Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see significant growth in adjusted net profit and revenue in Q3 2025, driven by strong performance in its smartphone and automotive segments, despite some challenges in the Chinese market [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue is projected to increase by 21.46% year-on-year to 112.36 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit expected to rise by 68.88% to 10.56 billion yuan, largely due to profitability in automotive and innovative businesses [1]. - Smartphone revenue is anticipated to decline by 3.49% year-on-year to 45.80 billion yuan, with a slight decrease in average selling price (ASP) to 1,065 yuan [1]. - IoT revenue is expected to grow by 5% year-on-year to 27.41 billion yuan, with an improved gross margin of 23.5% [2]. - Internet services revenue is projected to increase by 9% year-on-year to 9.23 billion yuan, maintaining a healthy gross margin of 75% [2]. - Automotive deliveries are forecasted to reach 109,000 units, generating revenue of 29.43 billion yuan, with the automotive business likely achieving its first quarterly profit of 707 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The global smartphone shipment is expected to maintain a top-three position, with a 1.8% year-on-year increase to 43.50 million units, although the Chinese market is projected to see a slight decline of 1.7% [1]. - The company is focusing on high-end models like the Xiaomi 17 series, which has shown strong initial sales performance [1]. - The automotive segment is anticipated to benefit from increased deliveries and the release of new models, contributing to sustained growth in both delivery volume and profitability [2]. Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 5.2% and 3.6% to 43.76 billion yuan and 64.02 billion yuan, respectively, due to rising storage costs [2]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.0x for 2025 and 16.9x for 2026 based on adjusted net profit [2]. - The target price has been lowered by 15% to 59.5 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 29.6% based on the sum-of-the-parts valuation method [2].

Core Viewpoint - CICC has lowered Xiaomi Group-W's (01810) adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 5.2% and 3.6% to CNY 43.757 billion and CNY 64.016 billion respectively, due to cost pressures from rising storage prices [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - CICC predicts a 68.88% year-on-year growth in adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 [2] - Expected revenue for Q3 2025 is projected to increase by 21.46% to CNY 112.357 billion, with adjusted net profit anticipated to reach CNY 10.557 billion [2] - The target price has been reduced by 15.0% to HKD 59.5, reflecting a valuation of 35.3 times and 24.1 times adjusted net profit for 2025 and 2026 respectively, indicating a potential upside of 29.6% [1] Group 2: Smartphone Business - Xiaomi's global smartphone shipments are expected to grow by 1.8% year-on-year to 43.5 million units in Q3 2025, with a slight decline in the Chinese market [2] - The average selling price (ASP) is projected to decrease slightly to CNY 1,065 due to an increase in overseas market share [2] - Smartphone revenue is expected to decline by 3.49% year-on-year to CNY 45.795 billion, with a forecasted gross margin decrease of 0.4 percentage points to 11.1% [2] Group 3: IoT and Internet Services - IoT revenue is expected to grow by 5% year-on-year to CNY 27.407 billion, with an improved gross margin of 23.5% [3] - Internet services revenue is projected to increase by 9.0% year-on-year to CNY 9.225 billion, maintaining a healthy gross margin of 75.0% [3] Group 4: Automotive Business - Q3 2025 automotive deliveries are expected to reach 109,000 units, generating revenue of CNY 29.430 billion [4] - The automotive business is anticipated to achieve its first quarterly profit of CNY 0.707 billion, driven by increased deliveries and ASP [4] - The long-term value of Xiaomi's "car-home" ecosystem is viewed positively, with expectations for continued growth in automotive deliveries and profit acceleration [4]

Group 1: Electric Vehicle Business - The first phase of Xiaomi's electric vehicle factory has upgraded its technology, increasing weekly delivery volume from 7,000-8,000 units in early August to 10,000-12,000 units since late August [1] - The second phase of the factory has a similar design capacity to the first phase and is currently awaiting final government approval [1] - Xiaomi plans to launch new models in 2026 and aims to start exporting electric vehicles to the European market in 2027, with a focus on capturing market share rather than entering the 150,000 RMB price range in the next 5-10 years [1] Group 2: Smartphone Business - Due to rising memory costs, Xiaomi expects smartphone gross margins to be 11%-12% in the second half of 2025, with pressure easing in the first half of 2026 [2] - The company is exploring upgrading smartphone specifications and considering passing costs onto consumers, while predicting a gradual exit from smartphone subsidies with limited impact due to 70% of sales being overseas [2] - Xiaomi aims to achieve a revenue