Core Viewpoint - The company, 小菜园, has released a positive profit forecast for 1H25, expecting a net profit of 360-380 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 29%-36% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of approximately 20%-27% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a significant improvement in net profit for 1H25 due to enhanced operational efficiency and refined management practices [1] - The expected same-store sales growth may face challenges due to a high base from the previous year, but revenue is projected to maintain a mid-to-high single-digit year-on-year growth thanks to store expansion [1] - The company’s strong operational efficiency is expected to help absorb same-store sales pressure, showcasing resilience in net profit [1] Group 2: Operational Strategies - The company is optimizing operational efficiency through various measures, including enhancing single-store productivity and space efficiency [1] - The average store size has been reduced from approximately 300 square meters to 240-250 square meters, leading to a decrease in capital expenditure per store from 1.7 million yuan to 1.2-1.3 million yuan, shortening the investment payback period to about 10-12 months [1] - The company’s high proportion of takeaway sales and potential optimization in platform commission rates are expected to support profitability [1] Group 3: Expansion Plans - Starting from 2H25, the company plans to enhance its marketing efforts through advertisements on high-speed trains and radio, aiming to strengthen brand image and expand influence [2] - The company has set ambitious new store opening plans, with 13 and 20 new stores expected to open in July and August respectively, contributing to a total of 705 stores by August 1, 2025 [2] - The company aims to complete a total of 120 new store openings for the year, maintaining its current pace of expansion [2] Group 4: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company has slightly adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 down by 5%, 4%, and 2% to 6.035 billion, 7.318 billion, and 8.886 billion yuan respectively, due to a proactive reduction in customer spending [2] - However, the earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 have been raised by 9%, 13%, and 18% to 0.63, 0.77, and 0.93 yuan respectively, reflecting improved single-store profitability [2] - The target price for the company is set at 13.15 HKD, based on a 19x price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025, indicating a premium valuation due to resilient earnings and brand strength [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its performance and growth potential [5]. Core Views - The company is experiencing significant growth, with a projected revenue increase from 3,180 million in 2023 to 43,114 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 145.7% to 20.4% over the forecast period [7]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to rise from 416 million in 2023 to 7,725 million by 2027, showcasing a robust growth trajectory with a peak growth rate of 340.4% in 2023 [7]. - The company is expanding its brand influence and retail presence, with a focus on high-end markets both domestically and internationally, including a successful store opening in Singapore [5][6]. - The report highlights the company's strategic initiatives in product innovation and brand building, which are expected to enhance customer engagement and market penetration [5]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 3,180 million in 2023, 8,506 million in 2024, 26,176 million in 2025, 35,822 million in 2026, and 43,114 million in 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 145.7%, 167.5%, 207.8%, 36.8%, and 20.4% [7]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to grow from 416 million in 2023 to 7,725 million in 2027, with growth rates of 340.4%, 253.9%, 227.1%, 35.2%, and 18.6% respectively [7]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 3.05 in 2023 to 44.74 in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [7]. Market Expansion - The company has opened 41 stores as of July 27, 2025, with a focus on high-end shopping districts in major cities and international markets [6]. - The Singapore store has shown strong performance, with expectations for sales growth driven by increased foot traffic and a dedicated membership system [5]. - The report emphasizes the company's commitment to enhancing its brand presence and customer experience through strategic store placements and product offerings [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see continued profit growth in Q2 2025, driven by positive business performance and the upcoming launch of Yu7 in July 2025, which serves as a catalyst for growth [1]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's non-GAAP net profit reached 10.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 64.5%, exceeding expectations due to better-than-expected gross margins in IoT and automotive sectors [1]. - The core business profit was 11.2 billion, while the automotive and new business incurred a loss of 0.5 billion [1]. - The company sold 41.8 million smartphones, a 2% quarter-on-quarter decline, primarily due to weak demand in overseas markets like India [1]. Revenue Breakdown - The average selling price (ASP) increased by 6% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter, benefiting from improved product mix [2]. - Smartphone gross margin decreased by 2.4 percentage points to 12.4% year-on-year due to rising costs of core components, but improved by 0.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter due to better product mix in overseas markets [2]. - IoT revenue reached 32.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 59% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5%, driven by government subsidies and enhanced brand strength [2]. - The gross margin for IoT improved by 5.3 percentage points to 25.2% due to higher margins in major appliances and product mix improvements [2]. - Internet revenue was 9.1 billion, showing a quarter-on-quarter decline of 3%, with a gross margin of 76.9% [2]. - Automotive sales reached 76,000 units, with an ASP of 238,000, slightly up from 234,000 in Q4 2024, primarily driven by the SU7 ultra model [2]. - The automotive gross margin improved by 3 percentage points to 23% due to changes in product mix [2]. Future Outlook - The company is focusing on high-quality products in its smartphone business, with expectations for further ASP increases [2]. - IoT business revenue growth is anticipated to reach 30% in 2025, supported by enhanced brand strength and optimized product mix [2]. - The company expects to exceed 350,000 units in automotive deliveries for the year, with improved gross margins [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company's performance in Q1 2025 shows resilience with a revenue increase of 25% and a profit increase of 44%, despite a challenging 2024 impacted by asset impairment [1][3] - The revenue structure indicates a shift towards traditional gold, while fashion jewelry and leather goods face pressure; however, the franchise business is experiencing significant growth [1][2] - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with revenue forecasts of 81 billion, 92 billion, and 103 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 24%, 14%, and 11% [3][4] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 6.52 billion (up 10.5% year-on-year) and a net profit of 194 million (down 42% year-on-year) due to impairment losses [1][4] - For Q4 2024, the revenue was 1.66 billion (up 18.4% year-on-year), but the net profit turned negative at -120 million, primarily due to a 210 million asset impairment loss [1] Store Expansion and Market Position - The company expanded its store count by 129 in 2024, reaching a total of 1,505 stores, with a notable increase in franchise stores [2] - The average GMV for franchise stores showed double-digit growth, indicating strong confidence among franchisees in the brand [2] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 4.8 billion, 5.6 billion, and 6.4 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 148%, 17%, and 15% [3][4] - The expected P/E ratios for the next three years are 17.5, 15.0, and 13.1 [3][4] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 23.6%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 3.0% [10] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 22.9%, down 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, but the net profit margin increased to 8.4% [10]