Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term outlook for the caustic soda market is bearish. The supply - demand contradiction has not been effectively alleviated, and prices are expected to remain under pressure. An approach of selling on rallies is recommended. Without a substantial improvement in the supply - demand contradiction, caustic soda prices are unlikely to have a trending upward movement and will mainly show a weak and volatile pattern [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Today's Market Review - The main contract of caustic soda futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange showed a volatile downward trend. It opened at 2164 yuan/ton, reached a high of 2169 yuan/ton, a low of 2123 yuan/ton, and closed at 2131 yuan/ton, down 2.74% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 485,679 lots, and the open interest was 208,787 lots, an increase of 9,209 lots from the previous day. The total open interest of the variety reached 325,746 lots, continuing the recent upward trend [2]. Spot Market Situation - On January 13, 2026, the market price (mid - price) of 30% diaphragm caustic soda in North China was 720 yuan/ton. According to Business Society data, the benchmark price of caustic soda on that day was 726.00 yuan/ton, down 1.63% from the beginning of the month (738.00 yuan/ton), in the low - price range of the year. There is a significant basis between the caustic soda futures price and the spot price, and the market shows a contango pattern [2]. Main Influencing Factors Analysis - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: The current caustic soda market has a pattern of "excess supply + weak demand". The supply side maintains high - level production with sufficient supply. On the demand side, non - aluminum industries mainly make low - price and rigid purchases, with low willingness to buy at high prices. The demand in the main alumina production areas has not changed much, and there is no new demand [2]. - **Macroeconomic environment**: In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, above the boom - bust line, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment, but it has not significantly boosted the downstream demand for caustic soda [3]. - **Related product market**: In the chlor - alkali industry chain, the PVC market was relatively strong today but failed to drive up the caustic soda price, suggesting that the supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda itself is the dominant factor [3]. Short - term Outlook - The caustic soda market fundamentals remain bearish in the short term. The supply side maintains high - level production, and there are no obvious signs of improvement on the demand side. Prices are expected to remain under pressure. Key factors to watch include basis changes, inventory inflection points, downstream demand changes, and the impact of macro - economic policies on manufacturing demand [4].

1. Report Information - Report Date: January 7, 2026 [1] - Report Cycle: Daily Report [1] - Researcher: Du Yu (Qualification Number: F3075043; Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0017815) [1] - Report Name: Shanghai Futures Daily [1] 2. Futures Market - On January 7, 2026, the lead futures main contract (Wind code: PB.SHF) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed strong performance, with a closing price of 17,830 yuan/ton, up 1.83% from the previous trading day [2] - The trading volume significantly increased to 83,341 lots, a 46.5% increase from the previous trading day's 56,885 lots, indicating a significant increase in market trading activity [2] - The open interest was 52,009 lots, a slight increase of 1,009 lots or about 2.0% from the previous trading day's 51,000 lots [2] - The settlement price was 17,690 yuan/ton, lower than the closing price, indicating an optimistic market sentiment, but some long - positions took profits at the end of the session [2] - The lead futures showed an oscillating upward trend on that day, mainly boosted by the market's growth expectation for the technology hardware and new energy vehicle industries, and the overall price - rising atmosphere of industrial resources also supported the lead price [2] 3. Spot Market Basis Analysis - On January 7, 2026, the lead futures basis was - 240 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of - 1.3644%, showing a futures premium pattern [3] - The average price of 1 lead in the spot market on that day was 17,590 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price was 17,830 yuan/ton, with the futures price higher than the spot price [3] - Looking back at the recent basis changes, the basis briefly narrowed to - 5 yuan/ton on January 5, indicating that the futures and spot prices were once close to balance, but it expanded again to - 80 yuan and - 240 yuan on January 6 and 7, reflecting the enhanced optimistic expectation of the futures market for the long - term lead price [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Middle East oil market is showing signs of weakness, raising concerns about a potential oversupply of global crude oil that could depress prices, while allowing Asian traders to overlook developments in Venezuela [1][5]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The Dubai benchmark crude's discount to Brent futures reached its widest level since August, indicating ample supply [1]. - The forward curve of Dubai swaps has reverted to a contango structure, characterized by recent contract prices being lower than future contracts, signaling bearish sentiment [1]. - The price differential between spot and Dubai benchmark prices is rapidly narrowing, suggesting weak demand [1]. Group 2: Price Trends - The premium for Oman crude, preferred by major importing countries like China, has dropped from nearly $1 per barrel at the end of last month to near parity with Dubai benchmark prices [1]. - The price of UAE's Upper Zakum crude has been set at a discount of $0.35, marking the weakest level since December 2023 [1]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global crude oil supply has consistently exceeded demand due to increased production from OPEC+ and other oil-producing countries, leading to concerns in the market [5]. - Brent futures fell 18% last year, marking the worst annual performance since 2020, with several banks predicting further declines in oil prices [5]. - Saudi Aramco has lowered prices for its flagship Arab Light crude for the third consecutive month, reaching a five-year low in pricing differentials for major Asian customers [5]. Group 4: Impact of Geopolitical Events - U.S. intervention in Venezuela, including the arrest of Maduro and partial blockade of oil tankers, could have disrupted Venezuelan oil exports, but the ample supply from the Middle East has alleviated such concerns [5]. - Chinese refineries, typically major buyers of Venezuelan crude, have not shown signs of urgently seeking alternatives like Iraqi Basrah crude [5]. Group 5: Sales and Inventory Issues - Approximately 8 million barrels of crude oil scheduled for February shipment remain unsold, including grades like UAE's Upper Zakum and Qatar's Al-Shaheen, which is unusual as such transactions typically conclude by the end of December [6]. - The backlog of unsold oil indicates that Arabian Gulf crude has failed to find buyers for the fourth consecutive month, despite the region's historical ability to sell most of its crude supply [6].

