手机方面 通过提升ASP和产品结构高端化抵御存储涨价冲击。25Q3出货量43.3百万部，ASP￥1,063元，毛利率 11.1%，符合预期，管理层指引25年出货量目标1.7亿部。 IoT方面 智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，维持小米集团-W(01810)"买入"评级，25Q3业绩略超预期， 和以前的存储周期相比，具备比竞争对手更强的韧性，主因高端化战略初见成效，人车家全生态形成的 业务结构更为均衡，产品结构高端化潜力尚未充分释放，后续催化上行因素带来叙事反转。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 业绩简报 小米集团25Q3业绩略超预期。营业收入1131亿元(预期1125亿)，YoY+22%/QoQ2%，主因互联网服务和 电动汽车业务收入超预期。经调整净利润113亿(预期100亿)，YoY+81%/QoQ+4%。公司已连续三季站稳 千亿营收、22%毛利率、百亿利润水平线。 互联网服务与EV 互联网方面25Q3收入94亿元，YoY+11%;毛利率76.9%。广告收入72亿(YoY+17%)，境外收入33亿元 (YoY+19%，占比34.9%)，均创历史新高；EV方面本季实现盈利，上调25年交付目标至40万辆。25Q3 ...

上 市 公 司 有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 12 月 16 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 40.90 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8757.93 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 61.45/29.60 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 10,652.53 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 26,045.30 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.9078 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -4% 46% 96% 146% HSCEI 小米集团-W 资料来源：Bloomberg 2025 年 12 月 16 日 小米集团-W (01810) 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 ——不同以往，高端化战略与人车家全生态赋予更强韧题 投资要点： 相关研究 证券分析师 杨海晏 A0230518070003 yanghy@swsresearch.com 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 陈俊兆 A0230124100001 chenjz@swsresearch.com 联系人 财务数据及盈利预测 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi reported Q3 2025 performance with total revenue of 113.1 billion yuan (+0.5% vs consensus), year-on-year growth of 22%; adjusted net profit reached 11.3 billion yuan (+12.6% vs consensus of 10 billion yuan), year-on-year growth of 81%, corresponding to a net profit margin of 10.0% [1] Group 1: Smartphone Business - Smartphone shipments in Q3 were 43.3 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, with a market share of 13.6%; market share in China was 16.7% [2] - Average Selling Price (ASP) was 1,062 yuan, down 4% year-on-year; smartphone revenue was 46 billion yuan (+0.3% vs consensus), year-on-year decline of 3.1% [2] - The increase in storage prices has led to a decline in gross margin, with Q3 smartphone gross margin at 11.1%; Q4 smartphone gross margin is expected to be 10% [2] Group 2: IoT and Internet Business - In Q3, IoT revenue was 27.6 billion yuan (-1.9% vs consensus), year-on-year growth of 5.5%; gross margin improved by 1.4 percentage points to 23.9% [3] - Major appliances faced pressure with a year-on-year revenue decline of 15% due to competition and subsidy reductions; attention is advised on overseas expansion and market share changes [3] - Internet business revenue for Q3 was 9.4 billion yuan (+2.2% vs consensus), year-on-year growth of 10.8% [3] Group 3: Automotive Business - The automotive segment achieved profitability for the first time, with Q3 deliveries of 108,800 units and an ASP of 260,000 yuan; gross margin decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 25.5% [3] - November deliveries exceeded 48,000 units, with expectations of nearing full production by year-end; total annual deliveries are projected to exceed 400,000 units [3] - Q3 automotive revenue was 29 billion yuan, with other related businesses contributing 700 million yuan [3] Group 4: Financial Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for Xiaomi Group in 2025 and 2026 are 471.7 billion yuan and 545 billion yuan (year-on-year growth of 29% and 16% respectively); adjusted net profits are forecasted at 43.3 billion yuan and 44.9 billion yuan (year-on-year growth of 59% and 4%) [3] - The company is assigned a 20x PE for its main business in 2026 and a 2.5x PS for the automotive segment, with a target price of 51.1 HKD and a "buy" rating [3]

