智通财经APP注意到，中东原油市场显示出更多疲软迹象，加重了有关全球原油供应过剩可能拖累价格 的担忧，同时让亚洲交易员能够无视委内瑞拉局势发展。 迪拜基准原油对布伦特期货的折价(即布伦特-迪拜期现掉期价差/EFS)周一达到8月以来最大水平，表明 供应充足。与此同时，迪拜掉期远期的曲线回归期货升水，这是一种看跌模式，特征为近期合约价格低 于远期合约。 此外，现货和迪拜基准价格的差价正在迅速缩小，预示着需求疲软。根据通用指数数据，中国等主要进 口国偏好的阿曼原油，对迪拜基准价格的溢价已从上月末的近每桶1美元降至接近平价水平。阿联酋的 Upper Zakum原油价格也被定为折价35美分，为2023年12月以来最弱水平。 部分中东原油交易价格低于基准水平 积压的销售量意味着阿拉伯海湾原油连续第四个月未能找到买家，而通常该地区能售出绝大部分供应原 油。 近几个月来，由于欧佩克+及其他产油国增产，全球原油供应持续超过需求，引发市场担忧。在此背景 下，主要原油基准布伦特期货去年下跌18%，创下2020年以来最差年度表现。目前多家银行预计油价将 进一步走弱，摩根士丹利本周已下调一系列价格预测。 中东地区出口全球约三分之一的原 ...

近几个月来，全球石油市场一直被一种担忧所主导，即在欧佩克+产油国以及其他钻探商增加产量后， 全球供应已经超过了需求。在此背景下，作为主要石油基准的布伦特原油期货去年下跌了18%，创下自 2020年以来的最差年度表现。许多银行目前预计市场将进一步疲软，摩根士丹利本周下调了一系列价格 预测。 中东在整体格局中占据关键地位，因为该地区的出口量约占全球原油的三分之一，且是亚洲炼油商的主 要供应来源。作为当前疲软态势的反映，沙特阿美本周连续第三个月大幅下调了对其亚洲主要客户的销 售价格，将其旗舰产品阿拉伯轻质原油的价差推至五年来的新低。 区域市场的宽松状态缓解了人们对美国干预委内瑞拉（包括抓获马杜罗和部分封锁油轮）可能中断该南 美国家石油流动的担忧。不过，据交易员称，目前还没有明显迹象表明亚洲买家急于抢购伊拉克巴士拉 原油等替代性的中东品种。 "过剩正在冲击中东市场，基本上所有指标都指向一个更疲软的实物市场，"ING Groep驻新加坡的大宗 商品策略主管Warren Patterson表示。他补充说，这是一个反复出现的主题，"市场参与者似乎并未受到 供应风险的干扰。" 据知情交易员透露，在中东，设定迪拜基准原油价格的 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-12-18 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日 熔量整体延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1135元/吨，SA2605收盘价为1170元/吨，基差为-35元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存149.43万吨，较前一周减少2.88%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张，今年仍有较大投产计划，行业产量处于历史同期高位。 ...

乙二醇供给端开工率稳定但利润分化，煤制和天然气制利润恶化可能限制 产能扩张，而乙烯制利润改善提供支撑；需求端聚酯和织机负荷持稳，下 游消费韧性较强；但库存端华东主港库存连续增加，叠加期货升水扩大和 成交放量，反映市场情绪偏多但基本面压力犹存。 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 乙二醇利空兑现，关注估值低位反弹可能性 一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差 ：乙二醇期货主力合约价格较前一日上涨49元至3700元/ 吨，涨幅1.34%，延续近日震荡上行趋势；华东市场现货价格同步上涨40元 至3670元/吨，涨幅1.1%。基差方面，现货对期货贴水从-21元扩大至-30 元，显示期货升水结构强化，可能反映市场对远期供需的乐观预期。 持仓与成交 ：主力合约成交量大幅增加67980手至229814手，涨幅 42.01%，交易活跃度显著提升；持仓量则减少32035手至170475手，跌幅 15.82%，结合成交放量，暗示短期投机性交易增加，部分头寸选择平仓离 场。 供给端 ：乙二醇总体开工率稳定在61.13%，油制和煤制开工率分别持平于 71.18%和49.34%。利润方面分化明显：乙烯制各工艺利润普遍改善，如SD 氧化法利润提升97元至 ...