Group 1 - The Middle East oil market is showing signs of further weakness, raising concerns about a potential global supply surplus that could drive oil prices lower [1] - The price differential between Dubai benchmark crude and Brent crude futures has widened to its largest level since August, indicating ample supply [1] - The forward curve of Dubai swaps has returned to a "contango" structure, where near-term contract prices are lower than future contract prices, a typical bearish signal [1] Group 2 - Saudi Aramco has significantly lowered its selling prices to major Asian customers for the third consecutive month, pushing the price differential for its flagship Arab Light crude to a five-year low [2] - The current market conditions have alleviated concerns about U.S. intervention in Venezuela potentially disrupting oil flows from the South American country [2] - There is a notable lack of urgency among Asian buyers to purchase alternative Middle Eastern grades such as Iraq's Basrah crude [2] Group 3 - Approximately 8 million barrels of crude oil scheduled for shipment in February remain unsold, which is unusual as such supplies are typically sold by the end of December [3] - This backlog in sales indicates that it is the fourth consecutive month that Arabian Gulf crude has struggled to find buyers [3] - Historically, the region has been able to sell most of its oil offerings [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory levels. The industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved. In the short term, soda ash is expected to move in a volatile manner [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: Alkali plant production is at a high level, with the second - phase of Yuangxing expected to be put into operation before the end of the year, leading to an expected abundant supply. Downstream float glass and photovoltaic daily melting volumes are on a downward trend, and soda ash plant inventories are at a historically high level [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,135 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SA2605 is 1,170 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 35 yuan, indicating that the futures price is higher than the spot price [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 149.43 million tons, a 2.88% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [2]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [2]. - Expectation: Soda ash is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short term due to weak fundamentals [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - Bullish Factors: Equipment problems have led to enterprise production cuts for maintenance, resulting in a slow recovery of soda ash supply [3]. - Bearish Factors: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, reducing the demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Main Logic The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved [5]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,170 yuan/ton | 1,140 yuan/ton | - 30 yuan/ton | | Current Value | 1,170 yuan/ton | 1,135 yuan/ton | - 35 yuan/ton | | Change Rate | 0.00% | - 0.44% | 16.67% | [6] 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Supply in the Fundamentals - Production Profit: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 147.60 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process is - 129 yuan/ton, both at historically low levels [15]. - Operating Rate, Production Capacity, and Output: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 84.35%. The weekly production of soda ash is 73.54 million tons, including 39.78 million tons of heavy soda ash, with production at a historically high level [18][21]. - Production Capacity Changes: From 2023 to 2025, there have been and are still plans for significant increases in soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the total new production capacity was 6.4 billion tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 billion tons; and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 7.5 billion tons, with 1 billion tons actually put into production [22]. 3.7 Demand in the Fundamentals - Production - Sales Ratio: The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash is 106.02% [25]. - Downstream Demand: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 157,200 tons, with an operating rate of 74.85% [28]. 3.8 Inventory in the Fundamentals The national soda ash plant inventory is 149.43 million tons, a 2.88% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and various growth rates [35].

