Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][2][3][4][5] Core Views Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract opened higher and then followed the coking coal futures to fluctuate lower. Spot prices gradually increased by 100 - 200 yuan per ton. Considering potential policies and production - cut plans, prices may rebound. It is advisable to buy slightly out - of - the - money call options. Also, pay attention to the impact of environmental inspections on production and control positions in the 09 contract [1] Polysilicon - Although polysilicon prices have risen, the current reality does not support a significant price increase. Attention should be paid to future production - cut plans to reach supply - demand balance. When volatility is low, consider buying straddles/put options and control positions in the 09 contract [2] Glass and Soda Ash - The soda ash market is in an obvious oversupply situation, and there is no growth expectation for demand. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and upstream factory load regulation. The glass market is in the off - season, with weak demand. The industry needs capacity clearance, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and control risks [4] Logs - The log futures market is affected by weak demand and fluctuates repeatedly. Last week, inventory decreased, but this week's expected increase in arrivals will still put pressure on the spot market. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and policy expectations [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis - On July 30, the prices of various types of industrial silicon increased, with the price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon rising to 10,000 yuan per ton, a 2.04% increase; the basis also increased, with the basis of oxygen - passing SI5530 increasing by 58.89% [1] Inter - monthly Spreads - The spreads between different contracts changed significantly. For example, the spread between 2508 - 2509 increased by 90.91% [1] Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10% to 30.08 tons. Production in Xinjiang decreased by 20.55%, while production in Yunnan and Sichuan increased by 9.35% and 145.65% respectively. Organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and recycled aluminum alloy production all increased [1] Inventory Changes - Xinjiang and Yunnan's inventories increased, while Sichuan's inventory decreased. Social inventory decreased by 2.19% to 53.50 tons, and warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.47% [1] Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 44,500 yuan per ton. The basis of N - type material decreased by 90.59% [2] Futures Prices and Inter - monthly Spreads - The main contract of polysilicon opened higher and fluctuated up, with some contracts hitting the daily limit. The spreads between different contracts changed significantly, such as the spread between "continuous one - continuous two" decreasing by 76.00% [2] Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Weekly polysilicon production increased by 10.87% to 2.55 tons. Monthly polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 10.10 tons, imports increased by 16.59%, and exports increased by 5.96% [2] Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory decreased by 2.41% to 24.30 tons, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 11.55% [2] Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 increased slightly, and the 05 basis decreased by 16.95% [4] Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of soda ash in various regions remained unchanged. The price of soda ash 2505 increased slightly, while the price of soda ash 2509 decreased slightly, and the 05 basis decreased by 10.64% [4] Production and Sales Volumes - Soda ash production decreased by 1.28% to 72.38 tons, the float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.76% to 15.90 tons, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 1.47% to 90,490 tons [4] Inventory - Glass factory inventory decreased by 4.70% to 6189.00 ten - thousand cases, soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.15% to 186.46 tons, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 21.86% to 30.05 tons [4] Real Estate Data - New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50% [4] Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures fluctuated. The price of the 2509 contract decreased by 0.60% to 825 yuan per cubic meter. The spot prices of main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged [5] Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged, and the import theoretical cost remained unchanged [5] Supply (Monthly) - Port shipments increased by 2.12% to 176.0 ten - thousand cubic meters, and the number of departing ships decreased by 8.62% [5] Inventory (Weekly) - National log inventory decreased by 3.65% to 317.00 ten - thousand cubic meters [5] Demand (Weekly) - The average daily log出库 volume increased by 3% to 6.41 ten - thousand cubic meters [5]