Core Insights - The company is engaged in providing services to overseas clients, including IoT, automotive-grade, and high-end PMIC products, along with customized packaging and testing services based on client needs [1] Group 1 - The company has recently mentioned verification activities related to major clients in Taiwan and Europe and the U.S. [1] - The inquiry from investors specifically asked if the verification business is related to artificial intelligence [1] - The company confirmed that its product offerings include IoT and automotive-grade products, indicating a diverse portfolio [1]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi's Q3 2025 performance shows a total revenue increase of 22% year-on-year to 113.1 billion RMB, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations, with adjusted net profit rising 80.9% year-on-year [1] Smartphone / IoT / Internet Business - Smartphone shipments reached 43.3 million units (+0.5% year-on-year), maintaining a global market share of 13.6% [2] - IoT business revenue increased by 5.6% year-on-year to 27.6 billion RMB, with a gross margin improvement of 1.4 percentage points to 23.9% [2] - Internet business revenue grew by 10.8% year-on-year to 9.4 billion RMB, maintaining a high gross margin of 76.9% [2] - The impact of storage price increases is expected to affect smartphone shipment volumes, product prices, and gross margins in the future [2] Automotive Business - The automotive business achieved a record delivery of 109,000 units in Q3 2025, with a revenue increase of 37% quarter-on-quarter to 25.9 billion RMB and a gross margin improvement of 8.4 percentage points to 25.5% [2] - The automotive segment is expected to continue its profitability trajectory, with a maintained forecast of 700,000 units for 2026 [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards by 0.3%/2.3%/1.9%, and Non-GAAP net profit forecasts have been reduced by 1.6%/7.6%/4.3% to 43.4 billion RMB, 48.2 billion RMB, and 62.4 billion RMB respectively [2] - The target price has been revised down to 53.8 HKD (previously 65.4 HKD), based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, corresponding to a 27 times PE for 2026 [2]

Core Insights - The company reported a 3Q25 adjusted net profit of 11.31 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 7.1%, driven by better-than-expected gross margins in IoT, internet services, and automotive sectors [1][2] Revenue and Profitability - 3Q25 revenue reached 113.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, slightly above the forecast by 0.7% [1] - The adjusted net profit for 3Q25 was 11.31 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 80.9% [1] - IoT revenue grew by 5.6% to 27.6 billion yuan, with notable growth in wearable and lifestyle products [2] - Internet business revenue increased by 11% to 9.4 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 76.9% [2] Smartphone and Market Performance - Global smartphone shipments in 3Q25 totaled 43.25 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [1] - The company's global smartphone market share rose to 13.6%, with increases in various regions including Latin America and Southeast Asia [1] - The average selling price (ASP) for smartphones decreased by 3.6% to 1,063 yuan, primarily due to lower ASPs overseas, although ASP in mainland China increased due to a shift towards high-end models [1] Automotive Sector - The company delivered 109,000 vehicles in 3Q25, achieving an ASP of 260,000 yuan, driven by increased deliveries of the SU7 Ultra and YU7 models [2] - The automotive and innovation business segment achieved a gross margin of 25.5% and recorded a quarterly operating profit of 700 million yuan for the first time [2] - The outlook for 2026 is positive, with expectations for continued growth in vehicle deliveries and profit acceleration [2] Adjustments and Valuation - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 down by 7.5% and 9.8% to 40.49 billion yuan and 57.77 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 24x for 2025 and 17x for 2026, with a target price adjustment down by 10.9% to 53 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 30% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance in Q3 2025, with significant growth in revenue and net profit, driven by innovative business segments like smart cars and AI [4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached 113.1 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 22.3% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 2.4% [4]. - Non-IFRS net profit for Q3 2025 was 11.3 billion yuan, up 80.9% year-over-year and 4.4% quarter-over-quarter, with a corresponding net profit margin of 10% [4]. Group 2: Smartphone Business - Revenue from smartphone sales in Q3 2025 was 46 billion yuan, down 3.1% year-over-year but up 1% quarter-over-quarter [5]. - The company shipped 43.3 million smartphones, achieving a slight year-over-year increase of 0.5%, maintaining a top-three global market share for 21 consecutive quarters [5]. - The average selling price (ASP) of smartphones decreased to 1,062.8 yuan, down 3.6% year-over-year and 1% quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to declining ASP in overseas markets [5]. - Smartphone gross margin was 11.1%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-over-year and 0.4 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, impacted by rising core component prices and intensified competition in mainland China [5]. Group 3: IoT Business - IoT revenue for Q3 2025 was 27.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5.6% but a significant quarter-over-quarter decline of 28.8% [6]. - The gross margin for IoT improved to 23.9%, up 3.1 percentage points year-over-year and 1.4 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, driven by higher sales of high-margin products [6]. - The company faces challenges in the IoT segment due to seasonal fluctuations and increased competition, with future strategies focusing on international expansion and product positioning [6]. Group 4: Internet Advertising - Internet revenue reached 9.4 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-over-year increase of 10.8% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 3.1%, marking a historical high [7]. - The number of global monthly active users reached 742 million, up 8.2% year-over-year [7]. - Advertising revenue grew by 17.4% year-over-year to 7.2 billion yuan, with overseas internet revenue also increasing by 19.1% to 3.3 billion yuan, both achieving historical highs [8]. Group 5: Automotive Business - Revenue from automotive and innovative businesses was 29 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-over-year increase of 199.2% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 36.4% [9]. - The company delivered 109,000 vehicles, with an ASP of 260,000 yuan, benefiting from high ASP models like Xiaomi YU7 and SU7 Ultra [9]. - The automotive segment achieved a gross margin of 25.5% and recorded a positive operating profit of 700 million yuan for the first time in a single quarter [9].

