risks, and the situation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has not made substantial progress. The restoration of production at the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan has been delayed. It is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate within a range in the near future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. Winter is the off-season for crude oil demand, but due to the impact of winter storms, EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have decreased more than expected, and refined oil inventories have decreased more than expected, with overall oil product inventories continuing to decline. However, global floating crude oil storage is high, and the crude oil market remains in a state of oversupply. The latest EIA monthly report in January has raised the surplus range for 2026. Saudi Aramco has announced a 30 - cent per barrel price cut for Arabian light crude oil shipped to Asia in March 2025. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. The Iranian nuclear negotiations have uncertain geopolitical risks, and Trump has announced a reduction in "reciprocal tariffs" on Indian goods from 25% to 18%. India may increase its crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas. The Russia-Ukraine talks in the UAE have not made substantial progress. The Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan will resume half of its production capacity by February 7. The repeated Iranian geopolitical situation has caused sharp fluctuations in oil prices. It is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate within a range in the near future [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract, the 2603 contract, rose 0.37% to 465.4 yuan per ton, with a minimum price of 454.4 yuan per ton, a maximum price of 470.0 yuan per ton, and an open interest decrease of 5297 to 16308 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report has raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by 0.79 dollars per barrel to 52.21 dollars per barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production forecast from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day. The IEA has raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day. On the evening of February 4, U.S. EIA data showed that for the week ending January 30, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 3.455 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 685,000 barrels, refined oil inventories decreased by 5.553 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 743,000 barrels [3]. Supply - side - The latest OPEC monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in November decreased by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.459 million barrels per day, and its production in December 2025 increased by 105,000 barrels per day to 28.564 million barrels per day. Due to the impact of winter storms, U.S. crude oil production in the week of January 30 decreased by 484,000 barrels per day to 13.215 million barrels per day, the largest decline since January 19, 2024. According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Administration, the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products has increased to 20.802 million barrels per day, a 2.54% increase compared to the same period last year. Among them, gasoline weekly production decreased by 6.90% to 8.153 million barrels per day, and diesel weekly production increased by 5.92% to 4.31 million barrels per day [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, crude oil rebounded with escalating geopolitical risks. Over the weekend, the unstable situation in Iran persisted. Trump received a briefing on the military strike plan against Iran but has not made a final decision to authorize the strike. Israel is on high alert for the possible US intervention in Iran, and Iran has warned that it will strike Israel and the US if attacked. The Iranian president has shown a willingness to meet with protest groups, indicating a reconciliation tendency. If the US launches a strike against Iran, oil prices may surge due to geopolitical risks. From a fundamental perspective, oil inventories increased this week. The Dubai monthly spread weakened slightly after opening low, gasoline cracking strengthened while diesel cracking fluctuated, and European refinery profits declined. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation, and the price pattern in the first quarter is expected to be high and volatile [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily News - As the US and Iran are preparing for diplomatic negotiations, the White House is secretly consulting influential Iranian - American figures to formulate a transition plan for the potential collapse of the current Iranian regime [3] - The oversupply of crude oil is becoming increasingly severe, and Saudi Arabia has lowered crude oil prices for Asian buyers. Saudi Aramco has cut the price of "Arab Light" oil for Asian buyers by 30 cents per barrel, bringing it in line with the March benchmark price in the region. This is the lowest oil price level since the end of 2020 [4] - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the US will consider whether to sanction Russia's shadow oil tanker fleet, and further sanctions against Russia depend on the peace negotiations [4] 3.2 Inventory - For the week ending February 21, EIA crude oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma were 128.2 million barrels (previous value: 147.2 million barrels), EIA crude oil inventories were - 233.2 million barrels (expected: 260.5 million barrels, previous value: 463.3 million barrels), EIA gasoline inventories were 36.9 million barrels (expected: - 84.9 million barrels, previous value: - 15.1 million barrels), EIA refined oil inventories were 390.8 million barrels (expected: - 148.8 million barrels, previous value: - 205.1 million barrels), EIA refinery utilization rate was 86.5% (expected: 84.8%, previous value: 84.9%), and EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventories were 0 million barrels (previous value: 0 million barrels) [4] 3.3 Weekly View - Crude oil rebounded this week with rising geopolitical risks. The unstable situation in Iran continued over the weekend. Trump received a briefing on the military strike plan against Iran but has not made a final decision. Israel is highly vigilant about possible US intervention in Iran, and Iran has warned of retaliation. The Iranian president's willingness to meet protest groups shows a reconciliation tendency. A US strike on Iran could cause oil prices to rise due to geopolitical risks. Fundamentally, oil inventories increased, the Dubai monthly spread weakened after opening low, gasoline cracking strengthened while diesel cracking fluctuated, and European refinery profits declined. The price pattern in the first quarter is expected to be high and volatile [5]

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing a retreat in prices after a period of increase, attributed to the easing of geopolitical risk premiums and concerns over economic growth impacting oil demand [1]. Group 1: Geopolitical Factors - Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed that US-Iran talks will take place in Oman, alleviating fears of imminent military conflict in the Middle East that could disrupt oil supply [1]. - The market's concerns regarding potential military conflicts in the Middle East have significantly diminished, leading to a release of previously accumulated geopolitical risk premiums [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent US private sector employment data showed weak performance, raising concerns about economic growth slowdown, which in turn has cast doubt on the oil demand outlook [1]. - The combination of weak employment data and geopolitical uncertainties has contributed to the downward pressure on oil prices [1]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Saudi Arabia has lowered the official selling price of its main crude oil varieties for Asian buyers to a multi-year low, although the actual reduction was less than market expectations, indicating a response to temporary supply easing rather than a pessimistic view on demand [1]. - Shell's CEO Wael Sawan noted that while there is a degree of supply surplus in the market, it is balanced by geopolitical challenges that create significant uncertainty, which itself contributes to price premiums [1]. Group 4: Ongoing Conflicts - Traders are closely monitoring the situation in Ukraine, as President Zelensky indicated that Russian attacks on energy infrastructure could affect negotiation processes, adding to the emotional uncertainty in the oil market [1].

