Group 1: Fuel Oil Price Trends - The main futures contract for fuel oil closed at 3002 CNY/ton, a decrease of 361 CNY/ton (-10.73%) from the previous week's closing price [1] - Weekly positions recorded 255,160 contracts with a trading volume of 5.1111 million contracts [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The capacity utilization rate of main refineries for atmospheric distillation was 80.74%, up 0.91% week-on-week and 4.45% year-on-year [2] - Independent refineries' capacity utilization for atmospheric distillation was 57.24%, an increase of 0.23 percentage points from the previous week [2] - The transaction volume of low-sulfur residual oil/asphalt for refineries was 31,500 tons, down 6,250 tons (-66.49%) [2] - Inventory rates in Shandong for oil slurry, residual oil, and wax oil increased to 22.8%, 3.0%, and 4.0% respectively [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - Concerns over geopolitical tensions are affecting market sentiment, with potential conflicts in the Middle East impacting oil prices [3] - The market is expected to enter a phase dominated by fundamentals, with narrow fluctuations in fuel oil prices anticipated [3][4] - Short-term fuel oil prices are expected to remain under pressure due to a lack of market stimulus [4]

Core Insights - The recent volatility in international oil prices has led to significant fluctuations in the returns of oil QDII funds, prompting several funds to implement purchase restrictions and issue warnings about premium risks [1][2][3] Fund Performance and Restrictions - E Fund's oil LOF announced a suspension of subscription and redemption services effective July 1, following a previous suspension on June 19, due to the fund's net value closely tracking oil price fluctuations [1] - From June 9 to June 26, E Fund's oil LOF saw a cumulative increase of nearly 15% over two weeks, followed by a slight decline of 0.59% as of June 26, with a weekly drop of nearly 9% [1] - Other funds, such as Southern Oil LOF and Harvest Oil LOF, also suspended subscription and redemption services, with Southern Oil LOF issuing four premium risk warnings in June [2] Premium Risks and Market Dynamics - As of June 23, Harvest Oil LOF's premium rate reached 19%, while Southern Oil LOF's premium rate exceeded 8% [2] - The premium rates have since decreased, with Southern Oil LOF and Harvest Oil LOF reporting rates of 2.9% and 3.5% respectively as of June 26 [2] - The volatility in oil QDII fund returns has been significant, with E Fund's oil LOF down 12% year-to-date, while other funds like Huabao Oil and Southern Oil LOF have seen declines of 4.6% and 1.4% respectively [2] Oil Price Fluctuations - International oil prices experienced a "roller coaster" effect, with WTI crude oil futures peaking at over $78 per barrel on June 23 before falling to around $65 per barrel by June 26, marking a decline of over 15% [4] - Analysts suggest that while geopolitical tensions may support short-term oil prices, medium to long-term demand expectations are being revised downward, potentially putting pressure on the market [4] Supply and Demand Factors - Recent data indicates a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories, with a reported drop of 5.8 million barrels for the week ending June 21, significantly exceeding market expectations [5] - The overall global crude oil inventory is showing a declining trend, despite a slight increase in Asian inventories [5] - As the consumption peak season approaches, there is potential for a rebound in oil demand, which may provide some support for prices [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Cross - period: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - With the easing of the Middle East situation, the premium of crude oil has rapidly declined, and the energy sector has dropped significantly. The crude oil and fuel oil markets may re - enter the fundamental - driven stage [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: The monthly spread structure has weakened, reflecting sufficient supply in the spot market. Although there is support from the power generation demand in summer, the cracking spread needs to be further adjusted to attract incremental demand from refineries [1]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term supply pressure is limited, and downstream demand provides short - term support. However, in the medium - term, the market share will be gradually replaced, and domestic production is expected to increase [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures prices**: The night - session closing price of the main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures dropped 0.3% to 3011 yuan/ton, and that of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 0.49% to 3709 yuan/ton [1]. - **High - sulfur fuel oil**: The monthly spread structure has weakened recently, and the weak profit of downstream refineries restricts procurement demand. With the approaching of summer, the power generation demand in the Middle East and Egypt is increasing. In June, China's high - sulfur fuel oil arrivals may increase, and the consumption tax deduction ratio may be adjusted upwards, which may drive the refinery demand to recover from a low level [1]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Short - term supply pressure is limited, and the domestic production in May was at a low level. Singapore's marine fuel sales in May increased significantly. But in the medium - term, the carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry will replace its market share, and domestic production is expected to rise after the end of the refinery maintenance season [2]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Other strategies (cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, options): None [3]

液化石油气日报 | 2025-06-25 地缘局势缓和，盘面大幅回落 市场分析 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、港口装船延迟、炼厂装置检修超预期等。 1、\t6月24日地区价格：山东市场，4800—4830；东北市场，4150—4310；华北市场，4590—4700；华东市场， 4580—4750；沿江市场，4830—4960；西北市场，4300—4400；华南市场，4700—4798。数据来源：卓创资讯 2、\t2025年7月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷605美元/吨，跌40美元/吨，丁烷545美元/吨，跌23美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4773元/吨，跌319元/吨，丁烷4299元/吨，跌185元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年7月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷610美元/吨，跌38美元/吨，丁烷545美元/吨，跌23美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4812元/吨，跌304元/吨，丁烷4299元/吨，跌185元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 昨日伊朗和以色列双方均宣布正式停火，中东局势显著缓和，前期由于地缘冲突攀升的原油溢价也迅速回落，已 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Saudi Aramco's Arab Light crude oil sold to Northwest Europe in July was priced at a premium of $3.25 per barrel over the ICE Brent settlement price [1]