target of 700 billion RMB within three years, with specific goals including increasing smartphone shipments by 10 million units to 200 million, doubling IoT revenue to 200 billion RMB, and delivering 1 million electric vehicles annually contributing 250 billion RMB in revenue [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Xiaomi Group, with a target price of HKD 75.0, indicating a potential upside of 43% from the current price of HKD 52.55 [1][3][27]. Core Views - The short-term and long-term fundamentals of Xiaomi show growth potential, driven by strong demand in the new energy vehicle sector and ongoing investments in technology such as chips and AI [1][2]. - The company is expected to achieve a smartphone shipment of 175 million units in 2025, with high-end products supporting margin growth [1][3]. - The IoT segment is projected to grow nearly 50% due to the expansion of major appliances and overseas business [1][3]. - The internet business is anticipated to maintain stable revenue growth and high margins due to a growing user base [1][3]. - The automotive segment is expected to exceed the delivery target of 350,000 units, with scale effects and high-end models improving margins [1][3]. Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 270.97 billion in 2023 to RMB 756.75 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% [3][12]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to increase significantly from RMB 19.27 billion in 2023 to RMB 71.50 billion in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of around 39% [3][12]. - The target price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 29.9x, indicating room for valuation growth [2][13]. Segment Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning target P/E ratios of 23.0x for smartphones, 27.0x for IoT, and 20.0x for internet services, along with a target price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 2.5x for electric vehicles [2][13]. - The total valuation for Xiaomi is estimated at HKD 75.0, based on projected revenues and net profits across its business segments [2][13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the company maintains strong brand momentum in the mid-term, but requires the release of automotive production capacity and the 2026 new vehicle product cycle to drive growth [1] - The company's net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised down from 471/674/731 billion to 415/555/686 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 52%/34%/24% [1] - The current stock price of 52.55 HKD corresponds to a PE ratio of 30.1/22.6/18.2 for 2025-2027 [1] Group 2 - In Q2 2025, the company's non-GAAP net profit was 10.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 75%, which was in line with expectations [1] - Mobile business revenue was 45.5 billion, with an average selling price (ASP) declining by 3% and 11% quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year respectively, primarily due to increased shipment volume in Africa and intense price competition in overseas markets [1] - IoT revenue reached 38.7 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 45% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 20%, exceeding previous expectations, mainly driven by large home appliances [1] Group 3 - The automotive and new business segment is expected to achieve profitability in a specific month or quarter in H2 2025 [2] - The company anticipates a decline in main business net profit in Q3 2025, primarily due to rising storage costs and the absence of new product launches, with a projected gross margin drop to 11% [2] - The IoT business is expected to see seasonal revenue decline to around 30 billion, while gross margin is anticipated to improve [2]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi reported a strong 2Q25 performance with total revenue of 116 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 30.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.2%, alongside an adjusted net profit growth of 75.4% to 10.8 billion RMB [1] Group 1: Automotive Business - In 2Q25, automotive deliveries reached a record high of 81,302 units, with revenue increasing by 14% quarter-on-quarter to 20.6 billion RMB [2] - The gross margin for smart electric vehicles and AI-related innovations rose from 15.4% in the same period last year to 26.4%, driven by scale effects, reduced core component costs, and a higher proportion of high-end model deliveries [2] - The company anticipates that the automotive business may achieve profitability in a single quarter or month in the second half of the year, supported by its high-end strategy [2] Group 2: Smartphone and IoT/Internet Business - The smartphone business faced challenges with revenue declining by 2.1% year-on-year to 45.5 billion RMB, and gross margin contracting to 11.5% due to intense competition in overseas markets [3] - IoT business revenue grew by 44.7% year-on-year to 38.7 billion RMB, driven by high-value smart home appliances, which saw a 66.2% increase [3] - Internet services continued stable growth with a 10.1% year-on-year revenue increase to 9.1 billion RMB, maintaining a high gross margin of 75.4% [3] Group 3: Financial Forecast