纯碱早报 2025-12-17 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日 熔量整体延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1140元/吨，SA2605收盘价为1170元/吨，基差为-30元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存149.43万吨，较前一周减少2.88%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏空运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、设备问题导致企业减量检修，纯碱供应恢复较慢。 利空： 1、23年以来 ...

Core Viewpoint - Signs indicate that the long-discussed global oil supply surplus may have arrived, with OPEC's pessimistic forecast and increasing inventory data suggesting supply is outpacing demand, putting continuous pressure on oil prices [1][6][8] Group 1: OPEC's Shift in Forecast - OPEC has revised its global supply-demand balance forecast for Q3 from a shortage to a surplus, causing a significant market reaction with Brent crude futures dropping nearly 4% [1] - The organization now expects that due to increased production from OPEC+ countries, global oil supply will slightly exceed demand by 2026 [8] Group 2: U.S. Market Indicators - In the U.S. market, WTI spot price differentials have entered a contango state, indicating ample short-term supply [6][7] - U.S. crude oil inventories have reportedly increased, with API data showing a rise of 1.3 million barrels in the week ending November 7 [8] Group 3: Global Economic Implications - A sustained drop in oil prices could lead to lower gasoline prices, alleviating global inflation pressures, which would be beneficial for central banks and consumers [6] - The potential for lower energy costs is seen as a policy victory for U.S. President Trump [6] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Geopolitical Factors - Despite clear signs of oversupply, market sentiment remains mixed, influenced by geopolitical risks and the potential for short-term disruptions in Russian exports due to sanctions [9] - Analysts suggest that the market's negative reaction may be overdone, as the fundamental outlook has not significantly changed [9]

Core Insights - The global crude oil market is experiencing an oversupply, particularly evident in the Americas, especially the United States [1][2] - The futures curve for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is in a "contango" structure for most of 2026, indicating weak spot demand as future contracts are priced higher than near-term contracts [1][2] - U.S. crude oil exports reached their highest level since July 2024 in October, further confirming the ample supply situation [1][2] - In contrast, the Brent crude oil futures curve has remained relatively flat since March, highlighting differing levels of oversupply in various regional markets [1][2]

