开年以来，国内黄金恢复交易之后，大家能明显感觉到，国际黄金其实并没有涨多少，但也算是稳步向上走，只是上涨空间暂时不大。 这时候就有粉丝问我了："大鲤，你说的加速上涨啥时候来呀？这都好几天了，还没涨呢！" 兄弟们，大家真的不要着急，一方面，基本面的利好是需 要时间发酵的，不是说有消息就立马涨。你比如说美伊核谈判这些事，到现在都没有出来什么明确结果，目前市场上也没有太多劲爆的新闻消息，但这并不 代表未来没有动静。要知道，这些矛盾都是短期内根本解决不了的，要是能轻易解决，也不至于拖到现在还没个定论，对不对？ 所以今天咱们的标题很明确：国际金价新一轮上涨即将启动，大家只需要一点耐心。我的核心观点始终没有变——黄金会继续上涨，只是需要时间蓄 势。 接下来咱们就结合今天的市场新闻消息，一步步分析，为什么我说黄金会涨，只是需要点耐心。 首先从地缘局势来看，泽连斯基最近透露，乌美俄之间的新一轮三方会谈，将在3月初举行。咱们都知道，现在已经是2月底了，距离3月初就差几天， 这个消息出来，短期内对黄金基本面还是有一定压制的。毕竟会谈在即，市场会暂时处于观望状态，金价想要快速拉升确实有点难，但这只是短期的压制， 不影响长期上涨的大 ...

行情回顾： 国际黄金周二（2月25日）震荡收涨，开盘价5150.29美元/盎司，最高价5210.56美元/盎司，最低价5120.86美元/盎司，收盘价5194.83美元/盎司。 美伊 supportuners and 金价小 e with status and stations of the status and 消息面： 地缘局势： 当地时间2月25日，美国副总统万斯表示，美方对26日在瑞士日内瓦举行的新一轮美伊间接谈判"抱有希望"，希望通过外交途径达成"良好解决方案"。万斯 称，美国立场"非常明确"，即伊朗不能拥有核武器。他表示，美国总统特朗普倾向于通过外交方式解决问题，但如有必要，也将动用美军。 据Politico报道，两位知情人士透露，特朗普的高级顾问更倾向于让以色列在美国对伊朗发动攻击之前先行作战。这些政府官员在私下里辩称，以色列的攻 击将引发伊朗的反击，从而有助于争取美国选民对美军实施打击的支持。最近的民意调查显示，美国人（尤其是共和党人）支持伊朗的政权更迭，但不愿为 此冒美国人员伤亡的风险。这意味着特朗普团队除了核计划等理由外，还在考虑攻击行动在舆论观感上的呈现方式。一位知情人士表示："政府内外 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent concerns over the US-Iran situation have led to a surge in demand for precious metals as a safe-haven investment, with significant performance noted during the Spring Festival period [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The gold ETF (518680) experienced a substantial opening jump, with intraday gains exceeding 3.6%, and the latest increase recorded at 3.62% [1] Group 2: Driving Factors - The current precious metals market rally is driven by three main factors: escalating geopolitical tensions, signs of economic stagflation in the US, and pressure on the US dollar [1] - Multiple catalytic factors are expected to continue supporting an upward trend in gold prices [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Since 2026, there has been a sustained increase in commodity investment interest, and despite experiencing high-level fluctuations, gold is anticipated to remain a preferred investment direction in 2026 due to risk aversion and improving fundamentals [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global macro environment in 2026 is characterized by increased volatility and sector rotation in the commodity market, influenced by geopolitical conflicts and changes in monetary policy, particularly from the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Market Characteristics - The primary feature of the current market is the significant price increase in commodities driven by massive liquidity released by various countries from 2021 to 2025, with the U.S. playing a key role through interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar [3]. - Since the second half of 2025, geopolitical issues have dominated commodity market trends, leading to a persistent rise in prices for precious and base metals due to countries competing for strategic resources [3][5]. Price Dynamics and Trends - In 2026, the market is expected to exhibit characteristics of significant price volatility and a notable premium on safe assets, with a clear division in sector performance [4][5]. - The core drivers of the commodity market in 2026 include the weakening of the dollar's credit, the demand surge for strategic metals due to the AI revolution, and the geopolitical risks prompting countries to secure strategic resources [5]. Currency Outlook - The Chinese yuan is anticipated to appreciate moderately with two-way fluctuations, expected to trade between 6.8 and 7 against the dollar throughout 2026 [6]. - Key supporting factors for the yuan's appreciation include a structural trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion in 2025 and a shift in global asset allocation favoring Chinese assets [6]. Asset Rotation Insights - The pricing mechanism for commodities is shifting from traditional supply-demand dynamics to macroeconomic narratives, emphasizing the importance of de-dollarization, the AI revolution, and supply chain dynamics [7]. - Both industry clients and individual traders are advised to enhance risk awareness and adapt to changes in market pricing mechanisms, focusing on investment opportunities in strategic resources [7].