Price Trend Judgment - The price of ethylene glycol futures has been rising recently, but there is pressure on the fundamentals, and the price is likely to fluctuate. The reasons are as follows: on the cost side, the profits of coal-based and natural gas-based production have deteriorated, indicating a possible increase in costs; the profits of ethylene-based production have improved, possibly due to a decrease in ethylene costs. On the demand side, the loads of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms are stable, with no significant changes in demand. In terms of inventory, the port inventory has increased, indicating an oversupply pressure [39][41][45]. Ethylene Glycol Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The price of the main contract rose by 49 yuan to 3,700 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose by 40 yuan to 3,670 yuan/ton. The basis widened from -21 yuan to -30 yuan (the futures premium increased) [36][24][25]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The trading volume increased significantly by 42.01% to 229,814 lots, and the position decreased significantly by 15.82% to 170,475 lots, indicating active trading, but the decrease in position may mean that some positions were closed [36][29]. Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The overall operating rate remained stable at 61.13%, with the oil-based operating rate at 71.18% and the coal-based at 49.34%, both showing no changes. In terms of profits, the profits of ethylene-based production improved (e.g., SD oxidation method improved by 97 yuan), but the profits of coal-based and natural gas-based production deteriorated. This may affect future supply, but the current operating rate is stable [37][26][30]. - **Demand Side**: The load of polyester factories was 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 63.43%, both showing no changes. The demand was stable [38][40]. - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 25,000 tons to 844,000 tons, a 3.05% increase, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang slightly decreased by 2,000 tons to 318,000 tons. The inventory pressure increased [39][40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory. The industry's supply-demand mismatch has not improved effectively. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate with a downward trend [2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1170 yuan/ton, up 4.19%; the low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1140 yuan/ton, up 0.88%; the main basis was -30 yuan/ton, down 528.57% [6] 2. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1140 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12] 3. Fundamentals - Supply - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia-alkali method was -147.60 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co-production method was -129 yuan/ton, at a historical low [15] - **Operating Rate, Production Capacity and Output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 84.35%, and the weekly output was 73.54 tons, including 39.78 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [18][21] - **Changes in Production Capacity**: In 2023, the total new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity was 750 tons, with actual production of 100 tons [22] 4. Fundamentals - Demand - **Sales Ratio**: The weekly sales ratio of soda ash was 106.02% [25] - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.72 tons, with an operating rate of 74.85% [28] 5. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory in soda ash factories nationwide was 149.43 tons, a 2.88% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was above the 5-year average [34] 6. Fundamentals - Supply-Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply-demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply-demand gap, production capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35] 7. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply has been slow [3] - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production of the industry is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4]

Core Viewpoint - Signs indicate that the long-discussed global oil supply surplus may have arrived, with OPEC's pessimistic forecast and increasing inventory data suggesting supply is outpacing demand, putting continuous pressure on oil prices [1][6][8] Group 1: OPEC's Shift in Forecast - OPEC has revised its global supply-demand balance forecast for Q3 from a shortage to a surplus, causing a significant market reaction with Brent crude futures dropping nearly 4% [1] - The organization now expects that due to increased production from OPEC+ countries, global oil supply will slightly exceed demand by 2026 [8] Group 2: U.S. Market Indicators - In the U.S. market, WTI spot price differentials have entered a contango state, indicating ample short-term supply [6][7] - U.S. crude oil inventories have reportedly increased, with API data showing a rise of 1.3 million barrels in the week ending November 7 [8] Group 3: Global Economic Implications - A sustained drop in oil prices could lead to lower gasoline prices, alleviating global inflation pressures, which would be beneficial for central banks and consumers [6] - The potential for lower energy costs is seen as a policy victory for U.S. President Trump [6] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Geopolitical Factors - Despite clear signs of oversupply, market sentiment remains mixed, influenced by geopolitical risks and the potential for short-term disruptions in Russian exports due to sanctions [9] - Analysts suggest that the market's negative reaction may be overdone, as the fundamental outlook has not significantly changed [9]

Core Insights - The global crude oil market is experiencing an oversupply, particularly evident in the Americas, especially the United States [1][2] - The futures curve for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is in a "contango" structure for most of 2026, indicating weak spot demand as future contracts are priced higher than near-term contracts [1][2] - U.S. crude oil exports reached their highest level since July 2024 in October, further confirming the ample supply situation [1][2] - In contrast, the Brent crude oil futures curve has remained relatively flat since March, highlighting differing levels of oversupply in various regional markets [1][2]

Core Insights - The global oil market is experiencing an oversupply, particularly evident in the Americas, especially the United States [1] - The WTI crude oil futures curve for most of 2026 is in a "contango" structure, indicating weak spot demand for crude oil [1] - High U.S. crude oil export levels further signify ample supply, with October exports reaching the highest level since July 2024 [1] - In contrast, the Brent crude oil futures curve has remained relatively flat since March, highlighting differing levels of oversupply across regions [1]