Core Viewpoint - Beijing Urban Construction Investment Development Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Urban Development") is undergoing significant management changes, with Qi Zhanfeng appointed as the new chairman amid fluctuating financial performance, including a projected loss of 951 million yuan in 2024 followed by an expected profit of over 400 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [1][10]. Management Changes - Qi Zhanfeng, previously the chief accountant of Beijing Urban Construction Group, has been elected as the chairman of Urban Development, marking a shift in leadership dynamics [4][8]. - The new management team consists of Qi Zhanfeng and Zou Zhe, who serves as both the party secretary and general manager, indicating a strategic focus on financial and operational management [2][8]. Financial Performance - Urban Development reported a revenue of approximately 25.442 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.94%, but faced a net loss of about 951 million yuan, a decline of 270.17% compared to the previous year [10]. - The company anticipates a turnaround in 2025, projecting a net profit of between 440 million yuan and 654 million yuan for the first half of the year, driven by the delivery of real estate projects and gains from financial assets [10]. Challenges and Strategies - Despite the anticipated profit in 2025, Urban Development has faced ongoing challenges with profitability stability, as evidenced by fluctuating performance over recent years [11]. - The gross profit margins for real estate development, leasing, and property management have declined, with the real estate development margin at 14.1% [11]. - The new leadership is tasked with stabilizing profits, reducing inventory, and enhancing operational efficiency, particularly in the context of high inventory levels and declining profit margins [11][14]. Industry Context - The real estate sector is undergoing significant adjustments, and the new management's ability to navigate these challenges will be critical for Urban Development's future performance [2][12]. - The emphasis on financial management and risk control under Qi Zhanfeng's leadership is expected to play a crucial role in maintaining cash flow and ensuring the company's safe development amidst industry pressures [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: Macroeconomic sentiment affects commodities, supply - side disturbances are gradually intensifying, and the market is generally strong. - Medium - to long - term: As lithium salt prices gradually rise, corporate profits will increase, and the operating rate is expected to gradually rise in the future. - The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two phases: In the early third quarter, improved macro sentiment, supply disturbances, and the phenomenon of a non - typical off - season will cause futures prices to fluctuate upward; in the fourth quarter, after technological upgrades are completed and production capacity is released, futures prices will fluctuate downward. [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - This week, lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upward. The closing price of the weighted index contract on Friday was 79,578 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 14.66%. The trading volume was 2.39 million lots, a week - on - week increase of 62.6%. The open interest was 908,100 lots, a week - on - week increase of 247,400 lots. The spread between the LC2509 - LC2511 contracts maintained a back structure. The number of warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 11,996 lots, a week - on - week increase of 1,757 lots. [1] 3.1.2 Industry Performance - Supply: This week, the price increase of the mining end intensified, with an average increase of over 19%. The SMM Australian ore 6% CIF was quoted at $860/ton, and African ore was quoted at $801/ton, with an overall increase of over 17%. The price increase in the lithium salt market was smaller than that at the mining end, with lithium carbonate prices rising by about 9% and lithium hydroxide by about 5%. The basis quotes in the trader segment continued to weaken. The weekly operating rate of sample lithium salt factories decreased by 1.96% week - on - week, and lithium carbonate production decreased by 2.54% week - on - week. - Demand: This week, the quotes of downstream material factories were differentiated, with price increases lower than those of lithium salts and lithium ores. The quotes of the lithium iron phosphate system increased by about 4%, and those of the ternary material system increased by about 2%. The quotes of the electrolyte end were stable. The operating rate of lithium iron phosphate remained flat week - on - week, with a slight decrease in production; the production of ternary materials increased week - on - week; the production of lithium manganate decreased slightly, and the production of lithium cobaltate enterprises remained flat week - on - week. - Terminal: The quotes in the battery cell market were stable. This week, battery cell production remained stable. - Inventory: This week, domestic lithium ore inventories decreased week - on - week, lithium carbonate inventories increased by 0.39% week - on - week, the inventories of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased week - on - week, and the inventories of lithium manganate and lithium cobaltate increased week - on - week. [2] 3.1.3 Core Logic - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are all under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is progressing slowly. The medium - to long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated. - There are two short - term logics in the current market: In the price decline cycle, the clearing pressure caused by the overcapacity of lithium salts is transmitted upstream to the mining end, and the loosening of ore prices in turn exacerbates the downward inertia