Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and closed lower on September 18, with an opening price of $3684.11 per ounce, a high of $3704.51, a low of $3627.92, and a closing price of $3641.27 [1] Economic Data - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 13 was reported at 231,000, lower than the market expectation of 240,000 and down from the previous week's 263,000 [2] - This marks the largest decline in initial claims in nearly four years, indicating that companies are still inclined to retain employees despite economic uncertainties [2] - However, signs of labor market weakness are emerging, with a significant slowdown in job growth and a cooling in both labor supply and demand [2] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed a downward trend, with the lowest point reaching $3627 during the trading session, followed by a slight recovery to close at $3643 [8] - The daily chart indicates a small bearish candle, suggesting a potential top formation, while the short-term indicators are showing a downward trend [8] - The hourly chart reflects a bearish sentiment, with prices stabilizing below key moving averages, indicating a cautious trading approach [8] Trading Strategy - For aggressive traders, a buy position can be initiated at $2627 with a stop loss of 3-5 points and a profit target above $3640 [9] - For conservative traders, a buy position can be initiated at $3612 with similar stop loss and profit target parameters [10] - For short positions, aggressive entry can be at $3658 with a stop loss of 3-5 points and a target below $3647, while a more conservative entry can be at $3668 with a target below $3655 [10]

Group 1 - The current gold market is influenced by geopolitical factors and the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, leading to a bullish trend in gold prices, with significant increases observed on Monday and Tuesday [2][4] - Gold prices have recently surpassed the 3700 mark for the first time, indicating a strong upward trend, although the market is expected to experience fluctuations and pullbacks, providing opportunities for buying [2][4] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, which is expected to have a substantial impact on both gold and silver markets, necessitating careful risk management [2][4] Group 2 - The trading strategy for the Asian and European sessions is to focus on buying during pullbacks, with key support levels identified at 3685 and 3675, while aiming for targets around 3710 and potentially 3750 [4][5] - The market sentiment suggests that after the Federal Reserve's decision, there may be a significant downward adjustment in gold prices, with a critical support level at 3620 to watch for potential changes in the current bullish trend [5][6] - In the silver market, a bullish outlook is maintained, with a focus on buying near the 42 support level, while caution is advised against chasing prices higher due to potential volatility [6][7] Group 3 - The oil market has shown positive momentum, with recent price increases reaching around 64.5, and further upward potential is anticipated, with key resistance levels at 66 [7] - Domestic fuel prices have also risen, with targets set at 2850 and 3000, indicating a continued bullish trend, although caution against chasing prices is advised [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming adjustments in gasoline and diesel prices in China, highlighting the potential for price stagnation due to current market conditions and international oil price trends [1][3][5]. Price Adjustment Summary - In September 2025, two price adjustments for gasoline and diesel are planned, with the first adjustment on September 9 resulting in a price increase of 40 yuan per ton, which was insufficient to trigger a price change [1][3]. - The second adjustment is scheduled for September 23, with expectations that prices may not decrease due to strong international oil prices, leading to a potential "double stagnation" in September [1][5]. Market Trends Summary - In the first half of 2025, there were 12 price adjustments resulting in 5 decreases and 5 increases, with a total drop of 330 yuan per ton for gasoline and 315 yuan per ton for diesel, translating to a decrease of over 0.26 yuan per liter [3]. - The second half of 2025 has seen a trend of "initial increases followed by declines," with recent adjustments resulting in a total decrease of 75 yuan per ton, equating to approximately 0.07 yuan per liter [3]. Current Market Conditions - As of September 16, 2025, the average price of WTI crude oil was 63.3 USD per barrel, and Brent crude was 67.44 USD per barrel, with a current crude oil price change rate of -1.06% [3]. - The market sentiment remains bullish despite concerns over weak energy demand, influenced by geopolitical tensions and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may support international oil prices [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold maintains a strong bullish trend, with a focus on a potential upward movement towards 3710, but trading should be approached cautiously by buying on dips [2][3] - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to geopolitical instability, increased demand for safe-haven assets, a weaker US dollar, and declining US Treasury yields [2] - The market is advised to monitor the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, as a potential 25 basis point cut could lead to a medium-term decline in gold prices [2][3] Group 2 - Silver has shown an upward trend, reaching around 42.7, with potential resistance at 43.2, but traders are advised to avoid chasing highs and wait for a pullback to around 42 for effective buying opportunities [4] - The domestic gold market, particularly the Shanghai gold contract, has also seen upward movement, with a recommendation to buy on dips around 830 and 820 [3] - The crude oil market is advised to maintain a bullish stance, with support at 62.5 and potential upward targets at 64 and 66 [4][5] Group 3 - Domestic fuel oil has shown a bullish trend, with a recent high of 2820, and further upward movement is anticipated, with a key resistance level at 2850 [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold and silver are both rated ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The precious metals market is experiencing oscillations. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain high, and the prospect of a cease - fire agreement between Russia and Ukraine is fading. US inflation data is in line with market expectations, and the combination of moderate inflation and a cooling labor market has strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts. The international gold price has confirmed a breakthrough of the upper limit of the four - month oscillation range, and silver has also opened up upward space. It is recommended to maintain long - position participation. However, if the interest rate cut meets expectations, be vigilant against a phased adjustment [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Information Geopolitical Situation - Israel conducted an air strike on the capital of Qatar last week, targeting senior Hamas leaders, and the Middle East geopolitical situation remains tense. Trump reiterated his willingness to impose sanctions on Russia and urged other countries to follow suit, making the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement seem more distant. Hamas has suspended negotiations with Israel regarding a cease - fire in the Gaza Strip and the exchange of detainees [1][2] Economic Data - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US CPI in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations and slightly up from the previous value of 2.7%. The month - on - month increase was 0.4%, slightly higher than the expected 0.3% and the previous value of 0.2%. The core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month, both in line with expectations and the previous value. After the non - farm payrolls showed a cooling labor market, the number of initial jobless claims last week rose to 263,000, the highest in nearly four years [1] Market Expectations - The combination of moderate inflation and a cooling labor market has further strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts. The market has almost fully priced in three consecutive interest rate cuts within the year. This week, focus on the Fed's interest rate cut amplitude and Powell's speech for guidance on the future path. If the interest rate cut meets expectations, beware of a phased "buy the rumor, sell the news" adjustment [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump announced a 50% tariff on India, which led India to propose zero tariffs on U.S. goods, but Trump stated it was too late [1] - Trump plans to appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court regarding the global tariff case, warning of unprecedented shocks if he loses [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is set to conduct interviews for candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair starting Friday, with meetings continuing into next week [1] Group 2 - The gold market has shown strong performance, with COMEX gold futures opening above $3600, closing at $3601.00 per ounce, and reaching a new high of $3616.9 [2] - International spot gold rose by 1.72%, stabilizing above $3500, and has increased approximately 35% this year, equating to a rise of about $900 per ounce [4] - Geopolitical tensions and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts have driven gold prices higher, with significant attention on upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data [5] Group 3 - The overall outlook for gold remains bullish, with expectations of a breakout as it approaches key resistance levels [7] - Current trading strategies suggest caution against chasing prices after significant upward movements, with potential pullback points identified [9] - Silver has reached a 14-year high, indicating a bullish trend, but short-term trading should be approached with caution due to resistance levels [11]

Group 1: Energy - Brent crude oil's November contract rose 1.04% overnight, while the US market was closed for Labor Day. The medium - term supply - demand of crude oil is loose, but short - term fund net long positions at a low level make oil prices sensitive to geopolitical positives. Consider shorting SC's November contract on rallies [1]. - Gold is boosted by the rising expectation of Fed rate cuts and concerns about Fed independence. International gold prices are expected to hit a new record high. Hold long positions and focus on the US non - farm payrolls data on Friday [2]. - Copper prices fell overnight. The probability of copper prices breaking through the 80,000 - yuan mark and expanding the rally in the short - term is increasing. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA5 moving average and pay attention to the increase in the premium of call options with a strike price of 82,000 yuan for the 2510 contract [3]. - Aluminum prices fluctuated overnight. The downstream start - up rate has been rising seasonally for four weeks, and inventory is likely to be low this year. However, the inventory of aluminum ingots and bars increased slightly at the beginning of the week. The short - term trend of Shanghai aluminum is oscillatory, with resistance at the 21,000 - yuan area [4]. - Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum. The spot price of Baotai remains at 20,300 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the expected tax policy adjustment increases enterprise costs. The cross - variety spread between the spot and Shanghai aluminum is likely to narrow further [5]. - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, with rising industry inventory and Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants. Supply surplus is emerging, and the northwest tender price has dropped significantly. Alumina is in a weak position, but it is not expected to fall deeply after breaking below the cost of high - cost production capacity [6]. - Zinc prices are under pressure as SMM zinc social inventory continues to rise to 146,300 tons. In September, smelter maintenance will increase, and zinc ingot output is expected to decrease month - on - month. Shanghai zinc has strong support at the 22,000 - yuan mark. Consider shorting on rebounds in the medium - term when the price reaches the 23,000 - 23,500 - yuan range [7]. - The supply and demand of aluminum are both weak, and the SMM aluminum social inventory remains at 67,100 tons. In September, the maintenance of primary and recycled aluminum smelters increases, reducing supply pressure. Terminal consumption shows no improvement. Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 17,300 yuan [8]. - Nickel prices rebounded sharply overnight. The Fed rate cut expectation may imply greater overseas economic pressure. Concerns about political unrest in Indonesia may push up the price of the nickel industry chain. Temporarily view nickel as oscillatory [9]. - Tin prices showed a positive trend after strong two - way fluctuations. The inventory of LME Singapore warehouses has decreased significantly. There is a shortage of concentrate in the domestic tin market. Hold short - term long positions at low levels based on 271,000 yuan, and do not chase the rise [10]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices are in a weak oscillation. The total market inventory decreased slightly by 400 tons to 141,000 tons. Adopt a bullish view in the short - term and control risks [11]. - Industrial silicon futures rose slightly, driven by the sentiment of polysilicon. In September, the supply surplus is expected to intensify. Temporarily observe the effectiveness of the support at 8,300 yuan/ton. If it is effectively broken, consider shorting lightly [12]. - Polysilicon futures rose significantly, mainly due to a leading polysilicon enterprise revealing details of a "industry restructuring plan". The spot price of polysilicon rod - shaped silicon rose to 55,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the previous policy - expected resistance level of 53,000 yuan/ton and control positions [13]. Group 2: Metals - Steel prices continued to decline slightly overnight. The apparent demand for rebar improved month - on - month, production increased, and inventory continued to accumulate. For hot - rolled coils, both demand and production declined slightly, and inventory also continued to accumulate. The market is under short - term pressure, and the fluctuation may intensify [14]. - Iron ore prices oscillated overnight, and the basis has remained low recently. Global iron ore shipments increased significantly month - on - month, hitting a new high this year. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [15]. - Coke prices rebounded at the end of the session. The first round of coke price cuts was partially implemented. The overall inventory of coke decreased slightly. The price is under short - term pressure and has high volatility [16]. - Coking coal prices mainly declined during the session and rebounded at the end. The total inventory of coking coal decreased month - on - month. The price is under short - term pressure and has high volatility [17]. - Ferrosilicon manganese prices oscillated downward and rebounded at the end, driven by black - series varieties. The weekly output of ferrosilicon manganese continued to increase, and the inventory has not yet accumulated. Observe the support strength at the previous low [18]. - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated downward and rebounded at the end, driven by black - series varieties. The supply of ferrosilicon has been increasing significantly, and the inventory has decreased slightly [19]. Group 3: Shipping - The spot freight rate of the container shipping index (European line) is still in a downward channel. The main shipping companies lowered their quotes for the second week of September by about $200/FEU. The market is under pressure, and the focus this week is on the shipping companies' empty - sailing plans for the National Day Golden Week [20]. Group 4: Fuels and Chemicals - By the end of July, Singapore's marine fuel sales decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and China's bonded marine fuel bunkering demand decreased by 1% year - on - year. Under the lack of positive support from the cost side and the fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil, LU is under downward pressure, while FU is relatively stronger due to geopolitical premiums [21]. - Asphalt futures rose against the trend. The factory and social inventories continued to decline. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. Consider a spread strategy of going long on the cracking spread between BU and SC's October contract [22]. - The 9 - month CP of liquefied petroleum gas remained stable. After the gas off - season, it showed certain resilience. The short - term futures market is strong in the near - term and weak in the far - term [23]. - Urea's daily output decreased slightly but remained high year - on - year. The inventory of urea production enterprises continued to rise. Pay attention to the market sentiment before and after India's tender opening [24]. - Methanol's autumn maintenance is coming to an end, and domestic supply is increasing. The market is expected to be strong in the future [25]. - Pure benzene prices continued to be weak, breaking below 6,000 yuan/ton overnight. There is an expectation of supply - demand improvement in the third quarter, but the current demand is weak [26]. - Styrene's trend is weak. The supply - demand contradiction is increasing, and the fundamentals are weak [27]. - For polypropylene, plastics, and propylene: The inventory pressure of propylene production enterprises is controllable. The supply pressure of polyethylene is increasing, and the fundamentals of polypropylene are weak [28]. - PVC is weak. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak. The price of caustic soda is relatively firm, but it is not expected to rise or fall significantly [29]. - PX and PTA oscillated. The demand is improving, but the actual improvement is limited. Pay attention to the actual operation of the devices, the direction of oil prices, and the pace of polyester load increase [30]. - Ethylene glycol prices fell back to the 4,400 - yuan/ton mark overnight. It is expected to oscillate within a range [31]. - Short - fiber's supply - demand is stable, and the price mainly follows the cost. For bottle - grade polyester chips, the long - term over - capacity is a pressure. Consider a long position in short - fiber in the medium - term if the demand improves [32]. Group 5: Building Materials - Glass prices continued to be weak. The spot price decline has narrowed, and the glass factory's inventory has decreased. The price is expected to have limited downward space, and consider a long position near the coal cost [33]. - For 20 - standard - rubber, natural rubber, and butadiene rubber: The supply of rubber is increasing, and the demand expectation is weakening. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [34]. - Soda ash prices continued to decline. The long - term supply is under high pressure, and consider shorting on rallies [35]. Group 6: Agricultural Products - For soybeans and soybean meal: The international oil - strong and meal - weak situation may continue. There may be a supply gap in domestic soybeans in the first quarter of next year. The market may oscillate in the short - term and is cautiously bullish in the medium - long - term [36]. - For soybean oil and palm oil: Both showed a rebound trend overnight. Pay attention to the Sino - US trade situation and the palm oil production cycle. Consider going long on dips in the long - term [37]. - For rapeseed and rapeseed oil: The global rapeseed supply will be in a stage of relaxation. The domestic rapeseed supply - demand is expected to be in a tight - balance state. The futures may stabilize in the short - term [38]. - For domestic soybeans: The price rebounded after digesting the negatives. The supply of new domestic soybeans is expected to increase in September. Pay attention to the opening price of new - season soybeans [39]. - Corn prices rose with increased positions overnight. New - season corn production is expected to be good. The futures may continue to be weak at the bottom after the enthusiasm for new - grain procurement fades [40]. - For live pigs: The futures price opened high and closed low. The pig price is under downward pressure, and pay attention to the policy and supply release rhythm [41]. - For eggs: The futures price increased in positions. There is a possibility of accelerating the elimination of old hens. Consider going long on the far - month contracts for next year's first half [42]. - For cotton: US cotton oscillated weakly. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate, with strong support below and limited upside space in the short - term. Consider buying on dips [43]. - For sugar: US sugar oscillated. The domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate [44]. - For apples: The futures price oscillated at a high level. The short - term price may continue to rise, but there is a lack of long - term supply - side positives. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [45]. - For timber: The futures price oscillated. The domestic supply is expected to remain low. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [46]. - For pulp: The futures price rose slightly. The port inventory is high, and the demand is average. Adopt a wait - and - see or range - trading strategy [47]. Group 7: Financials - The stock market oscillated strongly, and the ChiNext Index was relatively strong. Increase the allocation of the technology - growth sector, and also pay attention to opportunities in the consumption and cyclical sectors [48]. - Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The yield curve is expected to steepen [49].