Core Viewpoint - Saudi Arabia is reducing the price of its main crude oil grade sold to Asian buyers to the lowest level in years, indicating that global oil supply has exceeded demand [1] Price Adjustment - Saudi Aramco will lower the price of "Arab Light" crude oil for Asian buyers by $0.30 per barrel, aligning it with the March benchmark price in the region [1] - This price cut is below the lowest expectations from refiners and traders surveyed [1] - The new pricing represents the lowest oil price level for Saudi Arabia since the end of 2020 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. Although it is the off - season for crude oil demand, due to the impact of winter storms, EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories have decreased more than expected, and refined oil inventories have also decreased significantly. However, the global floating crude oil storage is high, and the crude oil market is still in a supply - surplus pattern. The latest January EIA monthly report has raised the surplus amplitude for 2026. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil, but currently, Venezuela has little impact on the global crude oil supply - demand. Geopolitical risks in Iran are highly uncertain, and the US - Iran nuclear negotiation is scheduled to be held in Muscat. The US has reduced tariffs on Indian goods, and India may increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas. The first - day negotiation between Russia, the US, and Ukraine has ended, and the restart of the Tengiz oil field is in progress but with limited capacity recovery. Due to the repeated geopolitical situation in Iran and the weakening of the current cold wave, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the near future [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - OPEC+ eight member countries will suspend the increase in oil production in March. The winter storm has led to an unexpected reduction in US crude oil and refined oil inventories, but the global floating crude oil storage is high, and the supply - surplus pattern remains. Chevron is increasing Venezuelan crude oil transportation. Geopolitical risks in Iran are uncertain, with the US - Iran nuclear negotiation scheduled. The US has reduced tariffs on Indian goods, and India may adjust its crude oil procurement. The first - day negotiation between Russia, the US, and Ukraine has ended, and the Tengiz oil field is restarting with limited capacity recovery. Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2603 rose 1.13% to 463.5 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 457.5 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 475.0 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 6074 to 21605 lots [2]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by 0.79 dollars/barrel to 52.21 dollars/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand from the previous forecast of 105.2 million barrels/day to 104.8 million barrels/day, and raised the 2026 global oil production from the previous forecast of 107.4 million barrels/day to 107.7 million barrels/day. The IEA raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels/day to 930,000 barrels/day and raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels/day to 2.5 million barrels/day. US EIA data on February 4 showed that for the week ending January 30, US crude oil inventories decreased by 3.455 million barrels (expected to increase by 489,000 barrels), gasoline inventories increased by 685,000 barrels (expected to increase by 1.389 million barrels), refined oil inventories decreased by 5.553 million barrels (expected to decrease by 2.255 million barrels), and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 743,000 barrels [3]. 4. Supply - side Situation - The OPEC latest monthly report showed that OPEC's crude oil production in November was adjusted down by 21,000 barrels/day to 28.459 million barrels/day, and its production in December 2025 increased by 105,000 barrels/day to 28.564 million barrels/day. Due to the winter storm, US crude oil production in the week of January 30 decreased by 484,000 barrels/day to 13.215 million barrels/day, the largest decline since January 19, 2024. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.802 million barrels/day, a 2.54% increase compared to the same period last year. Gasoline weekly production decreased by 6.90% to 8.153 million barrels/day, with a four - week average production of 8.262 million barrels/day, a 0.44% decrease compared to the same period last year. Diesel weekly production increased by 5.92% to 4.31 million barrels/day, with a four - week average production of 4 million barrels/day, a 2.35% increase compared to the same period last year. The increase in diesel and other oil products drove the weekly supply of US crude oil products to continue to increase by 3.28% [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that crude oil prices will fluctuate within a range in the near term due to factors such as the OPEC+ production plan, US inventory changes, economic growth forecasts, geopolitical risks, and the weakening of the current cold snap [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Eight OPEC+ member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March [1]. - Despite the off - season for crude oil demand, due to the winter storm, EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories decreased more than expected, while refined oil inventories increased slightly, resulting in an overall decrease in oil product inventories [1][3]. - The International Monetary Fund raised the world economic growth rate for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points last week, and cold weather boosted the demand for diesel for heating, alleviating demand concerns [1]. - Global crude oil floating storage is high, and the crude oil market remains in a supply - surplus situation. The EIA's latest January report raised the surplus margin for 2026 [1]. - Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil, but currently, Venezuela has little impact on global crude oil supply and demand [1]. - Geopolitical risks in Iran remain highly uncertain. Although there were signs of negotiation, there were also