Core Insights - The global oil market is experiencing an oversupply, particularly evident in the Americas, especially the United States [1] - The WTI crude oil futures curve for most of 2026 is in a "contango" structure, indicating weak spot demand for crude oil [1] - High U.S. crude oil export levels further signify ample supply, with October exports reaching the highest level since July 2024 [1] - In contrast, the Brent crude oil futures curve has remained relatively flat since March, highlighting differing levels of oversupply across regions [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends across different commodity sectors, with factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand dynamics, and policy changes influencing prices. For example, the Fed's interest rate decisions, Sino - US trade negotiations, and seasonal production patterns all play significant roles [3][4]. - Different commodities have distinct investment outlooks. Some are expected to be bullish in the short - term or long - term, while others are likely to be bearish or range - bound. For instance, gold may have short - term volatility but is supported by the de - dollarization logic, while some energy and chemical products may face supply - driven downward pressure in the long run [4][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: After a sharp decline in price, it is recommended to buy on dips as the short - term trend is a pull - back after hitting a new high. The Fed's rate cut and Sino - US relations, along with LME's position limits, have affected the market [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to be oscillating strongly. With a warm domestic macro - environment, eased Sino - US trade friction, and overseas power supply issues, it is advisable to buy on dips [3]. - **Alumina**: The price is expected to decline as it returns to the fundamental surplus logic. However, the spot price shows signs of stabilizing. Buying call options on dips is recommended, and attention should be paid to the main position changes [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term price is expected to be strong due to high spot demand. High - frequency monitoring of inventory and warehouse receipt changes is recommended, and chasing long positions should be done with caution [5]. - **Tin**: The price is expected to be oscillating strongly, considering factors such as the Fed's rate cut, Sino - US relations, and LME's position limits [5]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to have significant short - term volatility. Buying on support levels is recommended, and silver long positions should be reduced. The de - dollarization logic remains, but market reactions to the Fed's decisions and Sino - US negotiations are complex [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: Hold long positions, with the RB01 reference range of 3060 - 3130 yuan/ton. The overall supply - demand contradiction is limited, and there is significant structural differentiation [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Hold long positions, with the I01 reference range of 780 - 810 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is marginally neutral - strong, and the inventory build - up may be slower than the historical average [6]. - **Coking Coal**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with the JM01 reference range of 1270 - 1320 yuan/ton. The futures valuation is high, and there is an expectation of production contraction [7]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans are short - term bullish, focusing on trade negotiations. The domestic market is range - bound, following the cost side. Attention should be paid to tariff policy progress [8]. - **Corn**: The futures price is expected to be oscillating weakly due to factors such as damaged grain quality in North China, new grain listing pressure, and production cost reduction [8]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils are bearish with structural differences. An anti - spread strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to production areas' output and biodiesel policies [8]. - **Cotton**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with a range - bound strategy between 13400 - 13700 yuan/ton, considering factors such as the strength of the US dollar and Sino - US trade negotiations [8]. - **Eggs**: The futures price is expected to be range - bound as the pressure eases [9]. - **Pigs**: The futures price is expected to be range - bound with improved demand and reduced second - fattening [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: In the short - term, it is expected to be weakly oscillating, and in the long - term, as new devices are put into operation, the supply - demand will be more relaxed. Short positions or month - spread anti - spreads can be considered on rallies [10]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand is in a weak balance. Short positions or anti - spreads are recommended [10]. - **PTA**: The medium - term supply - demand pattern is improving. Long positions are recommended, and shorting the processing margin on rallies is advisable [10]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to have a short - term pull - back and a medium - term range - bound trend. Band - trading is recommended [11]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand is in a weak balance. An anti - spread strategy is recommended [11]. - **PP**: In the short - term, it is expected to be weakly oscillating, and in the long - term, the supply - demand will be more relaxed. Short positions or month - spread anti - spreads can be considered on rallies [11]. - **MEG**: In the long - term, there is a large inventory build - up pressure. Shorting on rallies is recommended [11]. - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, it is expected to be oscillating. A wait - and - see approach is recommended, and attention should be paid to the reduction of Russian oil exports [11]. - **Styrene**: In the short - term, it is expected to be weakly oscillating, and in the long - term, the supply - demand will be more relaxed. Shorting on rallies or month - spread anti - spreads can be considered [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand is balanced, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [12].

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown is expected to end this week, alleviating investor concerns and contributing to a positive outlook for major company earnings reports [1] - All three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 1.12%, S&P 500 up 1.07%, and Nasdaq up 1.37% [1] - Technology stocks were the main drivers of the rebound, with Apple’s new phone sales significantly outperforming the previous model, leading to an upgrade in its stock rating to "buy" and a closing price increase of 3.94%, reaching a record high [1] Group 2 - International gold prices surged, reaching a record intraday high due to expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and increased gold purchases by global central banks, with December gold futures closing at $4,359.4 per ounce, up 3.47% [2] Group 3 - Amazon Web Services (AWS) experienced a service outage affecting multiple companies and popular websites, but this did not impact Amazon's stock price, which rose 1.61% as investors anticipate a strong Q3 earnings report on October 30 [3] - Approximately 85% of S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings so far have exceeded expectations [3] Group 4 - International oil prices fell slightly due to concerns over oversupply, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $57.52 per barrel, down 0.03%, and Brent crude oil futures at $61.01 per barrel, down 0.46% [4]