上个交易日强调过，黄金以4840为防守看震荡上行，并且如果破位4950，并且站稳在此之上，黄金就是震荡，不会是极弱表现，继续上看就看5050，5120， 而实际走势，在地缘局势的影响下，黄金开盘直接上涨，并且在优盘突破4950，在美盘最高上涨至5025，实现了山海的预期，所以，如果你在周三觉得黄金 跌倒4840后会延续弱势，那就大错特错，其实很明显黄金还是一个震荡走势。包括今天也一样，暂时黄金没有站稳5120之上就难以延续强势，所以，黄金还 是一个震荡状态，下方的支撑预计在4950，上方逐步看5050，5120得失。当然，由于大趋势是多头不变，所以山海还是看好黄金会向上突破，并且站稳5120 之上，能走出一个多头趋势的延续性，因此，今天依旧是等待机会下个上布局。今天不破5050短线看，破位5050可以留轻仓看一下下周的表现，下周可能就 不会给你震荡的相对低点位置了。 白银波动不大，虽然有所反弹，但没有延续力度，目前收盘在78附近，相对来讲还是弱势，但是维持前期的观点不变，只要在75之下就是布局北上的机会， 所以，本周的二次回落还是上车的机会，不要担心白银会跌多少，你只需要关注后市能涨多少，山海的想法就是拿着底 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are experiencing a downward trend due to geopolitical negotiation expectations and market closures, indicating short-term volatility and adjustment pressure [1][9]. Market Performance - Gold opened at $5042.31 per ounce, reaching a daily high before declining, with a low of $4965.63 and closing at $4993.60, resulting in a daily fluctuation of $76.68 and a decrease of $48.71, or 0.97% [3][11]. - The market anticipates continued downward pressure on gold prices, influenced by the recent recovery of the US dollar index [3][11]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming data to watch includes the February New York Fed Manufacturing Index and the NAHB Housing Market Index, with mixed market expectations [3][11]. - Federal Reserve officials are expected to speak on artificial intelligence and its impact on the job market, which may influence market sentiment [3][11]. Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding US-Iran negotiations and military movements, are contributing to uncertainty in gold demand [6][13]. - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine negotiations may also heighten geopolitical risk, potentially supporting gold prices [6][13]. Technical Analysis - Monthly analysis indicates that gold prices are maintaining a bullish outlook despite recent fluctuations, with support expected at the 30-day and 60-day moving averages [8][14]. - Weekly analysis shows initial support at the 5-week moving average of $4960, with further support at the 10-week moving average of $4720 [15]. - Daily charts suggest a potential return to the 30-day or 60-day moving average support levels, with resistance at the 5-day moving average [15][16]. Trading Strategy - Suggested trading strategy includes monitoring support levels around $4925 or $4880 for gold, and resistance levels at $5000 or $5045 [16].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and a slight decline, currently reported at $4989.28 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.59% [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The international gold market opened at $5019.14 per ounce, reaching a high of $5030.62 and a low of $4954.42 during the trading session [1] - Last week, gold prices opened at $4987.98 per ounce, peaked at $5119.05 on Wednesday, and then fell to a low of $4878.77 on Thursday before rebounding to close at $5042.63, marking a weekly increase of $81.77 or 1.65% [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Geopolitical tensions initially drove gold prices higher, but comments from Federal Reserve officials downplaying the urgency of interest rate cuts and a White House official refuting employment concerns led to a temporary recovery in prices [1] - The support from central bank purchases and geopolitical factors, along with President Trump's push for the Fed to lower rates to "the lowest in the world," contributed to the rebound in gold prices [1] - The market reacted to AI-related fears that caused a sell-off in tech stocks, triggering liquidity issues and leading traders to sell metals to cover stock losses, which resulted in a sharp drop in gold prices [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The current outlook suggests that gold prices may experience short-term adjustments, but the overall bullish trend remains intact due to the recent U.S. CPI report, which has raised expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Fed [2] - The ongoing central bank purchases of gold are expected to support long-term bullish sentiment, while geopolitical uncertainties continue to create opportunities for bullish entries [2] - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4990 and $4930, with resistance levels at $5100 and $5150 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced slight gains last week, maintaining an upward trend above the 5-week moving average, indicating a bullish outlook for the future [1][3]. Price Movement - Gold