of lithium salt prices, forming a negative feedback loop risk of "lithium salt decline - ore price loosening - further lithium salt decline". When the futures rebound is driven by macro expectations and supply - side disturbances, it creates a certain hedging window for lithium salt enterprises, stimulates the release of production enthusiasm, drives the consumption of lithium ore, and promotes the rise of lithium ore prices, forming a step - by - step upward chain of "futures rise - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price follow - up". As lithium salt prices rise, corporate profits gradually increase, the operating rate will gradually increase in the future, and finally return to the fundamental situation of demand - based pricing. - Enterprises are continuously optimizing the production process through production line technological upgrades, driving the continuous decline of production costs. The steep cost curve formed by cost differences in the past is gradually flattening. This "collapse - style" cost reduction not only weakens the support of traditional high costs for prices but also becomes the core force driving the decline of lithium carbonate prices. [2][4] 3.1.4 Nanhua's Viewpoint - Short - term: Macroeconomic sentiment affects commodities, supply - side disturbances are gradually intensifying, and the market is generally strong. - Medium - to long - term: As lithium salt prices gradually rise, corporate profits will increase, and the operating rate is expected to gradually rise in the future. [4] 3.1.5 Strategy Recommendations - Enterprises should seize the window period for planned production; speculative investors are advised to adopt a strategy of short - term long and long - term short. [4] 3.1.6 Bullish Interpretations - As lithium ore and lithium salt prices continue to decline, the probability of supply - side disturbances gradually increases. - The current situation of high open interest and low warehouse receipts is being traded in the market. - The production scheduling on the demand side has increased more than expected. [4] 3.1.7 Bearish Interpretations - The future production capacity of lithium ore is still expected to be large, and high inventories are suppressing ore prices. If ore prices further loosen, it will drag down the cost of lithium carbonate. - Both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories are high and still in an inventory accumulation trend. - Industrial technology upgrades and iterations have led to a decrease in the costs of some high - cost technology routes, delaying the capacity clearing. [4] 3.2 Price and Spread - The report provides detailed weekly price data for the lithium - battery industry chain, including futures, lithium ore, lithium salts, downstream materials, and terminal products, showing price changes, week - on - week changes, etc. For example, the closing price of the lithium carbonate weighted index contract was 79,578 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 10,175 yuan and a week - on - week increase of 14.66%. [5] 3.3 Lithium Ore 3.3.1 Import - The report presents the seasonal chart of the total monthly import volume of lithium concentrate and the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate by country (Australia, Brazil, Zimbabwe, Rwanda). [11] 3.3.2 Production - It shows the seasonal charts of the production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and sample lithium mica mines in terms of lithium carbonate equivalent. [13] 3.3.3 Inventory - The report provides the inventory data of Chinese lithium ore (including total inventory, warehouse inventory, and trader's spot inventory at major ports) and the seasonal chart of the monthly inventory of lithium ore samples in lithium salt factories in terms of LCE equivalent. [15] 3.4 Supply 3.4.1 Operating Rate - The operating rate of sample lithium carbonate enterprises decreased by 1.96% week - on - week to 48.6%. Among them, the operating rate of lithium spodumene enterprises decreased by 0.64% to 52.61%, the operating rate of lithium mica enterprises increased by 2.97% to 58.18%, the operating rate of salt lake enterprises decreased by 13.25% to 56.22%, and the operating rate of recycling material enterprises decreased by 0.34% to 20.5%. [23] 3.4.2 Production - The weekly production of sample lithium carbonate enterprises decreased by 2.54% week - on - week to 18,630 tons. Among them, the production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene decreased by 0.64% to 9,264 tons, the production of lithium carbonate from lithium mica increased by 0.3% to 5,115 tons, the production of lithium carbonate from salt lake materials decreased by 13.25% to 2,847 tons, and the production of lithium carbonate from recycling materials decreased by 0.4% to 1,404 tons. [31] 3.4.3 Import - The report shows the seasonal charts of the total monthly import volume of lithium carbonate (cumulative value since the beginning of the year and monthly value) and the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate by country (Chile and Argentina). [32][34] 3.4.4 Inventory - The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 0.39% week - on - week to 143,170 tons. Among them, smelter inventories decreased by 4.57% to 55,385 tons, downstream inventories increased by 3.74% to 42,815 tons, and other inventories increased by 3.83% to 44,970 tons. [38] 3.4.5 Profit - The report provides charts of the production profit of purchasing lithium