recent military - related incidents such as the US shooting down an Iranian drone and reports of Iranian armed boats trying to stop a US - flagged oil tanker [1]. - The next round of Ukraine - issue negotiations will be held in Abu Dhabi from February 4th to 5th [1]. - The US will reduce the so - called "reciprocal tariff" on Indian goods from 25% to 18% immediately. India may increase crude oil purchases from the US, Venezuela, and the Middle East [1]. - The power supply system of the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan has been safely restarted, and the repair of the CPC 3rd offshore mooring terminal has been completed. However, the operator said that only half of the oilfield's production capacity can be restored by February 7th [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, the 2603 contract, rose 2.80% to 462.4 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 451.7 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 466.7 yuan/ton. The持仓 volume decreased by 5245 to 27679 lots [2]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79/barrel to $52.21/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production forecast from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day [3]. - The IEA raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day but raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day [3]. - According to EIA data on January 28th, for the week ending January 23rd in the US, crude oil inventories decreased by 2.295 million barrels (expected to increase by 1.848 million barrels), gasoline inventories increased by 223,000 barrels (expected to increase by 1.009 million barrels), refined oil inventories increased by 329,000 barrels (expected to decrease by 583,000 barrels), heating oil inventories increased by 26,000 barrels (expected to increase by 279,000 barrels), and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 278,000 barrels [3]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - The OPEC latest monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in November was adjusted down by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.459 million barrels per day, and its production in December 2025 increased by 105,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.564 million barrels per day [4]. - US crude oil production in the week of January 23rd decreased by 36,000 barrels per day to 13.696 million barrels per day, which is near the historical high [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.271 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.08% compared with the same period last year, and the decline compared with the same period last year has decreased [4]. - Gasoline weekly production increased by 11.78% to 8.757 million barrels per day, with a four - week average production of 8.266 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.39% compared with the same period last year [4]. - Diesel weekly production increased by 15.47% to 4.069 million barrels per day, with a four - week average production of 3.721 million barrels per day, a decrease of 4.78% compared with the same period last year [4]. - The week - on - week increase in gasoline and diesel production led to a 2.49% week - on - week increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4].

Report Overview - Report Title: Guantong Futures Research Report - February 2026 Crude Oil Monthly Report - Release Date: February 2, 2026 - Analyst: Su Miaoda [1] Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. Due to the impact of winter storms, the EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have decreased more than expected, while refined oil inventories have slightly increased, and the overall oil product inventory has decreased. The recent increase in the world economic growth rate by the IMF and the cold weather have alleviated demand concerns, but the enthusiasm for crude oil demand will decline after mid-February. The global crude oil floating storage is high, and the crude oil market remains in a supply surplus situation. The EIA's latest January monthly report has raised the surplus幅度 of crude oil supply in 2026. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. The geopolitical risks in Iran have cooled down, but attention should still be paid to the situation in Iran. The geopolitical situation has cooled down, the impact of the cold wave is short - term, and the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan is gradually recovering. It is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate weakly in February [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In January 2026, crude oil prices first declined and then rebounded. At the beginning of the month, the U.S. raided Venezuela and arrested Maduro, but the global crude oil market had digested the impact of restricted Venezuelan crude oil exports before New Year's Day. Trump said that Venezuela would transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., and Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. As Iran had riots and the U.S. increased its military presence in the Middle East, along with the increase in the world economic growth rate by the IMF and the cold - weather - driven diesel heating demand, demand concerns were alleviated, and crude oil prices rebounded [7]. 2. Crude Oil Position and Warehouse Receipt Situation - In the past two weeks, the net long position of Brent crude oil managed funds has continued to increase. As of the week ending January 20, the net long position of Brent crude oil managed funds increased by 8,509 contracts to 216,970 contracts, an increase of 4.08% and 71.95% compared to the end of December. The enthusiasm for crude oil speculation has rebounded since mid - December 2025 but remains at a relatively low - to - neutral level in recent years. As of January 28, the number of Shanghai crude oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3.464 million barrels compared to the end of December 2025, still at a low level [11]. 