opened the week at $4987.98 per ounce, reached a weekly high of $5119.05 on Wednesday, dipped to a low of $4878.77 on Thursday, and closed at $5042.63 on Friday, resulting in a weekly increase of $81.77 or 1.65% from the previous week's closing price of $4960.86 [1][3]. Influencing Factors - Geopolitical tensions initially drove gold prices higher, but comments from Federal Reserve officials downplaying the urgency of interest rate cuts and a White House official refuting employment concerns led to fluctuations in gold prices [3][5]. - The market's reaction to the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which was below expectations, alleviated inflation concerns and reinforced expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5][7]. Technical Analysis - On a monthly basis, gold prices rebounded after touching a support level, remaining within a new bullish market space and above the 5-month moving average, suggesting a continued bullish outlook [7]. - Weekly analysis indicates that gold prices maintained their upward trend despite reduced momentum and volatility, with expectations for new highs supported by the 5-week moving average [7][9]. - Daily charts show that while the rebound momentum has slowed, the overall trend remains upward, with key support levels identified at $4990 and $4930, and resistance levels at $5100 and $5150 [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the European shipping index futures prices, exceeding 6%, is attributed to geopolitical tensions and short sellers exiting the market, despite no significant changes in the fundamentals [2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The increase in European shipping futures is primarily driven by geopolitical factors, particularly the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which has heightened market volatility [2][4]. - Analysts note that the shipping companies have not yet implemented the previously announced price increases for March, indicating a potential disconnect between market expectations and actual pricing [2][4]. - The market is currently experiencing a seasonal downturn in shipping volumes post-Chinese New Year, which is expected to exert downward pressure on spot freight rates [3][4]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the upcoming months may see continued volatility in European shipping futures due to potential "black swan" events related to geopolitical and tariff policy changes, as well as adverse weather conditions affecting shipping schedules [3]. - The influx of new ships entering the market could lead to a more relaxed supply-demand balance, further pressuring freight rates in the medium to long term [3][4]. - The overall sentiment indicates that while there may be short-term support for freight rates due to anticipated economic improvements, the long-term outlook remains cautious due to the expected increase in shipping capacity and the resumption of operations in the Red Sea [4].

Group 1: U.S. Economic Overview - U.S. retail sales unexpectedly stagnated in December 2025, with the control group retail sales showing a negative month-on-month growth, indicating high living costs suppressing consumption among low- and middle-income groups[1] - Non-farm employment rebounded unexpectedly, reversing the weak trend seen at the end of 2025, with private sector jobs supported mainly by education and healthcare, while financial and information sectors continued to decline due to AI substitution effects[1] - The unemployment rate decreased despite an increase in labor participation rate, with a slight rise in hourly wage growth, although the overall employment data may still be overestimated[1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Conditions - In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) month-on-month growth remained flat, with food prices slowing down but pork prices turning positive; core CPI continued to rise due to the upcoming Spring Festival[3] - Producer Price Index (PPI) showed an upward trend, with price changes in crude oil and non-ferrous metals causing a divergence in PPI growth across industries, while "anti-involution" policies positively impacted sectors like photovoltaics and lithium batteries[3] - Real estate transactions remained at a low point, with wholesale agricultural prices declining, and prices for steel and cement slightly decreasing, while upstream prices for coking coal and coking fell, and prices for non-ferrous metals and gold generally declined[3]