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current gold price has risen over 1% to reach $3489, marking a new high since April 22, and is approaching the critical $3500 level [2] - The surge in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, primarily the increasing market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [2][3] - The recent upward trend in gold is supported by geopolitical tensions and signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell regarding potential rate cuts [3][5] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold has shown a strong upward movement, breaking through key resistance levels of $3420-30, $3440, and $3452, with a target of $3500 [5] - The current support level is identified at $3440, and as long as this level holds, the upward trend is expected to continue [5] - If gold surpasses $3500, investors should monitor the next resistance levels at $3530 and $3580, which could also serve as potential reversal points [5] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices are stable, with Brent crude at $67.36 and WTI at $63.88, amid a quiet trading session due to a U.S. bank holiday [6] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to disruptions in Russian oil exports, with weekly shipments dropping to a four-week low of 2.72 million barrels per day [6] - The oil market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between geopolitical support and downward pressure from record U.S. production and weak economic conditions in Asia [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The oil market is showing a narrow trading range with a downward bias, as indicated by the MACD indicator suggesting weakening downward momentum [7] - Short-term oil price movements are expected to remain within a range of $65.70 to $63.00, with a focus on potential rebounds and corrections [7] - The recommended trading strategy is to buy on dips and sell on rebounds, with key resistance at $66.0-67.0 and support at $63.0-62.0 [7]

Market Overview - The A-share market shows a positive trend, with the ChiNext index leading the charge, rising by 2.29% [1] - Major indices closed in the green, with the ChiNext performing particularly well, while the Shanghai Composite Index showed a more stable increase [3] - Total trading volume decreased by over 500 billion compared to the previous day, indicating a more cautious and selective approach from investors [3] Sector Performance - Gold stocks experienced significant gains, with major players like Zhongjin Gold and Hunan Gold hitting the daily limit, driven by international gold prices surpassing 3,480 USD [3] - The innovative drug sector also saw a surge, with stocks like Maiwei Bio and Lifang Pharmaceutical hitting the daily limit, suggesting new market expectations regarding policies or industry fundamentals [3] - The technology sector, particularly CPO stocks, remained strong, with companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Tianfu Communication reaching historical highs, supported by the growing demand for AI and computing power [3] Weak Sectors - Insurance, securities, and military sectors showed weak performance, with brokerage stocks collectively retreating and companies like China Satellite and China Satcom experiencing notable declines [4] - The performance of these sectors is closely tied to market sentiment and policy direction, indicating that short-term corrections are not unexpected [4] Investment Strategy - The focus should be on identifying sectors with genuine performance, logic, and growth potential rather than chasing daily market trends [4] - Gold is viewed through the lens of long-term cycles, innovative drugs are assessed for real turning points, and technology is evaluated based on hard demand [4]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic oil prices have been adjusted downward, with gasoline and diesel prices reduced by 180 yuan and 175 yuan per ton respectively, effective from August 26, 2025, due to fluctuations in international oil prices [2][3][4]. Price Adjustment Details - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a reduction in domestic gasoline and diesel prices based on the average price of crude oil over the previous ten working days, with a reference crude oil price of $65.07 per barrel and a change rate of -3.90% [3][4]. - This marks the seventh price reduction in 2025, contributing to a total of 17 adjustments this year, with the overall trend being "six increases, seven decreases, and four suspensions" [3][4]. Impact on Consumers - Following the price adjustment, the retail price for 92-octane gasoline is expected to be between 7.2 and 7.3 yuan per liter, while diesel prices will range from 6.8 to 7 yuan per liter [4]. - For an average private car with a 50L fuel tank, filling up will cost approximately 7 yuan less, and for heavy-duty trucks, the fuel cost per 100 kilometers will decrease by about 6 yuan [4]. International Oil Market Dynamics - The international oil market has experienced volatility, with OPEC+ maintaining a firm stance on production increases, leading to a projected record U.S. oil production of 13.41 million barrels per day in 2025 [5][6]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a significant oversupply in the global oil market, with an increase in global oil supply by 2.5 million barrels per day this year and 1.9 million barrels per day next year [5][6]. Future Price Expectations - Analysts predict a high probability of price increases in the next round of domestic oil price adjustments, with an expected increase of 140 yuan per ton based on current oil prices [8]. - The upcoming price adjustment window is set for September 9, 2025, with initial estimates suggesting a potential increase of 130 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel [8].