小米集团于北京时间 2025 年 11 月 18 日晚的港股盘后发布了 2025 年第三季度财报（截止 2025 年 9 月），要点如下： 1.整体业绩：小米集团收入 1131 亿，同比增长 22.3%，其中传统业务（手机 x AIoT）收入同比仅仅增长 1.6%，本季度的增长主要来自于汽车业务的带 动。 毛利率提升至 22.9% 的相对高位，主要是受到了汽车业务占比提升带来的结构性支撑，而手机业务的毛利率受竞争加剧影响有所下滑。 2.汽车业务：小米集团本季度汽车相关收入 290 亿元，基本符合预期。其中公司本季度汽车出货量 10.9 万台，单车均价进一步提升至 26 万元。主要是受 价格相对较高的 YU7 出货增加，结构性带动汽车均价的提升。 本季度汽车业务毛利率继续提升至 25.5%，市场预期（25.6%）。不过环比上季度小幅下滑，主要是高毛利率的 SU7 Ultra 占比减少。 海豚君测算本季度小米汽车业务核心经营利润为 6.8 亿元（财报中披露的 11 亿，剔除了 4 亿元的股权激励相关费用），首次实现盈利。 3.手机：460 亿，同比下滑 3.1%，符合市场预期 458 亿。其中小米手机本季度出货量 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi's IoT business has shown consistent growth in revenue and gross margin over the past seven quarters, with a focus on innovation rather than engaging in price wars [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3, Xiaomi's IoT revenue reached 27.6 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [1] - The gross margin for the IoT segment was 23.9%, which is an increase of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Strategic Approach - Xiaomi's strategy emphasizes not participating in price wars and instead aims to stimulate user demand through innovation [1] - The company sees significant potential in expanding its home appliance exports, particularly in Southeast Asia and Europe, with plans to increase efforts in this area next year [1]

Core Insights - The overall smartphone market is experiencing a downturn, with Xiaomi's revenue for Q3 2025 at 47.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.4% [1] - The IoT segment, including computers and large appliances, saw revenue of 26.1 billion in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% but a significant quarter-on-quarter decline of 33% [1] - Internet services revenue reached 9.4 billion in Q3 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 10% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4% [1] - The automotive segment reported revenue of 29.9 billion in Q3 2025, a substantial year-on-year increase of 200% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 40% [1] - Fair value changes and other income reached 8.2 billion in Q3 2025, contributing nearly 50% to pre-tax net profit, indicating that core pre-tax net profit growth was only about 12.4% when excluding this impact [1] Financial Performance - Depreciation for Q3 2025 was 1.3 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 44% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8%, which is expected to further impact net profit as production capacity increases [2] - Domestic investors have purchased 12 billion in the last month, yet the stock price continues to decline, suggesting that the company's fundamentals are more influenced by foreign investors [2] Industry Outlook - The smartphone and internet services sectors are increasingly affected by the overall economic downturn and rising storage costs, leading to potential valuation pressure [3] - The IoT business has underperformed expectations significantly, with the impact of national subsidies being more severe than anticipated, indicating a pessimistic outlook [4] - The automotive business's valuation is heavily reliant on new orders, with traditional business performance potentially affecting overall valuation. Current market valuation stands at approximately 1.06 trillion HKD, with automotive valuation around 660 billion HKD [4] - The company may face a shift from being perceived as a tech stock to a consumer stock, which could have significant implications for investors [4]