and Valuation - Due to weak global smartphone demand, revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 were lowered by 2.2%/0.5%/0.2%, while net profit forecasts were raised by 9.5%/4.3%/7.8% to 44.31 billion RMB, 52.63 billion RMB, and 67.12 billion RMB respectively [3] - The target price is set at 65.4 HKD based on SOTP valuation, corresponding to a 30x PE for 2026, reflecting an adjustment from the previous target of 67.8 HKD [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The brand momentum remains strong, awaiting the release of automotive production capacity and the initiation of a new vehicle cycle [1] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards to 415 billion, 555 billion, and 686 billion CNY, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 52%, 34%, and 24% [1][4] - The current stock price of 52.55 HKD corresponds to a PE ratio of 30.1, 22.6, and 18.2 for the years 2025-2027 [1] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for 2023A is 270,970 million CNY, with a year-on-year change of -3.2% [8] - Net profit for 2023A is 19,273 million CNY, with a year-on-year change of 126.3% [8] - Gross margin for 2023A is 21.2%, and net margin is 7.1% [8] - The diluted EPS for 2025E is projected at 1.59 CNY, with a PE ratio of 30.1 [8] - The company aims to achieve profitability in its automotive and new business segments in the second half of 2025 [6]

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie has lowered Xiaomi's target price from HKD 69.32 to HKD 61 while maintaining an "Outperform" rating, but has removed the stock from its recommended list for the Asia region [1] Financial Performance - The firm anticipates a decrease in the company's profitability in the second half of the year compared to the first half [1] - It is expected that the gross margin in the third quarter may come under pressure due to intensified competition in the smartphone market, rising costs, and seasonal slowdown in IoT products [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [6][8] Core Insights - Xiaomi Group's Q2 revenue and adjusted net profit reached new highs, with revenue of RMB 116 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.5%, marking three consecutive quarters of over RMB 100 billion [8] - The adjusted profit was RMB 10.8 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's expectation of RMB 10.2 billion, and represented a year-on-year increase of 75% [8] - Key growth drivers include strong performance in IoT business, improved EV gross margins from the delivery of high-value models, and a slight offset from a decline in smartphone revenue [8] - The management reiterated the R&D expense guidance for 2025 at RMB 30 billion, with a quarter allocated to AI [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are revised to RMB 4,854 billion, RMB 5,972 billion, and RMB 7,258 billion respectively, with adjusted net profit forecasts of RMB 436 billion, RMB 512 billion, and RMB 649 billion [2][8] - The expected growth rates for revenue are 33% in 2025, 23% in 2026, and 22% in 2027 [2] - The expected earnings per share for 2025 is RMB 1.63, with a net asset return rate of 20.1% [2] Market Data - As of August 19, 2025, Xiaomi's closing price was HKD 52.40, with a market capitalization of HKD 136.37 billion [3] - The stock has a 52-week high of HKD 61.45 and a low of HKD 17.10 [3] Business Segments Performance - Smartphone revenue in Q2 was RMB 45.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, with a gross margin of 11.5% [8] - IoT revenue grew by 45% year-on-year to RMB 38.7 billion, with a gross margin of 22.5% [8] - The electric vehicle segment reported revenue of RMB 21.3 billion with a gross margin of 26.4%, and a delivery of 81,300 units [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongyin International indicates a slight downward adjustment in Xiaomi Group's Q2 revenue forecast from 123 billion to 114 billion yuan, and a reduction in adjusted net profit forecast from 10.9 billion to 10.4 billion yuan, primarily due to increased low-end product sales and rising storage costs, along with the suspension of mobile and IoT subsidies in certain domestic provinces during Q2 [1] Group 1 - Xiaomi's smartphone shipments are expected to reach 42.5 million units, showing a slight quarter-on-quarter increase, but the gross margin is anticipated to decline slightly due to a higher proportion of low-end products and increased storage costs [1] - The company is expected to further reduce losses in its smart electric vehicle and AI innovation business segments in Q2, with a potential for profitability in the second half of the year [1] - The forecast for 2025 sales has been slightly adjusted down to 400,000 units due to a delay in the production timeline of the second-phase factory, while the 2026 forecast of 700,000 units has potential for upward adjustment [1] Group 2 - Following a 16% pullback from recent highs, Xiaomi's current valuation is considered highly attractive, and the medium-term growth outlook for the company remains unchanged [1] - The rating for Xiaomi is maintained as "Buy," with a slight adjustment in the target price from 75.25 HKD to 74.4 HKD based on operational changes [1]