3. Crude Oil Production - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in November decreased by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.459 million barrels per day, and its production in December 2025 increased by 105,000 barrels per day to 28.564 million barrels per day. OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. U.S. crude oil production in the week ending January 23 decreased by 36,000 barrels per day to 13.696 million barrels per day, which is near the historical high. The U.S. Energy Secretary called for more than doubling the global oil production at the World Economic Forum [15]. 4. Oil Drilling Rigs - In January, the number of U.S. oil drilling rigs decreased slightly. As of the week ending January 23, the number of U.S. oil drilling rigs was 411, an increase of 1 compared to the previous week and a decrease of 1 compared to the week ending December 30. The slight decline of U.S. oil drilling platforms has increased the expectation that low oil prices will limit U.S. crude oil production growth [19]. 5. U.S. Crude Oil Imports and Exports - According to U.S. Energy Administration data, as of the week ending January 23, U.S. crude oil imports decreased by 805,000 barrels per day to 5.642 million barrels per day, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years; U.S. crude oil exports increased by 901,000 barrels per day to 4.589 million barrels per day, at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years [23]. 6. China's Crude Oil Processing and Imports - China's domestic crude oil processing volume rebounded month - on - month. In December, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 26.85% month - on - month to 62.459 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%, at the highest level in the same period of previous years. From January to December, China's cumulative crude oil processing volume increased by 4.10% year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rate rebounded slightly. China's domestic crude oil imports also rebounded month - on - month, at the highest level in the same period of previous years. In December, China's crude oil imports increased by 9.98% month - on - month to 55.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.4%. From January to December, China's cumulative crude oil imports increased by 4.40% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate continued to rebound slightly [27]. 7. U.S. Economic Data and Fed Policy - U.S. non - farm payrolls in December 2025 increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 70,000 and the previous value of 64,000. The unemployment rate in December 2025 was 4.4%, better than the expected 4.5% and the previous value of 4.6%. The non - farm payrolls in October and November were revised down by a total of 76,000. The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) in December 2025 increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the same as the previous month but higher than market expectations. The core CPI in December 2025 increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.6% year - on - year before seasonal adjustment. The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75% in the January interest - rate meeting, in line with market expectations. Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Fed Chairman [31]. 8. Gasoline Crack Spreads - In January, the U.S. gasoline crack spread increased by $2.0 per barrel, while the European gasoline crack spread decreased by $5.0 per barrel. The U.S. and European diesel crack spreads increased by $4.0 per barrel and $2.0 per barrel respectively [35]. 9. U.S. Gasoline and Diesel Demand - The EIA monthly report raised the WTI crude oil price forecast for 2026 by $0.79 per barrel to $52.21 per barrel, lowered the global oil demand forecast for 2026 from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the global oil production forecast for 2026 from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day. The IEA raised the global oil demand growth rate forecast for 2026 by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day and raised the global oil production growth rate forecast for 2026 by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day. According to the latest U.S. Energy Administration data, the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products increased to 20.271 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 0.08%, and the year - on - year decline has decreased. The weekly production of gasoline increased by 11.78% to 8.757 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 8.266 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 0.39%. The weekly production of diesel increased by 15.47% to 4.069 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 3.721 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 4.78%. The increase in gasoline and diesel production has driven the weekly supply of U.S. crude oil products to increase by 2.49% month - on - month [40]. 10. Crude Oil Inventory - On the evening of January 28, U.S. EIA data showed that as of the week ending January 23, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.295 million barrels, compared with an expected increase of 1.848 million barrels, and were 2.94% higher than the five - year average. The inventory in the Cushing area was reported at 24.785 million barrels, a decrease of 278,000 barrels compared with the previous week, at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The gasoline inventory increased by 223,000 barrels, compared with an expected increase of 1.009 million barrels. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 515,000 barrels to 414.9 million barrels as of the week ending January 23, the highest since the week ending September 30, 2022, and has increased for 26 consecutive weeks [44][48]. 11. Geopolitical Risks - Iranian official Larryjani said on January 31 that the negotiation framework is gradually taking shape. On February 1, eight foreign ministers issued a joint statement condemning Israel for violating the Gaza cease - fire agreement. A new round of tripartite talks between Ukraine, the U.S., and Russia will be held on February 4 and 5, and no formal cease - fire agreement on energy goals has been reached between Russia and Ukraine. Trump believes that an agreement on Cuba is about to be reached and that the negotiation on Greenland has started and the agreement is basically reached [50].