ore externally (including the profit of the sulfate method and the sulfuric acid method for lithium carbonate), the import profit of lithium carbonate, and the theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate. [39][42] 3.5 Demand 3.5.1 Operating Rate - The report shows the seasonal charts of the operating rates of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium manganate, lithium cobaltate, and electrolyte. [44][46] 3.5.2 Production - It presents the seasonal charts of the total production of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium manganate, lithium cobaltate, and electrolyte. [48][51] 3.5.3 Inventory - The report provides the seasonal charts of the total inventories of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate industries. [53][55] 3.5.4 Profit - It shows the profit charts of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate, as well as the theoretical cost chart of lithium iron phosphate electrolyte. [57][58] 3.6 Terminal Battery Cells 3.6.1 Production - The report shows the production data of SMM lithium batteries (total production, monthly production of lithium iron phosphate batteries, production of SMM ternary batteries, and production of other types of batteries), the monthly production data of SMM power battery cells (total, ternary, lithium iron phosphate, and other types), the seasonal chart of the monthly production of SMM power battery cells (total), and the seasonal chart of the monthly production of Chinese energy - storage battery cells. [60] 3.6.2 Installation Volume - It presents the seasonal charts of the total installation volume of Chinese lithium batteries, the installation volume of LFP batteries, and the installation volume of NCM batteries. [63][64] 3.6.3 Battery Cell Inventory - The report provides the inventory data of Chinese lithium batteries (including lithium iron phosphate batteries, ternary batteries, energy - storage batteries, and power batteries), the seasonal chart of the monthly inventory of Chinese power battery cells (lithium iron phosphate), and the seasonal chart of the monthly inventory of SMM Chinese power battery cells (ternary). [66][68]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese smartphone market experienced a year-on-year decline of 2.4% in Q2 2025, influenced by seasonal factors and demand front-loading due to subsidies [2][3]. Market Performance - Huawei maintained its leading position with a market share increase from 15% to 18.1% year-on-year, driven by strong sales of the mid-range nova 14 series and significant price reductions on high-end models [2]. - Vivo ranked second in shipments, supported by its strong offline channel network and the successful performance of its Y series in lower-tier cities [6]. - OPPO's Reno 14 series launched before the 618 shopping festival, continuing the strong sales momentum from the previous series, appealing particularly to young female consumers [6]. - Xiaomi achieved a market share of 15.7%, with growth driven by price reductions on popular models like Redmi K80 and Xiaomi 15, despite not launching new mid-range products during the promotional period [6]. - Apple saw strong performance from the iPhone 16 series, particularly the Pro models, due to unprecedented price cuts, although this may pressure sales of the iPhone 17 in the latter half of the year [7]. Future Outlook - The demand for smartphones in China is expected to remain weak, consistent with previous forecasts, but sales stability is supported by promotions and subsidies [8]. - Counterpoint anticipates a slowdown in growth for the Chinese market in 2025, with summer promotions and early flagship releases in Q3 expected to boost sales and lay a solid foundation for Q4 performance [8]. - The company will continue to monitor the evolving global market landscape, particularly regarding tariff policies, rising component costs, and changes in consumer demand [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Shangshi Development is significantly reducing its project inventory in Quanzhou through the sale of residential properties and related assets, expecting to achieve revenue of 1.883 billion yuan and a net profit of 163 million yuan [1][2] - The transaction involves the sale of residential units and parking spaces from the Shangshi Haishang project in Quanzhou to Quanzhou Kaiyuan Real Estate Group for a total of 2.053 billion yuan, with a notable premium of 59.97% over the book value [1][2] - The project has contributed significantly to the company's performance over the years, with a cumulative signed area of approximately 450,000 square meters and a total signed amount of about 5.8 billion yuan, although inventory reduction has slowed due to market conditions [2] Group 2 - The financial implications of the transaction are substantial, as it is expected to account for approximately 75.51% of the company's revenue for 2024, while also helping to improve cash flow and meet operational funding needs [2] - The company aims to focus its development strategy on Shanghai and the Yangtze River Delta region, aligning with the interests of all shareholders [2] - Recent policies from central and regulatory authorities aimed at revitalizing idle land and properties are expected to accelerate the local land market's inventory reduction, improving market supply-demand dynamics and corporate financial conditions [3]

