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纯苯苯乙烯日报:纯苯期货升水幅度扩大-20250711
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-11 03:18
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The recent BZ2603 rally results from the combined forces of industry anti - arbitrage and the compression of styrene production profit. The BZ futures premium has further expanded, with limited potential for increasing the pure benzene processing fee. Styrene port inventory is continuously accumulating, and its production profit faces further compression pressure. The decline in EPS and PS开工 further drags down EB demand [3] Summary by Directory I. Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread of Pure Benzene and EB - Relevant figures include the pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, pure benzene consecutive one - contract to consecutive three - contract spread, EB main contract trend & basis, EB main contract basis, and styrene consecutive one - contract to consecutive three - contract spread [8][11][14][17] II. Production Profit and Internal - External Spread of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Relevant figures cover naphtha processing fee, pure benzene FOB Korea - naphtha CFR Japan spread, styrene non - integrated plant production profit, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - pure benzene FOB Korea spread, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - CFR China spread, pure benzene FOB Rotterdam - CFR China spread, pure benzene import profit, styrene import profit, styrene FOB US Gulf - CFR China spread, and styrene FOB Rotterdam - CFR China spread [19][22][27][30][32] III. Inventory and Operating Rate of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Relevant figures are pure benzene East China port inventory, pure benzene operating rate, styrene East China port inventory, styrene operating rate, styrene East China commercial inventory, and styrene factory inventory [37][39][42] IV. Operating Rate and Production Profit of Styrene Downstream - Relevant figures involve EPS operating rate, EPS production profit, PS operating rate, PS production profit, ABS operating rate, and ABS production profit [48][50][52] V. Operating Rate and Production Profit of Pure Benzene Downstream - Relevant figures include caprolactam operating rate, phenol - acetone operating rate, aniline operating rate, adipic acid operating rate, caprolactam production gross profit, phenol - acetone production gross profit, aniline production gross profit, adipic acid production gross profit, PA6 regular spun bright production gross profit, nylon filament production gross profit, bisphenol A production gross profit, PC production gross profit, epoxy resin E - 51 production gross profit, pure MDI production gross profit, and polymer MDI production gross profit [57][61][70][78][81][82] Market Data Pure Benzene - Main contract basis: - 268 yuan/ton (- 103) [1] - Port inventory: 17.40 tons (- 0.30 tons) [1] - CFR China processing fee: 140 dollars/ton (- 5 dollars/ton) [1] - FOB Korea processing fee: 126 dollars/ton (- 5 dollars/ton) [1] - US - Korea spread: 113.9 dollars/ton (- 7.0 dollars/ton) [1] - East China pure benzene spot - M2 spread: - 95 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton) [1] Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam production profit: - 1910 yuan/ton (- 105) [1] - Phenol - acetone production profit: - 564 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] - Aniline production profit: - 171 yuan/ton (- 305) [1] - Adipic acid production profit: - 1487 yuan/ton (- 72) [1] - Caprolactam operating rate: 95.72% (+ 0.00%) [1] - Phenol operating rate: 78.00% (- 0.50%) [1] - Aniline operating rate: 70.90% (+ 1.66%) [1] - Adipic acid operating rate: 65.70% (+ 1.40%) [1] Styrene - Main contract basis: 205 yuan/ton (- 80 yuan/ton) [1] - Non - integrated production profit: 219 yuan/ton (+ 26 yuan/ton), expected to gradually compress [1] - East China port inventory: 111,500 tons (+ 12,700 tons) [1] - East China commercial inventory: 39,000 tons (+ 7,700 tons), in the inventory rebuilding stage [1] - Operating rate: 79.2% (- 0.8%) [1] Styrene Downstream (Hard Rubber) - EPS production profit: - 48 yuan/ton (- 89 yuan/ton) [2] - PS production profit: - 298 yuan/ton (- 39 yuan/ton) [2] - ABS production profit: 318 yuan/ton (- 74 yuan/ton) [2] - EPS operating rate: 51.06% (- 4.82%) [2] - PS operating rate: 51.10% (- 1.30%) [2] - ABS operating rate: 65.00% (- 0.04%), at a seasonal low [2] Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see for pure benzene and styrene [4] - Basis and inter - period: For near - month BZ paper cargo - far - month BZ2603 futures, conduct anti - arbitrage at high prices [4] - Cross - variety: Narrow the EB - BZ spread at high prices [4]
黑色金属数据日报-20250702
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 03:34
| 2025/07/02 | | 国贸期货出品 ITG 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | 节子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | 远月合约收盘价 | RB2601 | HC2601 | 12601 | J2601 | JM2601 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (元/吨) | | | | | | | | 7月1日 | 3016.00 | 3136.00 | 685. 00 | 1427.50 | 857.00 | | | 涨跌值 | -7.00 | -4.00 | -7. 50 | -36. 50 | -29.00 | | | 涨跌幅(%) | -0.23 | -0. 13 | -1.08 | -2. 49 | -3.27 - | | | 近月合约收盘价 ...
原料供应有边际改善迹象 焦炭目前期货升水明显
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-27 07:03
6月26日,大商所焦炭期货仓单90手,环比上个交易日持平。 后市来看,焦炭期货行情将如何运行,相关机构观点汇总如下: 瑞达期货(002961)分析称,现货端,焦炭第4轮提降落地。囤货效应推升美国与亚洲国家的贸易逆差 持续扩大,前5个月美国的贸易逆差或将创下历史同期最高纪录。基本面,原料端供应有边际改善迹 象,铁水产量高位运行。利润方面,本期全国30家独立焦化厂平均吨焦亏损23元/吨。技术方面,4小时 周期K线位于20和60均线上方,操作上,偏多交易,请投资者注意风险控制。 方正中期期货表示,焦炭第四轮全面落地,现货施压盘面,港口焦炭湿熄焦仓单成本已至1300元/吨左 右,目前期货升水明显,面临套保压力,此外能源大跌也对焦炭形成拖累。焦化企业在利润和环保约束 双重作用下出现减产动作,而当前五大钢种表观需求呈下滑态势,原料需求增长空间受限,焦炭自身面 临价格压力,需要焦煤提供支撑。从长期视角看,当前价格水平相对偏低,上行空间明显大于下跌风 险,单边操作建议焦炭可在价格回调后分批建立多头仓位。 6月27日,国内期市主力合约涨跌不一。其中,焦炭期货主力合约开盘报1389.0元/吨,今日盘中高位震 荡运行;截至发稿,焦 ...
碳酸锂:5 月 14 日价格波动 出口向好
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-15 03:54
Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing fluctuations in prices and demand, with a notable increase in export volumes of electric vehicles from China, particularly in the new energy vehicle sector [1] Market Dynamics - The main contract for lithium carbonate opened at 63,860 CNY/ton and closed at 65,200 CNY/ton, reflecting a 3.0% increase from the previous settlement price [1] - Trading volume reached 377,525 lots, while open interest decreased by 17,270 lots to 276,956 lots [1] - Total open interest across all contracts was 465,422 lots, down by 3,011 lots from the previous day [1] - The total trading volume increased by 198,389 lots compared to the previous day, with a speculative ratio of 1.02 [1] Pricing Information - Current spot prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate range from 63,600 to 65,800 CNY/ton, up by 100 CNY/ton from the previous day [1] - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 62,550 and 63,550 CNY/ton, also reflecting a 100 CNY/ton increase [1] - The futures market shows a premium of 500 CNY/ton for electric lithium carbonate [1] Demand and Supply Insights - Downstream enterprises exhibit low purchasing willingness, primarily relying on customer supply and long-term contracts to meet demand [1] - Upstream lithium salt manufacturers are strongly inclined to maintain prices, with transactions occurring mainly between traders and downstream companies [1] Export Trends - In April, China's automobile export volume reached 424,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 8.3% and a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [1] - New energy vehicle exports totaled 186,000 units, marking a significant month-on-month increase of 32.6% and a year-on-year increase of 64.5% [1] - Pure electric vehicle exports reached 120,000 units, with a month-on-month increase of 39.3% and a year-on-year increase of 35.3% [1] - Plug-in hybrid vehicle exports amounted to 62,000 units, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 19.9% and a year-on-year increase of 153.9% [1] Strategic Outlook - Short-term macroeconomic improvements are expected to drive a rebound in the market, suggesting a range trading strategy with a recommendation for upstream entities to sell high for hedging [1]
尿素:工厂节前促销,成交好转,关注可持续性
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 02:41
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic urea price has been oscillating downward. Agricultural fertilizer preparation has been postponed, and industrial demand has slowed down, leading to reduced flow of urea factory goods and inventory accumulation in most regions. After the factory significantly reduced prices for promotion, the mid - stream traders replenished their stocks, and the spot trading volume increased significantly on Monday. After the spot market showed signs of stabilization, the futures price rebounded. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the improved trading volume after the spot price increase and the possibility of spot - futures trading opportunities due to the large futures premium over the spot [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract (09 contract) was 1,781 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,772 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the trading volume was 208,654 lots, an increase of 25,084 lots; the open interest was 205,466 lots, a decrease of 4,743 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 4,999 tons, a decrease of 49 tons; the trading value was 739.284 million yuan, an increase of 92.433 million yuan. The basis in Shandong region was 9 yuan, down 34 yuan; the difference between Fengxi and the futures price was - 81 yuan, down 4 yuan; the difference between Dongguang and the futures price was 9 yuan, down 24 yuan; the spread between UR05 - UR09 was 7 yuan, down 2 yuan [1] - **Spot Market**: Among urea factory prices, Henan Xinlianxin was 1,790 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Shandong Ruixing was 1,750 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; Shanxi Fengxi was 1,700 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; Jiangsu Linggu was 1,830 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. Among trader prices, the price in Shandong region was 1,790 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price in Shanxi region was 1,700 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [1] - **Supply - side Indicators**: The operating rate was 83.92%, unchanged from the previous day; the daily output was 193,520 tons, unchanged [1] 3.2 Industry News - As of April 23, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.065 million tons, an increase of 158,800 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 17.52%. Provinces with increased enterprise inventory include Anhui, Hainan, etc.; provinces with decreased enterprise inventory include Liaoning and Yunnan [1] - After the factory significantly reduced prices for promotion, the mid - stream traders replenished their stocks, and the spot trading volume increased significantly on Monday. After the spot market showed signs of stabilization, the futures price rebounded. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the improved trading volume after the spot price increase and the possibility of spot - futures trading opportunities due to the large futures premium over the spot [3]