Performance Forecast - The company expects a net loss attributable to shareholders of between 25 million and 30 million yuan, compared to a loss of 22.34 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 30 million and 35 million yuan, compared to a loss of 27.35 million yuan in the previous year [1] - Basic earnings per share are estimated to be between -0.0407 yuan and -0.0488 yuan, compared to -0.0364 yuan per share last year [1] Reasons for Performance Changes - Sales revenue increased year-on-year, driven by the successful launch of the Le You series and Xiang Liang You series, which showed excellent performance in yield and disease resistance, leading to higher average prices [1] - Corn seed sales revenue declined due to oversupply in the domestic corn seed market, increased inventory pressure, and intensified market competition [1] - The market performance of the transgenic variety Tie 391K was below expectations, resulting in increased return volumes [1] - The company reduced sales of low-margin products and decreased production of raw materials and intermediates to improve safety and environmental standards, impacting sales revenue [1] - Overall market conditions for raw materials declined, leading to price decreases for some products year-on-year [1] - Increased depreciation from construction projects being put into use and higher environmental expenditures also contributed to the performance changes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appointment of Qi Zhanfeng as the chairman of Beijing Urban Construction Development marks a significant leadership change in a major state-owned enterprise in Beijing, indicating a focus on cash flow and profit contributions in the future [2][4][18]. Group 1: Leadership Change - Qi Zhanfeng has been appointed as the chairman of Beijing Urban Construction Development, succeeding Chu Zhaowu, who retired recently [2][3]. - Qi Zhanfeng has a strong background in finance, having held various financial roles in state-owned enterprises in Beijing, which suggests a strategic emphasis on financial management in his new role [4][6]. - The leadership team will consist of Qi Zhanfeng as chairman and Zou Zhe as general manager, indicating a stable yet dynamic management structure [9]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Beijing Urban Construction Development reported a projected net profit of approximately 439 million to 654 million yuan for the first half of the year, a significant turnaround from a loss of 138 million yuan in the same period last year [4][13]. - The profit increase is attributed to the successful sales and delivery of key projects, such as Tiantanfu and Longyue Tianyuan, as well as gains from financial asset investments [14][15]. Group 3: Strategic Focus - The company is prioritizing three key areas: inventory reduction, profit and cash flow management, and the expansion of quality projects [10][18]. - The company has a substantial inventory pressure outside Beijing, with significant unsold areas in locations like Anhui Huangshan and Chongqing [12]. - In 2024, the company secured eight new projects, indicating a cautious yet strategic approach to project acquisition [17][19]. Group 4: Market Position - Beijing Urban Construction Development ranked fifth in total sales in Beijing for the first half of the year, solidifying its position as a leading local real estate company [10]. - The company is actively expanding beyond its traditional market, having successfully entered the Shanghai market with multiple projects [19][21].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is showing signs of stabilization and recovery in the first half of 2025, driven by government efforts to halt the decline and promote a healthy market environment [1][3][9]. Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, with a significant narrowing of the decline by 15.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1][4]. - The sales revenue of new commercial housing fell by 5.5% year-on-year, also showing a substantial narrowing of the decline by 19.5 percentage points compared to last year [1][4]. - The transaction volume of second-hand housing has increased compared to the same period last year, indicating active trading [1]. Price Trends - In June 2025, the sales prices of new residential properties in first-tier cities experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.3%, with the decline rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [7]. - The average sales price of second-hand residential properties in first-tier cities fell by 0.7% month-on-month in June, consistent with the previous month [14]. Market Dynamics - The new housing market is gradually stabilizing, with first-tier cities showing strong performance in new home transactions, such as Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou, which saw year-on-year increases of 11.9%, 42%, and nearly 17% respectively [5]. - The average sales area of new commercial housing in June was 10,536 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 49.38% [6]. - The inventory reduction efforts have been effective, with the unsold housing area decreasing by 479 million square meters by the end of June, marking four consecutive months of decline [6]. Policy Support - The government is expected to intensify efforts to stabilize the real estate market, with recent meetings emphasizing the need for stronger measures [9][11]. - Core cities have begun optimizing real estate policies, such as improving housing fund loan policies to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers [10]. Second-hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a rise in transaction volume, but prices are under pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 3.0% in first-tier cities from June last year [16][20]. - The increase in second-hand housing transactions is attributed to rising demand for housing upgrades and the need to sell existing homes [18][21]. - The overall transaction market for second-hand housing remains broad, with many provinces seeing transaction volumes surpassing those of new homes [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - **Stainless Steel**: Policy to address "involution - style" competition and eliminate backward production capacity stabilizes the market, and a slight reduction in July's steel mill production schedule also helps. However, high inventory and capacity pressure remain. With weak downstream consumption and high - cost dynamic decline, it will follow a weak fundamental pattern after short - term macro - driven sentiment fades, with an operating range of 12,000 - 13,000 yuan [2]. - **Nickel**: At a low valuation, short - term industry policies support a bottom - stabilizing. Short - term focuses are on Indonesian mining policy changes and the US employment market. In the long run, the contradiction between profit contraction and capacity expansion will lead to large inventory de - stocking and capacity optimization pressure. The short - term price will run in the weak range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pure Nickel & Stainless Steel - **Basis**: The fluctuation amplitude weakens, and the spot - futures price difference narrows. Stainless steel prices are flat compared to last week, with futures at a 50 - yuan discount. Refined nickel prices dropped by 1,000 yuan, and futures are at par [7][9]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the entire industrial chain is at a historical high. The nickel ore end has moderate inventory, while downstream nickel - iron, stainless steel, and refined nickel inventories are all high. The social total inventory of stainless steel is 1.1675 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.93% [10][11]. - **Production Profit**: Although prices are low and production profits are shrinking, some steel mills' processes still have profits [14]. - **Output and Export**: In June, production decreased but remained at a high historical level, and external demand was strong. Refined nickel's domestic exchange inventory has been transferred overseas, and the proportion of LME nickel from Chinese brands is increasing. Stainless steel warehouse receipts are decreasing due to weak spot markets [17][19]. - **Domestic and Overseas Inventory**: Refined nickel's domestic exchange inventory is transferred overseas, and the proportion of LME nickel from Chinese brands is expanding. Stainless steel warehouse receipts are decreasing due to weak spot markets [19]. 3.2 Nickel - Iron - **Price**: The price of high - nickel iron in the market is 905 - 915 yuan/nickel, a 5 - yuan decrease from last week. The nickel ore price at the mining end is firm, and the cost of Indonesian nickel ore has weakened [27]. - **Production Profit**: Overseas imported nickel - iron profits remain high, while domestic nickel - iron steel mills face pressure from upstream and downstream, with immediate profits showing full - scale losses. Indonesian nickel - iron profits have also decreased. From January to May 2025, China's nickel - iron import volume was 4.516 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.882 million tons or 24.3% [30]. - **Output and Import - Export**: In 2025, the import volume of nickel - iron remains high. From January to May, the total import volume was 4.516 million tons, with 4.404 million tons from Indonesia, a year - on - year increase of 25.6% [32]. 3.3 Nickel Intermediates - **Price**: The total inventory of chromium ore at national ports is 2.994 million tons. South African chromium ore inventory accounts for 85% of the total, a 1% increase from last week [36]. - **Production Profit**: The cost of producing nickel sulfate from nickel hydroxide has increased, and the immediate profit loss has intensified. The cost of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans has also increased, and the production immediate profit loss has intensified [39]. - **Output**: The production of nickel sulfate from Indonesian MHP and high - ice nickel has increased [41][43]. - **Import Volume**: The import volume data of nickel ore, nickel sulfate, MHP, and high - ice nickel are presented in the report [47][49]. 3.4 Supply and Consumption of Nickel - **Supply**: The total supply of primary nickel in 2024 was 2.464 million tons, with a monthly value of 206,800 tons in a certain month. The total supply of stainless steel from China and Indonesia in 2024 was 4.581 million tons [52]. - **Consumption**: The consumption of primary nickel in China in 2024 was 2.5524 million tons [52].

机构：中金公司 研究员：陈文博/王文丹/方云朋 预告1H25 盈利同比下降36-47% 启动不少于10 亿元股份回购，全年派息额不低于20 亿元。公司拟启动不低于10 亿元的股份回购用于潜 在员工激励计划，公告25 年派息不低于20亿人民币，相当于25 年我们利润预期的60%以上，彰显公司 对于提升股东回报的决心。考虑公司覆盖全生命周期营养产品的长期布局，未来公司有望在功能营养事 业及儿青事业获取更多增量。同时我们认为去库存利好公司渠道稳健稳定发展，短期虽有影响，但长期 利好公司竞争力进一步夯实。 盈利预测与估值 由于公司去库存调整及大包粉减值，我们下调25/26 年盈利预测26%/16%至28.7/36.6 亿元，当前交易在 13/10 倍25/26 年P/E；下调目标价27%至6 港币，对应18/14 倍25/26 年P/E和31%上行空间，维持跑赢行 业评级。 飞鹤发布盈利预警公告：预计1H25 收入91-93 亿元，同比下降7.9-9.9%，预计1H25 净利润10-12 亿元， 同比下滑36-47%，低于市场预期，主因去库存调整及大包粉减值。 关注要点 去库存及奶粉补贴多重影响致收入低于市场预期，利 ...